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Friday, September 20, 2013

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (20 September 2013)

Next update: October 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.


The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (1 x 5, 8 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

Luxembourg replace Cyprus in the fifth pot.

Best movers:

3 - Denmark, Switzerland and Turkey
2 - Hungary, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia

Worst movers:

-4 - Israel and Montenegro
-3 - Czech Republic and Republic of Ireland

Most points gained:

2541 - Turkey
2520 - Germany
2480 - Russia
2461 - Slovenia
2440 - Italy, Greece, Sweden and Denmark

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain               39083
 2  2 Germany             38865
 3  3 Netherlands         35961
 4  4 Italy               34543
 5  5 England             32385
 6  6 Portugal            31791
 7  8 Russia              31266
 8  9 Greece              31140
 9  7 Croatia             30221
-------------------------------
10 11 Sweden              30048
11 10 Bosnia-Herzegovina  28935
12 12 Ukraine             28152
13 16 Denmark             27939
14 17 Switzerland         27131
15 13 Belgium             27112
16 18 Hungary             26702
17 14 Czech Republic      25754
18 15 Republic of Ireland 25553
-------------------------------
19 20 Norway              25001
20 21 Slovakia            24952
21 24 Turkey              24755
22 22 Serbia              24704
23 19 Israel              24642
24 26 Slovenia            24595
25 25 Austria             23332
26 27 Romania             23241
27 23 Montenegro          23111
-------------------------------
28 28 Poland              22524
29 29 Finland             22076
30 30 Armenia             21241
31 31 Scotland            20993
32 34 Bulgaria            20431
33 35 Latvia              20411
34 32 Estonia             20068
35 33 Belarus             19671
36 36 Wales               18931
-------------------------------
37 38 Northern Ireland    18841
38 37 Albania             18771
39 40 Iceland             18176
40 39 Lithuania           17806
41 42 FYR Macedonia       17476
42 41 Georgia             16816
43 43 Moldova             15781
44 44 Azerbaijan          15261
45 46 Luxembourg          14190
-------------------------------
46 45 Cyprus              13876
47 47 Kazakhstan          13601
48 48 Liechtenstein       12320
49 49 Faroe Islands       11410
50 50 Malta               10920
51 51 Andorra              8680
52 52 San Marino           7640
53 53 Gibraltar               0

18 comments:

  1. NORGE! <3 NORWAY! <3 NORUEGA! <3 NORWEGEN! <3

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  2. Magyarország! <3 HUNGARY! <3






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  3. Does it take into account the playoff matches? Or will we know the seeding when the October matches are over?

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    1. Kjello, the play-offs are to be included for the UEFA NT-coefficient and they come with a bonus of 6000 points.

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    2. So teams get more points for failing to win their group? That sounds like rewarding failure

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    3. Eoin, you got a valid point there. I don't know the exact reasoning behind it, but here's what is said about it in the introduction of the UEFA NT-coefficients in 2008:

      To acknowledge the different levels of difficulty encountered in different stages of a competition and to give it a weighting in the calculation, bonus points are awarded to teams for any match in the qualifying competition play-offs and in the final tournaments.
      The bonus points are calculated on a statistical basis to reflect the actual average increased strength of opponents in the various rounds.

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    4. The logic is teams can't be punished because they reach the play offs instead of finishing 3rd.

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    5. Jeroen, nobody said something about 'punishing'. The extra reward (bonus) for playing a play-off match was the subject.

      The normal reward for a team ending second in the group is already two extra play-off matches with the implied chance to score extra NT-coefficient points. An extra bonus seems not necessary.

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    6. if i'm right, losing twice would mean your ranking would go down instead of the situation when you don't play the 2 games, but just end up third.

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    7. Jeroen, that is true, but then even a bonus of 6000 points is not enough to limit the damage.
      Regarding the play-offs for EURO 2012: the 4 losers all went down between 400 (EST) and 900 points (MNE) and the 4 winners all went up between 300 (CRO, IRL) to 1700 points (CZE).

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    8. The logic behind this is that the 2nd that qualified through play-offs should get a "near-1st" coefficient while the 2nd that failed should get a "near-third". Thus, it may also lessen the effects of an imbalanced draw in the groups (such as the World Cup ones). A runner-up that ends up with two losses in the play-offs would perhaps not end up 2nd in a more difficult group.

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    9. No Kjello - in this update they were not included. See this one.

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  4. Maybe not the most appropriate place to post this, but I just read this in the Dutch press. It talks (in Dutch, sorry) about possibly replacing friendlies with a league system. I haven't checked, but it looks like the UEFA ranking would be used.

    http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/6144/Uefa/article/detail/3525425/2013/10/11/UEFA-wil-af-van-vriendschappelijke-interlands.dhtml

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  6. what makes you sure that they would use 8x6 and 1x5 groups?

    The 53 teams could also be split as follows:

    5x7 and 3x6 --> 8 winners, 8 runners-up, 6 third-placed teams, with the two worst third-placed teams in a playoff for the final place.

    3x6 and 7x5 --> 10 winners + 10 runners-up + 3 third-placed teams (out of 3 playoffs of the six best third-placed teams)

    9x5 and 2x4 --> 11 winners + 11 runners-up + best third-placed team (out of 1 playoff of the two best third-placed teams)

    5x5 and 7x4 --> 12 winners + 10 best runners-up + 1 runner-up (out of 1 playout of the two worst runners-up)

    The last two variations would help to reduce the number of qualifiers per team with only 8 or 10 matches in the cycle, sth UEFA would prefer, i think.

    The good thing in having 8, or 12 groups instead of 9, 10 or 11 is, that best case half of the teams of a single group will qualify.

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    1. The idea of a group with 7 teams has been rejected by UEFA (too many match days are needed). The other are possible, but not as likely as the 8x6 plus 1x5. One advantage of this proposal is that France can be the "6th team" in the group of 5 which will give all the team a chance to play each match day

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