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Friday, September 20, 2013

FIFA Ranking: October 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins




30/Sep Botswana - Burkina Faso 2 (Friendly)
05/Oct United Arab Emirates - Laos 1 (Friendly)
08/Oct Lebanon - Oman X (Friendly)
09/Oct Jordan - Kuwait 1 (Friendly)
09/Oct Qatar - Vietnam 1 (Friendly)
09/Oct Saudi Arabia - Bahrain 1 (Friendly)
09/Oct United Arab Emirates - Malaysia 1 (Friendly)
11/Oct Albania - Switzerland 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Andorra - Romania 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Argentina - Peru 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Armenia - Bulgaria X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Azerbaijan - Northern Ireland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Bosnia-Herzegovina - Liechtenstein 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Burkina Faso - Algeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Colombia - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Côte d'Ivoire - Senegal 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Croatia - Belgium 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Denmark - Italy 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Ecuador - Uruguay X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct England - Montenegro 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Estonia - Turkey 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Ethiopia - Nigeria 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Faroe Islands - Kazakhstan X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct France - Australia 1 (Friendly)
11/Oct Germany - Republic of Ireland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Ghana - Egypt 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Greece - Slovakia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Honduras - Costa Rica X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Iceland - Cyprus 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Lithuania - Latvia X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Luxembourg - Russia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Malta - Czech Republic 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Mexico - Panama 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Moldova - San Marino 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Netherlands - Hungary 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Portugal - Israel 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Serbia - Japan X (Friendly)
11/Oct Slovenia - Norway X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Spain - Belarus 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Sweden - Austria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Tunisia - Cameroon X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Ukraine - Poland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct USA - Jamaica 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Venezuela - Paraguay 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Oct Wales - FYR Macedonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Oct Korea Republic - Brazil 2 (Friendly)
15/Oct Azerbaijan - Russia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Belarus - Japan 2 (Friendly)
15/Oct Belgium - Wales 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Brazil - Zambia 1 (Friendly)
15/Oct Bulgaria - Czech Republic X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Canada - Australia 2 (Friendly)
15/Oct Chile - Ecuador 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Costa Rica - Mexico X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Cyprus - Albania X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Denmark - Malta 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct England - Poland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Faroe Islands - Austria 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct France - Finland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Greece - Liechtenstein 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Hong Kong - United Arab Emirates 2 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Hungary - Andorra 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Indonesia - China PR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Iran - Thailand 1 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Iraq - Saudi Arabia X (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Israel - Northern Ireland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Italy - Armenia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Jamaica - Honduras X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Jordan - Oman 1 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Korea Republic - Mali 1 (Friendly)
15/Oct Latvia - Slovakia X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Lebanon - Kuwait X (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Lithuania - Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Malaysia - Bahrain 2 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Montenegro - Moldova 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Norway - Iceland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Panama - USA X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Paraguay - Colombia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Peru - Bolivia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Portugal - Luxembourg 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Qatar - Yemen 1 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Republic of Ireland - Kazakhstan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Romania - Estonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct San Marino - Ukraine 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Scotland - Croatia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Serbia - FYR Macedonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Singapore - Syria 2 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Oct Spain - Georgia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Sweden - Germany X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Switzerland - Slovenia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Turkey - Netherlands 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Uruguay - Argentina X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Oct Uzbekistan - Vietnam 1 (Continental Qualifier)

12 comments:

  1. I'm Dewi from Wales, and appreciate all your work Edgar, but ELO ratings have Wales to win a match? Surely a mistake??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Dewi. There's no mistake. Wales have a better Elo rating than Macedonia and are at home.

      Delete
  2. I don't believe that Ghana will win over Egypt.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ghana is too much for Egypt. Egypt isn't what it used to be.

      Delete
  3. Burkina faso - Algeria : 1 !!!

    I don't think this , the result most probal 1-1 X

    ReplyDelete
  4. Any idea which pot Wales will be in for Euro 2016 after last night's results?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Difficult to say seeing as it has not yet been decided how many groups there will be and what sizes these groups will be. But as it stands, Wales is in 34th place of 53 teams with only the playoffs still to be counted. Gibraltar will be added making 54 teams, but France will not take place in the qualifying, so they're currently in 33rd place of 53 teams. Ref: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am hoping Scotland might sneak in to pot 3 after a good win over an out of sorts Croatia side who nevertheless have a high ranking. But I think I read somewhere on here on one of Ed's posts that Scotland were 99% probability of being pot 4. Still leaves 1% ! Not a huge difference between pot 3 and 4 anyway. There is usually a significant variation on the strength of teams you can draw in each pot so a favourable draw depends as much on sheer luck in that respect as much as what pot you are in. I might be wrong but I think Belgium were in pot 3 for the Brazil 2014 qualifiers.

      Delete
    2. I wouldn't bet anything on it. A couple of good matches have very little influence on 4 years of results that go to make up the ranking. Also, I don't think anything is final regarding the number of groups and sizes yet, so we have to wait for that to be certain.

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    3. Edgar has Scotland 100% in pot 4 regardless of recent results - http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/09/2016-uefa-euro-2016-qualifying-draw.html

      Delete
    4. @Daniel

      Croatia do have a high ranking, but the UEFA coefficient calculation doesn't take opponent strength into account. You get the same points for defeating Croatia away or San Marino at home.

      Scotland ended up in pot 4.

      Delete