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Friday, June 14, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Most points gained:

33.57% - Belgium
22.3% - Chile
21.89% - Colombia
11.64% - Uruguay
10.3% - Portugal

Most points lost:

-48.13% - Croatia
-22.29% - Ecuador
-15.47% - Mexico
Belgium replace Croatia in the list of seeds. See the previous post.


100% - Brazil
98.97% - Spain
97.54% - Germany
88.63% - Argentina
74.99% - Colombia
66.04% - Netherlands
50.6% - Belgium
38.47% - Italy
34.51% - Croatia
31.71% - Portugal
27.32% - England
25.49% - Chile
22.52% - Uruguay
16.81% - Switzerland
8.34% - Mexico
8.26% - Ecuador
7.52% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.84% - Peru
0.34% - Czech Republic
0.07% - Albania
0.02% - USA
0.01% - Greece

9 comments:

  1. Edgar,
    Love the WCF seeding simulations! Look forward to the next update! Also looking forward to the October 2013 probable ranking for seeding purposes given all the recent matches. If you were also interested, I would enjoy seeing what October 2013 would be if only 2 years of past matches were used. More later, but I suspect FIFA will tweak the seeding formula (instead of just using the pure rankings) to get a group of seeds they like better...

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    Replies
    1. FIFA will pick their favoured 8 seeds, then contrive a formula that makes it so. It's about time they were transparent with this and announced what they were going to do before a ball is kicked in qualifying. I mean why even have World Rankings if you are not going to utilise them. I see they have just announced that the UEFA and Africa playoffs are to be seeded. Again, this should be made clear at the start of the campaign. It amazes me how they continue to get away with it.

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    2. Hi Dorian,

      Maybe next week I will take a look at the 2 years thing. Depends on time I have.

      Delete
    3. I also believe FIFA will do that! That's why I am hoping that Uruguay gets in the top 8. I am really curious to see if FIFA will "let" 4 SA teams to be seeded!

      Delete
  2. Hello Edgar,

    What are the top 5 combinations of eight teams to be seeded? For instance, I guess Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Italy, Netherlands and Belgium is a combination with a high score. Which is the are the top 5 scoring combinations?

    What are the chances that Belgium AND Croatia are seeded, but not the Netherlands?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The top 5 have in common: Spain, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Colombia and the Netherlands.

      8.99% Belgium
      5.08% Croatia
      4.27% England
      3.57% Portugal
      3.31% Switzerland

      Croatia and Belgium seeded, but not the Netherlands: 2.37%

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