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Friday, October 6, 2017

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:


Paraguay replace Argentina in the list of teams most likely to make it to Russia. Really.

AFC: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Saudi Arabia, Australia
CAF: Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal
CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, USA
CONMEBOL: Brazil, Uruguay, Peru, Colombia, Paraguay
UEFA: Belgium, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, France, Portugal, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark

These would be the seeds: Russia, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, Poland, Belgium, Peru, France.

100% - Germany
100% - Brazil
100% - Belgium
100% - England
100% - Mexico
100% - Iran
100% - Japan
100% - Saudi Arabia
100% - Korea Republic
100% - Uruguay
100% - Costa Rica
99.77% - Spain
98.11% - Poland
96.39% - Serbia
95.01% - France
94.84% - Nigeria
92.61% - Portugal
82.64% - Egypt
80.18% - Tunisia
78.46% - USA
75.83% - Italy
75.66% - Switzerland
70.13% - Peru
66.03% - Côte d'Ivoire
63.73% - Colombia
59.13% - Denmark
56.62% - Croatia
56.21% - Panama
52.61% - Paraguay
50.4% - Argentina
50.13% - Sweden
49.94% - Chile
49.8% - Senegal
44.67% - Australia
40.85% - Iceland
36.53% - Burkina Faso
30.44% - Morocco
28.41% - Northern Ireland
28.39% - Ukraine
27.25% - Wales
20.37% - Slovakia
19.82% - Congo DR
17.95% - Turkey
13.57% - Uganda
13.19% - New Zealand
12.33% - Honduras
10.03% - Cape Verde Islands
9.68% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
8.84% - Scotland
8.75% - Greece
8.33% - Syria
6.81% - Republic of Ireland
5.16% - Zambia
3.79% - Ghana
3.64% - South Africa
3.53% - Gabon
3% - Netherlands
0.23% - Slovenia
0.13% - Montenegro
0.08% - Bulgaria

AFC 5th place play-off

78.80% - Australia
21.20% - Syria

Finishing 4th in CONCACAF

49.20% - Panama
28.04% - USA
22.76% - Honduras

AFC-CONCACAF play-off

53% - AFC
47% - CONCACAF

By team

44.67% - Australia
22.54% - Panama
15.83% - USA
8.63% - Honduras
8.33% - Syria

Finishing 5th in CONMEBOL

29.62% - Chile
26.89% - Paraguay
18.72% - Colombia
12.88% - Peru
11.89% - Argentina

OFC-CONMEBOL play-off

86.81% - CONMEBOL
13.19% - OFC

By team

25.61% - Chile
21.72% - Paraguay
16.8% - Colombia
13.19% - New Zealand
11.51% - Peru
11.17% - Argentina

UEFA play-offs

Worst second:

26.63% - Wales
21.03% - Greece
17.83% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.72% - Slovakia
10.46% - Republic of Ireland
2.11% - Croatia
1.3% - Turkey
1.04% - Northern Ireland
1.03% - Serbia
0.9% - Iceland
0.77% - Ukraine
0.74% - Slovenia
0.7% - Sweden
0.43% - Scotland
0.15% - Bulgaria
0.08% - Netherlands
0.03% - Austria
0.03% - Denmark
0.01% - France
0.01% - Italy

In play-offs:

98.96% - Northern Ireland
98.71% - Italy
94.76% - Denmark
78% - Sweden
68.29% - Switzerland
57.62% - Slovakia
41.81% - Wales
39.32% - Iceland
34.06% - Greece
31.71% - Portugal
27.08% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
25.45% - Scotland
23.85% - Croatia
16.37% - Republic of Ireland
15.88% - Turkey
15.87% - Ukraine
15.62% - France
5.1% - Netherlands
4.7% - Poland
3.67% - Serbia
1.28% - Spain
1.04% - Slovenia
0.51% - Montenegro
0.34% - Bulgaria

Seeded [Seeded if in play-offs]:

95.05% [96.29%] - Italy
86.61% [91.4%] - Denmark
67.59% [98.97%] - Switzerland
41.79% [99.95%] - Wales
31.71% [100%] - Portugal
19.87% [20.08%] - Northern Ireland
15.41% [98.66%] - France
10.46% [65.87%] - Turkey
8.36% [35.05%] - Croatia
6.26% [8.03%] - Sweden
5.54% [34.91%] - Ukraine
4.7% [100%] - Poland
2.38% [8.79%] - Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.27% [4.99%] - Scotland
1.24% [96.88%] - Spain
0.91% [17.84%] - Netherlands
0.55% [1.4%] - Iceland
0.27% [79.41%] - Bulgaria
0.03% [0.05%] - Slovakia
0% [0%] - Greece
0% [0%] - Republic of Ireland
0% [0%] - Serbia
0% [0%] - Slovenia
0% [0%] - Montenegro

Final draw

Pot 1

100% [100%] - Germany
100% [100%] - Brazil
92.61% [100%] - Portugal
91.62% [93.38%] - Poland
76.79% [76.79%] - Belgium
58.12% [82.87%] - Peru
50.4% [100%] - Argentina
38.03% [40.03%] - France
37.17% [37.26%] - Spain
17.24% [34.52%] - Chile
16.4% [21.68%] - Switzerland
15.94% [58.5%] - Wales
5.64% [8.85%] - Colombia
0.04% [0.04%] - England

Pot 2

99.71% [99.71%] - England
99.44% [99.44%] - Mexico
70.64% [93.16%] - Italy
65.87% [65.87%] - Uruguay
62.54% [62.68%] - Spain
58.01% [76.67%] - Switzerland
57.57% [90.33%] - Colombia
56.98% [59.97%] - France
52.1% [88.11%] - Denmark
32.7% [65.48%] - Chile
31.86% [56.27%] - Croatia
23.21% [23.21%] - Belgium
20.88% [20.88%] - Costa Rica
12.01% [17.13%] - Peru
11.3% [41.47%] - Wales
11.29% [62.9%] - Turkey
10.92% [38.46%] - Ukraine
7.46% [14.88%] - Sweden
6.7% [23.58%] - Northern Ireland
6.49% [6.62%] - Poland
1.03% [2.52%] - Iceland
0.45% [4.65%] - Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.35% [11.67%] - Netherlands
0.21% [1.03%] - Slovakia
0.17% [1.92%] - Scotland
0.07% [87.5%] - Bulgaria
0.03% [0.04%] - USA
0.01% [0.15%] - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3

81.76% [98.94%] - Egypt
79.12% [79.12%] - Costa Rica
78.31% [99.81%] - USA
78.13% [78.13%] - Iran
62.86% [78.4%] - Tunisia
58.47% [60.66%] - Serbia
52.61% [100%] - Paraguay
42.67% [85.12%] - Sweden
41.33% [82.99%] - Senegal
39.74% [97.28%] - Iceland
34.13% [34.13%] - Uruguay
24.76% [43.73%] - Croatia
21.71% [76.42%] - Northern Ireland
20.16% [98.97%] - Slovakia
17.47% [61.54%] - Ukraine
8.67% [89.57%] - Bosnia and Herzegovina
8.67% [98.08%] - Scotland
7.47% [37.69%] - Congo DR
7.04% [7.04%] - Japan
7.03% [11.89%] - Denmark
6.68% [98.09%] - Republic of Ireland
6.66% [37.1%] - Turkey
5.19% [6.84%] - Italy
2.65% [88.33%] - Netherlands
1.58% [1.67%] - Nigeria
1.51% [15.05%] - Cape Verde Islands
1.25% [1.65%] - Switzerland
0.56% [0.56%] - Mexico
0.52% [0.82%] - Colombia
0.47% [0.84%] - Panama
0.32% [0.72%] - Australia
0.25% [0.25%] - England
0.13% [100%] - Montenegro
0.06% [0.06%] - Spain
0.03% [0.34%] - Greece
0.01% [0.04%] - Wales
0.01% [12.5%] - Bulgaria
0.01% [0.03%] - Burkina Faso

Pot 4

100% [100%] - Saudi Arabia
100% [100%] - Korea Republic
93.26% [98.33%] - Nigeria
92.96% [92.96%] - Japan
66.03% [100%] - Côte d'Ivoire
55.74% [99.16%] - Panama
44.35% [99.28%] - Australia
37.92% [39.34%] - Serbia
36.52% [99.97%] - Burkina Faso
30.44% [100%] - Morocco
21.87% [21.87%] - Iran
17.32% [21.6%] - Tunisia
13.57% [100%] - Uganda
13.19% [100%] - New Zealand
12.35% [62.31%] - Congo DR
12.33% [100%] - Honduras
8.72% [99.66%] - Greece
8.52% [84.95%] - Cape Verde Islands
8.47% [17.01%] - Senegal
8.33% [100%] - Syria
5.16% [100%] - Zambia
3.79% [100%] - Ghana
3.64% [100%] - South Africa
3.53% [100%] - Gabon
0.88% [1.06%] - Egypt
0.56% [5.79%] - Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.23% [100%] - Slovenia
0.12% [0.15%] - USA
0.12% [1.76%] - Republic of Ireland
0.08% [0.2%] - Iceland


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

48 comments:

  1. Edgar, last week you did the October preview and you had Wales predicted as winners in both their games. What changed since then to have them not projected as winners in those games and thus being the worst runners-up?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those results in the preview are based on win expectancy. Sims work differently. A quick explanation will do. A team's (e.g. Wales) win expectancy is 50%, for another (e.g. Portugal) is 60%. In the probable results, both win. In the sims, the second team will get the win more times than the first.

      Delete
  2. Thank you so much for this... The % For Colombia are really good... but Peru is going to win us.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I have one question... how is posible that Paraguay ends in the play-off and Peru and Colombia direct... i dont see that combination.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah I noticed that and I agree: it doesn't seem possible.
      On another note, it's a shame this great qualifying section has been somewhat tarnished by the Nelson Cabrera affair, with both Peru & Chile benefitting by being awarded off-field 3-0 wins. With it being so tight, it would be very cruel if another team was to lose out on qualification to one of these teams on goal difference.
      For this reason, I hope Brazil, Colombia, Argentina & Paraguay win their games next week to make that a meaningless footnote come the final reckoning.

      Delete
    2. The Euro 2016 qualifiers' case of Albania, Denmark and Serbia with Albanian drone was even worse than this because it could have been connected with the politics. And yes, it had very big influence on qualification for the final tournament.

      Delete
    3. How can Iceand be anything than atleast 95% certain to be in the Fifa 2018 final games ? I see they're currently predicted a 40.85 pct chance of a qualification and an even measlier 39.32 percentage for a play-off, which as you ought to know is a certain 100% since they can't possibly end up worse than second in their group.

      Delete
    4. You are evidently not aware that there is a serious possibility that the worst number two comes from group I.

      Delete
    5. @Anonymous Only results up until October 5th are counted on these simulations. Now the chance are about 99% as you said...

      Delete
  4. I remember all the world cups since 1982. And always there were Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, Italy. But now Argentina will be out of tournament, Italy couldn't win against Macedonia (at home!), for this reason Italy probably will be unseeed team in play off and could play against eg. Portugal and everything can happen. For me it is unbelievable championships without Argentina and Italy...

    ReplyDelete
  5. I hope Poland will qualify! But If we lose with Montenegro we will play in play-offs probably.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Ed. What's happens if Sweden, Italy and Denmark all three ends on 999 points. What's is the tiebreaker used to select the top seed for the play off?

    ReplyDelete
  7. @Sweden Tiebreaker is decimal points (you can't see them on FIFA's website).
    Check all scenarios here:
    http://www.footballseeding.com/international-tournaments/world-cup-2018/scenarios/

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hello Ed and Edgar,

    I have two questions:
    are Senegal points updated after their game against south africa in November 2016 got cancelled? was that counted?

    Will Egypt be definitely in POT 3 if They win Congo Tonight?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @EF
      1st question - not sure
      2nd question - apparently yes (based on a table from another site)

      Delete
    2. Hi Fan,

      - Yes, Senegal and South Africa points are updated for their cancelled match from November 2016.
      - if they win they qualify for the World Cup, but no it will not be a certain pot 3 for them. Egypt will have almost 95% probability to end in pot 3 when qualified.

      Delete
    3. Egypt now before 7 qualifed teams (or seats) still one more team if serbia win tomorrow they will qualify and complete 8 teams with less rank than egypt

      Delete
  9. -- UEFA after MD9 --
    columns:
    1: group
    2: 2nd place in group is seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    3: 2nd place in group is unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group is worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2

    A - 17,2 - 8 2,8 - 0,0
    B - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    C - 17,9 - 82,1 - 1,1
    D - 48,5 - 51,5 - 27,1
    E - 85,8 - 14,2 - 0,3
    F - 1,6 - 98,4 - 36,0
    G - 86,0 - 14,0 - 0,0
    H - 0,0 - 100,0 - 11,4
    I - 43,0 - 57,0 - 24,1

    team worst N2
    Slovakia 30,2
    Croatia 24,1
    Wales 15,5
    Greece 9,2
    Serbia 7,9
    Republic of Ireland 3,7
    Scotland 2,9
    Slovenia 2,9
    Bosnia-Herzegovina 2,2
    Northern Ireland 1,1
    Montenegro 0,2
    Denmark 0,1


    team in play-offs

    Italy 100,0
    Northern Ireland 98,9
    Sweden 95,7
    Denmark 91,9
    Greece 88,6
    Switzerland 56,6
    Wales 48,5
    Portugal 43,4
    Ukraine 37,5
    Scotland 33,7
    Croatia 33,0
    Slovakia 30,3
    Republic of Ireland 15,2
    Serbia 9,2
    Poland 6,4
    Iceland 5,4
    France 4,2
    Montenegro 1,4
    Netherlands 0,1

    team seeded [seeded if in play-offs]
    Italy 86,0 [86,0]
    Denmark 79,4 [86,4]
    Switzerland 56,6 [100,0]
    Wales 48,5 [100,0]
    Portugal 43,4 [100,0]
    Croatia 25,2 [76,4]
    Northern Ireland 17,9 [18,1]
    Ukraine 17,4 [46,4]
    Sweden 13,0 [13,6]
    Poland 6,4 [100,0]
    France 4,2 [100,0]
    Scotland 1,6 [4,7]
    Iceland 0,4 [7,4]

    -- CAF after MD5 (except EGY-CGO) --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    3: 2nd-4th place in group

    Group A
    TUN - 92,5 - 7,5
    COD - 7,5 - 92,5
    GUI - 0,0 - 100,0
    LBY - 0,0 - 100,0

    Group B
    NGA - 100,0 - 0,0
    ZAM - 0,0 - 100,0
    CMR - 0,0 - 100,0
    ALG - 0,0 - 100,0

    Group C
    MAR - 51,4 - 48,6
    CIV - 48,6 - 51,4
    GAB - 0,0 - 100,0
    MLI - 0,0 - 100,0

    Group D
    SEN - 91,1 - 8,9
    RSA - 7,0 - 93,0
    BFA - 1,9 - 98,1
    CPV - 0,0 - 100,0

    Group E
    EGY - 91,8 - 8,2
    UGA - 5,7 - 94,3
    GHA - 2,5 - 97,5
    CGO - 0,0 - 100,0

    ReplyDelete
  10. -- AFC after 1st leg 5th place play-off --

    winner 5th place play-off
    Australia 72,6
    Syria 27,4

    -- CONCACAF after MD9 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-3rd place in group
    3: 4th place in group
    4: 5th-6th place in group
    5: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Hexagonal
    MEX - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0
    CRC - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0
    USA - 92,1 - 6,6 - 1,3 - 4,0 - 0,6 - 96,1
    PAN - 6,2 - 69,8 - 24,0 - 29,2 - 0,4 - 35,4
    HON - 1,7 - 23,6 - 74,7 - 9,0 - 0,4 - 10,7
    TRI - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONMEBOL after MD17 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-4th place in group
    3: 5th place in group
    4: 6th-10th place in group
    5: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Group
    BRA - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0
    URU - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0
    COL - 54,7 - 19,0 - 26,3 - 17,3 - 0,9 - 72,0
    PER - 48,3 - 12,0 - 39,7 - 10,4 - 0,9 - 58,7
    ARG - 44,9 - 13,2 - 41,9 - 12,7 - 1,0 - 57,6
    CHI - 30,0 - 30,8 - 39,2 - 27,1 - 0,9 - 57,1
    PAR - 22,1 - 25,0 - 52,9 - 19,5 - 0,8 - 41,6
    ECU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    BOL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    VEN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0


    -- winner intercontinental play-offs --
    CONCACAF 42,2 - AFC 57,8

    by team
    Australia 43,4
    Panama 29,2
    Syria 14,4
    Honduras 9,0
    USA 4,0

    CONMEBOL 87,0 - OFC 13,0

    by team
    Chile 27,1
    Paraguay 19,5
    Colombia 17,3
    New Zealand 13,0
    Argentina 12,7
    Peru 10,4

    ReplyDelete
  11. final draw

    team in pot 1 [when qualified]
    Russia 100,0 [100,0]
    Brazil 100,0 [100,0]
    Germany 100,0 [100,0]
    Belgium 99,3 [99,3]
    Portugal 90,3 [100,0]
    Poland 78,9 [81,1]
    Argentina 57,6 [100,0]
    France 52,0 [52,7]
    Peru 39,8 [67,8]
    Wales 28,9 [67,4]
    Switzerland 23,3 [28,7]
    Spain 15,0 [15,0]
    Chile 13,0 [22,8]
    Colombia 1,9 [2,6]

    team in pot 2 [when qualified]
    England 99,9 [99,9]
    Mexico 99,7 [99,7]
    Spain 85,0 [85,0]
    Colombia 69,5 [96,5]
    Italy 62,8 [85,7]
    Uruguay 62,4 [62,4]
    Switzerland 57,8 [71,3]
    Denmark 50,3 [86,9]
    France 46,7 [47,3]
    Chile 44,1 [77,2]
    Peru 18,9 [32,2]
    Poland 18,4 [18,9]
    Costa Rica 17,3 [17,3]
    Croatia 14,8 [64,6]
    Wales 14,0 [32,6]
    Ukraine 11,2 [55,7]
    Sweden 10,2 [21,0]
    Northern Ireland 8,3 [30,1]
    Iceland 8,0 [8,2]
    Belgium 0,7 [0,7]

    team in pot 3 [when qualified]
    USA 96,1 [100,0]
    Tunisia 92,5 [100,0]
    Iceland 89,0 [91,8]
    Egypt 86,7 [94,4]
    Senegal 84,6 [92,9]
    Costa Rica 82,7 [82,7]
    Iran 48,1 [48,1]
    Paraguay 41,6 [100,0]
    Sweden 38,4 [79,0]
    Uruguay 37,6 [37,6]
    Northern Ireland 19,3 [69,9]
    Scotland 12,2 [100,0]
    Slovakia 12,0 [100,0]
    Italy 10,5 [14,3]
    Republic of Ireland 9,5 [100,0]
    Ukraine 8,9 [44,3]
    Croatia 8,1 [35,4]
    Denmark 7,6 [13,1]
    Serbia 7,0 [8,2]
    Congo DR 3,5 [46,7]
    Japan 1,9 [1,9]
    Nigeria 0,7 [0,7]
    Colombia 0,6 [0,8]
    Montenegro 0,5 [100,0]
    Mexico 0,3 [0,3]
    England 0,1 [0,1]

    team in pot 4 [when qualified]
    Korea Republic 100,0 [100,0]
    Saudi Arabia 100,0 [100,0]
    Nigeria 99,3 [99,3]
    Japan 98,1 [98,1]
    Serbia 78,4 [91,8]
    Iran 51,9 [51,9]
    Morocco 51,4 [100,0]
    Cote d'Ivoire 48,6 [100,0]
    Australia 43,4 [100,0]
    Panama 35,4 [100,0]
    Greece 22,7 [100,0]
    Syria 14,4 [100,0]
    New Zealand 13,0 [100,0]
    Honduras 10,7 [100,0]
    South Africa 7,0 [100,0]
    Senegal 6,5 [7,1]
    Uganda 5,7 [100,0]
    Egypt 5,1 [5,6]
    Congo DR 4,0 [53,3]
    Ghana 2,5 [100,0]
    Burkina Faso 1,9 [100,0]

    ReplyDelete
  12. o, I forgot the most important one :)

    team qualified
    Belgium 100,0
    Brazil 100,0
    Costa Rica 100,0
    England 100,0
    Germany 100,0
    Iran 100,0
    Japan 100,0
    Korea Republic 100,0
    Mexico 100,0
    Nigeria 100,0
    Russia 100,0
    Saudi Arabia 100,0
    Spain 100,0
    Uruguay 100,0
    France 98,7
    Poland 97,3
    Iceland 97,0
    USA 96,1
    Tunisia 92,5
    Egypt 91,8
    Senegal 91,1
    Portugal 90,3
    Serbia 85,4
    Switzerland 81,1
    Italy 73,3
    Colombia 72,0
    Peru 58,7
    Denmark 57,9
    Argentina 57,6
    Chile 57,1
    Morocco 51,4
    Cote d'Ivoire 48,6
    Sweden 48,6
    Australia 43,4
    Wales 42,9
    Paraguay 41,6
    Panama 35,4
    Northern Ireland 27,6
    Croatia 22,9
    Greece 22,7
    Ukraine 20,1
    Syria 14,4
    New Zealand 13,0
    Scotland 12,2
    Slovakia 12,0
    Honduras 10,7
    Republic of Ireland 9,5
    Congo DR 7,5
    South Africa 7,0
    Uganda 5,7
    Ghana 2,5
    Burkina Faso 1,9
    Montenegro 0,5

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How u make uruguay 100% sure they will qualify but still not 100%

      Delete
    2. Rounding error I'd suggest. Another site had them at 99.996 of qualifying. Basically they need Argentina or Peru to turn around a 9 goal difference with other results. They aren't mathematically in but in reality they are.

      Delete
    3. Indeed, mathematically they are not 100% qualified because there is still a scenario where they become CONMEBOL 5th. However, in my 1.000 simulations that scenario did not occur.

      Delete
    4. It's the reverse with Cape Verde. They're mathematically not out, but the above gives a 0.0% chance for them.

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  13. Hey Ed, thanks for the update, any chance of a quick Group D update before Wales v Rep Ireland, now that the Rep of Ireland are guaranteed a playoff with a win in Cardiff??? All we can do is hope🤞

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  14. Man I dont want Uruguay in that 3Rd pool of teams, want them in that second one. Waiting for all the games to finish so Edgar put up the rankings and then I figure out who I want to lose in those European play-offs so Uruguay are in the top 16 seeded qualifiers.

    I guess what I'm saying is Edgar and the rest of you add to my enjoyment of football. So please keep it up! :)

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  15. How do the play-offs of UEFA look like by now?

    SEEDED
    Portugal/Switzerland
    Italy
    Denmark
    Croatia

    UNSEEDED
    Sweden
    Northern Ireland
    Republic of Ireland
    Greece

    Is it right?

    thanks
    Daniel

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    Replies
    1. Yes, if Greece doesn't completely screw up against Gibraltar (and France against Belarus) tomorrow, these will be the participants and their seeding.
      Even with a win against the Netherlands, Sweden will not be seeded, falling just 2 points short then to Denmark.
      If France screw up then they will be seeded at the expense of Denmark.
      And if the Netherlands get their miracle against Sweden, they will still be unseeded too.
      For Slovakia as current worst number two their only hope lies in a Greece screw-up and Bosnia winning against Estonia.

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  16. Tunisia will be in pot 3 sure?

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  17. If thé following teams will be the qualified ones how it will be the 4 pots? AFC : Australia-Saudi Arabia-Iran-Japan-South Korea
    CAF : Tunisia-Egypt-Morocco-Senegal-Nigeria
    CONCACAF : Mexico-United States-Costa Rica
    CONMEBOL : Brazil-Argentina-Uruguay-Chile-Colombia
    UEFA : Russia-Portugal-Spain-France-Germany-Serbia-Poland-Iceland-Belgium-England-Italy-Danmarek-Croatia-Switzerland

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    Replies
    1. All four pots will be determined by the next world ranking list i.e. teams won't be "potted" by geography. Teams from the same confederation will be kept apart (except UEFA) although I'm not clear which method FIFA are using to do this.

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  18. Pot1 - Pot2 - Pot3 - Pot4
    Russia - Tunisia - Iran - Spain
    Germany - Egypt - Japan - England
    Brazil - Nigeria - Korea.S - Serbia
    Portugal - Senegal - KSA - Iceland
    Belgium - Coted'Iv/Mor - Mexico - Italy
    Poland - Peru - CostaRica - Denmark
    Argentina - Uruguay - USA - Switzland
    France - Chile/NewZnd - Aust/Panma - Sweden

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    Replies
    1. How can Argentina and Uruguay be together?

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    2. The two teams will be placed (Uruguay - Colombia) in the pot alone, in order to be avoided in the fall with Argentina

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    3. Pot1 - Pot2 - Pot3 - Pot4
      Russia - Tunisia - Iran - Spain
      Germany - Egypt - Japan - England
      Brazil - Nigeria - Korea.S - Serbia
      Portugal - Senegal - KSA - Iceland
      Belgium - Coted'Iv/Mor - Mexico - Italy
      Poland -Colombia - CostaRica - Denmark
      Argentina - Uruguay - Panama - Switzland
      France - Peru/NewZnd - Aust/Hondras- Sweden

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    4. No, they are not arranging the pots by geography this time. All 4 pots will be ordered by October FIFA ranking.

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    5. Sorry, i thought you were making hypothetical groups for the tournament, not just listing them :)

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  19. Pot1--Pot2--Pot3--Pot4
    Fifa--CAF/5--AFC/4--UEFA/8
    Ranking--CONMEBOL/2--CONCACAF/3--
    Oct 2017--Chile&NewZealand/1--Australia&Panama/1--
    7+Russia

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. Pot1 - Pot2 - Pot3 - Pot4
    Russia - Tunisia - Iran - Spain
    Germany - Egypt - Japan - England
    Brazil - Nigeria - Korea.S - Serbia
    Portugal - Senegal - KSA - Iceland
    Argentina - Coted'Iv/Mor - Mexico - Italy
    Poland -Colombia - CostaRica - Denmark
    Belgium - Uruguay - Panama - Switzland
    France - Peru/NewZnd - Aust/Hondras- Sweden

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  22. These pots make no sense... It will not be geographically based.

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  23. Only Pot 1 makes sense. Will look more like this assuming that all of the UEFA pot 1 playoff teams win:

    FIFA world cup 2018 pots :
    Pot 1 : Russia-Germany-Brazil-Portugal-Argentina-Belgium-Poland-France
    Pot 2 : Spain-Peru-Switzerland-England-Colombia-Italy-Mexico-Uruguay
    Pot 3 : Croatia-Denmark-Iceland-Costa Rica-Tunisia-Egypt-Senegal-Iran
    Pot 4 : Serbia-Nigeria-Australia-Japan-Morocco-Panama-South Korea-Saudi Arabia

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    1. That looks totally correct based on the remaining 9 qualifiers going as expected. Even if Ivory Coast or Honduras beat Morocco or Australia, they are both in Pot 4.
      I think we can pencil Senegal & Tunisia in with some confidence.
      If NZ overcome Peru, they'll be in Pot 4 & Croatia will get promoted to Pot 2 & Serbia to Pot 3.
      The big variables are the UEFA play-offs. At least one non-seeded team may well scrape through. So much depends on next week's draw.

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  24. Italy& Sweden
    Denmark & Irland
    Croatia & Greec
    Switzerland & N.Irland

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    Replies
    1. Looks like Sweden is missing out yet another World Cup. I just can't see Italy failing to make it. Serious concerns for Croatia also - Greece are totally capable of beating them. My opinion.

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