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Friday, July 15, 2016

FIFA Ranking: August 2016 preview

This will most likely be the final preview, as there are only two matches before the deadline.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 August.

Two matches left - both friendlies.



This is how the points and ranks could change for these 4 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank


Uzbekistan 534 560 62 55
Iraq 337 374 112 92
Singapore 167 178 159 158
Cambodia 91 100 181 180

In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.

Best movers:

17 - Korea DPR
14 - Mauritania
8 -  Japan and Guatemala

Worst movers:

-30 - Cuba
-18 - Panama
-16 - Jamaica

Best movers in the top 50:

8 - Japan
6 - Costa Rica
1 - Peru and Ghana

Worst movers in the top 50:

-1 - Austria, Iceland, Slovakia, Romania, USA, Czech Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Norway, Scotland

August 2016 rank - Team - August 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1585 0 0
2 Belgium 1401 0 0
3 Colombia 1331 0 0
4 Germany 1319 0 0
5 Chile 1316 0 0
6 Portugal 1266 0 0
7 France 1189 0 0
8 Spain 1165 0 0
9 Brazil 1156 0 0
10 Italy 1155 0 0
11 Wales 1137 0 0
12 Uruguay 1130 0 0
13 England 1107 0 0
14 Mexico 1042 0 -2
15 Croatia 1022 0 0
16 Poland 1011 0 0
17 Ecuador 1002 0 0
18 Switzerland 957 0 0
19 Hungary 915 0 0
19 Turkey 915 0 0
21 Costa Rica 883 6 43
22 Austria 875 -1 0
23 Iceland 871 -1 0
24 Slovakia 867 -1 0
25 Romania 856 -1 0
26 Netherlands 848 0 0
26 USA 848 -1 -7
28 Northern Ireland 822 0 0
29 Bosnia and Herzegovina 813 0 0
30 Ukraine 801 0 0
31 Republic of Ireland 800 0 0
32 Algeria 781 0 0
33 Peru 777 1 12
34 Czech Republic 768 -1 0
35 Ghana 749 1 0
36 Côte d'Ivoire 748 -1 -3
37 Albania 739 0 0
38 Russia 728 0 0
39 Iran 674 0 0
40 Sweden 656 0 0
41 Senegal 654 0 3
42 Paraguay 636 0 0
43 Egypt 632 0 0
44 Denmark 630 0 0
45 Tunisia 627 0 0
46 Venezuela 621 0 0
47 Serbia 612 0 0
48 Korea Republic 609 0 17
49 Japan 595 8 31
50 Norway 588 -1 0
51 Scotland 584 -1 0
52 Greece 579 0 0
53 Morocco 574 1 0
54 Cameroon 571 -1 -4
55 Congo DR 554 4 -1
56 Australia 549 3 -6
57 Cape Verde Islands 545 5 0
58 Mali 542 3 -4
58 Slovenia 542 6 0
60 Finland 540 5 0
60 Saudi Arabia 540 5 0
62 Uzbekistan 534 -6 -35
63 Congo 533 7 19
64 South Africa 529 3 -1
65 Uganda 525 4 3
66 Guinea 521 -3 -23
67 Nigeria 513 3 -1
68 Trinidad and Tobago 511 -10 -47
69 Panama 508 -18 -72
70 Belarus 507 2 0
71 Jamaica 492 -16 -81
72 Benin 489 -4 -36
73 Burkina Faso 486 0 -1
74 United Arab Emirates 484 0 0
75 Guinea-Bissau 474 0 -8
76 Israel 471 0 0
77 Bulgaria 446 0 0
78 China PR 445 3 23
79 Jordan 437 -1 -1
80 Qatar 425 -1 0
81 St. Kitts and Nevis 423 -1 0
82 Guatemala 394 8 18
83 Antigua and Barbuda 393 0 0
84 Honduras 390 -2 -8
85 Equatorial Guinea 389 -1 0
86 Cyprus 387 -1 0
87 Central African Republic 386 -1 0
88 Zambia 385 0 0
89 Kenya 381 -3 -5
89 Sierra Leone 381 1 5
91 Botswana 378 -2 0
92 Liberia 370 0 0
93 Libya 366 0 0
93 New Zealand 366 0 0
95 Montenegro 365 0 0
96 Gabon 359 2 4
96 Kazakhstan 359 1 0
98 Mozambique 357 -2 -5
99 Korea DPR 354 18 34
100 Canada 350 0 0
101 Haiti 349 -1 -1
102 Armenia 348 0 0
103 Swaziland 344 0 0
104 Mauritania 343 15 26
105 Kyrgyzstan 341 -1 0
105 Syria 341 -1 0
107 Nicaragua 340 -1 0
107 Oman 340 -1 0
109 Togo 339 -1 0
110 Bolivia 338 -1 0
110 Latvia 338 -1 0
112 Iraq 337 -13 -17
113 Puerto Rico 332 -1 0
113 Zimbabwe 332 -1 0
115 Chad 326 -1 0
115 Palestine 326 -1 0
117 Estonia 323 -1 0
118 Georgia 318 0 0
119 Turkmenistan 312 1 0
120 Thailand 305 1 0
121 Namibia 303 3 5
121 Rwanda 303 -10 -31
123 Burundi 297 2 0
124 Tanzania 295 -1 -5
125 Lithuania 293 2 0
126 Bahrain 289 2 0
127 Malawi 286 6 17
128 Guyana 280 1 0
129 Madagascar 273 2 0
130 Ethiopia 270 2 0
131 Curaçao 261 3 0
132 Angola 259 5 6
133 Niger 257 -3 -20
134 Philippines 256 1 0
135 Faroe Islands 254 1 0
136 Azerbaijan 253 1 0
137 El Salvador 244 -12 -53
138 Dominican Republic 243 1 0
138 FYR Macedonia 243 1 0
138 Vietnam 243 1 0
141 Sudan 231 1 2
142 Mauritius 225 0 -4
143 Kuwait 223 1 0
144 Tajikistan 222 1 2
145 Luxembourg 219 1 0
146 Lesotho 214 5 10
147 Hong Kong 213 1 0
148 Aruba 209 -1 -7
149 Lebanon 208 0 0
150 Afghanistan 206 0 0
151 Cuba 205 -30 -100
152 India 200 0 0
153 São Tomé e Príncipe 197 0 0
153 South Sudan 197 0 0
155 Comoros 191 0 0
156 Barbados 182 0 0
156 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 182 0 0
158 Grenada 171 1 0
159 Myanmar 167 1 0
159 Singapore 167 -1 -8
161 New Caledonia 162 0 0
162 Yemen 160 0 0
163 Gambia 154 0 0
164 Papua New Guinea 152 0 0
165 Moldova 151 1 0
166 Belize 150 -2 -2
167 Malaysia 148 0 -1
168 Suriname 131 2 8
169 Guam 129 3 9
170 American Samoa 128 -2 0
170 Cook Islands 128 -2 0
172 St. Lucia 121 -1 0
173 Dominica 117 0 0
174 Maldives 115 0 0
175 Tahiti 114 0 0
176 Malta 109 0 0
177 Laos 107 0 0
178 Samoa 106 0 0
179 Vanuatu 103 0 0
180 Solomon Islands 92 1 0
181 Cambodia 91 -1 -4
182 Liechtenstein 88 0 0
183 Bangladesh 85 0 0
183 Chinese Taipei 85 0 0
183 Seychelles 85 2 1
186 Timor-Leste 84 -1 0
187 Fiji 82 0 0
188 Bermuda 77 0 0
188 Nepal 77 0 0
190 Kosovo 66 0 0
191 Indonesia 65 0 0
192 Bhutan 64 0 0
193 Sri Lanka 58 0 0
194 Pakistan 54 0 0
195 Macau 44 0 -6
195 Montserrat 44 1 0
195 US Virgin Islands 44 1 0
198 Brunei Darussalam 33 0 0
199 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
200 San Marino 20 0 0
200 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 0 0
202 Mongolia 13 0 0
203 Andorra 12 0 0
204 British Virgin Islands 11 0 0
205 Anguilla 0 0 0
205 Bahamas 0 0 0
205 Djibouti 0 0 0
205 Eritrea 0 0 0
205 Somalia 0 0 0
205 Tonga 0 0 0

14 comments:

  1. Hi, once again great work

    I would love to see a fresh look at the upcoming Euro 2018 WCQ chances to see what sort of changes have happened since your last review when the draw occurred

    http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/07/2018-fwcq-draw-europes-winners-and.html


    Also I would be very interested in the WCQ qualification analysis for the Asian WCQ final round before it starts in around 5 weeks as well.

    Thanks very much if you can.

    ReplyDelete
  2. At the start this September of the European qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 9 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    1: France
    2: Portugal
    3: Germany
    4: Wales (same points as Republic of Ireland on second place)
    5: Poland
    6: England
    7: Italy
    8: Belgium
    9: Croatia

    and as 8 best group numbers 2 (ordered by December 2016 ranking for now)
    7: Spain
    1: Netherlands
    9: Turkey
    2: Switzerland
    ----
    6: Slovakia
    5: Romania (same points as Denmark on third place)
    8: Bosnia-Herzegovina
    4: Republic of Ireland (same points as Wales on first place)
    Czech Republic is worst group number 2.

    At the start this September of the third round of Asian qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    1: Korea Republic and Iran to qualify
    2: Japan and Australia to qualify
    Uzbekistan from group 1 and United Arab Emirates from group 2 qualify for the 5th-place play-off.

    At the start this October of the third round of African qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 5 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    1: Tunisia
    2: Algeria
    3: Cote d'Ivoire
    4: Senegal
    5: Egypt

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks for that, i think the teams that are expected to qualify are fairly straight forward, but i do appreciate the reply

      i was more interested in seeing what % probability each team was of winning the group or finishing 2nd in Europe, and finishing 1st/2nd or finishing 3rd in Asia (based on ELO), if there is time to do the analysis and show the breakdown

      Delete
    2. Edgar can do the probability-calculations. He told me he didn't need much time for his calcualtions, so let's hope he'll find that time soon.
      Btw, my calculations are based on the most probable result of each scheduled qualifier, defined by the elo home team win expectancy.

      Delete
    3. the first Asian games are on Thursday, it would still be good to see if they can be run as at before the games commencing.

      Delete
  3. If Portugal beat Gibraltar (Friendly) and Switzerland (WCQ) next week, how many rankings points will they have?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought: why don't you use the FIFA prognosis tool to find the answer for such an easy question. And then I saw that Portugal-Gibraltar is not included in FIFA's tool. Another blunder. Really FIFA, it's no rocket science we are talking about here !

      Portugal will have 1303 points in September with two wins.
      Btw elo predicts a draw in Switzerland.

      Delete
    2. I should have mentioned that the FIFA tool fails as they do not include the GIbraltar match, and I am not some lazy schlep asking for help! heheheeh

      Thanks Ed.

      Delete
  4. Seeing today the Fifa match centre seems that match beetwen Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico (5:0) is no more considered as FIFA match

    ReplyDelete
  5. Is the September ranking preview going to be posted?

    ReplyDelete
  6. This should be the September 2016 ranking:
    1 Argentina 1.646
    2 Belgium 1.369
    3 Germany 1.347
    4 Colombia 1.323
    4 Brazil 1.323
    6 Chile 1.284
    7 Portugal 1.228
    8 France 1.188
    9 Uruguay 1.173
    10 Wales 1.161
    11 Spain 1.141
    12 England 1.130
    13 Italy 1.124
    14 Croatia 1.059
    15 Mexico 1.057
    16 Switzerland 1.020
    17 Poland 984
    18 Costa Rica 943
    19 Ecuador 917
    20 Hungary 913
    21 Turkey 885
    22 USA 874
    23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 863
    24 Netherlands 861
    25 Peru 841
    26 Austria 839
    27 Iceland 829
    28 Slovakia 820
    29 Ukraine 799
    30 Northern Ireland 798
    31 Republic of Ireland 774
    32 Romania 773
    33 Czech Republic 762
    34 Cote d'Ivoire 752
    35 Algeria 749
    36 Paraguay 720
    37 Iran 712
    38 Russia 685
    39 Senegal 684
    40 Albania 678
    41 Sweden 677
    42 Tunisia 662
    43 Ghana 658
    44 Scotland 652
    45 Australia 643
    46 Denmark 637
    47 Korea Republic 634
    48 Greece 622
    49 Uzbekistan 621
    50 Serbia 602
    51 Congo DR 589
    52 Saudi Arabia 588
    53 Egypt 587
    54 Congo 585
    55 Mali 580
    56 Japan 574
    57 Belarus 573
    58 Morocco 570
    59 Cameroon 565
    60 Venezuela 562
    61 Guinea 549
    62 South Africa 539
    62 Panama 539
    64 Nigeria 534
    65 Uganda 509
    66 United Arab Emirates 504
    67 Slovenia 502
    67 Burkina Faso 502
    69 Trinidad and Tobago 490
    70 Norway 487
    71 Benin 483
    72 Cape Verde Islands 475
    73 Guinea-Bissau 474
    74 Bulgaria 470
    75 Bolivia 468
    76 Libya 466
    77 China PR 445
    78 Guatemala 443
    79 Jamaica 430
    80 St. Kitts and Nevis 428
    81 Equatorial Guinea 424
    82 Honduras 421
    83 Finland 409
    84 Qatar 389
    85 Jordan 387
    86 Cyprus 384
    87 New Zealand 382
    88 Antigua and Barbuda 381
    88 Mozambique 381
    90 Kenya 378
    91 Zambia 377
    92 Haiti 372
    92 Sierra Leone 372
    94 Kazakhstan 368
    95 Latvia 357
    96 Mauritania 349
    97 Botswana 348
    98 Israel 346
    99 Malawi 342
    100 Togo 334
    100 Swaziland 334
    102 Kyrgyzstan 333
    103 Gabon 329
    103 Liberia 329
    103 Canada 329
    106 Chad 326
    106 Montenegro 326
    108 Rwanda 325
    109 Oman 323
    110 Nicaragua 322
    111 Faroe Islands 319
    112 Armenia 317
    113 Zimbabwe 316
    114 Dominican Republic 315
    114 Syria 315
    116 Turkmenistan 312
    117 Lithuania 311
    118 Palestine 302
    118 Korea DPR 302
    118 Guyana 302
    121 Namibia 301
    122 Central African Republic 299
    122 Niger 299
    122 Curacao 299
    125 Philippines 297
    126 Ethiopia 284
    126 Bahrain 284
    128 Iraq 279
    129 Burundi 278
    130 Estonia 274
    131 Madagascar 269
    132 Tanzania 264
    133 Azerbaijan 252
    134 Angola 247
    135 Thailand 246
    136 Sudan 240
    136 Georgia 240
    138 Puerto Rico 234
    139 Cuba 229
    140 El Salvador 228
    141 Vietnam 225
    142 Hong Kong 221
    143 Lebanon 218
    144 Tajikistan 215
    145 Luxembourg 213
    146 FYR Macedonia 211
    147 Yemen 210
    148 India 205
    149 Afghanistan 201
    150 Lesotho 200
    151 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 197
    152 Comoros 191
    153 Myanmar 184
    153 Mauritius 184
    155 Singapore 176
    156 Grenada 172
    157 Barbados 171
    158 Malaysia 158
    159 Kuwait 156
    160 Aruba 155
    161 Moldova 154
    162 Papua New Guinea 152
    162 New Caledonia 152
    164 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 148
    165 Maldives 147
    166 Belize 141
    167 South Sudan 138
    168 Kosovo 135
    169 Gambia 129
    170 Dominica 124
    171 St. Lucia 117
    172 Tahiti 116
    173 Cambodia 103
    173 Vanuatu 103
    175 Suriname 100
    176 Malta 99
    176 Laos 99
    178 Chinese Taipei 97
    179 Fiji 93
    180 Guam 91
    181 Indonesia 89
    182 Liechtenstein 86
    183 Timor-Leste 80
    184 Bermuda 77
    185 Bangladesh 75
    186 Solomon Islands 74
    186 Nepal 74
    188 Seychelles 72
    189 Bhutan 65
    190 American Samoa 64
    190 Cook Islands 64
    190 Samoa 64
    193 Sri Lanka 52
    194 Pakistan 46
    195 US Virgin Islands 44
    195 Macau 44
    197 Brunei Darussalam 33
    198 Montserrat 30
    199 Cayman Islands 21
    200 Turks and Caicos Islands 20
    201 San Marino 17
    202 Mongolia 13
    203 Andorra 11
    203 British Virgin Islands 11
    205 Tonga 0
    205 Eritrea 0
    205 Somalia 0
    205 Gibraltar 0
    205 Djibouti 0
    205 Bahamas 0
    205 Anguilla 0

    ReplyDelete
  7. New all-time highs for:
    Guinea-Bissau on 73 (75 in July 2016)
    Kazakhstan on 94 (96 in August 2016)
    Comoros on 152 (155 in July 2016)
    Kosovo on 168 (190 in July 2016)

    New all-time lows for:
    Denmark on 46 (44 in July 2016)
    Israel on 98 (82 in July 2012)
    Kuwait on 159 (144 in July 2016)
    Bangladesh on 185 (183 in June 2008)

    Gibraltar is new in the ranking, now consisting of 211 countries.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Most points gained by Brazil: +167 pts
    Most points lost by Finland: -131 pts

    Most positions gained by Bolivia: +35 spots
    Most positions lost by Central African Republic: -35 spots

    ReplyDelete