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Friday, June 21, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (21 June)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

39.68% - Group B
38.46% - Group E
7.69% - Group D
7.23% - Group C
3.47% - Group A
2.17% - Group H
1.16% - Group I
0.14% - Group G
Worst runner-up:

21.59% - Norway
19.06% - Bulgaria
14.19% - Czech Republic
8.77% - Albania
5.48% - Denmark
4.79% - Hungary
4.71% - Slovenia
3.31% - Croatia
2.87% - Republic of Ireland
2.46% - Romania
2.35% - Iceland
2.28% - Sweden
2.08% - Austria
0.98% - France
0.95% - Montenegro
0.66% - Italy
0.52% - Ukraine
0.4% - Cyprus
0.4% - Turkey
0.39% - Poland
0.31% - England
0.27% - Armenia
0.26% - Switzerland
0.21% - Portugal
0.16% - Finland
0.16% - Israel
0.12% - Serbia
0.08% - Greece
0.04% - Lithuania
0.04% - Estonia
0.03% - Belgium
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - Malta
0.01% - Latvia
0.01% - Slovakia
0.01% - Russia
0.01% - Wales



Pot 2:


63.81% - France
41.81% - Romania
39.67% - Ukraine
32.47% - Sweden
31.08% - Hungary
26.02% - Bulgaria
23.52% - Republic of Ireland
23.26% - Greece
17.54% - Norway
16.22% - Austria
14.51% - Montenegro
11.53% - Iceland
9.02% - Russia
8.73% - Israel
7.9% - Albania
7.64% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
5.65% - Czech Republic
5.1% - Poland
4.83% - Switzerland
1.68% - Finland
1.67% - Turkey
1.54% - Slovenia
1.39% - Croatia
1.04% - Denmark
0.6% - Belgium
0.45% - Armenia
0.34% - Cyprus
0.33% - Slovakia
0.33% - England
0.07% - Netherlands
0.07% - Georgia
0.06% - Portugal
0.04% - Italy
0.03% - Estonia
0.02% - Serbia
0.02% - Lithuania
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Pot 1:

76.87% - Portugal
75.98% - Croatia
54.54% - Greece
25.72% - England
24.83% - France
17.97% - Belgium
17.58% - Sweden
17.53% - Czech Republic
15.16% - Romania
14.04% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.35% - Ukraine
10.14% - Norway
8.41% - Spain
5.58% - Albania
4.69% - Italy
4.55% - Russia
4.18% - Denmark
2.33% - Germany
2.23% - Hungary
1.49% - Switzerland
1.14% - Montenegro
0.98% - Slovenia
0.54% - Bulgaria
0.5% - Serbia
0.38% - Israel
0.38% - Republic of Ireland
0.27% - Austria
0.18% - Armenia
0.18% - Netherlands
0.08% - Turkey
0.07% - Wales
0.04% - Finland
0.04% - Iceland
0.03% - Slovakia
0.01% - Poland
0.01% - Cyprus

Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:

100% - Spain
100% - Germany
100% - Wales
99.92% - Portugal
99.15% - Italy
98.73% - England
98.2% - Croatia
96.77% - Belgium
96.15% - Serbia
80.08% - Denmark
75.63% - Czech Republic
72% - Netherlands
70.1% - Greece
64.76% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
41.39% - Albania
38.89% - Slovenia
36.63% - Norway
35.12% - Sweden
33.53% - Russia
28.57% - Armenia
28.01% - France
26.61% - Romania
23.58% - Switzerland
22.25% - Ukraine
8.33% - Slovakia
7.28% - Montenegro
6.69% - Hungary
4.57% - Turkey
4.17% - Israel
2.86% - Cyprus
2.33% - Finland
2.03% - Bulgaria
1.64% - Austria
1.59% - Republic of Ireland
0.35% - Iceland
0.2% - Poland
0% - Georgia
0% - Estonia
0% - Lithuania
0% - Northern Ireland

14 comments:

  1. Many thanks for the wonderful data sets. One small remark though;


    "Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:

    72% - Netherlands"

    Is that correct? Seems a bit odd for the Dutch to have less of a chance @ being seeded than Denmark, Serbia or the Czech republic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In order to be involved in the play-offs Netherlands would have to lose games, while the other teams you mentioned would have to win games. Winning qualifiers improves your ranking, losing doesn't. Hope it makes sense.

      Delete
  2. Ah ok, so "Chances of being seeded [b]if[/b] involved in the play-offs" also takes into account actually getting there (or rather; the subsequent ranking loss inherent to having to lose a certain number of games to be involved in the playoffs)?

    That would explain why Wales has a 100% chance (albeit the other way round, requiring them to win all their games to get there, and gaining rating), and why Germany and Spain have 100% chances, meaning even if they lost all their games from now until October, they'd still be seeded because their rank would still suffice anyway.

    Thanks for the explanation! Apologies for misinterpreting the "if" part as in "disregarding all factors leading up to that point".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it takes into account the ranking changes.

      No need to apologize. You're welcome.

      Delete
  3. I still find it incredible that Wales would have 100% chance, even after winning everything... But that's FIFA rankings for you :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. not that incredible if you look at it:

      If Wales ends up second, that has to mean Wales wins everything AND Croatia doesn't win once. That means Belgium AND Croatia are out of the playoffs and can't be seeded.

      Delete
    2. I get your point, Wales go on a massive run and Croatia are out. I mean, if you look at the likely runners up like Greece, Portugal, France, maybe Sweden or Montenegro and you would have to think Wales on a run could perhaps get in that mix, especially if they are beating Belguims, Serbias and Croatias to do it

      Delete
  4. I'm wondering which sides will get ahead of France to keep them unseeded as that is the most interesting part of this analysis it seems. Russia/Portugal, Croatia/Belgium but who's left ... Greece, Czech Republic, maybe England

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Russia, Croatia and Greece are going to be seeded, and perhaps Ukraine in front of France.

      Delete
    2. When France are unseeded, the seeds will come from:

      95.75% - Group A
      85.72% - Group F
      74.44% - Group G
      44.41% - Group H
      31.99% - Group B
      25.14% - Group C
      21.6% - Group E
      20.95% - Group D

      By team:

      80.58% - Portugal
      77.09% - Croatia
      58.96% - Greece
      29.89% - England
      21.58% - Sweden
      20.76% - Czech Republic
      18.1% - Romania
      18.05% - Belgium
      15.44% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
      13.15% - Ukraine
      11.99% - Norway
      6.74% - Albania
      5.47% - Italy
      4.92% - Denmark
      4.75% - Russia
      2.74% - Germany
      2.66% - Hungary
      1.66% - Switzerland
      1.36% - Montenegro
      1.16% - Slovenia
      0.6% - Bulgaria
      0.55% - Serbia
      0.5% - Republic of Ireland
      0.39% - Israel
      0.31% - Austria
      0.24% - Armenia
      0.16% - Netherlands
      0.06% - Wales
      0.05% - Iceland
      0.05% - Slovakia
      0.03% - Turkey
      0.02% - Poland

      Delete
    3. By Russia I mean Portugal, of course. :D

      Delete
  5. Hi. Please tell how many chances has Ukraine to take 1st place in group?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Denis,

      32.11% - 1st, 51.79% - 2nd, 14.29% - 3rd, 1.81% - 4th.

      Delete
  6. Group H is indeed an interesting group...

    This is the current standing in the group, taking into account everyone will win vs. San Marino:
    Ukraine 8 17
    Montenegro 7 14
    England 6 12
    Poland 7 12
    Moldova 8 8
    San Marino 10 0

    remaining games:
    6 sept:
    England - Moldova
    Poland - Montenegro

    10 sept:
    Ukraine - England

    11 oct:
    England - Montenegro
    Ukraine - Poland

    15 oct:
    Montenegro - Moldova
    England - Poland

    ReplyDelete