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Friday, February 12, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)



Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Senegal
Pot 2: Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria, Congo, Cameroon
Pot 3: Guinea, Congo DR, South Africa, Uganda, Mali
Pot 4: Morocco, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya

See the previous sims.

No changes in the pots - only in the order within the pots.

Côte d'Ivoire join Algeria - now both 100% in Pot 1 in 10000 simulations.

Cape Verde Islands improved from 80% to 84%, while Egypt's chances dropped.

Pot 4

100% - Gabon
100% - Libya
91.85% - Zambia
88.79% - Burkina Faso
80.33% - Morocco
13.29% - Uganda
12.15% - South Africa
11.26% - Mali
0.72% - Egypt
0.6% - Congo
0.43% - Cameroon
0.23% - Nigeria
0.19% - Congo DR
0.16% - Guinea

Pot 3

81.02% - Mali
71.77% - Uganda
64.91% - South Africa
59.14% - Congo DR
46.46% - Guinea
35.83% - Egypt
35.33% - Cameroon
34.48% - Congo
30.45% - Nigeria
18.88% - Morocco
10.93% - Burkina Faso
8.15% - Zambia
2.57% - Tunisia
0.08% - Senegal

Pot 2

85.39% - Tunisia
61.28% - Cameroon
59.67% - Nigeria
53.38% - Guinea
50.94% - Congo
46.54% - Egypt
40.67% - Congo DR
39% - Senegal
22.88% - South Africa
15.5% - Cape Verde Islands
14.94% - Uganda
7.72% - Mali
1.02% - Ghana
0.79% - Morocco
0.28% - Burkina Faso

Pot 1

100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
98.98% - Ghana
84.5% - Cape Verde Islands
60.92% - Senegal
16.91% - Egypt
13.98% - Congo
12.04% - Tunisia
9.65% - Nigeria
2.96% - Cameroon
0.06% - South Africa

Min/max points over the 10000 simulations:


Algeria 701 829
Côte d'Ivoire 701 760
Ghana 651 767
Cape Verde Islands 620 873
Senegal 586 676
Tunisia 573 657
Nigeria 535 669
Congo DR 532 596
Cameroon 531 635
Congo 531 686
Guinea 528 596
Egypt 516 692
South Africa 487 613
Uganda 483 581
Mali 481 569
Zambia 414 514
Morocco 403 557
Burkina Faso 386 556
Gabon 381 408
Libya 297 297

16 comments:

  1. Is there is possibility for Egypt to be in the 1st pot if they made draw and win against Nigeria??

    ReplyDelete
  2. These are Egypt matches during last 4 years:
    2-6-2012 ----- 2-6-2013:
    GUI(W) 857.85
    CTA (L):0
    CTA(D):230.05
    OMA(D):92.8
    CGO(W):273.48
    TUN(L):0
    GEO(D):125.55
    GHA(L):0
    CIV(L):0
    CHL(L):0
    QAT(L):0
    ZIM(W):645

    3-6-2013---- 2-6-2014:
    ZIM(W):632.1
    MOZ(W):625.65
    AUG(W):317.3
    GUI(W):851.4
    GHA(L):0
    GHA(W):1141.6
    BIH(W):510.5
    CHI(L):0

    3-6-2014----- 2-6-2015:
    JAM(D):103.5
    SEN(L):0
    TUN(L):0
    BOT(W):694.8
    BOT(W):694.8
    SEN(L):0
    TUN(L):0
    EQG(W):382.5

    3-6-2015 --- 29-5-2016:
    MWI(W):267.75
    TNZ(W):465.3
    CHD(W):318.7
    ZAM(W):328.9
    CHD(L):0
    CHD(W):408
    JOR(L):0
    LIB(W):303.45
    NGR(W):879.75
    NGR(W):879.75

    These mathces equal 693 points (provided 2 wins vs Nigeria)
    how it will be 709 ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There was a mistake in my code triggered by the lack of matches in May and June for African teams. Fixed now. Thanks Hassan!

      Delete
    2. How many points will Senegal had in June ranking if win and draw with Niger ?

      Delete
  3. Senegal would have 646 Points.

    Copying what Ed posted yesterday, to help you Hassan.

    res ALG - CPV - GHA - CIV - SEN | TUN - NGA - CMR - GUI - COD
    w-w 829* - 873 - 767* - 760* - 676* | 657 - 669 - 635 - 596* - 596
    w-d 786 - 789* - 728 - 740 - 646 | 629* - 624* - 600* - 573 - 575*
    w-l 765 - 747 - 709 - 730 - 631 | 615 - 602 - 583 - 562 - 564
    d-d 744 - 705 - 690 - 720 - 616 | 601 - 580 - 566 - 551 - 553
    d-l 722 - 663 - 670 - 711 - 601 | 587 - 558 - 549 - 539 - 543
    l-l 701 - 620 - 651 - 701 - 586 | 573 - 535 - 531 - 528 - 532

    res MLI - CGO - UGA - EGY - RSA | ZAM - MAR - BFA - GAB - LBY
    w-w 569* - 686 - 581 - 692 - 613 | 514 - 557 - 556 - 408 - 319*
    w-d 539 - 634 - 549* - 634 - 571 | 480* - 506 - 499 - 399* - 301
    w-l 525 - 608 - 532 - 604 - 550 | 464 - 480 - 471 - 395 - 293
    d-d 510 - 583 - 516 - 575 - 529 | 447 - 454 - 443 - 390 - 284
    d-l 495 - 557* - 500 - 546* - 508* | 430 - 429* - 414* - 386 - 275
    l-l 481 - 531 - 483 - 516 - 487 | 414 - 403 - 386 - 381 - 266

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think even if Egypt managed to win and tie Nigeria, their shot is tho hope Tunisia to lose points against Togo, and Morocco beat Cape Verde twice. Difficult, but can happen.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Congo with win and draw will had 634 , equal to Egypt, who will be seeded??

    ReplyDelete
  6. For all you interested in the latest elo-predicted June ranking for African teams, click here

    Hossam, if you really want to know: CGO 634,4, EGY 633,8.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Egypt has scheduled another friendly for the ranking: February 27th against Burkina Faso in Borg Al Arab.
    What are they doing? They lose an extra 3 to 8 points in June with a win in this one (if they at least win and draw against Nigeria).
    With worse results against Nigeria they could gain an extra 2 to 8 points with this friendly win, but then pot 1 is already out of sight anyway.

    Isn't anyone in the Egyptian FA interested in optimizing their chances on pot 1 without any effort (i.e. not playing an unnecessary friendly) ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In January 2 matches vs BFA was cancelled, so they decide to play this match again in Feb. I think so.
      Furthermore, I don't think Egypt can take a slot on pot 1

      Delete
    2. That may well be the case, but it seems like they are doing everything they can to avoid pot 1 :)
      And especially with this qualifying format (only number 1 of each group qualifies for Russia) when you are not in pot 1, this task becomes even harder to accomplish.

      Delete
    3. In the sims Edgar made above, pot 1 and pot 2 may be the same level about strength, except CIV. So pot 1 or pot 2 is not a problem

      Delete
  8. we told them that stupid friendlies will lose the pot 1 ,,, no response.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I am half Egyptian, and I don't think we will make it into pot 1. And that is fine. We will have to qualify the hard way, and I think we can do it. Don't worry Hossam.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I am half Egyptian, and I don't think we will make it into pot 1. And that is fine. We will have to qualify the hard way, and I think we can do it. Don't worry Hossam.

    ReplyDelete