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Saturday, June 9, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

2018-06-11 Senegal - Korea Republic; Friendly; X
2018-06-11 Belgium - Costa Rica; Friendly; 1
2018-06-12 Japan - Paraguay; Friendly; X
2018-06-12 Poland - Lithuania; Friendly; 1
2018-06-14 Russia - Saudi Arabia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-15 Egypt - Uruguay; World Cup; 2
2018-06-15 Morocco - Iran; World Cup; X
2018-06-15 Portugal - Spain; World Cup; X
2018-06-16 France - Australia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-16 Peru - Denmark; World Cup; X
2018-06-16 Argentina - Iceland; World Cup; 1
2018-06-16 Croatia - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
2018-06-17 Brazil - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
2018-06-17 Costa Rica - Serbia; World Cup; X
2018-06-17 Germany - Mexico; World Cup; 1
2018-06-18 Sweden - Korea Republic; World Cup; X
2018-06-18 Belgium - Panama; World Cup; 1
2018-06-18 Tunisia - England; World Cup; 2
2018-06-19 Russia - Egypt; World Cup; 1
2018-06-19 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
2018-06-19 Poland - Senegal; World Cup; 1
2018-06-20 Uruguay - Saudi Arabia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-20 Iran - Spain; World Cup; 2
2018-06-20 Portugal - Morocco; World Cup; 1
2018-06-21 Denmark - Australia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-21 France - Peru; World Cup; 1
2018-06-21 Argentina - Croatia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-22 Nigeria - Iceland; World Cup; 2
2018-06-22 Brazil - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
2018-06-22 Serbia - Switzerland; World Cup; 2
2018-06-23 Germany - Sweden; World Cup; 1
2018-06-23 Korea Republic - Mexico; World Cup; 2
2018-06-23 Belgium - Tunisia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-24 England - Panama; World Cup; 1
2018-06-24 Japan - Senegal; World Cup; X
2018-06-24 Poland - Colombia; World Cup; 2
2018-06-25 Saudi Arabia - Egypt; World Cup; X
2018-06-25 Uruguay - Russia; World Cup; 1
2018-06-25 Iran - Portugal; World Cup; 2
2018-06-25 Spain - Morocco; World Cup; 1
2018-06-26 Australia - Peru; World Cup; 2
2018-06-26 Denmark - France; World Cup; 2
2018-06-26 Iceland - Croatia; World Cup; X
2018-06-26 Nigeria - Argentina; World Cup; 2
2018-06-27 Serbia - Brazil; World Cup; 2
2018-06-27 Switzerland - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
2018-06-27 Korea Republic - Germany; World Cup; 2
2018-06-27 Mexico - Sweden; World Cup; X
2018-06-28 England - Belgium; World Cup; X
2018-06-28 Panama - Tunisia; World Cup; X
2018-06-28 Japan - Poland; World Cup; 2
2018-06-28 Senegal - Colombia; World Cup; 2
2018-06-30 Uruguay - Portugal; World Cup; Portugal pso win
2018-06-30 Spain - Russia; World Cup; 1
2018-07-01 France - Croatia; World Cup; 1
2018-07-01 Argentina - Peru; World Cup; 1
2018-07-02 Brazil - Mexico; World Cup; 1
2018-07-02 Germany - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
2018-07-03 England - Poland; World Cup; 1
2018-07-03 Colombia - Belgium; World Cup; Colombia pso win
2018-07-06 Portugal - France; World Cup; France pso win
2018-07-06 Brazil - England; World Cup; 1
2018-07-07 Spain - Argentina; World Cup; Spain pso win
2018-07-07 Germany - Colombia; World Cup; 1
2018-07-10 France - Brazil; World Cup; 2
2018-07-11 Spain - Germany; World Cup; Germany pso win
2018-07-14 France - Spain; World Cup; Spain pso win
2018-07-15 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Maybe you've mentioned this somewhere before but how do you determine that the expected result is a win/draw/loss given the ELO rating. I'm quite familiar with the calculation method of the ELO rating so no need to explain that, but how do you judge from an expectation value between 0 and 1 that the country is expected to win for example? Do you have a limit like 0.6 above which you assume a country will win the match? And anything between 0.6 and 0.4 is considered a draw. Or is it more subtle than that?

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  2. Hi Homer,

    I determined over a very large sample of matches with their elo home team win expectancy the cumulative probability distribution as a function of the home team win expectancy. It got me two values for the home team win expectancy where the probability equals 33.33% and 66.67%. I made separate distributions for friendlies and non-friendlies btw.

    The values for the home win expectancy are:
    non-friendlies: win - 0.6093 - draw - 0.3908 - loss
    friendlies: win - 0.6339 - draw - 0.3661 - loss

    So, disappointingly blunt, this approach :)

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. OK, thanks! Sounds like at least you used some means to get to your numbers rather than just stick a finger in the air, good job!

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