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Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis

To get some more numerical insight in the effects of the new calculation method I've calculated the last 8 years of matches counting for the FIFA-ranking with the new calculation method.

Starting values for all matches from May 24th 2010 were determined, based on the May 2010 FIFA ranking positions, in the same way as was done by FIFA last Summer: the first team gets 1600 points (number one Brazil's actual FIFA rating at the time was 1611), the next team gets 4 points less. Teams on the same position get the same starting value.
All International Match Calendar windows from 2010 onwards were determined to correctly apply the I-factor of 10 for friendlies falling inside such a window.


Each resulting monthly ranking from July 2010 to October 2018 was determined. So f.i. the June 2018 ranking included two complete World Cup cycles (2010-2014 and 2014-2018, WC finals at the start of each cycle) calculated with the new method.

First the complete table with differences in ranking positions for each years June ranking computed as FIFA-ranking position minus ranking position according to the new method (teams are ordered by June 2018 FIFA-ranking):


FIFA - new jul-10 jun-11 jun-12 jun-13 jun-14 jun-15 jun-16 jun-17 jun-18  FIFA 6/18    new 6/18
Germany 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 1
Brazil -2 1 1 17 0 3 5 -1 0 2 2
Belgium -10 -19 0 -22 -15 -13 -12 -6 -9 3 12
Portugal 1 1 2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 4 5
Argentina 1 5 1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 1 5 4
Switzerland -6 -1 -7 -7 -13 -7 -4 -8 -10 6 16
France -4 -4 -5 2 1 0 6 1 1 7 6
Poland -1 13 12 10 13 -19 -15 -11 -12 8 20
Chile -2 14 2 8 3 9 -1 -2 0 9 9
Spain 0 -1 0 0 0 5 2 6 7 10 3
Peru -15 2 -4 -7 -2 15 13 -4 -7 11 18
England -1 -3 -1 3 3 5 1 2 5 12 7
Denmark -12 -17 -18 -9 -8 -3 0 9 -15 12 27
Uruguay 0 10 -3 8 -3 0 0 2 0 14 14
Mexico 8 1 2 4 0 9 5 9 7 15 8
Colombia 6 20 -3 -13 -7 -2 -4 -2 6 16 10
Netherlands 0 1 2 2 11 2 9 19 7 17 10
Wales 6 28 -37 -29 -32 -41 -34 -34 -30 18 48
Italy -3 -8 0 1 1 1 -1 2 6 19 13
Croatia 5 -2 -3 -6 1 1 11 3 3 20 17
Tunisia 7 -2 -10 -15 -6 -20 -2 -8 -17 21 38
Iceland -10 22 30 -29 -35 -35 -34 -28 -29 22 51
Costa Rica 10 11 14 -2 -11 -5 2 1 4 23 19
Sweden 1 -7 -5 6 8 12 4 5 1 24 23
USA 4 13 12 10 4 14 16 7 10 25 15
Austria -8 -7 -9 11 -19 -32 -31 -19 -26 26 52
Senegal 14 -20 -12 15 3 -20 -14 -21 -16 27 43
Slovakia -5 -9 -4 13 -1 -14 -8 -13 -3 28 31
Northern Ireland 4 4 32 37 5 -30 -38 -33 -29 29 58
Romania 14 19 16 1 -4 -14 -8 4 -11 30 41
Republic of Ireland -2 -2 -13 1 21 17 -3 -7 -5 31 36
Paraguay -6 8 2 14 14 46 15 1 -1 32 33
Venezuela -2 20 5 0 0 25 22 6 -17 33 50
Serbia -7 -3 1 -3 -2 3 7 9 -9 34 43
Ukraine 8 21 28 13 -5 13 1 6 10 35 25
Australia 5 10 12 28 41 40 35 25 14 36 22
IR Iran 2 7 5 22 5 6 6 3 16 37 21
Turkey -1 -8 1 12 0 21 -9 -4 6 38 32
Congo DR 3 7 10 -29 -23 -38 -33 -27 -26 38 64
Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 -11 -17 -16 -8 -7 -19 -10 -1 40 41
Morocco 12 -5 -3 -6 8 24 3 -1 -5 41 46
Scotland -2 15 -2 16 -19 -13 -5 10 -7 42 49
Montenegro 7 -32 -8 -29 -8 9 16 -17 -26 43 69
Greece -5 -4 0 2 -1 2 3 5 5 44 39
Egypt -4 11 22 36 11 18 5 -4 17 45 28
Czech Republic 1 4 -2 -1 8 -9 2 7 10 46 36
Ghana 4 12 8 6 19 13 14 23 23 47 24
Nigeria -1 7 22 7 21 9 18 0 13 48 35
Cameroon 4 9 25 19 11 -3 7 -8 4 49 45
Bulgaria 7 7 34 -1 22 7 12 -3 -16 49 65
Hungary 6 -8 -18 -11 -4 -8 -23 -11 -4 51 55
Burkina Faso -3 -4 21 -8 5 -1 1 -15 -5 52 57
Norway 1 -6 5 2 18 27 5 27 -1 53 54
Jamaica 1 -28 -6 -18 3 -11 -15 2 -8 54 62
Panama 18 -4 -6 -6 -17 10 11 14 8 55 47
Slovenia -4 -6 -4 7 -17 0 7 3 0 56 56
Korea Republic 0 1 5 8 23 29 28 21 28 57 29
Albania -9 -20 -8 -44 -20 -18 -34 -9 -16 58 74
Bolivia -11 25 27 -11 2 20 10 -1 -13 59 72
Ecuador 13 26 -6 -18 -4 1 -12 -4 26 60 34
Japan -3 -5 -1 11 18 24 27 25 36 61 25
Honduras -1 -8 0 1 -8 17 15 4 2 62 60
Finland 0 16 15 24 2 13 1 29 -10 63 73
Mali 1 17 -10 -18 5 -2 11 7 5 64 59
Cape Verde Islands -7 -29 -32 -29 -57 -51 -43 -11 -28 65 93
Algeria -6 0 -14 -16 -22 -12 -2 7 13 66 53
Saudi Arabia 2 10 12 38 25 21 -2 -8 6 67 61
Côte d'Ivoire 0 -5 6 4 12 8 19 22 28 68 40
Guinea 14 -18 -7 1 -18 -20 -10 1 -11 68 79
Russia 6 1 -1 0 5 6 9 31 40 70 30
FYR Macedonia 6 23 20 -1 -3 10 43 36 -17 71 88
El Salvador 17 -2 -6 14 -5 8 11 18 -13 72 85
Syria -6 6 18 23 21 6 -5 -20 -16 73 89
South Africa -8 -17 -4 -3 2 5 7 1 6 74 68
China PR -6 -5 -4 17 21 17 17 13 6 75 69
Zambia 1 2 -5 -4 23 8 21 31 9 76 67
United Arab Emirates -13 4 5 -15 -18 2 0 2 3 77 74
Belarus -6 -37 -13 -12 -1 -6 -3 0 -6 78 84
Canada 37 19 16 21 38 35 14 33 8 79 71
Lebanon -9 17 -5 -8 -4 5 23 11 -32 79 111
Curaçao -4 -3 5 18 20 -19 -8 -86 -73 81 154
Uganda -5 6 15 18 6 -8 -5 -7 5 82 77
Congo 4 21 -20 -23 -19 -41 -24 -4 -8 83 91
Oman -10 15 8 28 11 21 14 37 4 84 80
Gabon -8 15 4 26 31 0 20 14 7 85 78
Luxembourg -11 -5 -7 13 -7 -1 17 10 -39 85 124
Cyprus -4 7 41 35 43 -14 -16 -8 -15 87 102
Benin 0 20 4 38 12 26 -7 -1 7 88 81
Iraq 23 17 10 28 23 13 25 36 13 89 76
Faroe Islands -8 -10 -5 26 24 -43 -55 -63 -53 90 143
Trinidad and Tobago -18 -9 -14 -19 -21 -24 -16 -7 5 91 86
Kyrgyz Republic -3 1 21 -27 -21 8 -40 -21 -57 92 149
Israel 11 3 44 26 33 -4 17 0 27 93 66
Estonia -4 -22 -33 -9 -1 -10 0 2 1 94 93
Uzbekistan -8 0 -4 -8 -3 17 13 4 33 95 62
Georgia -8 -49 -12 -11 -12 29 26 11 -10 96 106
India -1 7 23 1 11 -1 9 -45 -41 97 138
Qatar 2 5 3 12 11 5 -3 2 11 98 87
Palestine -2 0 -15 -15 -70 -47 -37 -33 -31 99 130
Armenia -4 -28 -41 -6 -50 -9 15 -24 1 100 99
Libya -6 -34 -53 -27 -29 23 23 -6 5 101 96
Vietnam 10 22 -23 11 1 4 10 10 -13 102 115
Niger -15 -54 -27 -41 -37 -33 -28 -15 -44 103 147
Haiti 39 -4 -22 -29 -24 -24 -17 -27 12 104 92
Azerbaijan -3 -3 -3 4 -22 8 29 -30 -3 105 108
Madagascar -4 -12 6 24 -12 -38 -44 -53 -40 106 146
Mauritania 4 19 39 10 -14 -7 -21 -35 -26 107 133
Korea DPR -10 3 -22 4 34 27 -9 10 3 108 105
Central African Republic 0 -98 -87 -113 -73 -38 -76 -40 -52 108 160
Jordan -6 -7 -6 -9 -1 16 -3 29 27 110 83
Sierra Leone 9 -29 -65 -50 -63 -39 -14 -4 -2 111 113
Kenya 1 9 1 6 -2 11 9 -34 -2 112 114
Bahrain 0 22 18 41 34 21 37 43 24 113 89
Mozambique -5 19 23 12 16 -22 -6 4 16 114 98
Philippines -2 -7 -14 -5 -21 -12 -22 -16 -17 115 132
Namibia 8 33 14 2 -4 -6 17 -22 -1 116 117
Kazakhstan -3 -1 12 15 -3 7 -12 -25 -9 117 126
Zimbabwe 0 -22 -9 -9 -12 11 13 10 17 118 101
Tajikistan 1 5 -3 -15 2 12 25 1 -22 119 141
New Zealand -17 21 31 -4 30 60 72 28 38 120 82
Guinea-Bissau -3 -43 -23 -11 -52 -30 -60 -66 -41 121 162
Thailand 0 19 31 29 29 15 12 18 12 122 110
Malawi -12 -12 16 20 21 -3 6 14 19 123 104
Chinese Taipei -1 -6 -3 1 4 2 3 -25 -50 123 173
Togo -4 24 1 -15 -3 -17 -1 12 25 125 100
Lithuania 3 2 25 37 30 15 37 17 29 126 97
Antigua and Barbuda 10 -8 -8 0 30 -17 -36 -30 4 126 122
Sudan 3 -8 -3 26 7 -9 12 38 8 128 120
Latvia 4 20 17 50 30 -1 15 29 27 129 102
Turkmenistan -3 8 5 -2 9 38 7 17 3 130 127
Andorra 0 -6 -9 -5 -10 -7 -8 -23 -77 130 207
Nicaragua 6 2 -10 9 24 -1 -33 -32 -4 132 136
Yemen -3 18 42 49 50 32 30 -16 -8 133 141
Swaziland 3 13 29 27 21 8 -23 -48 -11 134 145
St Kitts and Nevis -4 -27 -31 -10 16 -23 -45 -41 -1 135 136
Rwanda 7 20 13 23 1 -15 -10 15 21 136 115
Angola -2 12 -1 -7 -2 -11 19 31 28 137 109
Myanmar -4 10 17 -2 1 -14 6 4 -16 138 154
Botswana -14 -22 4 8 -22 -8 -23 7 21 139 118
Tanzania 4 15 18 3 4 15 24 28 28 140 112
Kosovo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -25 -48 141 189
Hong Kong -5 8 23 12 21 23 9 11 -1 142 143
Equatorial Guinea 6 10 -12 -62 -30 -65 -41 -10 20 143 123
Solomon Islands -1 10 18 -8 7 20 7 6 -20 143 163
Afghanistan 4 -27 -19 -45 -45 -22 -14 -13 -24 145 169
Guatemala 2 7 -14 -9 30 -3 -7 1 51 146 95
Lesotho 2 27 17 3 -9 -26 2 -17 -9 147 156
Burundi -2 -3 -5 -12 -7 0 2 7 10 148 138
Comoros 1 -10 4 9 -8 9 -16 -29 -25 149 174
Maldives 3 8 21 13 2 31 14 -7 -14 150 164
Ethiopia 23 14 7 -10 -9 -19 4 7 30 151 121
Dominican Republic -2 -15 -38 -73 -36 -51 -21 -26 -12 152 164
Suriname -14 -28 -9 -26 1 14 43 -29 3 153 150
New Caledonia 17 13 16 -31 12 41 48 33 24 154 130
Mauritius 5 6 11 5 -4 -9 -37 -28 -24 155 179
South Sudan 0 0 0 0 -15 -5 -42 -52 -44 156 200
Tahiti -3 -16 5 -39 -19 3 2 -26 -18 157 175
Liberia 6 -22 -18 -29 -21 10 -7 18 20 158 138
Kuwait -12 -2 -11 17 22 21 33 61 52 159 107
Barbados -7 3 26 -4 15 -26 -18 11 3 160 157
Nepal -5 -11 -11 8 -2 17 16 5 -15 161 176
Vanuatu 10 21 17 38 38 45 29 25 10 162 152
Belize 3 -23 -37 -42 -22 -18 -53 -26 -5 163 168
Indonesia 1 4 13 28 12 12 41 28 16 164 148
Fiji -2 26 30 52 57 64 54 37 15 165 150
Papua New Guinea 0 3 -12 -10 -6 -2 -8 -40 -32 166 198
Cambodia -5 -10 -10 -5 -5 -15 -19 -27 -39 166 205
Grenada 9 -16 1 -17 4 16 1 12 15 168 153
Singapore -6 15 24 28 16 14 8 6 10 169 159
St Lucia -3 -11 -15 -60 -60 -62 -49 -15 -21 170 191
Malaysia -4 4 8 16 12 16 17 0 7 171 164
Gambia 9 10 8 58 42 55 51 52 53 172 119
Puerto Rico 4 -28 -24 -30 -1 6 -2 -27 15 173 158
St Vincent and the Grenadines -3 -8 -20 -35 -32 -47 -15 11 6 173 167
Moldova 0 -9 38 29 -2 18 44 39 50 175 125
Chad -20 3 -28 10 -4 33 -29 20 42 175 133
Dominica -3 -46 -15 -21 -21 -21 -18 7 -9 177 186
Bermuda 25 48 -16 36 51 3 41 58 50 178 128
Laos -1 -8 -6 -10 -13 -7 -13 -17 -16 178 194
Liechtenstein -9 -26 2 6 5 -24 9 25 9 180 171
Cuba -12 -27 15 -41 -35 -22 -6 35 46 181 135
Guyana -3 -6 -15 3 34 33 5 10 54 182 128
Bhutan 2 2 6 10 3 -37 -19 -37 -23 183 206
Malta -5 -1 -15 -6 -31 -19 1 16 12 184 172
Macau -1 -17 -8 -5 -6 -22 -10 -23 -24 185 209
Mongolia 3 7 0 6 11 28 31 21 8 186 178
São Tomé e Príncipe 0 0 -72 -31 -21 -6 -33 -16 -7 186 193
Aruba -1 3 -31 -45 -74 -44 -49 -16 1 188 187
Seychelles -1 12 7 15 -2 0 -11 0 -7 188 195
Guam -2 0 -1 -18 -17 -18 -26 -4 3 190 187
Timor-Leste 0 -6 -2 -21 -14 -62 -34 -15 -21 190 211
Cook Islands 12 15 2 10 14 17 -15 7 9 192 183
American Samoa 0 3 -18 -8 -7 0 -28 -8 -4 192 196
Bangladesh -4 8 -4 -4 7 6 11 11 12 194 182
Brunei Darussalam -2 6 13 -2 5 -4 8 -2 6 195 189
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -6 195 201
Samoa -1 13 -23 8 12 21 -13 6 13 197 184
Djibouti 3 4 3 11 12 16 2 -9 -6 197 203
US Virgin Islands 0 -5 -20 -10 -7 -30 -6 -1 0 199 199
Sri Lanka -4 10 17 4 11 11 9 19 20 200 180
Pakistan -2 1 13 -1 -5 2 24 32 31 201 170
Cayman Islands -1 -13 -1 10 11 5 17 23 21 202 181
San Marino 0 -8 -4 -3 -4 -17 -9 -6 -7 203 210
British Virgin Islands -3 -12 3 -7 -3 -11 -3 1 2 204 202
Montserrat 0 -7 -4 -32 -41 -25 -11 -5 0 204 204
Eritrea 3 30 31 40 40 42 41 45 45 206 161
Bahamas -2 17 -11 3 15 24 28 31 30 206 176
Somalia -1 14 14 24 24 28 20 23 22 206 184
Turks and Caicos Islands -2 7 15 18 18 -4 5 10 14 206 192
Tonga 0 4 -8 8 9 18 9 10 9 206 197
Anguilla 0 -10 -8 -3 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 206 208

Spotlight on some distinctive teams:
- Belgium's ranking position with new method trailed all the years between 10 and 20 positions after the FIFA-ranking. So their climb up the FIFA-ranking was followed but slower. They would be 12th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 3rd.

- Switzerland same story: their new ranking was every year between 5 and 15 positions lower than their FIFA-ranking. They would be 16th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 6th.

- Wales would never be as high with the new method as they reached in FIFA-ranking: since 2012 their ranking trailed more than 30 positions after FIFA's position. They would be 48th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 18th.

- Iceland started at spot 78 in May 2010. Same story, they trailed since 2012 some 30 positions after FIFA's position. They would be 51st this June with new method; in FIFA they were 22nd.

Where some teams are falling behind in ranking position with new method compared to FIFA, other teams would be higher placed with the new method: f.i. Spain, Mexico, Netherlands, USA, Iran and Russia. Also a lot of African teams would be higher placed: f.i. Ethiopia, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola, Togo, Rwanda and Egypt.

Regarding new recently shining stars like Curacao and Kosovo the positions with the new method evidently stay far behind compared to their FIFA-ranking. Curacao had the last two years a negative difference of some 80 positions. They were calculated with the new method as 154th in June; officially they were 81st.

The extreme differences between both June 2018 rankings are:
54 - Guyana (FIFA 182, new 128)
53 - Gambia (FIFA 172, new 119)
52 - Kuwait (FIFA 159, new 107)
51 - Guatemala (FIFA 146, new 95)

and

-77 - Andorra (FIFA 130, new 207)
-73 - Curacao (FIFA 81, new 154)
-57 - Kyrgyzstan (FIFA 92, new 149)
-53 - Faroe Islands (FIFA 90, new 143)

General conclusion: the new method is slow to react, just like it's role model the elo rating. Especially new 'in form' teams will have to be patient to climb the ranking, given the current I-factors and scaling factor in the formula.

A lot more can be analysed. With my model I can also easily compute the effects of other months as a starting ranking. So if you have specific interests, just ask.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

17 comments:

  1. Thanks Ed for your efforts.Applying New method looks more fair and logic at least to my NT Jordan, in which would be 83th instead of 110th in Fifa calculation method.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Belgium would have barely if ever made it to Pot 1 in qualifying draws? Oh come on!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Interesting, thanks. Is it possible to see the points too, to see how big is inflaction after 8 years? This ranking will reward performances in the long period, I think probably the initial intent was to avoid that teams like Italy or Netherlands can not drop too more after an occasional bad performance, and teams like Wales or Poland can not climb too mutch after occasional good performance or easy group in the qualifiers. However something seem wrong, constants are exagerately too small, they started from the ranking done by the flawed previous system and now there are overrated and underrated teams, many years are needed until the ranking will turn into something a bit realistic expecially for small nations.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think it's clear that the new system is now going to be too slow to respond to changes in team quality. Given that a particular generation might only peak for 2-3 years, it's a bit useless if the ranking takes that long to 'catch-up' with form/quality. I predict that they'll have to adapt it within a few years to make it more responsive.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Great stuff!

    Question. What starting value did you give to the new and returning teams? Kosovo, Gibraltar and South Sudan joined after 2010 and São Tomé & Príncipe wasn't ranked in 2010 because of inactivity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those 4 were all given a starting value of 864, the lowest starting value in May 2010.
      What I expect to happen when a new team is introduced, is that it gets the lowest rating at the moment of its introduction, but my assumption was a bit easier to implement and anyway it is yet unknown what FIFA will do in these circumstances.

      For instance when Kosovo was introduced in the ranking (July 2016) the lowest rating in the previous ranking (May 2016) was Timor-Leste with 772.

      Delete
  6. hopefully the phils go up..pls follow also spursandsport.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hello Ed, your conclusion is making much sense that the current fifa ranking makes it very hard for the teams to climb. Can you do an analysis for the African teams to be placed in pot 1 in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers assuming that the draw will be after the next African cup in June 2019? Can you please do simulations for this and let us know Egypt chances of getting pot 1 and what they need to do and achieve in the African cup.

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  8. Just to want to make it clear for me.
    You calculated it from June 2010 with the same method as FIFA, but FIFA did it from June 2014?
    Correct me if I am wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alisher, I calculated all the matches from May 24th 2010 with the new method. The same method FIFA applies since June 4th 2018.
      That's the reason why I compare with the June 2018 ranking, because that ranking is the last one calculated with the 'old' FIFA-method.

      Delete
  9. Can you make the calculation from the very beginning of FIFA Ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm also curious to what ranking this exercise will lead us, so I will do that as soon as I can find the time.
      I have to have starting values for all teams. I will use the first ranking from August 1993 for that.

      Delete
    2. If you calculate the all time rankings, it really doesn't matter what starting values you use, the ranking order and differences would be the same, since there were enough matches (Elo converges, that's what makes it so good)

      Delete
  10. Here's the top-50 of the October 2018 ranking, all matches from August 1993 calculated with the new method. You see the ranked teams with points, minimum and maximum rank during that period and in the last column the points difference compared to the start. All new teams in this period got a starting value of 968 points, the minimum value of the last team in the August 1993 ranking.

    1 - Brazil - 2048 - 1 - 4 - 476
    2 - France - 1984 - 1 - 22 - 428
    3 - Germany - 1956 - 1 - 10 - 356
    4 - Spain - 1951 - 1 - 14 - 399
    5 - Belgium - 1891 - 5 - 58 - 355
    6 - Argentina - 1889 - 2 - 15 - 305
    7 - Portugal - 1866 - 6 - 23 - 350
    8 - Netherlands - 1840 - 2 - 17 - 296
    9 - England - 1835 - 5 - 16 - 275
    10 - Uruguay - 1811 - 6 - 38 - 291
    11 - Colombia - 1808 - 6 - 31 - 276
    12 - Chile - 1793 - 6 - 56 - 381
    12 - Croatia - 1793 - 12 - 117 - 645
    14 - Mexico - 1792 - 4 - 21 - 244
    15 - Italy - 1775 - 1 - 15 - 179
    16 - USA - 1727 - 9 - 33 - 231
    17 - Iran - 1695 - 15 - 61 - 303
    18 - Switzerland - 1694 - 4 - 47 - 102
    19 - Sweden - 1672 - 2 - 33 - 84
    20 - Japan - 1668 - 8 - 56 - 232
    21 - Peru - 1659 - 17 - 82 - 327
    22 - Denmark - 1649 - 4 - 36 - 85
    23 - Korea Republic - 1644 - 10 - 38 - 180
    24 - Russia - 1629 - 6 - 41 - 53
    25 - Australia - 1618 - 12 - 53 - 218
    26 - Costa Rica - 1602 - 16 - 57 - 150
    27 - Paraguay - 1595 - 17 - 64 - 251
    28 - Poland - 1587 - 23 - 56 - 59
    29 - Senegal - 1584 - 25 - 74 - 204
    30 - Ghana - 1578 - 16 - 61 - 162
    31 - Ukraine - 1573 - 30 - 131 - 481
    32 - Ecuador - 1572 - 21 - 54 - 104
    32 - Nigeria - 1572 - 4 - 36 - 32
    34 - Tunisia - 1563 - 24 - 48 - 79
    35 - Turkey - 1556 - 16 - 63 - 196
    36 - Cote d'Ivoire - 1555 - 9 - 48 - 63
    37 - Czech Republic - 1549 - 7 - 37 - 1
    38 - Egypt - 1541 - 11 - 41 - 37
    39 - Cameroon - 1539 - 13 - 48 - 27
    40 - Republic of Ireland - 1537 - 5 - 40 - -43
    41 - Venezuela - 1535 - 37 - 127 - 295
    42 - Morocco - 1529 - 16 - 62 - 53
    43 - Serbia - 1521 - 14 - 57 - 133
    44 - Romania - 1518 - 7 - 49 - -6
    45 - Saudi Arabia - 1507 - 19 - 50 - 75
    46 - Uzbekistan - 1498 - 37 - 169 - 530
    47 - Greece - 1495 - 20 - 53 - 15
    48 - Wales - 1490 - 24 - 88 - -10
    49 - Scotland - 1483 - 20 - 58 - -5
    50 - Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1482 - 50 - 197 - 514

    You see the usual suspects on top. Much higher positions for the Asian powerhouses than they are now. 8 African top teams in the top-50. 9 Out of 10 CONMEBOL-teams to been seen here too. Only 5 teams occupied the number 1 position in all that time.

    Iceland on 59, Curacao on 153, Kosovo on 167, Andorra and San Marino still on spot 210 and 211.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think this analysis shows, at least in part, the effect of dropping the continental coefficients from the old FIFA ranking system. Eliminating the coefficients probably hurt some second-tier European teams that had fewer notable wins. It also helps teams like USA and Costa Rica, who no longer have every competitive match in their region "diluted" by a lesser coefficient.

    ReplyDelete