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Friday, December 6, 2013

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (6 December 2013)

Next update: Spring 2013

Assumptions:

- AFC will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding



The July 2015 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2011 and July 2015. This means we're currently in the 0.5 time frame and things will start to get interesting.

This the July 2015 ranking (for AFC only) using matches played up to and including December 5th, 2013 and matches scheduled up to July 2014 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

For the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries, AFC used the performance based seeding for the first two rounds, then the July 2011 ranking for the group stage draw. This means that if the rules don't change, we already know the seeding for the first two rounds.

Looking to improve your FIFA ranking before the draw? Use the e-mail address from my profile to contact me.

Changes since the last update:

United Arab Emirates replace Korea Republic in the first pot.
Bahrain replace Tajikistan in the third pot.

First round (performance based)

Pot 1: Bangladesh, Yemen, India, Philippines, Maldives, Myanmar, Syria, Kyrgystan, Hong Kong, Nepal, Laos
Pot 2: Chinese Taipei, Mongolia, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Macau, Guam, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam

Second round (performance based)

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, China PR, Kuwait, Korea DPR, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Tajikistan, Singapore, Indonesia
Pot 2: Turkmenistan, Palestine, Malaysia, Vietnam + 11 winners from the first round

Third round (seeded using the FIFA ranking)

Assuming the seeded teams advance, this is how the pots would look like:

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Iran, Japan, United Arab Emirates, Jordan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China PR, Oman
Pot 3: Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon
Pot 4: Tajikistan, Korea DPR, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand

Rank - Team - Points

 1 Uzbekistan            285
 2 Iran                  281
 3 Japan                 276
 4 United Arab Emirates  237
 5 Jordan                221
 6 Korea Republic        215
 7 Australia             213
 8 Saudi Arabia          176
 9 China PR              172
10 Oman                  166
11 Qatar                 140
12 Kuwait                139
13 Bahrain               134
14 Iraq                  125
15 Lebanon               118
16 Afghanistan           112
17 Tajikistan            103
18 Korea DPR              90
19 India                  77
19 Syria                  77
21 Philippines            76
22 Kyrgyzstan             75
23 Vietnam                73
24 Singapore              71
25 Turkmenistan           67
26 Indonesia              65
27 Maldives               64
28 Hong Kong              59
29 Thailand               58
30 Pakistan               51
31 Nepal                  48
32 Palestine              46
33 Malaysia               45
34 Bangladesh             44
35 Guam                   41
36 Sri Lanka              37
37 Chinese Taipei         32
38 Myanmar                30
39 Laos                   25
40 Yemen                  19
41 Brunei Darussalam      15
41 Timor-Leste            15
43 Mongolia                6
44 Macau                   2
45 Bhutan                  0
45 Cambodia                0

4 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Proposed official new AFC qualification format: combine WCQ & ACQ!!!

    http://www.the-afc.com/en/about-afc/afc-departments/competitions-division/27547-revamp-of-afc-competitions.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. 1. WCQ cum ACQ preliminary round (if any): 47 teams -> 40 or 32 teams

    2. WCQ cum ACQ group stage: 47 or 40 or 32 teams -> 12 teams (also qualify to Asian Cup finals directly)

    3a. WCQ final round: 12 teams -> 4.5 teams to 2018 World Cup

    3b. ACQ final round: 24 unqualified to WC teams -> 12 teams to 2019 Asian Cup

    ReplyDelete
  4. Still can't work out how this will affect my NT - Australia. More games, less games, better or worse quality??? Impact on rankings? looking forward to more detail.

    ReplyDelete