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Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Asian Nations Cup 2019 simulations (May 2018)

Last week was the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, played next January in the United Arab Emirates. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 tournament.

The seeding for this draw was based on the April FIFA ranking, but with a small twist: the 12 teams that qualified first in the second qualifying round populated the first two pots, ordered by this ranking. The other 12 teams that qualified later on via the third qualifying round populated pots 3 and 4, once again ordered by this ranking.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results, ordered by average group position:



group A      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
United Arab Emirates 58,24 24,94 11,92 4,90
Thailand 15,99 30,41 31,90 21,70
Bahrain 15,85 24,60 27,17 32,38
India 9,92 20,05 29,01 41,02
group B      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
Australia 49,08 27,28 15,72 7,92
Syria 26,57 31,59 23,05 18,79
Jordan 12,57 22,14 32,93 32,36
Palestine 11,78 18,99 28,30 40,93
group C      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
Korea Republic 59,35 28,13 9,40 3,12
China PR 29,24 39,73 21,05 9,98
Kyrgyzstan 6,41 17,68 37,87 38,04
Philippines 5,00 14,46 31,68 48,86
group D      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
Iran 68,89 21,21 7,61 2,29
Iraq 20,72 42,71 25,38 11,19
Vietnam 6,70 20,61 33,54 39,15
Yemen 3,69 15,47 33,47 47,37
group E      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
Saudi Arabia 38,44 26,03 19,07 16,46
Korea DPR 20,72 25,40 27,55 26,33
Qatar 20,79 24,97 27,92 26,32
Lebanon 20,05 23,60 25,46 30,89
group F      1st     2nd      3rd      4th
Japan 43,58 29,67 18,84 7,91
Uzbekistan 31,11 31,48 25,23 12,18
Oman 20,74 28,70 33,86 16,70
Turkmenistan 4,57 10,15 22,07 63,21



Round of 16

Iran 96,31
Korea Republic 95,62
United Arab Emirates 92,39
Japan 89,26
Australia 87,74
Iraq 83,01
China PR 82,77
Uzbekistan 79,65
Saudi Arabia 78,96
Syria 76,29
Oman 74,32
Thailand 68,41
Qatar 66,51
Lebanon 63,45
Korea DPR 62,93
Bahrain 56,72
Jordan 55,59
India 50,23
Vietnam 49,13
Palestine 48,13
Kyrgyzstan 47,35
Philippines 35,73
Yemen 33,15
Turkmenistan 26,35


Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Iran 76,91 [79,86]
Korea Republic 74,45 [77,86]
United Arab Emirates 66,38 [71,85]
Australia 64,72 [73,76]
Japan 59,92 [67,13]
Uzbekistan 45,71 [57,39]
Syria 44,57 [58,42]
China PR 42,50 [51,35]
Iraq 40,79 [49,14]
Saudi Arabia 37,57 [47,58]
Oman 34,68 [46,66]
Thailand 27,00 [39,47]
Bahrain 23,91 [42,15]
India 23,89 [47,56]
Qatar 23,37 [35,14]
Jordan 22,18 [39,90]
Lebanon 20,96 [33,03]
Korea DPR 20,70 [32,89]
Palestine 17,02 [35,36]
Vietnam 8,88 [18,07]
Kyrgyzstan 8,76 [18,50]
Philippines 5,68 [15,90]
Yemen 4,75 [14,33]
Turkmenistan 4,70 [17,84]


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Iran 56,59 [73,58]
Korea Republic 48,90 [65,68]
Australia 43,64 [67,43]
Japan 37,71 [62,93]
United Arab Emirates 35,24 [53,09]
Syria 23,93 [53,69]
Uzbekistan 23,50 [51,41]
Iraq 18,05 [44,25]
Saudi Arabia 16,59 [44,16]
China PR 15,78 [37,13]
Oman 15,54 [44,81]
Qatar 8,64 [36,97]
Jordan 8,36 [37,69]
India 8,27 [34,62]
Korea DPR 7,40 [35,75]
Lebanon 7,35 [35,07]
Bahrain 6,57 [27,48]
Thailand 6,33 [23,44]
Palestine 5,52 [32,43]
Vietnam 1,62 [18,24]
Kyrgyzstan 1,59 [18,15]
Turkmenistan 1,05 [22,34]
Philippines 1,00 [17,61]
Yemen 0,83 [17,47]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Iran 41,09 [72,61]
Korea Republic 32,55 [66,56]
Australia 23,79 [54,51]
Japan 19,65 [52,11]
United Arab Emirates 14,92 [42,34]
Syria 10,60 [44,30]
Uzbekistan 10,17 [43,28]
Saudi Arabia 7,84 [47,26]
Iraq 7,73 [42,83]
Oman 5,75 [37,00]
China PR 5,65 [35,80]
Qatar 3,10 [35,88]
India 2,94 [35,55]
Jordan 2,82 [33,73]
Korea DPR 2,58 [34,86]
Lebanon 2,50 [34,01]
Bahrain 1,77 [26,94]
Thailand 1,69 [26,70]
Palestine 1,41 [25,54]
Kyrgyzstan 0,42 [26,42]
Vietnam 0,41 [25,31]
Philippines 0,25 [25,00]
Yemen 0,22 [26,51]
Turkmenistan 0,15 [14,29]


Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Iran 29,10 [70,82]
Korea Republic 16,67 [51,21]
Australia 14,01 [58,89]
Japan 10,73 [54,61]
United Arab Emirates 5,48 [36,73]
Uzbekistan 4,36 [42,87]
Syria 4,16 [39,25]
Iraq 2,78 [35,96]
Saudi Arabia 2,71 [34,57]
Oman 2,15 [37,39]
China PR 1,59 [28,14]
Qatar 1,05 [33,87]
Korea DPR 1,02 [39,53]
India 0,95 [32,31]
Jordan 0,76 [26,95]
Lebanon 0,70 [28,00]
Bahrain 0,60 [33,90]
Thailand 0,45 [26,63]
Palestine 0,39 [27,66]
Vietnam 0,12 [29,27]
Philippines 0,08 [32,00]
Kyrgyzstan 0,08 [19,05]
Yemen 0,04 [18,18]
Turkmenistan 0,02 [13,33]

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. Hi Ed , looking into India's recent games and record do you think India can make into best 4 3rd rank teams from Group A ?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well, there is no Asian powerhouse (Iran, Japan, Australia, Korea Republic) in India's group, so it is an excellent chance to make that luck of the draw count. On the other hand, realistically, India still looks destined for a fight for third spot with Thailand.
    The simulations show that their chance of direct qualification via spot 1 or 2 in the group is 30%. They also show that when India ends on third spot they will have 70% chance of qualifying for the Round of 16.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed, Qualifying for atleast 16 will really boost India's confidence and ranking . Hopefully they make good progress

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