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Friday, April 12, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (12 April 2013)

Japan always qualified in each of the 10000 simulations.

100% - Japan
99.99% - Argentina
99.9% - Netherlands
98.92% - Spain
98.12% - Ecuador
97.97% - Germany
97.8% - Colombia
95.73% - Russia

94.14% - Korea Republic
90.28% - Italy
88.8% - Switzerland
86.29% - Croatia
83.93% - Mexico
81.79% - England
80.96% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
79.29% - Côte d'Ivoire
77.34% - USA
76.84% - Uzbekistan
71.59% - Australia
70.42% - Belgium
70.1% - Chile
61.74% - Panama
59.9% - Costa Rica
59.24% - Greece
57.66% - France
57.63% - Portugal
57.34% - Nigeria
54.88% - Venezuela
54.26% - Honduras
50.55% - Tunisia
48.66% - Egypt
47.36% - Sweden
43.44% - New Zealand
41.02% - Iran
37.52% - Ghana
36.41% - Mali
30.6% - Montenegro
26.73% - Denmark
26% - Uruguay
25.07% - Ukraine
24.96% - Cameroon
23.77% - South Africa
21.54% - Norway
20.29% - Romania
19.77% - Jordan
19.42% - Senegal
19.39% - Jamaica
19.3% - Algeria
18.36% - Peru
17.91% - Zambia
17.81% - Libya
16.95% - Czech Republic
15.66% - Congo
11.52% - Iraq
10.77% - Oman
9.26% - Hungary
7.28% - Albania
6.65% - Burkina Faso
6.25% - Angola
6.07% - Iceland
6.03% - Uganda
5.97% - Bulgaria
5.95% - Qatar
5.82% - Ethiopia
4.65% - Republic of Ireland
3.68% - Israel
3.68% - Malawi
3.48% - Congo DR
3.25% - Poland
2.88% - Gabon
2.66% - Liberia
2.43% - Guinea
2.05% - Benin
2.04% - Central African Republic
1.87% - Paraguay
1.52% - Turkey
1.47% - Sierra Leone
1.4% - Slovakia
1.26% - Bolivia
1.23% - Kenya
1.19% - Tanzania
0.81% - Austria
0.76% - Togo
0.67% - Sudan
0.62% - Serbia
0.59% - Equatorial Guinea
0.51% - Finland
0.45% - Niger
0.41% - Morocco
0.36% - Slovenia
0.33% - Namibia
0.17% - Botswana
0.13% - Wales
0.11% - Armenia
0.08% - Lithuania
0.08% - Zimbabwe
0.05% - Cape Verde Islands
0.05% - Cyprus
0.04% - Belarus
0.04% - Latvia
0.03% - Estonia
0.02% - Lebanon
0.02% - Mozambique
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - Rwanda

9 comments:

  1. I sure would like to see that, presumably bizarre, set of results in which Argentina doesn't qualify. Or likewise, the 10 for the Netherlands :)

    Comparing this list of qualifiers with the generated results by Elo and the qualifiers resulting from that set of results, there is only one striking difference: Panama. According to Elo they get stuck in the hexagonal at 5th place (not far behind Honduras and Costa Rica), here a 62% chance of qualifying, a higher percentage than both other countries have. In other words, that fight promises to become very close.

    And then we are already amongst the countries with less than 50% chance of qualifying. Remarkable is the low position of Ghana and Mali, even behind Egypt, Sweden, New Zealand and Iran. Elo predicts Ghana and Mali will qualify for (and are seeded in) the CAF play-offs. Egypt will qualify but will not be seeded, but that doesn't make them less dangerous of course.
    Elo predicts that New Zealand and Iran will reach the intercontinental play-offs but will be eliminated there by respectively Costa Rica and Venezuela.
    Sweden will qualify for the UEFA play-offs but will be not seeded there. The seeded UEFA play-off qualifiers will be Portugal, Belgium, Greece and France.
    Keep in mind that all Elo-predictions here are based on one generated set of results, a 'most likely' set of results, if you will.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't save the results generated in each simulation, but I might consider it :)

      Delete
  2. Uzbekistan will qualify before Japan does

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would love to make a bet on that! Uzbekistan cannot qualify directly on the match day and all Japan has to do is draw with Australia or get Oman to not lose.

      Since South Korea and Iran have to play each other again, I think it is likely that Uzbekistan will qualify directly, but not before Japan.

      Delete
    2. Well this is awkward..

      Delete
  3. Edgar, any chance you will be able to re-run the simulations after matches of June 18?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, full WC simulation update next Friday.

      Delete
  4. I know I'm typing in june, and the sim was run in April, but looking at Ecuador's schedule the rest of the way, that percentage looks awful high.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See the June update. Ecuador still looking good. They are 5 point ahead of Uruguay (5th place). Even if they were to drop to the play-offs, Uzbekistan and Jordan have a lower Elo than Ecuador.

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