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Sunday, November 25, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

The 6 teams that played the Hexagonal to qualify for the World Cup 2018 -Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago- are automatically placed in league A and are also qualified for the Gold Cup 2019.

The top 6 of the resulting qualifying ranking also qualify for league A. The next 16 teams (7-22) qualify for league B and the last 12 teams (23-34) qualify for league C. Guatemala does not play these qualifiers because they were suspended by FIFA at the time of the draw.

And last but not least: the top 10 of this ranking also qualifies for the Gold Cup 2019, which will be expanded to 16 teams.

The teams below are sorted by their average ranking position. Presented are the probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019.


team   league A   league B   league C  Gold Cup
Haiti 99,99% 0,01% 0,00% 100,00%
Canada 99,43% 0,57% 0,00% 100,00%
Curacao 100,00% 0,00% 0,00% 100,00%
Jamaica 84,95% 15,05% 0,00% 100,00%
Cuba 92,61% 7,39% 0,00% 100,00%
Martinique 72,26% 27,74% 0,00% 99,91%
--------------------------------------
Dominican Republic 14,74% 85,26% 0,00% 68,52%
Bermuda 16,43% 83,57% 0,00% 44,93%
St. Kitts and Nevis 14,98% 85,02% 0,00% 50,12%
Nicaragua 3,60% 96,40% 0,00% 53,72%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
El Salvador 0,39% 99,61% 0,00% 38,42%
Belize 0,21% 99,79% 0,00% 31,08%
French Guyana 0,41% 99,59% 0,00% 21,63%
Guyana 0,00% 96,95% 3,05% 43,12%
St. Lucia 0,00% 93,59% 6,41% 11,64%
Suriname 0,00% 95,52% 4,48% 27,63%
Montserrat 0,00% 100,00% 0,00% 6,59%
Barbados 0,00% 84,11% 15,89% 2,46%
Dominica 0,00% 74,17% 25,83% 0,02%
Guadeloupe 0,00% 60,74% 39,26% 0,02%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0,00% 74,09% 25,91% 0,00%
Aruba 0,00% 59,97% 40,03% 0,19%
--------------------------------------
Antigua and Barbuda 0,00% 59,44% 40,56% 0,00%
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,00% 46,30% 53,70% 0,00%
Grenada 0,00% 32,39% 67,61% 0,00%
Cayman Islands 0,00% 7,45% 92,55% 0,00%
Bonaire 0,00% 9,89% 90,11% 0,00%
British Virgin Islands 0,00% 5,28% 94,72% 0,00%
Bahamas 0,00% 0,10% 99,90% 0,00%
Anguilla 0,00% 0,01% 99,99% 0,00%
Puerto Rico 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
US Virgin Islands 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
St. Martin 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
St. Maarten 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league A
Cuba44%
Curacao35%
Canada21%
Haiti19%
Jamaica12%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league A
El Salvador-45%
Nicaragua-29%
Dominican Republic-26%
St. Kitts and Nevis-14%
Guadeloupe-8%
Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league B
Montserrat65%
El Salvador45%
Turks and Caicos Islands37%
Nicaragua29%
Dominican Republic26%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league B
Cuba-44%
Curacao-35%
Cayman Islands-27%
Bahamas-27%
Aruba-25%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league C
Aruba33%
Guadeloupe32%
Cayman Islands27%
Bahamas27%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines18%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league C
Montserrat-65%
Turks and Caicos Islands-37%
Bermuda-31%
Dominica-23%
Belize-12%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
Bermuda33%
Cuba26%
Curacao15%
Martinique13%
Belize13%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
El Salvador-36%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines-35%
Aruba-21%
Guadeloupe-20%
St. Lucia-17%

Average number of points per position in the resulting qualification ranking:

1 11,96
2 11,70
3 10,99
4 10,06
5 9,35
6 9,04
7 8,92
8 8,48
9 7,78
10 7,26
11 7,04
12 6,91
13 6,66
14 6,34
15 6,11
16 6,01
17 5,95
18 5,80
19 5,51
20 5,11
21 4,66
22 4,31
23 4,10
24 3,99
25 3,85
26 3,56
27 3,21
28 2,94
29 2,58
30 1,93
31 1,29
32 0,82
33 0,39
34 0,07

The probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019 per Win/Draw/Loss combination:

W/D/L - combination  League A  League B  League C  Gold Cup
4 wins 100,00% 0,00% 0,00% 100,00%
3 wins, 1 draw 100,00% 0,00% 0,00% 100,00%
3 wins, 1 loss 47,56% 52,44% 0,00% 99,35%
2 wins, 2 draws * 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2 wins, 1 draw 0,00% 100,00% 0,00% 37,34%
2 wins, 2 losses 0,00% 99,87% 0,13% 0,00%
1 win, 3 draws * 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
1 win, 2 draws 0,00% 93,85% 6,15% 0,00%
1 win, 1 draw 0,00% 30,03% 69,97% 0,00%
1 win, 3 losses 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
4 draws * 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
3 draws * 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2 draws 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
1 draw 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%
4 losses 0,00% 0,00% 100,00% 0,00%

* can't occur anymore

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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