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Friday, October 25, 2013

FIFA Ranking: November 2013 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Mexico, Uruguay, Portugal, France, Greece, Croatia, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana and Algeria will grab their Brazil tickets.

The pots for the final draw would look like this (France in pot 3 as the worst ranked UEFA team)

Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Korea Republic, Costa Rica, USA, Honduras, Mexico
Pot 3: Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, Algeria, Chile, Ecuador, France
Pot 4: Netherlands, Italy, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, England, Portugal, Greece, Croatia



Probable November 2013 rank - Team - Probable November 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1527 0 14
2 Germany 1286 0 -25
3 Argentina 1281 0 15
4 Uruguay 1167 2 3
5 Netherlands 1163 3 27
6 Belgium 1156 -1 -19
7 Colombia 1152 -3 -26
8 Italy 1138 0 2
9 Switzerland 1128 -2 -10
10 England 1105 0 25
11 Brazil 1102 0 24
12 Portugal 1100 2 64
13 Greece 1055 2 72
14 USA 1050 -1 10
15 Croatia 1035 3 134
16 Chile 974 -4 -77
17 Côte d'Ivoire 960 0 43
18 France 931 3 61
19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 886 -3 -39
20 Russia 882 -1 8
21 Mexico 869 3 15
22 Ghana 868 1 8
23 Ecuador 861 -1 -1
24 Ukraine 832 -4 -39
25 Denmark 831 1 7
26 Sweden 828 -1 -22
27 Algeria 800 5 59
28 Slovenia 787 2 35
29 Serbia 781 -1 3
30 Czech Republic 766 -3 -17
31 Costa Rica 744 0 0
32 Romania 734 -3 -33
33 Armenia 716 5 29
34 Venezuela 711 3 19
35 Nigeria 707 -2 -17
36 Panama 705 0 3
37 Cape Verde Islands 698 5 36
37 Peru 698 2 12
39 Mali 684 2 16
40 Honduras 680 -6 -40
41 Turkey 679 -1 9
42 Hungary 668 1 32
42 Scotland 668 -7 -47
44 Iran 650 5 37
45 Cuba 641 29 149
46 Tunisia 632 1 0
47 Egypt 630 4 20
48 Cameroon 612 11 58
49 Japan 600 -5 -34
49 Paraguay 600 0 -13
51 Albania 597 7 34
52 Austria 596 1 0
53 Montenegro 594 1 10
54 Norway 591 -7 -41
55 Iceland 578 -9 -55
56 Wales 574 -12 -60
57 Burkina Faso 569 -5 -29
58 Korea Republic 568 -2 -1
59 Libya 555 2 15
60 South Africa 552 1 12
61 Israel 548 5 33
62 Australia 546 -5 -18
63 Finland 539 0 1
64 Guinea 534 4 22
65 Republic of Ireland 526 -5 -24
65 Uzbekistan 526 -10 -56
67 Bolivia 519 4 23
68 Slovakia 517 -3 -11
69 Zambia 513 -2 0
70 United Arab Emirates 508 1 12
71 Poland 504 -2 1
72 Haiti 495 8 31
73 Senegal 493 -9 -37
73 Sierra Leone 493 0 0
75 Morocco 490 2 12
76 Bulgaria 486 0 -1
77 Togo 480 -2 -8
78 Jordan 468 -8 -34
79 Jamaica 466 3 10
80 Belarus 447 3 6
81 Trinidad and Tobago 445 0 -12
82 Gabon 435 2 -3
83 New Zealand 433 -4 -37
84 Uganda 428 1 -3
85 Congo DR 427 2 16
86 Congo 421 5 27
86 FYR Macedonia 421 0 -9
88 Northern Ireland 412 2 13
89 China PR 406 8 41
90 Dominican Republic 384 -12 -90
91 Angola 382 2 2
92 El Salvador 378 -3 -26
92 Moldova 378 4 9
92 Oman 378 0 -3
95 Ethiopia 376 0 0
96 Azerbaijan 371 -8 -36
97 Benin 369 -3 -9
98 Estonia 360 1 9
99 Botswana 357 -1 3
100 Saudi Arabia 335 1 -3
101 Georgia 330 -1 -20
102 Kuwait 327 7 20
103 Qatar 320 2 7
104 Niger 315 6 9
105 Lithuania 313 -2 -10
106 Liberia 312 0 0
106 Tajikistan 312 10 32
108 Central African Republic 310 -1 0
108 Zimbabwe 310 -6 -18
110 Antigua and Barbuda 299 2 5
111 Iraq 297 -8 -26
112 Canada 295 -1 -1
113 Equatorial Guinea 294 6 21
114 Burundi 293 7 26
115 Korea DPR 292 -8 -18
116 Guatemala 287 -4 -7
117 Latvia 285 0 8
118 Kenya 281 0 7
119 Bahrain 275 4 9
120 Mozambique 271 -5 -11
121 Malawi 270 3 7
122 New Caledonia 249 4 0
123 Luxembourg 243 4 -4
123 Tanzania 243 6 1
125 Namibia 240 3 -6
126 Lebanon 238 -5 -29
127 Syria 231 14 48
128 Cyprus 229 6 10
129 Rwanda 228 0 -14
130 Afghanistan 226 3 3
131 Grenada 218 1 -15
131 Sudan 218 5 3
133 Kazakhstan 216 2 0
134 Philippines 204 3 -9
135 Gambia 202 4 0
136 Turkmenistan 195 -11 -59
137 Malta 194 3 2
138 Lesotho 187 3 4
139 Myanmar 184 10 15
140 Tahiti 179 4 0
141 Palestine 173 5 -2
141 Thailand 173 2 -8
143 Suriname 160 -12 -77
144 Hong Kong 158 4 -13
144 Mauritania 158 8 0
146 St. Kitts and Nevis 150 1 -22
147 India 149 7 -2
148 Maldives 147 9 0
149 Guyana 146 -35 -140
150 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 142 -30 -129
151 Liechtenstein 141 7 0
151 Puerto Rico 141 8 2
153 Sao Tome e Principe 139 9 19
154 Bangladesh 137 8 17
154 Singapore 137 1 -12
156 Belize 136 -11 -42
157 Malaysia 132 3 -5
157 Vietnam 132 -6 -27
159 Nicaragua 130 -6 -25
160 St. Lucia 129 -22 -74
161 Indonesia 128 1 8
162 Kyrgyzstan 127 -12 -34
163 Laos 125 4 20
164 Chad 116 -8 -32
165 Nepal 113 0 -6
166 Sri Lanka 108 0 0
167 Pakistan 107 1 5
168 Barbados 101 5 19
169 Faroe Islands 89 6 8
170 Guam 86 1 0
170 Solomon Islands 86 1 0
172 Bermuda 83 -11 -44
173 Aruba 82 0 0
174 Chinese Taipei 81 2 2
175 Dominica 67 -6 -22
176 Yemen 64 1 -8
177 Mauritius 62 1 0
178 Vanuatu 53 4 0
179 Mongolia 49 4 0
180 Fiji 47 5 0
181 Samoa 45 -3 -17
182 Guinea-Bissau 42 -1 -14
183 Curacao 41 -13 -47
184 Bahamas 40 4 0
185 Swaziland 39 -2 -10
186 Madagascar 33 -6 -24
186 Montserrat 33 3 0
188 Cambodia 28 10 8
189 Brunei Darussalam 26 4 0
189 Timor-Leste 26 4 0
189 Tonga 26 -3 -17
192 US Virgin Islands 23 -1 -7
193 Comoros 22 -3 -10
194 Cayman Islands 21 -2 -8
194 Papua New Guinea 21 3 0
196 American Samoa 18 -10 -25
196 British Virgin Islands 18 3 0
198 Andorra 17 2 1
199 Eritrea 16 -4 -8
200 Seychelles 15 -4 -8
201 Macau 10 3 0
201 South Sudan 10 3 0
203 Djibouti 8 -1 -3
204 Somalia 6 -3 -8
205 Cook Islands 5 -3 -6
206 Anguilla 3 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

36 comments:

  1. why is france the worst placed european team? in your list, bosnia and russia are behind them.

    i rather expect the fifa to create a pot with 9 europeans and then let luck decide which two teams of this pot are drawn together with a south america seeded time. if this is argentina or brazil, we have the group of death.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Because the ranking to be considered is that from October, not from November (thus, after the play offs). There, France is the worst ranked UEFA team.

    Maybe FIFA will do as you say, but I son't think so, as in 2006 with a similar situation, they set Serbia (the worst ranked team) in an special pot.

    But I think that there will at least two death groups because of having so many strong teams not being seeded (Netherlands, Italy, England, maybe France, Portugal, etc.)

    ReplyDelete
  3. It is funny that most of people agree that France is the worst ranked team in UEFA, but the same people complain that a group with France is a "death group". I am Brazilian and I would love to have a group with Brazil, Netherlands, France and USA, for example.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Daniel

      Well, I prefer to have a good group (I'm spanish - Spain, Russia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico would be OK) but not a death one. It's good to be self confident, but I think it's a huge risk, even for Brazil, to face a group like that (Brazil, Netherlands, France, USA). Anyway, Brazil will surely reach de top 16 (and in fact, I think they'll be the champions).

      Regarding France, one thing is the ranking and other quite different is the real power of the teams. In June, Brazil was the 22th at the ranking, at sure it was one of the best teams in the world (and they beat Spain, Italy and Uruguay). France is not so strong now, but a team with Ribery, Varane, Evra, Nasri... it's really hard to play with, the qualifying match France-Spain (0-1) was really a difficult one for Spain.

      Juan GG

      Delete
    2. Felipão would love to be in a group with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia. Me too.

      Delete
  4. Hi everybody
    I'm struggling with calculating Croatia 2013 points.
    i've found 3624.3 points for 10 games.
    (0+0+401,76+397,5+156+0+0+967,5+1237,5+463,14)
    can someone explain me where I am wrong ?

    sorry if 'm at the wrong place !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yannick, your match points are OK, so nothing wrong there except that they total to 3623.4 in 10 matches.

      Delete
    2. sorry, i wrote too fast.
      my result is 362,34 whereas Fifa found 541.59 !
      how can I be so wrong ?

      Delete
    3. 541.59 was the first time frame average of Croatia for the September 2013 ranking. For the current October ranking it is indeed 362.34.
      So you are not wrong, just looking at the wrong place :)

      Delete
    4. I'm only looking at the french version of FIFA, which is biased :).
      Thanks for the explanation, really.

      Delete
  5. There's a chance Mexico will not be allowed to play the play-offs, and hence out of the World Cup. Recently, Mexico requested to nationalize Rubens Sambueza (argentinian) so that he could play for the national team. FIFA rejected the request on the basis that Sambueza had already played an official tournament with Argentina (U-17 World Cup).

    Very swiftly, Panama has asked the points for their loss agaisnt Mexico, where the mexicans fielded a nationalized argentine footbal player, Christian Jimenez, who played South American U-20 championship for Argentina.

    Panama's request is not certain, since the South American U-20 championship is not organized by FIFA. BUT, the championship does qualify a team for the U20 WC, a FIFA tounament.

    What a disaster that would be for Mexico if FIFA decides to take away the points! Anyone has some insight about these regulations?

    My source, for anyone who understands Spanish:

    http://www.ole.com.ar/futbol-internacional/eliminatorias/Tri-Mundial_0_1021098108.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. I thought you can naturalize pretty much any player unless he played a non-friendly match for full NT? no?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I just came to point that Colombia beat Belgium and Chile beat England IN EUROPE!

    My South American pride skyrocketed... :-D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pride is good unless it turns into arrogance. Both teams deserve praise for their performances ... but there's no trophy for being the Champion of Friendlies ... still those were nice wins ... congrats.

      Delete
  8. Anyone know why FIFA removed the Equatorial Guinea versus Spain match? And if FIFA scrap the match versus South Africa (because they insisted on making a 7th substitution for their injured goalkeeper) then they're making a mockery of international football!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed. FIFA should fairplay the South Africa game and honour it. Its not RSA's fault that Valdes got injured.

      BTW: South Africa beat Spain and they get a paltry 14 FIFA ranking points. Sort of ridicules the ranking.

      Delete
    2. Maybe both teams wore non-white shorts, or maybe the referee used the wrong dressing room during the break, or just maybe he tied his shoelaces in the wrong order. Or quite possibly Spain made a contribution to Blatter's favourite charity, the Bi-partisan and Loyal Association for the Tolerant Equatorial Regime (BLATTER for short) so as not to lose too many points in the FIFA ranking?

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    3. And there goes the South Africa match, Spain and FIFA got their way. FIFA IS A DIGRACE!

      Delete
  9. What does this suggest for the future: If you are losing a friendly match throw on a 7th sub, so the game will be annulled.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 50%: these are the chances of France falling into the group of death. IFF they are placed in that special pot as hypothesized here. Here's why, correct me if I am wrong.

    As the worst ranked European, France will inevitable have to face one of the 4 Southamerican seeds: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia. Then France will face one of the 8 european teams. So for france there are 4 x 8= 32 possible combinations. If we consider that seeds are already very strong and that among the 8 european teams, 4 of them are also very strong (Netherlands, England, Italy, Portugal), there are 4 x 4= 16 combinations of group of death for France. 16/32 = 50%

    Juan (Arg.)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Juan,

    it could also be that the UEFA-team in the special pot is decided on the november ranking as this was also the case in 2006 with Serbia and Montenegro. They were picked as lowest ranked in the november 2005 ranking (after the play-offs were played).
    In the november 2013 ranking Russia will be the lowest ranked qualified UEFA team.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Ed, I didn't know that in 2006 they did like that (lowest UEFA ranked team AFTER the play offs) but it seems unfair to me, as a team (in this case France) is benefited without having won the group (Russia). I would be surprised if France is not the 9th team, but it's true that we have 1) the influence of Platini 2) the chance to avoid a group of death involving Brazil. So... we'll see.

    Maybe they'll set just a 9 teams european pot; this would mean several chances to have a death group involving the CONMEBOL teams (as there sure won't be 3 UEFA in a group).

    Anyway, the rules of the draw should be set before the qualification starts, I think.

    Juan GG

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  13. I agree completely.

    The options are:
    - a special pot with France (based on Oct-ranking) or Russia (based on Nov-ranking) in it which will be drawn with a CONMEBOL-seed;
    - France (based on Oct-ranking) or Russia (based on Nov-ranking) are placed in the pot with CAF-teams and Chile and Ecuador and will be drawn with a CONMEBOL-seed (effectively the same as the first option);
    - a pot with 9 UEFA-teams where the last drawn team is placed in a group with a CONMEBOL-seed.

    I think the first option with France in the special pot is the fairest solution.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree about South Africa-Spain disgrace.

      I've been trying to replicate the Fifa ranking & I have many small errors.
      It seems some results have been calculated with another month ranking.
      So, is there a page somewhere which lists all results & FIFA official points ?

      Delete
    2. Yannick,

      see the thread following my post: http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/09/fifa-ranking-october-2013-probable_20.html?showComment=1383203351073#c4469556034116358552 for directions.

      Delete
    3. thanks for the quick reply.
      I can't download the file you refer to.

      Delete
    4. The filedropper-link was expired. Here's a new one:

      http://www.filedropper.com/breakdown201310

      Delete
    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    6. Why do you think putting France in a special pot guaranteeing that they will face a South American and one other UEFA team is the fairest solution?

      Surely a 9 team UEFA pot with the last UEFA team drawn going into one of the seeded South American team's groups would be fairer so that all UEFA teams are treated equally. This was done in 1998 and wouldn't be any more complex.

      Delete
    7. Well, simply because they are the lowest ranked and had to scrape through the play-offs. A spot in the special pot 'guarantees' a quite difficult group (given the constraint of maximum two UEFA teams in a group) and that possible disadvantage should go to the worst UEFA-team in terms of ranking and qualification. Based on the numbers that's France.

      I think not all UEFA-qualifiers should be treated equally; at least the group-winners should have a possible advantage in the draw.

      Anyway, the possible predicted advantages and disadvantages in the draw depend of course completely on the realised outcome of the draw. A group for special pot team France with for instance Colombia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Honduras can hardly be called a disadvantage.

      Delete
    8. I don't think it's fair to consign a team to a significantly higher probability of a difficult draw when there appears no compelling reason to do so. Historically the manner of a team's qualification whether "scraped" or comfortable has never come into the equation. In 1982 France themselves scraped past Republic of Ireland on goal difference and went onto the semi finals only losing a place in the final via a penalty shoot out.

      The FIFA ranking itself fluctuates all the time with one or two good or bad results sufficient to induce changes of 10 or 20 places. In applying to a World Cup finals tournament it would be fairer to apply only results in competitive games or the UEFA Euro model which at least prioritises recent competitive games, especially if one team are to be disadvantaged significantly - although, yes, chance can intervene and it might not turn out that way but the fact remains the deck is stacked against France from the outset which in my opinion is unfair when there is no compelling need to do so.

      Incidentally I have no particular affinity for France and would feel the same about any team, and was disappointed when the eliminated Ireland from the 2010 tournament ;)

      Delete
    9. Totally agree with you, Daniel. They did the same "special pot" nonsense with Serbia in 2006 and they ended up with the group from hell. The whole seeding/ranking system is a bit farcical anyway. I think some recent World Cup "form" should be considered (as it used to be) and not just a snapshot of the FIFA ranking. Does anyone seriously think that Switzerland, for example, should be seeded higher than Italy or the Netherlands? Is this simply by virtue of them winning a ridiculously weak qualifying group and having a couple of good friendly wins?

      Delete
    10. The 'good old' ways of determining the seeds for a WC-draw would have lead to the following seeds for Brazil:

      with the 2006-method: average of (WC10 * 2 + WC06) plus the average of (rankings of Dec 2011, Dec 2012 and Nov 2013):
      Spain 61.3
      Germany 60.7
      Argentina 55.3
      Netherlands 54.7
      Portugal 51.0
      Brazil 49.0 (host)
      England 47.0
      Uruguay 43.7
      ------------------------------
      Italy 42.3
      Switzerland 34.7
      Mexico 34.0
      Ghana 34.0
      France 32.3
      Chile 32.0
      Japan 29.3
      USA 29.0
      Cote d'Ivoire 26.7
      Greece 26.3
      Croatia 24.7
      Colombia 21.7
      Korea Republic 21.3
      Ecuador 19.3
      Russia 19.3
      Australia 18.3
      Algeria 16.7
      Belgium 14.0
      Bosnia-Herzegovina 12.7
      Nigeria 11.0
      Honduras 9.3
      Cameroon 8.0
      Iran 6.7
      Costa Rica 6.0

      The Netherlands, Portugal and England would be seeded instead of Colombia, Belgium and Switzerland.

      With the 2002-method: average of (WC10 * 3 + WC06 * 2 + WC02) plus the average of (rankings of Dec 2011, Dec 2012 and Nov 2013):
      Germany 60.8
      Spain 60.7
      Argentina 52.2
      Brazil 49.8 (host)
      Netherlands 49.5
      Portugal 48.8
      England 48.2
      Italy 44.0
      ------------------------------
      Uruguay 40.2
      Mexico 34.5
      Switzerland 33.2
      France 32.3
      Ghana 29.7
      USA 29.7
      Japan 29.3
      Chile 28.2
      Croatia 26.2
      Cote d'Ivoire 25.2
      Greece 25.0
      Korea Republic 23.2
      Colombia 21.7
      Ecuador 20.8
      Russia 20.8
      Belgium 17.2
      Australia 16.8
      Algeria 15.3
      Bosnia-Herzegovina 12.7
      Nigeria 11.0
      Cameroon 8.2
      Honduras 8.0
      Costa Rica 7.5
      Iran 6.7

      The Netherlands, Portugal, England and Italy would be seeded instead of Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay and Switzerland.

      Delete
    11. Using the last 2 or 3 world cups was not a good way to determine seedings either. The performance of nations that long ago has no relevance to the current world cup.

      Delete
  14. It's ironic how we Dutch first JUST missed out using the old ways, and now we JUST miss out on the new way! :-(

    ReplyDelete