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Friday, September 6, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

38.92% - Group B
37.22% - Group E
8.2% - Group D
7.6% - Group C
3.9% - Group A
2.28% - Group H
1.29% - Group I
0.45% - Group F
0.14% - Group G




Worst runner-up:

20.05% - Norway
18.38% - Bulgaria
14.02% - Czech Republic
9.55% - Albania
5.51% - Denmark
4.82% - Hungary
4.51% - Slovenia
3.71% - Croatia
3.05% - Republic of Ireland
2.81% - Romania
2.42% - Iceland
2.28% - Austria
2.27% - Sweden
1.11% - France
0.96% - Montenegro
0.75% - Italy
0.56% - Ukraine
0.49% - Turkey
0.44% - Poland
0.38% - Cyprus
0.32% - England
0.31% - Switzerland
0.26% - Armenia
0.23% - Israel
0.19% - Portugal
0.15% - Finland
0.14% - Serbia
0.11% - Greece
0.08% - Estonia
0.03% - Belgium
0.03% - Russia
0.02% - Georgia
0.02% - Slovakia
0.02% - Wales
0.01% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.01% - Spain

Pot 2:

65.58% - France
44.87% - Romania
33.63% - Ukraine
30.88% - Hungary
29.15% - Sweden
26.63% - Bulgaria
24.44% - Russia
22.86% - Republic of Ireland
18.04% - Norway
15.83% - Austria
14.31% - Montenegro
11.7% - Greece
11.61% - Iceland
10.33% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
8.42% - Israel
6.77% - Albania
5.3% - Poland
5.02% - Czech Republic
3.2% - Switzerland
1.93% - Croatia
1.88% - Finland
1.8% - Slovenia
1.73% - Turkey
1.47% - Denmark
0.59% - Belgium
0.52% - Armenia
0.49% - Cyprus
0.36% - Slovakia
0.2% - Serbia
0.18% - England
0.09% - Georgia
0.08% - Netherlands
0.05% - Portugal
0.04% - Estonia
0.02% - Northern Ireland

Pot 1:

74.27% - Croatia
65.61% - Greece
56.08% - Portugal
25.98% - England
22.17% - Sweden
21.46% - France
18.83% - Belgium
17.8% - Czech Republic
17.41% - Ukraine
12.22% - Romania
11.8% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
10.43% - Russia
9.63% - Spain
9.53% - Norway
7.54% - Albania
5.25% - Italy
3.93% - Denmark
2.84% - Switzerland
1.99% - Germany
1.71% - Hungary
0.94% - Slovenia
0.9% - Montenegro
0.35% - Bulgaria
0.31% - Republic of Ireland
0.22% - Serbia
0.21% - Netherlands
0.11% - Armenia
0.1% - Israel
0.09% - Austria
0.07% - Finland
0.06% - Turkey
0.06% - Wales
0.06% - Slovakia
0.02% - Iceland
0.01% - Poland
0.01% - Northern Ireland

Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:

100% - Spain
100% - Italy
100% - Germany
100% - Wales
99.91% - Portugal
99.31% - England
97.47% - Croatia
96.96% - Belgium
84.87% - Greece
78% - Czech Republic
72.78% - Denmark
72.41% - Netherlands
53.32% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
52.69% - Albania
52.38% - Serbia
47.02% - Switzerland
43.2% - Sweden
34.57% - Norway
34.31% - Slovenia
34.11% - Ukraine
33.33% - Northern Ireland
29.91% - Russia
24.66% - France
21.4% - Romania
17.46% - Armenia
14.29% - Slovakia
5.92% - Montenegro
5.25% - Hungary
3.59% - Finland
3.35% - Turkey
1.34% - Republic of Ireland
1.3% - Bulgaria
1.17% - Israel
0.57% - Austria
0.19% - Poland
0.17% - Iceland
0% - Cyprus
0% - Georgia
0% - Estonia

21 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar,

    Nice update. So FIFA confirmed october 2013 ranking for seeding? I clicked on the link you provided as reference but I didn't see anything about WC seeding, only for European and African play-offs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Juan,

      This post is about the seeding for the European play-offs, not the final seeding.

      Delete
    2. Ok, this is for Europe! Sorry!

      Delete
  2. It would be nice to have a France-England or France-Portugal at the play-offs. I think England-Portugal would be rather unlikely. Is it possible to compute the likelihood of each of these games?
    If not, what are the chances of having both England and Portugal in pot 1, and at the same time France in pot 2?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There were 22 sims with Portugal and England in different pots.
      There were 1907 sims with France and England in different pots.
      There were 3998 sims with France and Portugal in different pots.

      Delete
    2. Cool, thanks! I hope we get an exciting game like any of those!

      Delete
  3. Love this website! Wish I knew how to do such calculations myself.

    Question: What does "pot 2" and "pot 1" indicate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How many times a certain team was in Pot 1 (seeded) or Pot 2 (unseeded) over the 10000 simulations.

      For Sweden, they were 2217 times in Pot 1 and 2915 times in Pot 2.

      Delete
  4. I'm on tenterhooks waiting for all the new figures after the matches yesterday! Ed - jack in the job and work on this full time! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Edgar, what France should do to became top seed on play-off?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A look at scenarios next Friday.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, no time for scenarios today.

      Delete
  6. Assuming that POR/RUS, GRE/BIH and BEL/CRO finish ahead of France in the October rankings, if France wins both its matches (Australia, Finland) it will also need at least:
    (1) Sweden does not beat Germany (with the Germans finishing top of the group), AND
    (2) Ukraine does not beat Poland (with England finishing top of the group).

    Another option is that they change their match with Australia and play with Mali, since a win against Mali (together with a win against Finland) will guarantee that Ukraine does not get a higher ranking. Other options include Iran and Cape Verde.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think France needs a German victory over Sweden (apart from winning their own games). It was said in another post.

      Delete
    2. A tie is enough:
      (1) For FRA, two wins (AUS, FIN) gives them 870
      (2) For SWE, a win over AUT and a tie with GER gives them 820.
      I have not seen any other post.

      Delete
    3. France also needs a UKR-POL tie, because two wins for Ukraine gives them 871.
      If I remember correctly, right now the ELO prediction gives SWE-GER tie and a UKR win over POL.

      Delete
    4. Right now elo predicts:
      SWE-AUT 1, SWE-GER X
      UKR-POL 1, SMR-UKR 2
      FRA-AUS 1, FRA-FIN 1

      With these predictions:
      SWE 891
      UKR 871
      FRA 870

      SWE-GER 2 => SWE 850
      SWE-AUT X => SWE 828

      UKR-POL X => UKR 810

      Delete
    5. Regarding the seeding of possible UEFA play-off contestants, here are the FIFA-points for October for all combinations of results of their last two matches:

      ex. 1d/2l: 1st match (11/10) draw, 2nd match (15/10) loss

      team m1 m2 1w/2w 1w/2d 1w/2l 1d/2w 1d/2d 1d/2l 1l/2w 1l/2d 1l/2l
      GRE SVK(h) LIE(h) 983 955 941 905 878 864 866 839 825
      RUS LUX(a) AZE(a) 926 874 849 885 833 808 864 813 787
      BIH LIE(h) LTU(a) 925 876 852 897 848 824 883 834 810
      SWE AUT(h) GER(h) 973 891 850 910 828 787 878 796 755
      UKR POL(h) SMR(a) 871 848 837 810 787 776 779 756 745
      FRA AUS(h) FIN(h) 870 804 772 845 780 747 833 767 734
      DEN ITA(h) MLT(h) 900 878 866 824 802 791 787 764 753
      ROU AND(a) EST(h) 767 711 683 742 686 658 730 674 646

      Delete
    6. Weren't France and Ukraine predicted to be tied at 871 points? What changed?

      Delete
    7. Yes nogomet, they were. But that was based on the FIFA-ranking of September without the following last moment changes last Thursday: awarded TUN-CPV match and 3 matches excluded (EQG-LBY, DOM-CRC and JOR-PLE). As a result some countries (including apparently France) will have a deviation of 1 point.

      The table above is based on the definitive September ranking.

      Delete