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Friday, June 14, 2013

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (14 June 2013)

Next update: August / September 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

Switzerland replace Israel in the second pot.

Best movers:

7 - Finland
4 - Armenia and Scotland
3 - Ukraine and Belgium

Worst movers:

-5 - Hungary and Latvia
-4 - Denmark
-3 - Estonia and Wales

Most points gained:

2025 - Finland
1300 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1280 - Ukraine
1260 - Republic of Ireland and Armenia

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain               37533
 2  2 Germany             36345
 3  3 Netherlands         34321
 4  4 Italy               32103
 5  5 England             30705
 6  7 Portugal            30551
 7  6 Croatia             29821
 8  8 Russia              28786
 9  9 Greece              28700
-------------------------------
10 10 Bosnia-Herzegovina  27735
11 11 Sweden              27608
12 15 Ukraine             26371
13 16 Belgium             25872
14 14 Czech Republic      25794
15 17 Republic of Ireland 25593
16 12 Denmark             25499
17 19 Switzerland         25491
18 13 Hungary             25482
-------------------------------
19 18 Israel              24282
20 20 Norway              23801
21 21 Slovakia            23752
22 22 Serbia              23044
23 23 Montenegro          22711
24 24 Turkey              22214
25 26 Austria             22172
26 27 Slovenia            22134
27 25 Romania             22021
-------------------------------
28 28 Poland              20844
29 36 Finland             20601
30 34 Armenia             20041
31 35 Scotland            19813
32 29 Estonia             19748
33 31 Belarus             19721
34 32 Bulgaria            19231
35 30 Latvia              19211
36 33 Wales               19011
-------------------------------
37 37 Albania             18811
38 38 Northern Ireland    17681
39 39 Lithuania           16586
40 40 Iceland             16556
41 41 Georgia             16341
42 42 FYR Macedonia       16276
43 43 Moldova             15861
44 44 Azerbaijan          14861
45 45 Cyprus              13956
-------------------------------
46 46 Luxembourg          13030
47 47 Kazakhstan          12401
48 48 Liechtenstein       12380
49 49 Faroe Islands       11490
50 50 Malta               10960
51 51 Andorra              8820
52 52 San Marino           7900
53 53 Gibraltar               0

26 comments:

  1. bosnia will replace greece in pot 1

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    Replies
    1. This is indeed possible, but unfortunately not very probable... Of course, in case Bosnia tops the group, then it will all hang on how Greece does in the Payoffs! Fingers crossed though, not impossible...

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    2. No way.

      Bosnia will lose Points against Slovakia, and Greece will win all his 4 games against Liechtenstein(2x), Lettland and Slovakia at home.

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  2. England are predicted to drop out of the top 9 in Europe in the FIFA ranking. Fortunately, they are still comfortable here.

    I wonder how that drop is going to be received.

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  3. this looks different from what I saw from this website http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Edgar has already said somewhere that he assumes all nonplayed matches to be losses. Hence the difference, which will even out after November snd UEFA playoffs...

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    2. If that's what's been said then that's not quite correct. The calculation I make makes no assumptions about matches that have not yet been played. Rather than make assumptions the code actually takes the average for the matches that have been played. So if a team has only played 6 out of 10 matches, then the average is taken to be that from the points gained in those 6 matches divided by 6, and not by 10.

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    3. I don't think he counts them as losses. The non-played games in the case of Belgium are counted as 10000 points (the standard points every team get).

      Homer, taking the average is also an assumption: you assume the team in question will gain the same points as the average of the previous games.

      In every case, you have to make assumptions... there' s no guarantee.

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    4. Hey, I just relay what Edgar said http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/03/euro-2016-qualifying-draw-seeding-based.html

      Maybe he just put 10000, which would make more sense, like a 'goalless loss' he he

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    5. Hi Jeroen,

      First of all, I am the author of that website, so I can say 100% for sure the calculation does not count losses, I've checked and double-checked the code.

      Taking an average is how the calculation is performed by UEFA, albeit this is how they calculate the ranking AFTER the qualifying competition has finished. They don't define how the calculation should be performed while the competition is still in progress. Taking the average is what my calculation does also, but rather than taking the average of 10 matches, as in their calculation, or 8 for the Spain/France group, I take the average of how ever many matches are played to a particular point in time.

      In that explanation taking the average is not making any assumptions, it is merely calculating fact up until that point in time. The calculation is up to a certain point in time, and it is not making a prediction for a point in time in the future, nor is it making assumptions about how it will look in the future.

      If you want to read the calculation as how it will look in the future, then that's making assumptions by doing that, but that's not how it is intended. That would be the reader's assumption. Hope that makes sense.

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    6. Homer, i wasn't referring to your site when i was talking about losses, neither was vedadpasic. We were both referring to this site. Edgar counts the non-played games as 10000 points. You just take the average as if those games don't count.

      There is no definition by UEFA about how to calculate the ranking "on the fly", since it doesn't matter to them.

      Your calculation makes the assumption these games are (as of today) irrelevant, which is an assumption wich is equivalent in quality like counting them as 10000 points. Both are not what regulation says, but are different types of interpretation.

      You seem to consider your method of calculation is like the ranking is today, but there is no "ranking of today", only the eventual ranking.

      So stop worrying about your ranking. It contains valuable information of the situation if the teams continue playing like they are doing now, while Edgar looks at the "minimum" points.

      I tend to combine your ranking with Edgars ranking to see (about) how low f.i. Belgium may fall in (allmost) worst case scenario.



      Delete
    7. > You just take the average as if those games don't count.
      > Your calculation makes the assumption these games are (as of today) irrelevant ... but are different types of interpretation.

      Sorry, but I think this is your interpretation. Only if you consider it to look into the future would I agree with you, but that's just not the case. I think the misunderstanding is because this post is about making predictions. The ranking I publish on my site does not consider anything in the future, and as I wrote the code please just accept that I do not and did not intend it to make any predictions or assumptions about the future. The only assumption it makes is that the qualifying competition has ended.

      > You seem to consider your method of calculation is like the ranking is today, but there is no "ranking of today", only the eventual ranking.

      Exactly, it is my interpretation.

      I have added a note to the page which I hope clarifies matters:

      NOTE 2: This ranking is based on a calculation that assumes that the qualifying competition has already ended on the given date. It does not make, nor intend for any assumptions nor predictions regarding future matches to be made.

      Delete
    8. that's solved :).

      These are predictions "worst/best" case scenario for the final ranking.

      Worst = all remaining games are lost by 4-0
      Best = all remaining games are won by 4-0

      (ranking by best ranking)
      01 Germany 36024,88 41465,52
      02 Spain 35362,72 39443,2
      03 Netherlands 34000,8 39441,44
      04 Italy 31782,68 37223,32
      05 Portugal 30630,88 36071,52
      06 England 30385,04 35825,68
      07 Russia 28385,72 35186,52
      08 Greece 28380,28 33820,92
      09 Croatia 29581,6 33662,08
      10 Bos & Herc. 27415,32 32855,96
      11 Sweden 27287,84 32728,48
      12 Ukraine 26051,2 31491,84
      13 Czech Rep. 25474,24 30914,88
      14 Ireland 25272,68 30713,32
      15 Denmark 25179,24 30619,88
      16 Switzerland 25171,32 30611,96
      17 Hungary 25161,52 30602,16
      18 Belgium 25631,52 29712
      19 France 25511,52 29592
      20 Israel 23961,4 29402,04
      21 Norway 23481,08 28921,72
      22 Slovakia 23432,48 28873,12
      23 Turkey 21894,08 27334,72
      24 Austria 21851,6 27292,24
      25 Slovenia 21814,32 27254,96
      26 Romania 21701 27141,64
      27 Serbia 22804,16 26884,64
      28 Montenegro 22471,16 26551,64
      29 Poland 20523,68 25964,32
      30 Armenia 19721,24 25161,88
      31 Estonia 19427,52 24868,16
      32 Bulgaria 18910,84 24351,48
      33 Latvia 18891,04 24331,68
      34 Wales 18690,84 24131,48
      35 N. Ireland 17280,72 24081,52
      36 Albania 18490,88 23931,52
      37 Scotland 19573,36 23653,84
      38 Finland 18961,16 23041,64
      39 Lithuania 16265,56 21706,2
      40 Iceland 16235,92 21676,56
      41 Macedonia 15955,72 21396,36
      42 Belarus 18390,96 21111,28
      43 Moldova 15620,76 19701,24
      44 Cyprus 13635,56 19076,2
      45 Georgia 14920,72 19001,2
      46 Azerbaijan 14620,52 18701
      47 Luxembourg 12710,12 18150,76
      48 Kazakhstan 12080,68 17521,32
      49 Liechtenst. 12060,12 17500,76
      50 Faroe Isl. 11170,68 16611,32
      51 Malta 10640,08 16080,72
      52 Andorra 8500 13940,64
      53 San Marino 7580 13020,64

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    9. For the record, UEFA now round the ranking up/down to the nearest whole number. At some stage they only rounded down, but at least for the 2013 "version" they now use "proper" rounding. I'm fine with it though if this is your interpretation! ;-)

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    10. Hi Raoul, good to see you again around here! :)

      Delete
  4. Hi would someone be able to tell me if Scotland came 3rd in their world cup qualfying group would they automatically get pot3 for these qualifiers and since the euro's now has 24 teams from 2016 onwards, will the top3 from each qualifying group go thorugh?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Answers to your questions:

      1. No, ending 3rd in WC qualifiying group doesn't necessarily mean that the will be in pot 3 for the EURO qualifiers. To be in pot 3 they will have to keep an eye on all the countries places below them.
      2. It depends strongly which format will be used to determine the countries that qualify for EURO2016. If they use the format with 9 qualifying groups, the best nr. 3 will be automatically qualified for the main event, with the remaining 8 nrs. 3 facing a play-off for the 4 remaining spots. Any other format will see other scenarios for the nrs. 3 to go through.

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    2. It's about Ws, Ds and Ls in the European coefficient, not positions. Goals scored and conceded also play a minor role.

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    3. Tobcoach, Lorric - thanks!

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  5. Anyone have an updated coefficients list after yesterday's matches?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. 1 ESP 39083
    2 GER 38865
    3 NED 35961
    4 ITA 34543
    5 ENG 32385
    6 POR 31791
    7 RUS 31266
    8 GRE 31140
    9 CRO 30221
    ------------
    10 SWE 30048
    11 BIH 28935
    12 UKR 28152
    13 DEN 27939
    14 SUI 27131
    15 BEL 27112
    16 HUN 26702
    17 CZE 25754
    18 IRL 25553
    ------------
    19 NOR 25001
    20 SVK 24952
    21 TUR 24755
    22 SRB 24704
    23 ISR 24642
    24 SVN 24595
    25 AUT 23332
    26 ROU 23241
    27 MNE 23111
    ------------
    28 POL 22524
    29 FIN 22076
    30 ARM 21241
    31 SCO 20993
    32 BUL 20431
    33 LVA 20411
    34 EST 20068
    35 BLR 19671
    36 WAL 18931
    ------------
    37 NIR 18841
    38 ALB 18771
    39 ISL 18176
    40 LTU 17806
    41 MKD 17476
    42 GEO 16816
    43 MDA 15781
    44 AZE 15261
    45 LUX 14190
    ------------
    46 CYP 13876
    47 KAZ 13601
    48 LIE 12320
    49 FRO 11410
    50 MLT 10920
    51 AND 8680
    52 SMR 7640
    ------------
    FRA 29622

    Regular qualifying matches not yet played count for 10000 points.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Does Bosnia have any chance to be in the first POT for the draw?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Suppose Bosnia defeats their opponents twice by 5-0, the coefficient would be 31536. So, yes, it's possible, but not very likely, since other teams have quite a good margin.

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