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Friday, February 1, 2013

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 8 February 2013. 

59 matches left before the deadline. FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 February 2012.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results, Côte d'Ivoire will climb to 4th (best ever ranking for a team from Africa).

FIFA decided to consider CHAN matches as friendlies and they have added some CHAN games played in December 2012. That's why for instance Mauritania and Mauritius climb in the rankings.

Mauritania, South Africa and Belize will climb more than 30 places, Burkina Faso - 26, Congo, Mauritius, El Salvador and Congo DR - 15 or more.

Equatorial Guinea will drop 33 places, Gabon - 26, Angola - 17, Egypt 14, Guinea, Tanzania, Haiti and Algeria - 10 or more.



Probable February 2013 rank - Team - Probable February 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1590 0 -16
2 Germany 1413 0 -24
3 Argentina 1251 0 -39
4 Côte d'Ivoire 1170 10 174
5 Portugal 1166 2 22
6 Italy 1144 -2 -21
7 Netherlands 1136 1 12
8 England 1134 -2 -17
9 Colombia 1129 -4 -35
10 Croatia 1059 0 -5
11 Russia 1055 -2 -15
12 Greece 1047 -1 14
13 Mexico 1016 2 22
14 Switzerland 974 -1 -30
15 Uruguay 950 1 -25
16 France 942 1 -7
17 Brazil 938 1 -8
18 Ecuador 935 -6 -72
19 Ghana 900 7 112
20 Sweden 878 -1 8
21 Belgium 864 -1 -4
22 Denmark 851 1 32
23 Chile 815 7 41
24 Norway 796 0 -14
25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 784 1 -4
26 Japan 779 -5 -55
27 Czech Republic 774 2 -7
28 Hungary 758 4 8
28 USA 758 0 -24
30 Montenegro 756 1 0
31 Mali 735 -6 -72
32 Algeria 725 -10 -104
33 Romania 713 0 13
34 Paraguay 681 1 -1
35 Serbia 668 2 9
36 Australia 660 0 -14
37 Panama 647 9 53
38 Korea Republic 643 -4 -44
39 Peru 634 4 31
39 Republic of Ireland 634 2 25
41 Turkey 630 -1 3
42 Tunisia 612 11 42
43 Bolivia 607 -2 -2
44 Venezuela 599 11 38
45 Slovenia 592 2 1
46 Zambia 591 -7 -55
47 Bulgaria 590 3 5
48 Slovakia 589 -4 -6
49 Haiti 584 -11 -66
50 Central African Republic 581 1 0
51 Uzbekistan 575 5 20
52 South Africa 572 33 149
53 Ukraine 570 -9 -25
54 Nigeria 568 -2 -5
55 Costa Rica 559 11 44
56 Libya 546 -9 -45
57 Jamaica 544 1 -8
58 Iran 543 2 6
59 Honduras 533 0 -10
60 Albania 528 3 10
60 Poland 528 -4 -27
62 Sierra Leone 517 0 -9
63 Cape Verde Islands 512 7 26
64 Scotland 511 5 21
65 Togo 508 12 57
66 Burkina Faso 495 26 106
66 Israel 495 10 41
68 Egypt 490 -14 -76
69 Canada 485 -5 -32
70 Belarus 484 -5 -32
71 Austria 483 -3 -9
71 Cameroon 483 -4 -17
73 Guinea 482 -12 -45
74 Morocco 481 0 20
75 Gabon 478 -26 -110
76 Armenia 473 -1 16
77 Trinidad and Tobago 466 -6 -17
78 Wales 460 3 25
79 Georgia 446 -7 -35
80 Uganda 435 1 0
81 El Salvador 434 15 60
82 Estonia 426 1 -7
82 Senegal 426 -3 -13
84 FYR Macedonia 417 -4 -19
85 Finland 414 -1 -17
86 Congo DR 400 15 45
87 Cuba 399 1 0
88 China PR 395 -2 -20
89 Guatemala 394 -2 -18
90 Iraq 392 -1 0
91 New Zealand 390 0 0
92 Congo 388 17 63
93 Jordan 386 2 11
94 Benin 384 -1 0
95 Angola 381 -17 -62
96 Dominican Republic 378 -2 0
97 Iceland 370 -8 -22
98 Northern Ireland 368 0 1
99 United Arab Emirates 364 4 18
100 Korea DPR 361 -1 -2
101 Zimbabwe 359 1 5
102 Qatar 357 4 26
103 Niger 355 -6 -16
104 Sudan 343 -4 -18
105 New Caledonia 336 2 6
106 Equatorial Guinea 335 -33 -134
107 Oman 326 1 -2
108 Latvia 325 -4 -9
109 Suriname 311 3 0
110 Mozambique 310 3 2
111 Malawi 304 3 5
112 Ethiopia 303 -2 -13
113 Burundi 301 -9 -33
114 Kuwait 295 6 19
114 Saudi Arabia 295 4 18
116 Antigua and Barbuda 293 -1 0
117 Lithuania 287 -1 3
118 Azerbaijan 283 0 6
119 Bahrain 280 -2 -2
119 Liberia 280 -8 -32
121 Turkmenistan 275 8 21
122 St. Kitts and Nevis 271 -1 0
123 Namibia 268 3 9
124 Guyana 267 -2 0
125 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 266 -2 0
126 Botswana 262 -2 -2
127 Puerto Rico 248 4 0
128 Rwanda 247 9 11
129 Syria 243 7 6
130 Lebanon 241 0 -12
131 Belize 240 33 130
131 Tajikistan 240 4 0
133 Vietnam 239 1 -3
134 Kenya 238 -7 -18
135 Moldova 235 -7 -20
136 Tanzania 234 -12 -30
137 Thailand 233 1 5
138 Cyprus 232 -7 -16
138 Sao Tome e Principe 232 -5 -11
140 Grenada 222 -1 0
141 Chad 221 0 9
142 Tahiti 215 -2 0
143 Kazakhstan 198 -1 -2
144 Barbados 188 -1 -9
145 Gambia 187 -2 -10
145 Nicaragua 187 0 -5
147 Philippines 173 0 -3
148 St. Lucia 168 1 0
149 Solomon Islands 166 1 0
150 Aruba 163 1 0
151 Luxembourg 160 -3 -12
151 Malta 160 -5 -18
153 Palestine 155 -1 1
154 Liechtenstein 153 0 7
155 Faroe Islands 151 -2 0
156 Bermuda 139 1 0
157 Singapore 134 -3 -12
158 Malaysia 130 0 -4
158 Maldives 130 1 0
160 Dominica 124 1 0
161 Lesotho 121 -1 -6
162 Indonesia 117 -6 -28
163 Hong Kong 115 0 4
164 Myanmar 112 -2 -2
165 Nepal 109 5 26
166 Yemen 106 -1 0
167 India 103 -1 3
168 Vanuatu 102 -1 3
169 Mauritania 94 37 91
170 Bangladesh 90 -2 0
171 Chinese Taipei 87 1 5
171 Laos 87 -1 4
173 Fiji 85 -4 0
174 Samoa 74 -1 0
175 Bahamas 66 -1 0
175 Guinea-Bissau 66 -1 0
175 Montserrat 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 -1 0
179 Swaziland 63 -1 2
180 Madagascar 55 -1 0
180 Mongolia 55 -1 0
182 Cambodia 53 2 3
182 Guam 53 -1 0
184 Brunei Darussalam 52 -2 0
184 Timor-Leste 52 -2 0
186 Mauritius 48 16 35
187 Tonga 44 -2 0
188 Afghanistan 39 -2 0
188 US Virgin Islands 39 -2 0
190 Comoros 38 4 9
190 Papua New Guinea 38 -2 0
192 Pakistan 37 -3 0
193 Sri Lanka 36 -3 0
194 British Virgin Islands 34 -3 0
195 Cayman Islands 33 -3 0
196 American Samoa 30 -3 0
197 Eritrea 24 -2 0
197 Macau 24 0 1
197 Seychelles 24 -2 0
200 Kyrgyzstan 20 -2 0
200 South Sudan 20 -2 0
202 Cook Islands 16 -2 0
203 Somalia 14 -2 0
204 Andorra 11 -1 0
204 Djibouti 11 -1 0
206 Anguilla 4 -1 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

41 comments:

  1. Hi Edagr, could you please post the probable October 2013 rankings (may be used for seeding in the WC)

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    Replies
    1. Hi Amir, I will update the October 2013 rankings after the 2013 AFCON ends.

      Delete
  2. And there goes Cote d'Ivoire's nr 4 spot in the FIFA ranking... Will probably hold on to the 14-15 spot in the rankings, but will lose 12 points!

    Ghana have a shot to be no 1 ranked in Africa, but looks like after this AFCON African teams won't help their world cup rankings.

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  3. So with Ivory Coast out, are we likely to have a WC with three American seeds (Bra,Arg,Uru) and three Europeans (Spain,Germany,Italy,Netherlands,Portugal). I guess Colombia and England also have possibilities but no African team is likely to make top 7.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ??? Uruguay??? Uruguay is way of the mark. They are currently 16th in the ranking and in all likelihood will drop to 19th in the next FIFA ranking. What's more all those great results from 2009-2011 will be dropping in significance, thus making Uruguay's terrible recent form make up most of the points total.

      Yes, 3 South American teams can make the first pot. But it most likely won't be Uruguay. Colombia is the best bet at the moment.

      Two teams from other CONFEDs have a shot at making the top 7 in the rankings:
      1. Mexico - they have a Gold Cup around a corner, a qualification they are sure to dominate plus can pick up multiple points at the CONFED Cup.

      2. Ghana or Mali - they will likely torpedo in the top 15 if either of the two win the next 2 games. If they perform at the Confed Cup they could easily get a boost to a top 7 ranked position. If Ghana manages this they have the additional bonus of being the 7th best performing team in the last two world cups, thus any seeding formula FIFA has used in the past 20 or so years has Ghana as a seed.

      If I were to bet I would say top 8 by November 2013 will be: Brasil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Italy, Colombia, Mexico and either England or Portugal.

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    2. All true World Cups must include Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, ideally as top seeds. According to Edgar's provisional November 2013 ranking below, Uruguay are still in 6th spot. They will be under great preasure to do well in the world cup qualifiers this year though to even qualify, but if they do well this year I think they will be in the top 7. Current seeds would according to Edgar's ranking be Brazil, Spain, Germany, Arg, Por, Ned, Uru, Ita.

      Note however that England is only one point behind Italy and that both Portugal and Uruguay are struggling in qualification. It will be intereresting to see Edgar's next November 2013 ranking, I think that it will include ANC and this week's friendlies.

      1 Spain 835
      2 Germany 763
      3 Argentina 741
      4 Portugal 615
      5 Netherlands 598
      6 Uruguay 587
      7 Italy 586
      8 England 585
      9 Greece 572
      10 Russia 568
      11 Colombia 563
      12 Croatia 538
      13 France 538
      14 Switzerland 522
      15 Côte d'Ivoire 521
      16 Sweden 484
      17 Brazil 481
      18 Mexico 481
      19 Japan 481
      20 Ecuador 461

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    3. "All true World Cups must include Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay (...)"

      Uruguay just seems very out of place in this company. Just no. The World cup does fine with or without Uruguay.

      I know Uruguay is still in the running but unless they have a sudden spike in form they are looking bound to miss out to Italy and England. Plus Mexico with the Gold Cup around the corner is looking a great bet for multiple points.

      Delete
  4. That should read 5 European teams

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. With the predicted results in the semis and the finals of the African Cup of Nation, and the predicted results in the friendlies, I come to the conclusion that African countries have a strong position to get seeded teams in the WC in 2014. But it's still a long, long way to the November 2013 ranking and a lot of qualifiying matches need to be played. And those matches will certainly affect the rankings.

    My November 2013 ranking is as follows:

    1.Ghana 1085
    2. Côte d'Ivoire 1073
    3. Mali 1006
    4. Spain 918
    5. Germany 860
    6. Nigeria 820
    7. Argentina 769
    8. Panama 761
    9. Cuba 722
    10. Mexico 704
    11. England 695
    12. Portugal 674
    13. Costa Rica 653
    14. Croatia 633
    15. Colombia 632
    16. South Africa 632
    17. Greece 620
    18. Italy 620
    19. Netherlands 617
    20. Tunisia 608

    Brazil is 45th on the list. Again, please note this list contains games played (real results and predicted results) until February 10th and does not contain the games to be played in the upcoming months.

    So according to this list, the seeded teams would be Brazil, Spain, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Germany, Nigeria and Argentina.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UEFA and CONMEBOL teams are set to get big points and claw back into the top 8. If Ghana win they will be in a great position to make a seeded slot. Doubly enforced by the fact that they have been the 7th best team in the past 2 World Cups (vide the 2006 seeding criteria).

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    2. Just quickly calculated the possible results of the games up to November 24th, the deadline for the November 2013 ranking, based on the games that are published on FIFA.com and calculating the results of the Confederations Cup to predict the semis and the finals.

      It seems the European and South-American teams will catch up on the African teams. The ranking of November 2013 would roughly be as follows:

      1. Spain
      2. Argentina
      3. Croatia (!)
      4. Italy
      5. Colombia
      6. Germany
      7. Netherlands
      8. Portugal
      9. England
      10. Mexico
      11. Greece
      12. Ecuador
      13. Belgium
      14. Switzerland
      15. Uruguay
      16. Sweden
      17. Ghana
      18. Côte d'Ivoire
      19. Norway
      20. USA

      So that would mean that Brazil (33th on this list), Spain, Argentina, Croatia, Italy, Colombia, Germany and Netherlands would be seeded.

      Croatia being the big surprise at the seeded teams part, where Portugal or England fall out.

      The African champion would suffer from the Confederations Cup, being in one group with Uruguay and Spain which are the likely favorites to go through to the semis.

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    3. I didn't know they'd drawn the Confederations Cup groups already.

      Spain vs Tahiti. Ooooh...

      20th June. Impending massacre?

      Group A is interesting though. Brazil vs Japan vs Mexico vs Italy. Any of those are strong enough to advance.

      Ghana winning the ACON is suddenly very desirable to me. They may take revenge on Uruguay. I don't want to miss a minute of that match if it comes about, what an incentive for Ghana to take the ACON. Spain will surely advance, and Tahiti should be fodder, so that will be a straight KO match you would imagine.

      Hey Tobcoach, if it's not too much trouble, what results have you predicted for England?

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    4. BTW, when Tahiti qualified to the 2009 U20 World Cup, they got this group:

      Spain, Nigeria, Venezuela.

      Spain are in the Confed group, Nigeria could end up in it as well, and Uruguay are a South American team like Venezuela.

      I wonder if anyone from that U20 World Cup squad is the Tahiti team, I would imagine there surely would be some. I wouldn't have thought they'd be too happy having to face the same teams again. This chance to face top teams probably won't come around again.

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    5. Oh, and Spain and Venezuela both won 8-0, while Nigeria won 5-0.

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    6. The key to whichever African team making the seeds is doing well at the Confed. Would you really count Nigeria or Ghana out against Uruguay?

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    7. I am more curious about your predictions now, Tobcoach. I am guessing tonight's victory over Brazil was not in your lists.

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    8. As a matter of fact Lorric, I did calculate a win for England in my predictions. As for the predicted results for England until November 2013, I will post them later today.

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    9. Predictions for England in the matches up to the November 2013 rankings:

      06-02-13 England - Brazil (Friendly) 1
      22-03-13 San Marino - England (WorldCup Qualifier) 2
      26-03-13 Montenegro - England (WorldCup Qualifier) 2
      29-05-13 England - Republic of Ireland (Friendly) 1
      02-06-13 Brazil - England (Friendly) X
      14-08-13 England - Scotland (Friendly) 1
      06-09-13 England - Moldova (WorldCup Qualifier) 1
      10-09-13 Ukraine - England (WorldCup Qualifier) 2
      11-10-13 England - Montenegro (WorldCup Qualifier) 1
      15-10-13 England - Poland (WorldCup Qualifier) 1

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    10. Almost maximum points and it's not good enough to be seeded?! How can that be? If England weren't currently in a seeded position right now, it might be more understandable. How can this be, especially when Croatia can make that massive jump?

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    11. Idiots from Croatian football federation arranged a friendly with Liechtenstein in August/September 2013, so you don't need to worry about Croatia being seeded. Even if we win all qualifying matches, CFF will screw it up somehow.

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    12. I don't know, looking at the friendlies, the 4-0 over Korea Republic caught my eye. Haven't seen it, but the score over a competant and improving World Cup level team is impressive. And Croatia's campaign is off to a great start. I guess it's Croatia's group that's the reason they can make the big jump, there's no team outside the top 100 in FIFA there, lots of points up for grabs, while England have Moldova and San Marino. Wales are the lowest ranked, currently at 81st. Rich pickings available. I wouldn't trade groups though, I'll take the greater chance of qualification over the greater chance to be seeded.

      Croatia took a friendly with Liechtenstein in 2009 as well. Though I think that one was more to do with only being able to take the scraps from the table after hoping to have that window filled with a World Cup qualifying playoff. I wonder why they are taking another friendly with Liechtenstein now? Croatia normally line up good opposition in friendlies from what I can see.

      Comparison - England's opponents:

      31 - Montenegro
      44 - Ukraine
      56 - Poland
      128 - Moldova
      207 - San Marino

      Croatia's opponents:

      20 - Belgium
      37 - Serbia
      69 - Scotland
      80 - Macedonia
      81 - Wales

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    13. There was some kind of a deal with Liechtensteiners to reciprocate friendly matches, first in Croatia and then in Liechtenstein. Why would they do such a thing with one of the worst teams in Europe is beyond me. Pure idiocy I guess.

      Croatia's qualifying group is not as tough as it seems. True, there are no minnows in it, but there is no team with a habit of qualifying to major tournaments, other than Croatia, either. Belgium could become that, but they are yet to prove themselves.

      Delete
    14. Yeah, it's not brutal at the top, but it's tough.

      Interestingly, every team in your group won their friendly match. I bet that doesn't happen very often, maybe even never before every team in a modern qualifying group wins on the same matchday.

      4 Croatia - Korea Republic 0
      2 Belgium - Slovakia 1
      1 Cyprus - Serbia 3
      1 Scotland - Estonia 0
      3 FYR Macedonia - Denmark 0 (!)
      2 Wales - Austria 1

      Oh well, it's more ranking points up for grabs for everyone!

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    15. It looks like England will be moving up into 4th in the next ranking. If Tobcoach's set of results were to come out based on that and it not be enough to get seeded, that would really sting.

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    16. Lorric, you know what they say about predictions: they'll never come true exaclty as predicted. And I'm sure the predictions of Edgar will be more accurate than mine, so there's hope for England after all...

      We're 9 months away from November and a lot can and will chance until then.

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    17. Tobcoach, why do you think that FIFA will use November rankings? Last time around they used October 2009 rankings so that teams participating in November play-offs wouldn't get unfair advantage in collecting points.

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    18. I hope they do that again.

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    19. Edgar believes it will be October, so October it is. Will make not much a difference I believe, but after the publication of the February rankings I will take a further look.

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    20. Tobcoach,

      interesting preview at the WC 2014 seeding-list.
      Based on the low position of Brazil in your approach I presume you have determined the results of all future matches between now and October on the FIFA-ranking positions.

      I have done the same exercise but with results- predictions based on the ELO-ranking and taking the October ranking as deadline. Here's my seeding-list:
      1. Spain
      2. Croatia
      3. Argentina
      4. Germany
      5. Netherlands
      6. Colombia
      7. Mexico
      8. Brazil
      9. England
      10. Portugal
      11. Italy
      12. Uruguay

      Striking differences are the positions of Italy (in your case seeded, here non-seeded), Mexico (here seeded) and Brazil (you have them at position 33, I have them at 8th position).

      Furthermore, England is on the verge of being seeded. I predict for almost all their matches the same results as you did, but the friendly against Brazil results in a loss for England according to ELO. If they manage a draw or win, then England will be seeded at the expense of Mexico.

      Important to note is of course that the matches for the Gold Cup in July are not incorporated in this preview. Mexico could benefit to some extent from these matches, so it will be interesting to do this exercise again when that match-schedule is known.

      Delete
    21. Still no luck for England.

      Still, it would be fun to see how people react to it, to the "crazy" World rankings, if we won all the matches and slipped out of the seeds.

      Delete
  7. rotfl. AND THERE GOES ANY DISCUSSION ABOUT AN AFRICAN SEED :)

    Unless Nigeria win the final and then - I dunno - win the Confed Cup.

    If they win against Burkina Faso I believe they will have 764 points. They would need to pick up loads of points at the Confed to make the top 8 (ie beating Spain... btw you think Spain want revenge for 1998?)...

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  8. How many ranking points will India get if they win Against Chinese Taipei, Guam and Myanmar in the Afc Challenge Cup qualifiers in March as they are termed as Asian Cup qualifiers?

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    Replies
    1. Anon, each match would then be 2.5 x 3 x (200-150) x 0.86 = 322.5. India would have 11 matches at that point for the 2013 cycle, so it would be about a 90 point gain without accounting for changes due to derating of past matches.

      Delete
    2. To be precise...
      If India wins their three Challenge Cup qualifiers they will have 218 FIFA-points in the March ranking, a gain of 120 points and a big jump from their current 167th spot to somewhere around 140.

      Delete
  9. Is it possible for Russia to be seeded? Say they draw with Portugal but win the rest of their qualifying games?

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    Replies
    1. Well Sam,

      according to ELO Russia will do exactly that what you described: a draw with Portugal and wins in the rest of their qualifying matches (and a friendly loss to Brazil March 25th in London).
      But with these predicted results Russia will be ranked 19th in the October ranking: far from being seeded if ELO's word is law.

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    2. Portugal/Bosnia-Herzegovina III in the playoffs?

      Russia have Portugal by the balls right now. They look great, while Portugal look weak.

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    3. Wait a minute. Now this is getting really confusing. I thought England was bad, but how do Russia, currently ranked 10th, tie Portugal and win all their qualifiers and drop to 19th?

      Delete
  10. Lorric,

    Russia will have 977 points in October according to ELO's predicted results for them. There are 18 countries with more than 977 points in October according to ELO's predicted results for these countries.

    The same calculation shoots for instance Croatia to second spot. And Sweden to 14th, Bosnia to 16th and Norway to 18th spot in October.
    Please keep in mind that this is a picture of how the October rankings will look like if ELO's predictions are realized for every match to be played between now and October 14th (and at the moment included in the fixture list on FIFA.com).
    I don't need to tell you how the FIFA-points are calculated given a set of match-results, do I :-) ?

    Anyway, not all predictions will of course be correct (and the Gold Cup is totally ignored), so the final picture will be different in some degree. It's just to get a feeling what might happen, given a best guess for future match results.
    I will try to update this preview every time a major match day is played.

    ReplyDelete