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Friday, June 21, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The September 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the simulations when the decisions will be final.

As of now 5 teams have qualified for the play-offs: Ethiopia, Tunisia,  Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt and Algeria.
Algeria have pulled out of CHAN and Supersport hinted they might have done this in order to avoid Egypt in the play-off draw. If that is true, it was in vain, as Egypt have only a 15.34% chance of being seeded. We could see another Algeria - Egypt or Côte d'Ivoire - Egypt clash.

Pot 2:

100% - Ethiopia
84.66% - Egypt
74.25% - Senegal
57.33% - Congo
48.96% - Libya
46.99% - Cameroon
37.01% - Tunisia
25.08% - Uganda
11.02% - Zambia
6.41% - Malawi
6.08% - Burkina Faso
2.14% - Gabon
0.07% - Nigeria

Pot 1:

100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
93.52% - Nigeria
85.51% - Ghana
62.99% - Tunisia
34.43% - Burkina Faso
15.34% - Egypt
3.86% - Libya
3.47% - Zambia
0.67% - Senegal
0.19% - Cameroon
0.02% - Gabon

Another way to look at this is chances of being seeded if a team qualifies to the final stage:

100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
100% - Ghana
99.93% - Nigeria
84.99% - Burkina Faso
62.99% - Tunisia
23.95% - Zambia
15.34% - Egypt
7.31% - Libya
0.93% - Gabon
0.89% - Senegal
0.4% - Cameroon
0% - Ethiopia
0% - Congo
0% - Uganda
0% - Malawi

7 comments:

  1. Edgar,

    Great work. Can you separate teams into "if advancing, would have a higher ranking than Egypt"; "if advancing, would have a lower ranking than Egypt"; and "might be ranked higher or lower than Egypt"?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Egypt - unseeded

      Seeded teams:

      100% - Algeria
      100% - Côte d'Ivoire
      96.22% - Nigeria
      89.76% - Ghana
      66.47% - Tunisia
      39.32% - Burkina Faso
      3.9% - Libya
      3.33% - Zambia
      0.76% - Senegal
      0.22% - Cameroon
      0.02% - Gabon

      Egypt - seeded

      Unseeded teams:

      100% - Ethiopia
      88.98% - Congo
      76.4% - Senegal
      56.19% - Tunisia
      51.5% - Cameroon
      44.85% - Libya
      33.7% - Zambia
      23.4% - Uganda
      21.38% - Malawi
      3.59% - Gabon

      Looking only at the pots:

      Above: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Ghana, Burkina Faso
      Below: Ethiopia, Congo, Uganda, Malawi
      Above/below: Tunisia, Libya, Zambia, Senegal, Cameroon, Gabon

      Delete
  2. Edgar,

    Great work

    can you give me the same thing for libya

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here you go Hussein:

      Libya seeded:

      Unseeded teams:

      100% - Ethiopia
      92.23% - Congo
      85.49% - Egypt
      74.35% - Senegal
      59.07% - Tunisia
      36.79% - Zambia
      25.65% - Uganda
      24.09% - Malawi
      2.33% - Gabon

      Libya unseeded:

      Seeded teams:

      100% - Algeria
      100% - Côte d'Ivoire
      95.14% - Nigeria
      87.85% - Ghana
      63.24% - Tunisia
      36.99% - Burkina Faso
      14.05% - Egypt
      2.27% - Zambia
      0.45% - Senegal
      0.02% - Gabon

      Looking only at the pots:

      Above: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana
      Below: Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda
      Above/below: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Gabon, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Zambia

      Delete
  3. egypt will do her best to progress in fifa ranking just to avoid algeria in the playoffs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Egypt also depends on the results of other teams.

      Delete
  4. my favourite draw and good luck for arab teams and specially ALGERIA

    algerie - congo ( trained by algerian coach ) :)
    tunisia - nigeria
    egypte - ethiopie
    cote ivoire - senegal
    ghana - cameroun

    ReplyDelete