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Sunday, October 21, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Here is an update after MD3 and MD4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.


The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.
The simulation results after MD2 can be found here.

The pots are indicated by the dotted lines.

team   pot 1   pot 2   pot 3   pot 4   pot 5   pot 6
France 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Belgium 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Portugal 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Spain 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
England 99,80 0,20 0 0 0 0
Italy 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 97,91 2,09 0 0 0 0
Croatia 73,89 26,11 0 0 0 0
Germany 75,97 24,03 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Poland 49,82 50,18 0 0 0 0
Iceland 2,61 97,39 0 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Russia 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Denmark 0 93,93 6,07 0 0 0
Wales 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Austria 0 94,20 5,80 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0 69,23 30,77 0 0 0
Sweden 0 47,23 52,77 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Turkey 0 52,77 47,23 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 30,77 69,23 0 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 5,80 94,20 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 6,07 93,93 0 0 0
Finland 0 0 97,39 2,61 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 92,14 7,86 0 0
Serbia 0 0 85,60 14,40 0 0
Scotland 0 0 77,75 22,25 0 0
Norway 0 0 88,76 11,24 0 0
Israel 0 0 72,20 27,80 0 0
----------------------------------------
Greece 0 0 26,31 73,69 0 0
Romania 0 0 31,19 68,81 0 0
Montenegro 0 0 10,76 89,24 0 0
Hungary 0 0 6,65 93,35 0 0
Albania 0 0 6,48 93,52 0 0
Cyprus 0 0 4,77 95,23 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Estonia 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Lithuania 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Georgia 0 0 0 86,92 13,08 0,00
----------------------------------------
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 8,31 91,69 0,00
Kosovo 0 0 0 0,44 99,56 0,00
Belarus 0 0 0 1,19 98,81 0,00
Luxembourg 0 0 0 3,14 96,86 0,00
Armenia 0 0 0 0,00 94,90 5,10
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,00 96,94 3,06
Moldova 0 0 0 0,00 97,06 2,94
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0,00 85,27 14,73
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0,00 72,17 27,83
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0,00 57,18 42,82
----------------------------------------
Latvia 0 0 0 0,00 35,58 64,42
Malta 0 0 0 0,00 29,81 70,19
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0,00 23,87 76,13
Andorra 0 0 0 0,00 7,08 92,92
San Marino 0 0 0 0,00 0,14 99,86

England, Italy and the Netherlands had good (and a bit surprising) wins while especially Poland and Germany were on the receiving end of it and made things a lot more difficult for themselves.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, Russia and Wales made sure of pot 2, while Czech Republic and Sweden recovered form their bad start in the UNL and are fighting again with Turkey and Slovakia for pot 2.

Further down Israel had two good wins to push them firmly into pot 3 at the expense of Greece. Georgia made a huge step to the final spot in pot 4 from league D with their two comfortable wins, with the help of FYR Macedonia that lost surprisingly in and to Armenia.
And then Latvia: their EURO 2004 participation surely is a long, long time ago.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. Sweden has probability 47% for Pot 2, Turkey has 53%. So it means that Turkey should be in pot 2. Am I right?

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    Replies
    1. The teams are sorted by average ranking position over all 10.000 simulations. Sweden had 19,96 and Turkey had 20,17. That's why Sweden is placed above Turkey in this list and occupies the last spot in pot 2.
      Indeed in percentages Turkey has a somewhat bigger probability to land in pot 2 than Sweden.

      Main conclusion with these kind of close simulation results is that both teams are in roughly the same position going into the final matchdays in November.

      Delete
  2. Seeding pots for the draw of the EURO 2020 qualification after UNL MD5 (10.000 simulations).
    Pots of 10 teams. Teams sorted on average pot.

    Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Portugal - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Netherlands - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Spain - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Switzerland - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    England - 99,51% - 0,49% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Croatia - 95,97% - 4,03% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Italy - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Germany - 66,75% - 33,25% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Poland - 37,77% - 62,23% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Iceland - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Denmark - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Ukraine - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Russia - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Sweden - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Wales - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Austria - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Czech Republic - 0,00% - 67,45% - 32,55% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Slovakia - 0,00% - 32,55% - 67,45% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Turkey - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Northern Ireland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Republic of Ireland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Scotland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 99,26% - 0,74% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Serbia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Finland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bulgaria - 0,00% - 0,00% - 99,78% - 0,22% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Norway - 0,00% - 0,00% - 92,40% - 7,60% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Israel - 0,00% - 0,00% - 73,62% - 26,38% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Greece - 0,00% - 0,00% - 7,75% - 92,25% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Romania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 24,53% - 75,47% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Hungary - 0,00% - 0,00% - 2,66% - 97,34% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Montenegro - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Albania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Cyprus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Lithuania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Estonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Georgia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 67,45% - 32,55% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    FYR Macedonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 29,61% - 70,39% - 0,00%
    Belarus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 1,63% - 98,37% - 0,00%
    Kosovo - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 1,31% - 98,69% - 0,00%
    Armenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Azerbaijan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Luxembourg - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Moldova - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Kazakhstan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 98,87% - 1,13%
    Latvia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 50,02% - 49,98%
    Gibraltar - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 62,01% - 37,99%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Faroe Islands - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 41,63% - 58,37%
    Liechtenstein - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 16,78% - 83,22%
    Andorra - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 21,35% - 78,65%
    Malta - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 9,34% - 90,66%
    San Marino - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%

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