AFC have published the entry manual for ACL and ACC. Going by the letter of the regulations, India and Maldives would be moved to the West, however I stick by my original approach and I expect Tajikistan to be moved to the East.
Despite being 6th in the East, Hong Kong lost their direct groups stage spot because of paragraph 11.12 on page 21 of the entry manual.
If an eligible club refuses to enter an AFC Competition, despite being licensed and meeting the sporting criteria, the slot allocated to its MA shall be annulled, regardless of whether it is a direct slot or playoff slot.
As you perhaps know, vacant group stage slots are awarded not to the next best ranked MA, but to the highest MA that hasn't been allocated 3 direct group stage slots.
There have been two very costly draws recently.
First China PR vs. Qatar. Assuming Iraqi clubs don't get the AFC license, the third ranked MA in the West zone would get that direct slot. With a win in China, Qatar would have been 3rd, with El Jaish going to the group stage. As Qatar failed to get the 3 points, the direct slot will be allocated to Iran's Persepolis.
Same goes for Thailand vs. Australia. Hong Kong's direct slot will be going to China's Shanghai SIPG, but it would have been Brisbane Roar's had the Socceroos prevailed in Bangkok.
I don't understand the articles claiming AFF Championship games will count towards the FIFA ranking for the first time. This is incorrect. These games have always been included in the calculation (well, at least since I've started computing the ranking).
See the previous update.
Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals.
FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.
FIFA ranking points are final for all teams except Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and Philippines.
Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014 Rank
|2||United Arab Emirates||88.192||20.213||67.978||7|
Philippines and Myanmar fighting for the last top 24 spot. Over 10000 simulations: Myanmar 55.29%, Philippines 44.71%. Philippines will get it only if they win vs. Singapore, while Myanmar lose vs. Vietnam.
Malaysia could still overtake Vietnam, depending on both teams performance in their opening AFF Championship matches. Based on the current setup, it will make the difference between playing home or away in the second preliminary round, as the champions of the MA ranked 7th in the East will host the champions of the MA ranked 8th. Over 10000 simulations: Vietnam 67.78%, Malaysia 32.22%.
Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region.
Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) - Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Fateh (Saudi Arabia) - Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran) - Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) - Uzbekistan 2
Preliminary round 1
 Istiklol (Tajikistan) vs. Yadanarbon (Myanmar)
Preliminary round 2
 Sukhothai (Thailand) vs. Match  winners
 Bangkok United (Thailand) vs. Indonesia 1
 Kitchee (Hong Kong) vs. Bengaluru FC (India)
 Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam) vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)
Jeju United (Korea Republic) vs. Match  winners
Kawasaki Frontale / Kashima Antlers (Japan) vs. Match  winners
Shanghai Shenhua (China PR) vs. Match  winners
Brisbane Roar (Australia) vs. Match  winners