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Sunday, September 9, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (5 september 2018)

The overall UNL-ranking will be compiled after completion of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019. This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 in Dublin for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two of each group qualify for EURO 2020.


After that qualifying phase 16 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2020, will have another chance to gain one of the last 4 qualifying berths for EURO 2020 via play-offs, to be played in March 2020. The 16 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the overall UNL-ranking.

Teams will be ordered in this UNL-ranking by:

  • league
  • position in the group
  • points
  • goal-difference
  • goals scored
  • away goals scored
  • number of wins
  • number of away wins
  • fair-play
  • UEFA NT-coefficient

Notes:
- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four in June 2019;
- in league C the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group; the ranking of the group numbers 4 will be based on all group matches.

Here are the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.



team     pot 1     pot 2     pot 3     pot 4     pot 5     pot 6
Belgium 98,15 1,85 0 0 0 0
France 96,38 3,62 0 0 0 0
Portugal 92,59 7,41 0 0 0 0
Spain 91,36 8,64 0 0 0 0
Italy 88,54 11,46 0 0 0 0
Croatia 85,63 14,37 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 86,69 13,31 0 0 0 0
Germany 81,32 18,68 0 0 0 0
England 81,12 18,88 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 71,84 28,16 0 0 0 0
Poland 72,83 27,17 0 0 0 0
Iceland 53,55 46,45 0 0 0 0
Sweden 0 83,16 16,84 0 0 0
Denmark 0 82,48 17,52 0 0 0
Austria 0 72,64 27,36 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 70,97 29,03 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 69,95 30,05 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 67,96 32,04 0 0 0
Wales 0 63,42 36,58 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0 62,09 37,91 0 0 0
Turkey 0 58,61 41,39 0 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 56,39 43,61 0 0 0
Russia 0 58,23 41,77 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 54,10 45,90 0 0 0
Scotland 0 0 74,25 25,75 0 0
Serbia 0 0 65,78 34,22 0 0
Romania 0 0 54,37 45,63 0 0
Norway 0 0 49,76 50,24 0 0
Greece 0 0 49,99 50,01 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 46,30 53,70 0 0
Albania 0 0 41,80 58,20 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 43,18 56,82 0 0
Finland 0 0 41,71 58,29 0 0
Israel 0 0 34,99 65,01 0 0
Hungary 0 0 35,66 64,34 0 0
Montenegro 0 0 26,76 73,24 0 0
Estonia 0 0 20,37 79,63 0 0
Cyprus 0 0 10,63 89,37 0 0
Lithuania 0 0 4,45 95,55 0 0
Belarus 0 0 0 23,70 75,29 1,01
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 21,06 76,51 2,43
Georgia 0 0 0 14,34 81,88 3,78
Armenia 0 0 0 11,80 83,22 4,98
Kosovo 0 0 0 6,26 81,26 12,48
Luxembourg 0 0 0 4,81 87,29 7,90
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 4,85 77,43 17,72
Moldova 0 0 0 4,20 86,54 9,26
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 4,13 81,82 14,05
Latvia 0 0 0 2,96 79,71 17,33
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 1,25 63,84 34,91
Malta 0 0 0 0,36 43,40 56,24
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0,20 37,68 62,12
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0,05 27,24 72,71
Andorra 0 0 0 0,03 14,00 85,97
San Marino 0 0 0 0,00 2,89 97,11


And the seeding pots with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position. The leagues are indicated by the dotted lines.


pot 1

Belgium 3,62
France 4,03
Portugal 5,44
Spain 5,55
Italy 6,34
Croatia 6,61
Switzerland 6,66
Germany 7,05
England 7,16
Netherlands 8,04


pot 2

Poland 8,07
Iceland 9,43
-----------------------------------------
Sweden 16,82
Denmark 16,86
Austria 18,06
Bosnia-Herzegovina 18,12
Slovakia 18,24
Ukraine 18,33
Wales 18,91
Czech Republic 18,95


pot 3

Turkey 19,30
Northern Ireland 19,32
Russia 19,38
Republic of Ireland 19,72
-----------------------------------------
Scotland 28,45
Serbia 29,38
Romania 30,39
Norway 30,90
Greece 30,92
Slovenia 31,25


pot 4

Albania 31,25
Bulgaria 31,50
Finland 31,71
Israel 31,81
Hungary 32,38
Montenegro 33,00
Estonia 34,30
Cyprus 35,76
Lithuania 36,98
-----------------------------------------
Belarus 43,03


pot 5

FYR Macedonia 43,24
Georgia 44,01
Armenia 44,37
Kosovo 45,54
Luxembourg 46,12
Azerbaijan 46,27
Moldova 46,40
Kazakhstan 46,42
Latvia 46,93
Faroe Islands 48,34


pot 6

Malta 50,16
Liechtenstein 50,80
Gibraltar 51,54
Andorra 52,69
San Marino 54,15

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. When will be update after 2 Matchdays?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I love this website. It's so informative.

    Am I correct in saying that for League B, the 4 teams that finish bottom of their groups will be 3rd seeds & the teams that finish top 2 will be 2nd seeds?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quite right, Hawk. And thanks for your kind words.

      Delete
    2. That's great thanks. It's taken me a long time to get my head around the Structure of the UEFA Nations, but I really like the format.

      Delete
  3. Apologies if this is a stupid question but something with the Nations League has been on my mind lately and this is the best place I can think to ask.

    Is there any advantage to being in a 4 team group or a 3 team group in League C? Something in the back of my head says, even though the results against the 4th team are removed it doesn't completely balance things out, but I can't think why anyone would gain this hypothetical advantage. Something to do with the 4th seeds in the four team groups not necessarily finishing bottom and this changing things in some way.

    I could be talking complete rubbish but have you ever noticed anything in the probabilities showing an advantage one way or another in the rankings?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. For a good team 4 team group may in theory make the probabilty of finishing as group winner higher, since it means more matches, therefor less variance.
    In practice the 4th team is not weak enough so it will almost always be better to be in a 3 team group.

    ReplyDelete