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Friday, September 6, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Most improved since the 21 June simulations:

15.39% - South Africa
9.8% - Cameroon
9.21% - Portugal
9% - Cape Verde Islands
4.67% - Panama
3.13% - Uganda


Most declined:

-12.73% - Russia
-10.12% - Libya
-7.47% - Ethiopia
-7.35% - Tunisia
-4.45% - Burkina Faso
-3.14% - New Zealand

Argentina qualified in all the 10000 simulations.

100% - Argentina
99.89% - Netherlands
99.65% - Colombia
99.35% - Germany
99.25% - USA
98.74% - Spain
96.06% - Ecuador
95.96% - Italy
94.88% - Costa Rica
94.51% - Switzerland
92.55% - Chile
90.54% - Belgium
88.09% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
86.33% - Mexico
83.94% - Côte d'Ivoire
81.66% - England
79.5% - Russia
75.44% - Portugal
66.36% - Croatia
63.37% - Nigeria
61.94% - Greece
59.62% - Ghana
56.69% - France
56.46% - Ukraine
54.47% - Egypt
54.45% - Algeria
43.03% - Uruguay
42.15% - Honduras
41.52% - Tunisia
41.48% - New Zealand
34.46% - Panama
30.7% - Sweden
27% - Cameroon
23.43% - Senegal
22.12% - Venezuela
22.07% - Romania
19.46% - Peru
18.46% - Uzbekistan
16.01% - Burkina Faso
15.52% - Norway
15.39% - South Africa
14.59% - Czech Republic
14.02% - Bulgaria
12.07% - Uganda
11.48% - Hungary
10.9% - Libya
10.71% - Republic of Ireland
10.23% - Ethiopia
9.72% - Congo
9% - Cape Verde Islands
8.57% - Jordan
8.29% - Montenegro
6.65% - Zambia
5.92% - Israel
5.51% - Albania
5.49% - Austria
2.61% - Denmark
2.59% - Poland
2.24% - Iceland
1.45% - Jamaica
1.34% - Malawi
1.15% - Slovenia
0.7% - Finland
0.62% - Gabon
0.62% - Turkey
0.27% - Botswana
0.19% - Armenia
0.18% - Slovakia
0.15% - Serbia
0.08% - Paraguay
0.07% - Cyprus
0.03% - Wales
0.02% - Bolivia
0.02% - Georgia
0.01% - Estonia
0.01% - Northern Ireland

7 comments:

  1. Edgar,

    maybe I've missed it in your first 'Roads to Brazil'-post, but can you explain a bit more about simulating the play-offs in order to determine all the qualified teams.

    Specific, what is your approach in determining the play-off pairings ? If I'm not mistaken, you need pairings if you want to determine the resulting qualification chance.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I know South Africa is now 0% but it says they have improved 15.39% ... to 15.39%?! So they were 0% before?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When it was 0 ?? As you can see here ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_CAF_Second_Round#cite_note-botswana-ethiopia-4 ),

      FIFA awarded Botswana a 3–0 win as a result of Ethiopia fielding the ineligible player Minyahil Teshome. The match originally ended 2–1 to Ethiopia played on 8 June. This change give South Africa mathematically chances to qualify.

      Delete
  3. Yes,

    On the 21st of June, they were eliminated due to the victory of Ethiopa vs Botswana (2-1), and as such had 0% chance to qualify. Later, FIFA awarded Botswana 3 points, 'cause Ethiopia fielded an ineligible player. Ethiopia lost 3 points, and South African qualification suddenly was possible again

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ah thanks to both of you for the clarification!!

    ReplyDelete