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Friday, April 12, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (12 April)

Worst runner up:

15.6% - Norway
10.17% - Denmark
9.36% - Bulgaria
8.98% - Hungary
7.49% - Albania
6.97% - Czech Republic
5.48% - Romania

5.46% - Iceland
3.67% - Sweden
3.02% - Portugal
3.01% - Republic of Ireland
2.51% - Montenegro
2.12% - Israel
2.02% - Ukraine
1.72% - France
1.33% - Greece
1.3% - Austria
1.26% - Turkey
1.12% - Slovenia
0.91% - Switzerland
0.87% - England
0.82% - Belgium
0.82% - Italy
0.78% - Poland
0.63% - Croatia
0.55% - Slovakia
0.45% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.43% - Armenia
0.3% - Finland
0.23% - Lithuania
0.2% - Cyprus
0.11% - Estonia
0.1% - Wales
0.06% - Serbia
0.05% - Belarus
0.05% - Latvia
0.03% - Russia
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - Germany


Pot 2:

48.78% - France
42.8% - Romania
39.93% - Sweden
38.83% - Greece
27.86% - Montenegro
27.11% - Norway
24.01% - Hungary
19.29% - Denmark
18.06% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.01% - Albania12.59% - Belgium
12.49% - Ukraine
12.15% - Iceland
9.22% - Republic of Ireland
8.26% - Switzerland
8.23% - Bulgaria
8.13% - Czech Republic
7.53% - Israel
5.05% - Russia
2.53% - Poland
2.08% - Austria
1.98% - Slovakia
1.77% - Portugal
1.77% - Turkey
1.74% - Italy
1.15% - Slovenia
1.11% - Finland
0.92% - England
0.38% - Cyprus
0.36% - Armenia
0.31% - Lithuania
0.21% - Belarus
0.15% - Latvia
0.1% - Netherlands
0.05% - Estonia
0.04% - Georgia
0.01% - Germany
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Pot 1:

76.21% - Portugal
46.96% - Belgium
38.42% - Croatia
34.69% - France
26.93% - Greece
26.32% - Sweden
22.89% - Denmark
22.37% - England
15.71% - Ukraine
15.45% - Czech Republic
10.51% - Norway
9.92% - Spain
9.51% - Romania
9.05% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
9.01% - Germany
7.26% - Italy
4.73% - Albania
2.95% - Switzerland
2.76% - Montenegro
2.18% - Hungary
1.56% - Turkey
1.22% - Serbia
1.21% - Russia
0.6% - Iceland
0.4% - Israel
0.23% - Netherlands
0.23% - Slovenia
0.18% - Wales
0.17% - Bulgaria
0.12% - Armenia
0.1% - Republic of Ireland
0.05% - Finland
0.05% - Slovakia
0.04% - Austria
0.01% - Belarus

5 comments:

  1. Hi,
    can you explain a bit this simulation?
    Pot 1, pot 2?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the probability that a team will be either in pot 1 (seeded) or pot 2 (unseeded). From the 8 teams taking part in the play-offs, 4 of them are in pot 1 and 4 in pot 2 (depending on their FIFA-ranking by the time of the drawing)

      Delete
    2. Thanks Daniel. Just curious, are you from the AIT?

      Delete
    3. No, I'm not very academic :) You should definitely update your LinkedIn profile (if that's the correct profile).

      Delete