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Friday, September 13, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I


Worst runner-up:

24.56% - Bulgaria
20.73% - Denmark
16.41% - Norway
13.81% - Slovenia
8.77% - Hungary
5.03% - Czech Republic
2.65% - Croatia
2.47% - Albania
2.37% - Romania
1% - Iceland
0.8% - Turkey
0.45% - Montenegro
0.43% - Ukraine
0.24% - Austria
0.16% - Sweden
0.07% - England
0.04% - Poland
0.01% - Armenia

Pot 2:

79.57% - France
49.37% - Romania
45.8% - Ukraine
45.26% - Iceland
31.65% - Bulgaria
28.88% - Sweden
26.58% - Hungary
15.55% - Austria
13.4% - Russia
11.88% - Turkey
11.66% - Norway
10.76% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
9.61% - Montenegro
6.08% - Greece
4.81% - Slovenia
4.63% - Denmark
1.65% - Poland
0.81% - Czech Republic
0.72% - Albania
0.37% - Switzerland
0.32% - Croatia
0.29% - Israel
0.2% - England
0.14% - Armenia
0.01% - Portugal

Pot 1:

94.3% - Croatia
65.91% - Portugal
60.81% - Greece
53.35% - Sweden
22.61% - Ukraine
22.35% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
20.39% - Russia
20.03% - France
18.84% - England
12.42% - Denmark
3.02% - Slovenia
2.73% - Belgium
1.82% - Germany
0.4% - Spain
0.37% - Norway
0.3% - Montenegro
0.11% - Romania
0.1% - Switzerland
0.07% - Turkey
0.05% - Hungary
0.02% - Czech Republic

Chances of being seeded if involved in the play-offs:

100% - Belgium
100% - Germany
100% - Spain
99.98% - Portugal
99.66% - Croatia
98.95% - England
90.91% - Greece
72.84% - Denmark
67.5% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
64.88% - Sweden
60.34% - Russia
38.57% - Slovenia
33.05% - Ukraine
21.28% - Switzerland
20.11% - France
3.08% - Norway
3.03% - Montenegro
2.41% - Czech Republic
0.59% - Turkey
0.22% - Romania
0.19% - Hungary
0% - Iceland
0% - Bulgaria
0% - Austria
0% - Poland
0% - Albania
0% - Israel
0% - Armenia

3 comments:

  1. Sorry for mistakenly posting in wrong thread.
    worst runner-up: Group E - Norway
    Playoffs:
    Croatia - Denmark
    Portugal - Ukraine
    Bosnia - Sweden
    France - Romania

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Edgar. Greetings from Bulgaria, and congratulations on maintaining the blog. Though this is my first post here, I've been a regular reader for quite some time.

    As the above simulations demonstrate, Bulgaria is the most likely eventual worst runner-up. Could you, and is it even possible for you to, calculate the chances of the Bulgarian team to end up as the worst runner-up *provided* they win their games against Armenia and the Czech Republic? Two wins will guarantee the runner-up place for Bulgaria as the team currently occupies the second position, one point ahead of Denmark. But what is the probability that the two wins will not suffice for a spot in the play-offs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3,5%.

      Norway 24,02% and Slovenia 20,26% would be most likely to end as worst runner-ups.

      Delete