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Friday, June 21, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 12 April simulations:

58.98% - Iran
37.19% - Algeria
34.94% - Costa Rica
31.23% - Ukraine
28.41% - Australia
23.28% - Ghana
22.32% - Chile
22.02% - USA
21.31% - Belgium
17.54% - Uruguay
13.81% - Burkina Faso
11.88% - Ethiopia
8.84% - Nigeria
8.6% - Portugal
7.17% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Most declined:

-58.42% - Uzbekistan
-36.41% - Mali
-33.44% - Venezuela
-31.95% - Panama
-24.3% - Denmark
-23.77% - South Africa
-22.26% - Montenegro
-19.23% - Croatia
-17.79% - Jamaica
-17.43% - Sweden
-11.7% - Zambia
-11.52% - Iraq
-10.99% - Jordan
-10.77% - Oman
-10.43% - Honduras

Argentina qualified in all the 10000 simulations.

100% - Argentina
99.91% - Netherlands
99.69% - Colombia
99.36% - USA
99.29% - Germany
99.12% - Spain
96.21% - Ecuador
96.05% - Italy
94.84% - Costa Rica
94.76% - Switzerland
92.42% - Chile
92.23% - Russia
91.73% - Belgium
88.13% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
85.96% - Mexico
83.51% - Côte d'Ivoire
81.05% - England
67.06% - Croatia
66.23% - Portugal
66.18% - Nigeria
60.92% - Greece
60.8% - Ghana
56.5% - France
56.49% - Algeria
56.3% - Ukraine
54.26% - Egypt
48.87% - Tunisia
44.62% - New Zealand
43.83% - Honduras
43.54% - Uruguay
29.93% - Sweden
29.79% - Panama
26.3% - Senegal
22.61% - Romania
21.44% - Venezuela
21.02% - Libya
20.46% - Burkina Faso
19.35% - Peru
18.42% - Uzbekistan
17.7% - Ethiopia
17.2% - Cameroon
14.74% - Norway
14.19% - Czech Republic
13.06% - Bulgaria
11.26% - Hungary
10.91% - Republic of Ireland
10.12% - Congo
8.94% - Uganda
8.78% - Jordan
8.34% - Montenegro
6.21% - Zambia
5.42% - Albania
5.36% - Austria
4.9% - Israel
2.51% - Poland
2.43% - Denmark
2.13% - Iceland
1.6% - Jamaica
1.22% - Malawi
1.07% - Slovenia
0.72% - Gabon
0.63% - Turkey
0.53% - Finland
0.27% - Serbia
0.19% - Armenia
0.15% - Slovakia
0.09% - Paraguay
0.06% - Bolivia
0.05% - Cyprus
0.03% - Wales
0.01% - Georgia

3 comments:

  1. I know Macedonia is virtually eliminated, but should they not be in the list (they can still get 2nd place in group A)?

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  2. there are "only" 10000 simulations which are analysed. The VERY unlikely situation where Macedonia wins their remaining 4 games AND the play offs AND Croatia loses all remaining games was probably simulation 10001 OR had a so small possibility it didn't even get 0,01% possibility ;).

    In theory only 3 European teams are out of the competition, so there are a lot more teams who have a (theoretical) chance of qualifying. But only 38 have a >0,01% chance of qualifying. teams like Estonia & Northern Ireland can even (in theory) still become group winner.

    ReplyDelete