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Friday, June 24, 2016

FIFA Ranking: July 2016 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

Probable July 2016 rank - Team - Probable July 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
  
1 Argentina 1624 0 121
2 Belgium 1474 0 90
3 Germany 1358 1 48
4 Colombia 1297 -1 -31
5 Chile 1276 0 -17
6 Spain 1274 0 7
7 France 1270 10 345
8 England 1165 3 96
9 Brazil 1156 -2 -101
10 Croatia 1137 17 295
11 Uruguay 1130 -2 -20
12 Portugal 1055 -4 -126
13 Mexico 1044 3 102
14 Italy 1038 -2 56
15 Poland 1007 12 165
16 Wales 1006 10 160
17 Ecuador 1002 -4 24
18 Switzerland 957 -3 9
19 Hungary 915 1 29
19 Turkey 915 -1 -4
21 USA 880 10 77
22 Austria 875 -12 -202
23 Slovakia 867 1 15
24 Northern Ireland 862 1 11
25 Romania 856 -3 -22
26 Netherlands 848 -12 -111
27 Costa Rica 840 -4 -13
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 813 -8 -73
29 Ukraine 801 -10 -93
30 Republic of Ireland 800 3 32
31 Iceland 796 3 45
32 Algeria 781 0 -5
33 Czech Republic 768 -3 -47
34 Peru 765 14 142
35 Côte d'Ivoire 751 1 19
36 Ghana 749 1 21
37 Albania 739 5 72
38 Russia 728 -9 -100
39 Iran 674 0 -14
40 Sweden 656 -5 -79
41 Senegal 651 0 -26
42 Paraguay 636 2 -2
43 Egypt 632 2 1
44 Denmark 630 -6 -67
45 Tunisia 627 2 -2
46 Venezuela 621 31 165
47 Serbia 612 7 36
48 Korea Republic 592 2 -11
49 Norway 588 2 -5
50 Scotland 584 -7 -75
51 Panama 580 5 8
52 Greece 579 -12 -99
53 Cameroon 575 5 9
54 Morocco 574 8 19
55 Jamaica 573 -9 -57
56 Uzbekistan 569 10 25
57 Congo DR 565 -5 -24
58 Japan 564 -5 -17
59 Trinidad and Tobago 558 5 8
60 Australia 555 -1 -8
61 Mali 546 2 -8
62 Cape Verde Islands 545 -13 -75
63 Guinea 544 -8 -29
64 Slovenia 542 -7 -25
65 Finland 540 2 4
65 Saudi Arabia 540 0 -5
67 South Africa 530 1 1
68 Benin 525 7 52
69 Uganda 522 3 22
70 Congo 514 -10 -46
70 Nigeria 514 -9 -45
72 Belarus 507 6 65
73 Burkina Faso 487 0 8
74 United Arab Emirates 484 -4 -33
75 Guinea-Bissau 482 40 179
76 Israel 471 -5 -42
77 Bulgaria 446 -8 -72
78 Zambia 436 1 0
79 Qatar 425 5 18
80 Jordan 423 0 -11
80 St. Kitts and Nevis 423 12 49
82 China PR 422 -1 -1
83 Honduras 398 3 5
84 Antigua and Barbuda 393 -1 -20
85 Equatorial Guinea 389 -9 -77
86 Cyprus 387 -2 -20
87 Central African Republic 386 9 35
87 Kenya 386 42 110
89 Botswana 378 -2 -13
90 Guatemala 376 1 -2
90 Sierra Leone 376 18 59
92 Liberia 370 31 78
93 Libya 366 29 73
93 New Zealand 366 54 146
95 Montenegro 365 -5 -17
96 Mozambique 362 1 13
97 Kazakhstan 359 15 47
98 Gabon 355 -10 -33
99 Iraq 354 3 20
100 Canada 350 -7 -13
100 Haiti 350 -26 -128
102 Armenia 348 8 33
103 Kyrgyzstan 341 8 28
103 Syria 341 -2 5
105 Oman 340 -5 2
106 Togo 339 -11 -19
107 Bolivia 338 -25 -82
107 Latvia 338 -3 8
109 Rwanda 334 -6 2
110 Puerto Rico 332 48 165
111 Chad 326 -5 0
111 Palestine 326 2 15
113 Estonia 323 -19 -37
114 Korea DPR 320 -16 -28
115 Georgia 318 22 58
115 Swaziland 318 2 16
117 Mauritania 317 4 23
118 Turkmenistan 312 16 48
119 Nicaragua 311 -14 -18
120 Cuba 305 6 20
120 Thailand 305 -3 3
122 Zimbabwe 303 -7 0
123 Tanzania 300 13 39
124 Burundi 297 8 28
124 El Salvador 297 -25 -45
126 Lithuania 293 1 11
127 Bahrain 284 3 13
127 Namibia 284 8 21
129 Guyana 280 1 9
130 Niger 277 -13 -25
131 Madagascar 273 -23 -44
132 Ethiopia 270 -7 -18
133 Malawi 269 -26 -51
134 Curaçao 261 20 70
135 Philippines 256 -15 -43
136 Faroe Islands 254 -47 -129
137 Angola 253 -14 -39
137 Azerbaijan 253 1 1
139 Dominican Republic 243 14 50
139 FYR Macedonia 243 0 -7
139 Vietnam 243 -6 -23
142 Mauritius 229 0 -10
142 Sudan 229 -14 -49
144 Kuwait 223 -3 -18
145 Tajikistan 220 19 70
146 Luxembourg 219 0 -2
147 Aruba 216 -4 -17
148 Hong Kong 213 -5 -20
149 Lebanon 208 2 9
150 Afghanistan 206 6 22
151 Lesotho 204 4 19
152 India 200 11 49
153 São Tomé e Príncipe 197 -1 0
153 South Sudan 197 4 23
155 Comoros 191 7 33
156 Barbados 182 -16 -63
156 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 182 -8 -29
158 Singapore 175 -9 -32
159 Grenada 171 -9 -32
160 Myanmar 167 1 6
161 Yemen 160 17 58
162 Gambia 154 3 9
163 Belize 152 -49 -155
163 Papua New Guinea 152 30 101
165 Moldova 151 -6 -14
166 Malaysia 149 7 33
167 New Caledonia 144 16 70
168 American Samoa 128 0 0
168 Cook Islands 128 0 0
170 Suriname 123 20 66
171 St. Lucia 121 -26 -104
172 Guam 120 -12 -44
173 Dominica 117 -1 -7
174 Maldives 115 0 0
175 Tahiti 114 4 18
176 Malta 109 -10 -32
177 Laos 107 -3 -8
178 Samoa 106 -10 -22
179 Vanuatu 103 6 31
180 Cambodia 95 4 22
181 Fiji 93 5 25
182 Solomon Islands 92 -6 -18
183 Liechtenstein 88 -15 -40
184 Bangladesh 85 -3 -8
184 Chinese Taipei 85 7 29
186 Seychelles 84 -6 -10
186 Timor-Leste 84 -9 -22
188 Bermuda 77 -21 -58
188 Nepal 77 -6 0
190 Kosovo 66 - 66
191 Indonesia 65 -4 0
192 Bhutan 64 -4 0
193 Sri Lanka 58 -4 0
194 Pakistan 54 -2 0
195 Macau 50 1 8
196 Montserrat 44 -2 0
196 US Virgin Islands 44 -2 0
198 Brunei Darussalam 33 -1 -4
199 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
200 San Marino 20 0 0
200 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 -2 -13
202 Mongolia 13 1 9
203 Andorra 12 -1 1
204 British Virgin Islands 11 -3 -5
205 Anguilla 0 -1 0
205 Bahamas 0 -1 0
205 Djibouti 0 -1 0
205 Eritrea 0 -1 0
205 Somalia 0 -1 0
205 Tonga 0 -1 0

28 comments:

  1. Argentina will probably continue being the leader for a long long time

    ReplyDelete
  2. Until they play Germany at another world cup...were eliminated by them in 1990, 2006, 2010, and 2014.

    ReplyDelete
  3. any info if these games will be official "A-games"?

    http://www.conmebol.com/en/argentina-confirms-friendlies-against-colombia-haiti-and-mexico-olympics

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jeroen, normally matches with an age restriction are no A-International match.

      Delete
    2. Jeroen, normally matches with an age restriction are no A-International match.

      Delete
  4. why bosnia drop by so much they won the kirin kup undefeated

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your first timeframe average drops from 474 in June to 389 in July because of the high valued Euro qualifier against Israel from June 2015 (1188 matchpts) dropping to the second timeframe. Both Kirin Cup wins only count as friendlies and delivered 700 matchpts combined. That causes the drop. Other timeframe averages remained almost the same.

      Delete
  5. What are Croatia final points?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That will be 1022 pts around spot 15 in the July ranking.

      Delete
  6. Hi pal, nice site.
    How many points will Chile get after the win in PSO vs Argentina?? I made the simulator in Fifa page and they assigned only M=1, total= 596pts. I think it should be M=2, total = 1200.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right, Chile gets 1200 matchpoints for the Copa America PSO win against Argentina. They will have 1316 points (and be around spot 5) in July.

      Just hilarious that FIFA still can't get their own predictor to work properly. Hint: try to spend some money on that, instead of putting it in your own pockets all the time !

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  7. That FIFA ranking is kind of ridiculous. Chile winning Copa America 2 years in a row and still so low compare to Argentina that didn't win anything for years and could be number 1...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hey Ed, can you show me the final review of July ranking??

    ReplyDelete
  9. As apparently Edgar didn't find the time last Friday, here's (in 2 parts) the July ranking (should be fairly definitive):

    1 Argentina 1585
    2 Belgium 1401
    3 Colombia 1331
    4 Germany 1319
    5 Chile 1316
    6 Portugal 1266
    7 France 1189
    8 Spain 1165
    9 Brazil 1156
    10 Italy 1155
    11 Wales 1137
    12 Uruguay 1130
    13 England 1107
    14 Mexico 1044
    15 Croatia 1022
    16 Poland 1011 (return to best position ever)
    17 Ecuador 1002
    18 Switzerland 957
    19 Turkey 915
    19 Hungary 915
    21 Austria 875
    22 Iceland 871 (best position ever, was 23 in jul 2015)
    23 Slovakia 867
    24 Romania 856
    25 USA 855
    26 Netherlands 848 (worst position ever, was 25 in feb 1998)
    27 Costa Rica 840
    28 Northern Ireland 822
    29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 813
    30 Ukraine 801
    31 Republic of Ireland 800
    32 Algeria 781
    33 Peru 765
    34 Czech Republic 756
    35 Cote d'Ivoire 751
    36 Ghana 749
    37 Albania 739
    38 Russia 728
    39 Iran 674
    40 Sweden 656
    41 Senegal 651
    42 Paraguay 636
    43 Egypt 632
    44 Denmark 630 (worst position ever, was 42 in dec 2015)
    45 Tunisia 627
    46 Venezuela 621
    47 Serbia 612
    48 Korea Republic 592
    49 Norway 588
    50 Scotland 584
    51 Panama 580
    52 Greece 579
    53 Cameroon 575
    54 Morocco 574
    55 Jamaica 573
    56 Uzbekistan 569
    57 Japan 564
    58 Trinidad and Tobago 558
    59 Australia 555
    59 Congo DR 555
    61 Mali 546
    62 Cape Verde Islands 545
    63 Guinea 544
    64 Slovenia 542
    65 Saudi Arabia 540
    65 Finland 540
    67 South Africa 530
    68 Benin 525
    69 Uganda 522
    70 Congo 514
    70 Nigeria 514
    72 Belarus 507
    73 Burkina Faso 487
    74 United Arab Emirates 484
    75 Guinea-Bissau 482 (best position ever, was 102 in apr 2016)
    76 Israel 471
    77 Bulgaria 446
    78 Jordan 438
    79 Qatar 425
    80 St. Kitts and Nevis 423 (best position ever, was 92 in apr 2016)
    81 China PR 422
    82 Honduras 398
    83 Antigua and Barbuda 393
    84 Equatorial Guinea 389
    85 Cyprus 387
    86 Central African Republic 386
    86 Kenya 386
    88 Zambia 385
    89 Botswana 378
    90 Sierra Leone 376
    90 Guatemala 376
    92 Liberia 370
    93 Libya 366
    93 New Zealand 366
    95 Montenegro 365
    96 Mozambique 362
    97 Kazakhstan 359 (best position ever, was 98 in dec 2001)
    98 Gabon 355
    99 Iraq 354
    100 Canada 350

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On the rankings calculator on the FIFA website it says New Zealand will be on 338 points and you have them on 366? How?

      Delete
    2. The FIFA prognosis tool haven't taken the PSO-win voor NZL into account against PNG. They just calculate with the draw. And that is not correct. NZL gets 2 points for the PSO-win instead of 1 point for the draw.
      That tool isn't really reliable.

      Delete
    3. I have the Czechs at 768 points. I wonder if that is due to that Malta friendly that was removed from the FIFA database recently?

      Delete
    4. Nogomet, well spotted. That Czech Republic-Malta friendly of May 27th was deleted from the FIFA-website somewhere in June. The matchpoints of this match were still included in the June ranking. Untill I can check my ranking against FIFA's July ranking, I indeed still include that match in my calculations.
      It has happened before that a match disappeared from their site but that the matchpoints of that match still were included in the FIFA-points. It concerned the match St. Vincent-Trinidad of March 25th, a WC-qualifier for crying out loud, that was removed somewhere in April. Only last week did that match suddenly reappear on their fixture-list.

      Delete
  10. 100 Haiti 350
    102 Armenia 348
    103 Swaziland 344
    104 Syria 341
    104 Kyrgyzstan 341
    106 Nicaragua 340
    106 Oman 340
    108 Togo 339
    109 Bolivia 338
    109 Latvia 338
    111 Rwanda 334
    112 Zimbabwe 332
    112 Puerto Rico 332
    114 Chad 326
    114 Palestine 326
    116 Estonia 323
    117 Korea DPR 320
    118 Georgia 318
    119 Mauritania 317
    120 Turkmenistan 312
    121 Cuba 305
    121 Thailand 305
    123 Tanzania 300
    124 Namibia 298
    125 El Salvador 297
    125 Burundi 297
    127 Lithuania 293
    128 Bahrain 289
    129 Guyana 280
    130 Niger 277
    131 Madagascar 273
    132 Ethiopia 270
    133 Malawi 269
    134 Curacao 261
    135 Philippines 256
    136 Faroe Islands 254
    137 Azerbaijan 253
    137 Angola 253 (worst position ever, was 124 in mar 1994)
    139 Dominican Republic 243
    139 FYR Macedonia 243
    139 Vietnam 243
    142 Sudan 229 (worst position ever, was 140 in sep 2013)
    142 Mauritius 229
    144 Kuwait 223 (worst position ever, was 141 in jan 2016)
    145 Tajikistan 220
    146 Luxembourg 219
    147 Aruba 216
    148 Hong Kong 213
    149 Lebanon 208
    150 Afghanistan 206
    151 Lesotho 204
    152 India 200
    153 South Sudan 197
    153 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 197
    155 Comoros 191 (best position ever, was 159 in apr 2016)
    156 Barbados 182
    156 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 182
    158 Singapore 175
    159 Grenada 171
    160 Myanmar 167
    161 New Caledonia 162
    162 Yemen 160
    163 Gambia 154
    164 Papua New Guinea 152
    164 Belize 152
    166 Moldova 151 (worst position ever, was 159 in jun 2016)
    167 Malaysia 149
    168 American Samoa 128
    168 Cook Islands 128
    170 Suriname 123
    171 St. Lucia 121
    172 Guam 120
    173 Dominica 117
    174 Maldives 115
    175 Tahiti 114
    176 Laos 107
    177 Samoa 106
    178 Malta 104 (worst position ever, was 173 in jul 20111)
    179 Vanuatu 103
    180 Cambodia 95
    181 Solomon Islands 92
    182 Liechtenstein 89 (worst position ever, was 173 in apr 2016)
    183 Chinese Taipei 85
    183 Bangladesh 85 (return to worst position ever)
    185 Timor-Leste 84
    185 Seychelles 84
    187 Fiji 82
    188 Bermuda 77
    188 Nepal 77
    190 Kosovo 66 (best position ever)
    191 Indonesia 65 (worst position ever, was 187 in jun 2016)
    192 Bhutan 64
    193 Sri Lanka 58
    194 Pakistan 54 (worst position ever, was 192 in may 2001)
    195 Macau 50
    196 US Virgin Islands 44
    196 Montserrat 44
    198 Brunei Darussalam 33
    199 Cayman Islands 21
    200 Turks and Caicos Islands 20
    200 San Marino 20
    202 Mongolia 13
    203 Andorra 12
    204 British Virgin Islands 11 (worst position ever, was 203 in okt 2014)
    205 Tonga 0 (worst position ever, was 204 in dec 2015)
    205 Eritrea 0 (worst position ever, was 204 in apr 2015)
    205 Somalia 0
    205 Djibouti 0
    205 Bahamas 0
    205 Anguilla 0

    ReplyDelete
  11. If Portugal were to beat Poland in regular time, where would they be ranked? Above Germany?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, still spot 6. Portugal would have had 1294 points in that case.

      Delete
  12. Do you get more points winning a final in normal/extra time (not via PSO) than you do winning a group game (assuming your opponent strength is equal)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIFA calculates matchpoints for each match and values these factors:
      - win/draw/loss (PSO-win/loss in single knock-out matches)
      - strength of the opponent (ranking position)
      - type of match (friendly, qualifier, continental final or World Cup)
      - average confederation strength.

      The UEFA NT-coefficient calculation does give bonus points for each stage in a tournament reached, FIFA doesn't.

      Delete