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Sunday, October 21, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Here is an update after MD3 and MD4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.


The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.
The simulation results after MD2 can be found here.

The pots are indicated by the dotted lines.

team   pot 1   pot 2   pot 3   pot 4   pot 5   pot 6
France 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Belgium 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Portugal 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Spain 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
England 99,80 0,20 0 0 0 0
Italy 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 97,91 2,09 0 0 0 0
Croatia 73,89 26,11 0 0 0 0
Germany 75,97 24,03 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Poland 49,82 50,18 0 0 0 0
Iceland 2,61 97,39 0 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Russia 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Denmark 0 93,93 6,07 0 0 0
Wales 0 100,00 0,00 0 0 0
Austria 0 94,20 5,80 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0 69,23 30,77 0 0 0
Sweden 0 47,23 52,77 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Turkey 0 52,77 47,23 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 30,77 69,23 0 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 5,80 94,20 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 6,07 93,93 0 0 0
Finland 0 0 97,39 2,61 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 92,14 7,86 0 0
Serbia 0 0 85,60 14,40 0 0
Scotland 0 0 77,75 22,25 0 0
Norway 0 0 88,76 11,24 0 0
Israel 0 0 72,20 27,80 0 0
----------------------------------------
Greece 0 0 26,31 73,69 0 0
Romania 0 0 31,19 68,81 0 0
Montenegro 0 0 10,76 89,24 0 0
Hungary 0 0 6,65 93,35 0 0
Albania 0 0 6,48 93,52 0 0
Cyprus 0 0 4,77 95,23 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Estonia 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Lithuania 0 0 0,00 100,00 0 0
Georgia 0 0 0 86,92 13,08 0,00
----------------------------------------
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 8,31 91,69 0,00
Kosovo 0 0 0 0,44 99,56 0,00
Belarus 0 0 0 1,19 98,81 0,00
Luxembourg 0 0 0 3,14 96,86 0,00
Armenia 0 0 0 0,00 94,90 5,10
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,00 96,94 3,06
Moldova 0 0 0 0,00 97,06 2,94
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0,00 85,27 14,73
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0,00 72,17 27,83
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0,00 57,18 42,82
----------------------------------------
Latvia 0 0 0 0,00 35,58 64,42
Malta 0 0 0 0,00 29,81 70,19
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0,00 23,87 76,13
Andorra 0 0 0 0,00 7,08 92,92
San Marino 0 0 0 0,00 0,14 99,86

England, Italy and the Netherlands had good (and a bit surprising) wins while especially Poland and Germany were on the receiving end of it and made things a lot more difficult for themselves.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, Russia and Wales made sure of pot 2, while Czech Republic and Sweden recovered form their bad start in the UNL and are fighting again with Turkey and Slovakia for pot 2.

Further down Israel had two good wins to push them firmly into pot 3 at the expense of Greece. Georgia made a huge step to the final spot in pot 4 from league D with their two comfortable wins, with the help of FYR Macedonia that lost surprisingly in and to Armenia.
And then Latvia: their EURO 2004 participation surely is a long, long time ago.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

43 comments:

  1. Sweden has probability 47% for Pot 2, Turkey has 53%. So it means that Turkey should be in pot 2. Am I right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The teams are sorted by average ranking position over all 10.000 simulations. Sweden had 19,96 and Turkey had 20,17. That's why Sweden is placed above Turkey in this list and occupies the last spot in pot 2.
      Indeed in percentages Turkey has a somewhat bigger probability to land in pot 2 than Sweden.

      Main conclusion with these kind of close simulation results is that both teams are in roughly the same position going into the final matchdays in November.

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  2. Seeding pots for the draw of the EURO 2020 qualification after UNL MD5 (10.000 simulations).
    Pots of 10 teams. Teams sorted on average pot.

    Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Portugal - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Netherlands - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Spain - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Switzerland - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    England - 99,51% - 0,49% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Croatia - 95,97% - 4,03% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Italy - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Germany - 66,75% - 33,25% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Poland - 37,77% - 62,23% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Iceland - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Denmark - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Ukraine - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Russia - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Sweden - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Wales - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Austria - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Czech Republic - 0,00% - 67,45% - 32,55% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Slovakia - 0,00% - 32,55% - 67,45% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Turkey - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Northern Ireland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Republic of Ireland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Scotland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 99,26% - 0,74% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Serbia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Finland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bulgaria - 0,00% - 0,00% - 99,78% - 0,22% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Norway - 0,00% - 0,00% - 92,40% - 7,60% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Israel - 0,00% - 0,00% - 73,62% - 26,38% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Greece - 0,00% - 0,00% - 7,75% - 92,25% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Romania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 24,53% - 75,47% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Hungary - 0,00% - 0,00% - 2,66% - 97,34% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Montenegro - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Albania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Cyprus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Lithuania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Estonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Georgia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 67,45% - 32,55% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    FYR Macedonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 29,61% - 70,39% - 0,00%
    Belarus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 1,63% - 98,37% - 0,00%
    Kosovo - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 1,31% - 98,69% - 0,00%
    Armenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Azerbaijan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Luxembourg - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Moldova - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Kazakhstan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 98,87% - 1,13%
    Latvia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 50,02% - 49,98%
    Gibraltar - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 62,01% - 37,99%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Faroe Islands - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 41,63% - 58,37%
    Liechtenstein - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 16,78% - 83,22%
    Andorra - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 21,35% - 78,65%
    Malta - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 9,34% - 90,66%
    San Marino - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%

    ReplyDelete
  3. Regarding the qualifying draw for the 2022 World Cup, does anyone know if the UEFA teams will be seeded according to the Nations League ranking or will it be by the FIFA ranking (presumably of June or July 2019) ?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. I don't think anything has been published as to which ranking will be used, whether the FIFA ranking will be used at all, or when the draw for the UEFA part of qualifying will take place. I understand that people are deducing from the FIFA International calendar that the "a" draw will take place in July 2019, but I think it is far more likely that the draw for the UEFA part of the qualifying will only take place in December 2020. I suspect that the draw in July 2019 will be for continents like Asia and CONCACAF that need to start their qualifiers early. If I work back from the final tournament in 2022 in December, then UEFA can fit the 12 possible matches (groups of 5/6) and playoffs starting in March 2021 (2 matches 2021/03, 2 matches 2021/06 for groups of 6, and UEFA Nations League finals for groups of 5, 2 matches in September, 2 in October, 2 in November 2021 and 2 in March 2022, and then playoffs (if necessary) in June 2022). The only doubt here is that the draw for the finals is in April 2022. So either the finals draw takes place before the playoffs, or there are no playoffs, or FIFA will need to schedule 2 qualifiers already in June 2020. But in that case the draw wouldn't need to take place until December 2019. But with the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League matches taking place September to November 2020, I think it would make more sense that UEFA wait until those are done to determine the seeding for the World Cup qualifying groups. So my bet on the UEFA draw is for this to happen only in December 2020 after the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League matches have been played.

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    3. @Homer June 2020 is immediately prior to when Euro2020 is being held so European teams won't be playing WCQ then. Groups of 5 and 6 need 10 dates not 12 as Nations league finals are played at the same time as WCQ byes so 2022 WCQ playoffs will be March 2022.

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  4. FIFA WC qualifying draw is a gala event with big TV viewerships and money involved. Making a draw without FIFA's flagship and most attractive confederation would be a shot in their own foot. I'm pretty sure this will not happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha-ha, the same could be said about giving the World Cup to a tiny nation with no football history, or holding the gala event in December, etc. It will never happen right?

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    2. Draw event in December can certainly happen. But in December of 2019, not 2020, because the latter would mean that there is not enough matchdays for some confederations.

      Delete
    3. Ok, for clarification, but I think I mentioned this, I'm not saying there won't be a draw July 2019, but I think there might be a secondary draw for UEFA. For some confederations indeed a draw needs to take place ASAP, but for other confederations it doesn't (i.e. UEFA). And in fact it doesn't make any sense to make a draw in July 2019 for UEFA if the qualifiers will only start in March 2021! You understand what I mean? The matches will take place March 2021 (2), June 2021 (2 for the groups of 6), September 2021 (2), October (2) and November (2). And indeed the playoffs can then take place in March, with the final draw in April 2022. It makes perfect sense I think. So this is why I suspect that the draw in July 2019 will only be for Asia, CONCACAF, OFC, and maybe for CONMEBOL. But it doesn't make sense to take a ranking from June or July 2019 when the matches will probably only take place in 2021! Even more so because then we've had the UEFA nations league league matches, so UEFA can propose those rankings as the rankings for deciding the groups, because that gives the fairest possible ranking of the teams at the time of the qualifying.

      Delete
  5. Homer.
    Nota gonna happen. Just look at the previous 3 draws for the World Cup.
    UEFA is the main event of the draw, so it will be in July 2019, no doubts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll see I guess...

      https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/about-uefa/executive-committee/news/newsid=2191264.html

      "In addition, for the 2022 World Cup, the same principles will apply to both the UEFA Nations League and the European Qualifiers, but will be adapted to the number of slots available and final tournament dates."

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    2. I'm betting it will be 11 groups of 5. 11 winners. Since it will be only dates in March/21, September/21, October/21 and November/21. 8 Matches.

      In June 2021 the final of 2020/2021 Uefa Nations League.

      In March 2022 the 2 spots remaining will be the top 4 non-qualified teams of 2020/2021 League 1 and 2 of Uefa Nations League in a two leg play-off 1x4, 2x3.

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    3. Groups of 5 still require 10 dates.

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    4. No, you only play 8 matches.

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    5. In a group of 5 each team plays 8 games but the group requires 10 dates as each team gets 2 byes.

      For example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying_Group_I

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    6. Gabriel, per the Euro 2020 Qualifiers the Nations League finalists will have the bye in World Cup Qualifying which would mean June 2021 would count as a further 2 dates where top seeds have a double bye and teams 2-5 play 2 matches.

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    7. True. Thanks Forza Azurri and Anonymous.

      So we will have 10 to 12 dates (if there is no playoff), or 10 dates and 2 for playoff matches in 2022.

      What do you guys think they will do. Groups of 10, 10 qualified teams, and the other 3? If they don-t use the Nations League do you believe they will make the top 6 of second places make the play-offs?

      Anyone know when UEFA will decide the form of dispute.

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    8. First FIFA needs to decide how many teams will participate at the World Cup - 32 or 48. UEFA cannot decide upon the qualifying format before they know how many slots they have.

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    9. Although Infantino is pushing for the expansion to take place in 2022, how does he propose to squeeze an additional 16 matches into an already tight 28-day calendar, and with each of the 80 games having a unique kick-off time? This doesn't seem possible.

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    10. That is not a problem. Four matches per day from Round 1 all the way to the quarterfinals solves the issue.

      Delete
    11. Even allowing for playing 4 games a day and breaking with tradition and having the Round of 16 played over 2 days instead of 4, you'd still need 2 rest days between the Round of 16 and the Quarter Finals, and also the usual 2 days rest between the Quarters and the Semis.
      Best case scenario would be 30 days on this basis.

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    12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    13. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    14. With 4 games per day we'd have:

      GS R1 - 21-24 Nov
      GS R2 - 25-28 Nov
      GS R3 - 29 Nov-2 Dec
      R32 - 3-6 Dec
      rest day
      R16 - 8-9 Dec
      rest day
      rest day
      QF - 12 Dec
      rest day
      rest day
      SF - 15 Dec
      rest day
      rest day
      Final and 3rd place - 18 Dec

      It's perfectly doable within the 28-day time frame.

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    15. Qatar is unwilling to let Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or UAE, currently political "enemies" to receive some games, and a Cup entirely in Qatar with 48 teams in 8 stadiums is highly improbable.

      It will be 32, for sure, I'm just curious how UEFA will manage to make 13 qualified teams with 5 dates only and not sing the UEFA Nations League.

      They must use the Nations League or they will not have date enough, or might use a very bad system of comparing groups and qualifies the top 3 second places.

      As I said, the best way is 11 groups of 5 with 10 dates in 2021, 11 qualify directly. 2 from the non qualified best teams in Nations League A and B, the top 1x4, 2x3 in March 2022.

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    16. UEFA can use a system of 9 groups, with group-winners qualifying directly and 8 runners-up playing-off for the remaining 4 spots. One group would have 7 teams, which would demand four extra matchdays, but there is room for that in 2022, given that the World Cup starts only in November.

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    17. Not at all Nogomet, you only have March/2022, the draw of the World Cup final groups will be in April/2022, that is fixed already.

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    18. You only have this dates:
      March/2021, June/2021 (if you put the Nations League in July, as there will be no more confederations cup, or make a way so the teams that didn't qualify for the Nations league final play at this match day), September, October, November 2021 and March/2022 (which I think will be used for the Global and UEFA playoffs).

      Delete
    19. There's no reason why the World Cup draw cannot be postponed from April to June.

      Delete
    20. That I agree.
      But we know how FIFA is. They probably won-t change the date.

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    21. To nogomet, re the 28-day tournament. I can't see them playing all 4 QF's on one day or indeed both semis on 1 day. Or indeed having the TPPO & Final on the same day. Therefore it has to be 30 days minimum.

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    22. @nogomet, thats a very tight schedule in cool conditions. In hot conditions that is a crazy set of 3 day turnarounds and as others have said 3 knockout matches is most likely the limit per day with the potential for extra time and penalties meaning you could have 3pm, 6pm, 9pm kickoffs. If it went ahead as per your suggestion then the stronger teams would need to rotate playing time much more than they currently do.

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    23. >> There's no reason why the World Cup draw cannot be postponed
      >> from April to June.

      Nogomet
      Nota gonna happen. No doubts! ;-)

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  6. Ceferin says that the Nations League most likely will NOT have an influence on WC qualifying:
    https://vaaju.com/slovenia/ceferin-all- ... slovenian/

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    Replies
    1. Does UEFA said when they will release the form of the qualifiers?

      Well, there is only one way tho if they will not use Nations League, and an unfair way IMO. Which are 10 groups, 5 of 5 and 5 of 6.

      First one qualifies and top 3 second places go also through.

      And they use 10 dates, no playoffs.
      March/21, September/21, October/21, November/21, March/22.

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. The main qualification draw is on Sunday...
    Germany chances are still very high, despite being in Pot 2.
    I've simulated the matches including the playoffs according to the complicated Nations League rules:
    https://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2018/11/euro-2020-qualifying-after-nl-gs.html

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  9. Group A: England*A*, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo*D*.

    Group B: Portugal*A*, Ukraine*B*, Serbia*C*, Lithuania, Luxembourg.

    Group C: Netherlands*A*, Germany, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Belarus*D*.

    Group D: Switzerland*A*, Denmark*B*, Republic of Ireland, Georgia*D*, Gibraltar.

    Group E: Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan.

    Group F: Spain, Sweden*B*, Norway*C*, Romania, Faroe Islands, Malta.

    Group G: Poland, Austria, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia*D*, Latvia.

    Group H: France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra.

    Group I: Belgium, Russia, Scotland*C*, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino.

    Group J: Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina*B*, Finland*C*, Greece, Armenia, Lichtenstein.

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  10. Once the fixtures for March and June are known, would it be possible to see what are the chances of the European teams to make it to pot one for the 2022 World Cup preliminary draw? Thank you.

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