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Saturday, June 9, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador


June 2018 rank - Country - June 2018 points - Minimum points - Maximum points


1 Germany 1558 1150 1921
2 Brazil 1431 1224 2048
3 Belgium 1298 983 1805
4 Portugal 1274 1051 1761
5 Argentina 1241 978 1854
6 Switzerland 1199 1022 1826
7 France 1198 959 1757
8 Poland 1183 985 1798
9 Chile 1135 918 918
10 Spain 1126 992 1772
11 Peru 1125 963 1767
12 Denmark 1051 836 1664
12 England 1051 962 1761
14 Uruguay 1018 853 1641
15 Mexico 989 831 1468
16 Colombia 986 809 1696
17 Netherlands 981 823 823
18 Wales 953 850 850
19 Italy 951 846 846
20 Croatia 945 861 1684
21 Tunisia 910 690 1548
22 Iceland 908 780 1615
23 Costa Rica 884 659 1361
24 Sweden 880 754 1609
25 USA 873 783 824
26 Austria 845 795 854
27 Senegal 838 709 1387
28 Slovakia 804 740 740
29 Northern Ireland 803 762 762
30 Romania 782 798 798
31 Republic of Ireland 777 765 765
32 Paraguay 773 841 905
33 Venezuela 755 779 779
34 Serbia 751 594 1474
35 Ukraine 733 762 762
36 Australia 718 607 1425
37 Iran 708 656 1345
38 Turkey 706 669 669
38 Congo DR 706 700 700
40 Bosnia-Herzegovina 693 661 661
41 Morocco 686 638 1144
42 Scotland 660 656 656
43 Montenegro 652 609 609
44 Greece 650 594 594
45 Egypt 649 569 1331
46 Czech Republic 641 657 657
47 Ghana 624 636 636
48 Nigeria 618 582 1133
49 Cameroon 614 561 561
49 Bulgaria 614 639 639
51 Hungary 612 524 570
52 Burkina Faso 604 585 585
53 Norway 596 653 653
54 Jamaica 588 628 628
55 Panama 571 494 1196
56 Slovenia 558 546 546
57 Korea Republic 544 510 1082
58 Albania 538 456 456
59 Bolivia 536 510 565
60 Ecuador 524 401 401
61 Japan 521 489 1179
62 Honduras 503 554 554
63 Finland 486 492 528
64 Mali 484 449 449
65 Cape Verde Islands 478 523 523
66 Algeria 474 442 442
67 Saudi Arabia 465 390 974
68 Guinea 463 434 434
68 Cote d'Ivoire 463 458 458
70 Russia 457 373 1335
71 FYR Macedonia 451 495 495
72 El Salvador 442 308 308
73 Syria 440 441 441
74 South Africa 428 410 410
75 China PR 423 428 428
76 Zambia 420 440 453
77 United Arab Emirates 418 418 418
78 Belarus 417 351 392
79 Canada 411 315 315
79 Lebanon 411 423 423
81 Curacao 408 377 377
82 Uganda 403 401 401
83 Congo 393 391 391
84 Oman 391 409 409
85 Gabon 390 398 398
85 Luxembourg 390 427 427
87 Cyprus 384 372 372
88 Benin 379 365 365
89 Iraq 377 386 386
90 Faroe Islands 376 354 354
91 Trinidad and Tobago 370 398 398
92 Kyrgyzstan 363 421 421
93 Israel 362 340 340
94 Estonia 359 350 384
95 Uzbekistan 354 360 360
96 Georgia 352 336 336
97 India 350 311 333
98 Qatar 348 314 314
99 Palestine 347 336 336
100 Armenia 338 322 322
101 Libya 336 359 359
102 Vietnam 334 299 299
103 Niger 323 340 340
104 Haiti 322 360 360
105 Azerbaijan 321 286 307
106 Madagascar 308 274 274
107 Mauritania 304 291 291
108 Central African Republic 303 272 272
108 Korea DPR 303 314 314
110 Jordan 296 313 313
111 Sierra Leone 292 216 216
112 Kenya 291 289 307
113 Bahrain 289 291 291
114 Mozambique 282 250 250
115 Philippines 280 266 266
116 Namibia 277 248 248
117 Kazakhstan 273 304 304
118 Zimbabwe 265 219 259
119 Tajikistan 264 257 257
120 New Zealand 256 283 283
121 Guinea-Bissau 255 201 201
122 Thailand 248 221 221
123 Chinese Taipei 247 224 224
123 Malawi 247 233 233
125 Togo 241 237 237
126 Antigua and Barbuda 239 213 213
126 Lithuania 239 217 274
128 Sudan 232 244 244
129 Latvia 230 228 253
130 Andorra 229 162 162
130 Turkmenistan 229 274 274
132 Nicaragua 228 202 202
133 Yemen 227 217 217
134 Swaziland 222 175 175
135 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 205 205
136 Rwanda 216 237 237
137 Angola 209 229 229
138 Myanmar 206 199 199
139 Botswana 205 209 209
140 Tanzania 200 224 224
141 Kosovo 197 209 209
142 Hong Kong 195 190 190
143 Solomon Islands 190 162 162
143 Equatorial Guinea 190 180 180
145 Afghanistan 188 215 215
146 Guatemala 180 188 188
147 Lesotho 175 189 189
148 Burundi 174 186 186
149 Comoros 172 178 178
150 Maldives 171 157 157
151 Ethiopia 166 175 175
152 Dominican Republic 162 157 157
153 Suriname 154 154 154
154 New Caledonia 150 132 132
155 Mauritius 140 141 141
156 South Sudan 132 115 115
157 Tahiti 130 130 130
158 Liberia 129 155 155
159 Kuwait 128 121 121
160 Barbados 127 113 113
161 Nepal 118 93 93
162 Vanuatu 117 117 117
163 Belize 115 79 79
164 Indonesia 111 76 76
165 Fiji 104 105 105
166 Cambodia 103 62 62
166 Papua New Guinea 103 73 73
168 Grenada 102 74 74
169 Singapore 99 99 99
170 St. Lucia 95 45 45
171 Malaysia 93 93 93
172 Gambia 92 91 91
173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 89 62 62
173 Puerto Rico 89 101 101
175 Moldova 88 82 82
175 Chad 88 88 88
177 Dominica 86 58 58
178 Bermuda 82 52 52
178 Laos 82 85 85
180 Liechtenstein 80 74 74
181 Cuba 75 62 62
182 Guyana 73 83 83
183 Bhutan 68 68 68
184 Malta 65 65 65
185 Macau 60 66 66
186 Mongolia 51 49 49
186 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 51 59 59
188 Aruba 48 49 49
188 Seychelles 48 60 60
190 Guam 45 35 35
190 Timor-Leste 45 45 45
192 American Samoa 38 38 38
192 Cook Islands 38 38 38
194 Bangladesh 35 33 33
195 Brunei Darussalam 34 34 34
195 Gibraltar 34 41 41
197 Djibouti 32 27 27
197 Samoa 32 32 32
199 US Virgin Islands 18 18 18
200 Sri Lanka 17 17 17
201 Pakistan 10 10 10
202 Cayman Islands 8 9 9
203 San Marino 8 8 8
204 Montserrat 4 4 4
204 British Virgin Islands 4 4 4
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Anguilla 0 0 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

7 comments:

  1. FIFA switches to using the Elo method for their rankings, effective immediately:
    https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/revision-of-the-fifa-coca-cola-world-ranking.pdf?cloudid=jgxjkdrj1jfwyunjbkha

    We are looking forward to the new July 2018 preview as this one is no longer valid. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. The major reform of the FIFA ranking is finally here. Thanks nogomet.

    At first glance: almost the same as the elo ratings calculation but with following differences:
    - no effect of home advantage here;
    - no effect of goals scored (goal difference) here;
    - more types of matches are distinguished here;
    - the difference in ratings is divided by 600 (instead of 400 as in elo). This can work out both ways: points to exchange per match could be more or less than with elo;
    - it is not completely a zero-sum approach: losses in knock-out rounds of final competitions are excluded from the calculation.

    I will work out the consequences. A new preview of the July ranking will follow soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From all the differences mentioned the most worrysome is the non-zero sum approach. That will definitely generate a 'rating inflation'...

      Nevertheless, it still looks like a positive change overall. Baby steps ;)

      Delete
    2. The new calculation system will be used after the World Cup according to the FIFA website. No need to change your preview this time.

      Delete
    3. In this item it is said that "a system that was today approved and will thus be inaugurated with the first official ranking following the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia.".
      I think they mean the July ranking by that. And that means that all matches normally calculated with the June ranking (all matches from June 4th onwards) now have to be calculated with the new method.

      Delete
  3. I see a problem already with the exclusion of losses in KO rounds.
    The score of the top teams will go up with time and there will be a growing gap with the other teams.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No Reason for the gap between the teams to grow, Elo difference converge into the real difference anyway...

      Delete