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Friday, October 13, 2017

Official UEFA Nations League seeding

More info in this UEFA.com article. Draw will take place on 24 January 2018.

Looking at the last simulations, there were just two changes:

Netherlands took the last League A spot, although Wales were favorites to clinch it.
Same thing happened in League B, with Czech Republic pipping Hungary.


League A

Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Spain
Pot 2: France, England, Switzerland, Italy
Pot 3: Poland, Iceland, Croatia, Netherlands

League B

Pot 1: Austria, Wales, Russia, Slovakia
Pot 2: Sweden, Ukraine, Republic of Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 3: Northern Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey

League C

Pot 1: Hungary, Romania, Scotland, Slovenia
Pot 2: Greece, Serbia, Albania, Norway
Pot 3: Montenegro, Israel, Bulgaria, Finland
Pot 4: Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania

League D

Pot 1: Azerbaijan, FYR Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia
Pot 2: Armenia, Latvia, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg
Pot 3: Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta
Pot 4: Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar

 1 Germany                40747
 2 Portugal               38655
 3 Belgium                38123
 4 Spain                  37311
 5 France                 36617
 6 England                36231
 7 Switzerland            34986
 8 Italy                  34426
 9 Poland                 32982
10 Iceland                31155
11 Croatia                31139
12 Netherlands            29866
-------------------------------
13 Austria                29418
14 Wales                  29269
15 Russia                 29258
16 Slovakia               28555
17 Sweden                 28487
18 Ukraine                28286
19 Republic of Ireland    28249
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 28200
21 Northern Ireland       27127
22 Denmark                27052
23 Czech Republic         27028
24 Turkey                 26538
-------------------------------
25 Hungary                26486
26 Romania                26057
27 Scotland               25662
28 Slovenia               25148
29 Greece                 24931
30 Serbia                 24847
31 Albania                24430
32 Norway                 24208
33 Montenegro             23912
34 Israel                 22792
35 Bulgaria               22091
36 Finland                20501
37 Cyprus                 19491
38 Estonia                19441
39 Lithuania              18101
-------------------------------
40 Azerbaijan             17761
41 FYR Macedonia          17071
42 Belarus                16868
43 Georgia                16523
44 Armenia                15846
45 Latvia                 15821
46 Faroe Islands          15490
47 Luxembourg             14231
48 Kazakhstan             13431
49 Moldova                13130
50 Liechtenstein          10950
51 Malta                  10870
52 Andorra                10240
53 Kosovo                  9950
54 San Marino              8190
55 Gibraltar               7550

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

21 comments:

  1. I made a simulation for the Nations League:
    http://simtheworld.blogspot.co.il/2017/10/uefa-nations-league-201819-simulations.html?m=1

    Will post the Euro 2020 qualifying tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you make simulation for other groups, not just A.

      Delete
    2. Here they are:
      http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/10/uefa-nations-league-2018-19-all-leagues-simulations.html

      Delete
    3. BTW, didn't have time to post my simulations for Euro 2020, but will hopefully do it today.

      Delete
  2. I couldn't understand why the draw for the 2020 Euro will take place only in December of 2018, then I read that the Nations League will be used to seed the 2020 Euro draw (positions in NL, not coefficients). Is this the way seeding in Europe will work from now on?

    Also, the Final Four takes place during dates set for Euro 2020 qualifying matches. Considering the crowded calendar, when are the postponed matches set to be played?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two things:
      1) The EURO qualifiers are as normal but they start in March 2019. UEFA has stated that any team in the final four of the Nations League will be known at the time of the draw (december 2, 2018) and will hence be in a qualifying group of only 5 teams. This means that the double matchday in June can be used for the final four.

      2) The nations league will not determine seeding. The qualifying draw seeding will be the 2017 National team Coefficient which was released a few days ago. The 2020 final tournament draw will be based on the November 2019 National Team Coefficient (the Nations League will indirectly affect this coefficient due to points gained from matches won etc.) HOWEVER, the nations league performance will directly affect the playoff spots for the final tournament, because teams will get into the playoffs for being good in the Nations League (and if they havent already qualified to EURO 2020). There is no playoff spot for best 3rd place team etc. from the regular qualifying process.

      Hope that clears things up :)

      Delete
    2. Nations League position WILL determine the seedings for the Euro 2020 qualifiers. It's been confirmed by UEFA. This means that bottom two teams from League A will be in Pot 2.

      However, the seedings for the Euro 2020 final tournament will probably be determined by the UEFA national team coefficient rankings with the following weightings:
      40% Euro 2020 qualifiers
      40% WC 2014 qualifiers and final tournament
      20% Euro 2016 qualifiers and final tournament.

      Nations League results do not impact the national team coefficients.

      Delete
    3. WC 2018, not 2014. That was a typo.

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    4. Nogomet, do you have any source for your last two claims ?

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    5. No, this is my assumption because I think this is the only solution that makes sense. Plus, this website thinks so too: http://www.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/ranking-2019/

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    6. I find odd that the teams that have qualified for the Final Four would be placed in the groups of five because it goes against UEFA's policy in the last qualifying tournaments. They have been placing the big, profitable teams (Germany, England, Spain, Italy, France) in the groups of six to have more revenues.

      Delete
    7. Playing in the final four will certainly give more revenue than playing two games vs Gibraltar or San Marino.

      Delete
  3. 1) OK

    2): it is clearly stated in this media briefing pdf that the draw of the UEFA Euro 2020 qualification is seeded based on UNL results.
    There will be an overall UNL-ranking based on performance in the UNL groups. Tie-breakers for this ranking will be:
    - position in group
    - points
    - goal difference
    - goals scored
    - away goals scored
    - wins
    - away wins
    - fair play
    - coefficient ranking
    You can see that the NT coefficient ranking is still mentioned but only as last deciding tool.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The document where it is clearly stated is not the link above, but the regulations for the UNL 2018/2019. See art 18.03.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I read an article saying that the UNL up to World Cups will also provide 4 play-off places, so that only 9 teams (If UEFA has 13 places to allocate) will qualify through the regular qualification tournament. Has this even been decided yet or is this just speculations at this time?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just speculation. I haven't seen any official confirmed information about the role of UNL in World Cup 2022 qualifying.

      Delete
    2. It was debated that with 55 teams (Russia will return to qualifiers after World Cup) UEFA cannot make 9 group with 6 teams because 1 team still remains so one of possible scenarios for 2022 World Cup qualifying is: 11 groups of 5 teams each with only winners taking World Cup spots and runners-up eliminated. Then 2 places would be contested by League A teams and League B teams (or both by League A teams).

      But the most interesting question for this moment is: will UEFA change the seeding system for qualifiers? It seems to be clear that results from last cycles (Euro 2016 with preliminaries + freshly finished WC 2018 preliminaries and Russian final tournament) will be totally discarded for Euro 2020 seeding. I am not sure if this is a good idea.

      Delete
    3. Well, not completely discarded, as they do determine the leagues, which determine the range of possible pots. WC 2018 PO + final tournament is discarded indeed.

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    4. I can't even imagine UEFA giving WC spots to League B, League C, or League D teams. I expect that the next Nations League won't count at all for WC qualification.

      I think UEFA will have ten groups of 5 and 6 with the winners qualifying for the World Cup. Of the second place finishers, only the top six would go to the play-offs.

      Personally I'd rather see seven groups of seven or eight teams with no play-offs. The top two teams of each group make it to the WC with the exception of the worst second place finisher.

      Delete
  6. Here are the the simulations for all leagues:
    http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/10/uefa-nations-league-2018-19-all-leagues-simulations.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. And finally, here are the simulations for Euro 2020 Qualifing:
    http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/10/uefa-euro-2020-qualifying-simulations.html
    I'll make a comparison with alternative systems on the coming days.

    ReplyDelete