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Friday, October 25, 2013

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (25 October 2013)

Next update: November 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.




The qualifying format is already known (but things could change): 9 groups (1 x 5, 8 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

Bosnia-Herzegovina replace Croatia in Pot 1.
Cyprus replace Luxembourg in Pot 5.

Best movers:

3 - Serbia, Slovenia and Wales
2 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark, Armenia and Moldova

Worst movers:

-5 - Croatia
-4 - Norway and Slovakia
-2 - Finland, Bulgaria and Georgia

Most points gained:

3075 - Spain
2580 - Netherlands and Moldova
2500 - Germany and England

In the table below, the two play-off matches are already included in the calculations for the 7 teams involved (that's 8 minus France).

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain               42158
 2  2 Germany             41365
 3  3 Netherlands         38541
 4  4 Italy               35343
 5  5 England             34885
 6  7 Russia              32946
 7  6 Portugal            32414
 8  8 Greece              32307
 9 11 Bosnia-Herzegovina  31416
-------------------------------
10 10 Sweden              30278
11 13 Denmark             29660
12 12 Ukraine             29652
13 14 Switzerland         29572
14  9 Croatia             29418
15 15 Belgium             28732
16 17 Czech Republic      28234
17 16 Hungary             27802
18 18 Republic of Ireland 26733
-------------------------------
19 22 Serbia              25985
20 21 Turkey              25955
21 24 Slovenia            25835
22 23 Israel              25442
23 19 Norway              25341
24 20 Slovakia            25333
25 26 Romania             24871
26 25 Austria             24572
27 27 Montenegro          22991
-------------------------------
28 30 Armenia             22861
29 28 Poland              22464
30 31 Scotland            22233
31 29 Finland             22001
32 33 Latvia              20771
33 36 Wales               20551
34 32 Bulgaria            20391
35 34 Estonia             19988
36 35 Belarus             19646
-------------------------------
37 37 Northern Ireland    19201
38 38 Albania             19151
39 39 Iceland             19076
40 40 Lithuania           19026
41 43 Moldova             18301
42 41 FYR Macedonia       17376
43 44 Azerbaijan          16901
44 42 Georgia             16766
45 46 Cyprus              14236
-------------------------------
46 45 Luxembourg          14050
47 47 Kazakhstan          13961
48 48 Liechtenstein       12220
49 49 Faroe Islands       11751
50 50 Malta               10740
51 51 Andorra              8560
52 52 San Marino           7420
53 53 Gibraltar               0

This is how the point totals could change for the 7 teams:

Team - Minimum points (two 10 - 0 losses) - Maximum points (two 10 - 0 wins)


Portugal 32081 34748
Greece 31974 34641
Sweden 29945 32612
Ukraine 29319 31986
Croatia 29085 31752
Romania 24538 27205
Iceland 18743 21410

10 comments:

  1. So we can have these groups:

    Greece, Hungary, Slovenia, Estonia, Moldova, Gibraltar (I would really like to see Hungary at the EURO).

    Germany, Belgium, Serbia, Poland, Iceland, Luxembourg.

    At least 2 from each group at the EURO best 3rd plus play offs... I don't understand this 24 team EURO.

    Juan GG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Me neither - I think we'll just have to accept it. I hope they don't ruin the World Cup too, by increasing it to 40 teams.

      Delete
  2. My proposal for qualifiers:

    Take the bottom 10 teams from the coefficient table and make them play-off each other. So, assuming the above is the final table:

    Georgia
    Cyprus
    Luxembourg
    Kazakhstan
    Liechtenstein
    vs

    Faroe Islands
    Malta
    Andorra
    San Marino
    Gibraltar

    After the play-offs, there would be exactly 48 teams lefts. Goup them in 12 groups of 4 teams, using the above coefficients. The top 2 from each group qualify for the EURO Cup, except for the worst 2nd.

    Short, simple and direct. What about the teams losing the playoffs? I think they stand no chance, we always see ridiculous results with these teams. They are not yet ready to compete.

    Juan (Arg)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UEFA don't like preliminary rounds.

      Delete
    2. How's about prelims as you suggest - but instead of 12 groups of 4, have 8 groups of 6. Top 2 go through, then last 8 3rd place teams play knockout for the last 7 places on neutral grounds - the 8 teams drawn randomly and loser stays on in each round (any win sends you through) - the 'final' will be the teams that have lost the last 2 rounds and the winner will go through with the other 6, loser can GTFO

      Delete
    3. What does GTFO mean? I shudder to think!

      Delete
    4. Juan I think that is very smart, this should be considered.

      Delete
    5. Juan this sounds like a good idea,but the only problem is you say these teams are not et ready to compete,but the only way the will improve is by playing competitive games,so it is an awkward one.

      I think if they took the bottom 8 in coefficient and made them into two groups of 4,with the top teams going through to the qualifiers and the 2 runners up playing a playoff for the 3rd team to join the rest making 48 in total. then have the 12 groups of 4.

      I think it would give those teams a better chance to improve by competitive games against teams much the same as them,and it would get rid of those teams getting slaughtered in every game,which can't be good for confidence and the growth of the game in those country's,

      Delete