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Friday, November 18, 2016

AFC MA Ranking update (18 November 2016)

We're almost there. 6 matches left - two in the AFC Champions League and the first four games of the AFF Championship.

AFC have published the entry manual for ACL and ACC. Going by the letter of the regulations, India and Maldives would be moved to the West, however I stick by my original approach and I expect Tajikistan to be moved to the East.



Despite being 6th in the East, Hong Kong lost their direct groups stage spot because of paragraph 11.12 on page 21 of the entry manual.

If an eligible club refuses to enter an AFC Competition, despite being licensed and meeting the sporting criteria, the slot allocated to its MA shall be annulled, regardless of whether it is a direct slot or playoff slot.

As you perhaps know, vacant group stage slots are awarded not to the next best ranked MA, but to the highest MA that hasn't been allocated 3 direct group stage slots.

There have been two very costly draws recently.

First China PR vs. Qatar. Assuming Iraqi clubs don't get the AFC license, the third ranked MA in the West zone would get that direct slot. With a win in China, Qatar would have been 3rd, with El Jaish going to the group stage. As Qatar failed to get the 3 points, the direct slot will be allocated to Iran's Persepolis.

Same goes for Thailand vs. Australia. Hong Kong's direct slot will be going to China's Shanghai SIPG, but it would have been Brisbane Roar's had the Socceroos prevailed in Bangkok.

I don't understand the articles claiming AFF Championship games will count towards the FIFA ranking for the first time. This is incorrect. These games have always been included in the calculation (well, at least since I've started computing the ranking).

See the previous update.

Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals.

FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.

FIFA ranking points are final for all teams except Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and Philippines.

Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014  Rank

1 Korea Republic 96.311 26.311 70.000 1
2 United Arab Emirates 88.192 20.213 67.978 7
3 Saudi Arabia 85.600 22.171 63.430 2
4 Iran 79.615 30.000 49.615 3
5 Qatar 79.078 15.395 63.682 9
6 Japan 76.551 24.241 52.310 4
7 China PR 73.540 15.922 57.617 8
8 Australia 73.302 23.940 49.362 6
9 Uzbekistan 57.394 21.004 36.390 5
10 Iraq 37.626 10.502 27.124 10
11 Kuwait 36.919 4.404 32.515 11
12 Syria 35.060 13.664 21.396 19
13 Thailand 34.676 8.394 26.282 13
14 Hong Kong 32.145 7.716 24.428 20
15 Jordan 31.493 11.782 19.711 12
16 Vietnam 28.965 8.243 20.722 15
17 Malaysia 28.782 5.533 23.249 22
18 India 28.216 8.168 20.048 23
19 Bahrain 27.607 9.749 17.858 16
20 Lebanon 22.295 6.964 15.331 17
21 Indonesia 20.611 3.764 16.847 18
22 Oman 19.447 10.013 9.434 14
23 Tajikistan 18.466 8.695 9.771 28
24 Myanmar 17.398 4.931 12.467 21
25 Philippines 17.054 10.652 6.402 27
26 Maldives 15.477 6.211 9.266 26
27 Singapore 13.561 4.969 8.592 24
28 Palestine 11.894 8.356 3.538 25
29 Turkmenistan 11.572 7.528 4.043 30
30 Korea DPR 10.314 10.314 0.000 31
31 Kyrgyzstan 10.312 9.975 0.337 32
32 Afghanistan 7.114 7.114 0.000 29
33 Yemen 6.926 6.926 0.000 35
34 Laos 6.915 4.893 2.022 33
35 Chinese Taipei 5.609 5.609 0.000 43
36 Cambodia 4.856 4.856 0.000 42
37 Bangladesh 4.173 3.162 1.011 37
38 Bhutan 3.877 3.877 0.000 46
39 Nepal 3.388 3.388 0.000 38
40 Macau 3.087 3.087 0.000 41
41 Guam 3.049 3.049 0.000 34
42 Brunei Darussalam 2.785 2.785 0.000 45
43 Timor-Leste 2.409 2.409 0.000 39
44 Sri Lanka 1.656 1.656 0.000 36
45 Pakistan 1.506 1.506 0.000 39
46 Mongolia 1.430 1.430 0.000 44

Philippines and Myanmar fighting for the last top 24 spot. Over 10000 simulations: Myanmar 55.29%, Philippines 44.71%. Philippines will get it only if they win vs. Singapore, while Myanmar lose vs. Vietnam.

Malaysia could still overtake Vietnam, depending on both teams performance in their opening AFF Championship matches. Based on the current setup, it will make the difference between playing home or away in the second preliminary round, as the champions of the MA ranked 7th in the East will host the champions of the MA ranked 8th. Over 10000 simulations: Vietnam 67.78%, Malaysia 32.22%.

Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region.

West

Matches

Play-off round

Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) - Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Fateh (Saudi Arabia) - Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran) - Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) - Uzbekistan 2

East

Matches

Preliminary round 1

[1] Istiklol (Tajikistan) vs. Yadanarbon (Myanmar)

Preliminary round 2

[2] Sukhothai (Thailand) vs. Match [1] winners
[3] Bangkok United (Thailand) vs. Indonesia 1
[4] Kitchee (Hong Kong) vs. Bengaluru FC (India)
[5] Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam) vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)

Play-off round

Jeju United (Korea Republic) vs. Match [5] winners
Kawasaki Frontale / Kashima Antlers (Japan) vs. Match [4] winners
Shanghai Shenhua (China PR) vs. Match [3] winners
Brisbane Roar (Australia) vs. Match [2] winners

1 comment:

  1. AFC announced changes to the future calculations for AFC club tournaments. http://www.the-afc.com/competitions-division/afc-competitions-committee-recommends-new-afc-cup-format

    ReplyDelete