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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

FIFA ranking: September 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 19th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between July 22nd and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-07-22 Djibouti - Somalia 1:0 (in Djibouti)
2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 (in Dominican Republic)
2019-08-28 Oman - Yemen 1:0 (in Oman)
2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 (closed door match in Chinese Taipei)
2019-08-30 China PR - Myanmar 4:1 (closed door match in China PR)
2019-09-04 Burkina Faso - Libya 1:0 (in Morocco)
2019-09-08 Morocco - Burkina Faso 1:0 (in Morocco)

Included are all other friendlies, final part of the Indian Ocean Island Games, WAFF-cup, qualifiers for CHAN 2020 and of course all matches played in the September FIFA window: qualifiers for EURO, Gold Cup (aka CONCACAF Nations League) and World Cup (Asia and Africa). In total 221 matches count for this ranking.
.

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. 

Note that all matches played in the CONCACAF Nations League use an I-factor of 25 instead of the regular 15, because they double as qualification for the Gold Cup.

We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)


Best movers:
13 - Grenada
11 - Guatemala
10 - Cayman Islands

Worst movers:
-11 - Nicaragua, Eswatini
-10 - Myanmar

Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Jamaica
4 - Republic of Ireland, Russia

Worst movers in the top 50:
-5 - Iceland
-4 - Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina


One team will improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (119 - 120 in July 2019)

One team returns to their lowest ranking:
US Virgin Islands (202 in February 2008)

Three teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (203 - 202 in April 2019)
Eritrea (208 - 207 in April 2018)
Anguilla (210 - 209 in April 2015)



September 2019 rank - Team - September 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1752.00 0 6
2 France 1725.25 1 7
3 Brazil 1718.63 -1 -7
4 England 1661.82 0 10
5 Portugal 1642.77 1 12
6 Uruguay 1639.14 -1 2
7 Spain 1631.10 2 14
8 Croatia 1625.47 -1 0
9 Colombia 1621.88 -1 0
10 Argentina 1614.46 0 4
11 Switzerland 1604.15 0 -1
12 Mexico 1603.37 0 -1
13 Netherlands 1586.35 3 17
14 Denmark 1583.76 -1 -5
15 Italy 1583.35 1 14
16 Germany 1580.28 -1 -2
17 Chile 1576.25 -3 -7
18 Sweden 1559.67 0 2
19 Peru 1551.45 0 -1
20 Senegal 1546.43 0 -4
21 USA 1544.86 1 -3
22 Poland 1532.37 -2 -18
23 Wales 1522.10 1 8
23 Iran 1521.95 0 4
25 Ukraine 1516.44 0 3
26 Venezuela 1506.05 0 1
27 Austria 1503.01 0 5
28 Republic of Ireland 1495.82 4 7
29 Tunisia 1492.89 0 -3
29 Slovakia 1492.64 2 2
31 Romania 1490.27 -3 -7
31 Japan 1489.94 2 9
33 Northern Ireland 1488.29 -4 -8
34 Nigeria 1481.53 -1 1
35 Serbia 1475.98 0 -1
36 Turkey 1474.68 1 8
37 Korea Republic 1470.06 0 3
38 Algeria 1466.31 2 3
39 Morocco 1463.32 2 2
40 Paraguay 1462.32 -1 -2
41 Iceland 1461.39 -5 -12
42 Russia 1454.86 4 19
43 Costa Rica 1442.12 1 -3
44 Czech Republic 1441.16 -1 -7
44 Australia 1440.65 2 5
46 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1438.03 -4 -15
47 Norway 1435.39 3 6
47 Jamaica 1434.97 5 10
49 Egypt 1430.94 0 0
50 Ghana 1428.67 0 0
51 Hungary 1424.79 -6 -17
52 Scotland 1414.91 -4 -18
53 Cameroon 1408.79 0 0
54 Finland 1397.72 3 4
55 Congo DR 1395.40 1 0
56 Cote d'Ivoire 1394.13 1 0
56 Montenegro 1394.09 -1 -7
58 Mali 1391.25 1 2
59 Slovenia 1390.06 4 27
60 Greece 1381.71 -6 -21
61 Burkina Faso 1381.33 0 0
62 Bulgaria 1377.03 -2 -11
62 Qatar 1376.79 0 2
64 Albania 1372.46 0 10
65 Ecuador 1370.45 1 11
66 United Arab Emirates 1366.84 -1 7
67 Honduras 1358.62 0 9
68 China PR 1339.84 3 7
69 North Macedonia 1338.85 2 6
70 South Africa 1331.14 0 -7
71 Saudi Arabia 1328.73 -3 -13
72 Bolivia 1327.40 1 -5
72 El Salvador 1326.83 -4 -15
74 Guinea 1325.24 1 0
75 Canada 1321.74 3 10
76 Curacao 1320.01 3 11
77 Panama 1316.37 -3 -15
78 Cape Verde Islands 1315.31 -2 -4
79 Iraq 1314.44 -2 -1
80 Uganda 1305.37 0 0
81 Zambia 1299.03 0 0
82 Belarus 1294.33 2 8
83 Benin 1293.07 -1 -2
84 Oman 1292.35 3 15
85 Syria 1280.01 2 3
86 Israel 1277.20 -2 -9
86 Haiti 1277.16 -3 -11
88 Uzbekistan 1272.31 -4 -14
88 Gabon 1272.19 2 0
90 Congo 1265.41 1 0
91 Georgia 1264.22 3 9
92 Cyprus 1260.62 1 3
93 Luxembourg 1254.53 -2 -10
94 Lebanon 1253.13 -7 -24
95 Madagascar 1249.44 1 -2
96 Armenia 1242.13 2 12
97 Kyrgyzstan 1237.49 -2 -15
97 Jordan 1237.43 2 8
99 Vietnam 1230.56 -2 -1
100 Palestine 1222.97 2 -1
101 Trinidad and Tobago 1222.15 0 -4
102 Estonia 1211.93 -2 -16
102 Libya 1211.65 3 5
104 India 1206.97 -1 -7
104 Bahrain 1206.55 5 19
106 Mauritania 1206.18 0 1
107 Niger 1201.38 -3 -8
107 Kenya 1200.69 0 0
109 Faroe Islands 1191.28 -1 -9
109 Azerbaijan 1190.97 0 3
111 Central African Republic 1184.32 0 0
112 Mozambique 1181.30 4 18
113 Korea DPR 1175.88 5 22
114 Thailand 1174.93 1 10
115 Tajikistan 1173.93 4 22
116 Kazakhstan 1169.29 -4 -5
117 Sierra Leone 1166.97 -3 -5
118 Zimbabwe 1164.95 -6 -9
119 Kosovo 1164.38 1 15
120 Namibia 1162.14 1 14
121 Angola 1161.45 1 17
122 New Zealand 1157.36 -5 0
123 Guinea-Bissau 1155.01 0 12
124 Togo 1140.19 4 13
124 Malawi 1140.15 2 9
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1132.20 -2 -4
127 Philippines 1129.62 -1 -1
128 Sudan 1111.27 1 5
129 Chinese Taipei 1105.82 -4 -26
130 Rwanda 1103.88 3 16
131 Lithuania 1094.44 -1 -7
131 Turkmenistan 1093.76 1 3
133 Guatemala 1088.53 11 17
134 St. Kitts and Nevis 1086.08 -3 -10
135 Equatorial Guinea 1083.82 4 10
136 Tanzania 1083.38 1 8
137 Yemen 1077.96 5 5
137 Lesotho 1077.82 7 6
139 Andorra 1074.94 -3 -7
139 Latvia 1074.61 -5 -11
141 Solomon Islands 1072.78 1 0
142 Suriname 1068.71 9 24
143 Hong Kong 1068.09 -4 -6
144 Burundi 1065.47 4 4
145 Myanmar 1063.68 -10 -20
146 Afghanistan 1061.53 3 4
147 Comoros 1059.50 -1 -11
148 Botswana 1058.99 -1 -10
148 Nicaragua 1058.87 -11 -16
150 Eswatini 1055.49 -11 -19
151 Ethiopia 1053.69 -1 5
152 Liberia 1052.63 0 9
153 Maldives 1046.78 -1 3
154 New Caledonia 1035.12 0 0
155 Kuwait 1032.79 1 11
156 Dominican Republic 1030.61 -1 3
157 Singapore 1019.10 5 20
158 Malaysia 1014.74 1 6
159 Tahiti 1014.27 -1 0
160 Grenada 1000.82 13 28
161 Mauritius   999.04 -4 -20
161 Nepal   998.76 5 4
163 Fiji   996.27 0 0
163 Vanuatu   995.62 0 0
165 Papua New Guinea   990.55 3 0
166 Gambia   987.67 -5 -18
167 Bermuda   987.10 7 15
167 Indonesia   986.84 -7 -21
169 Belize   982.99 -2 -11
170 Cambodia   982.25 0 -6
171 Barbados   981.24 -8 -15
172 Moldova   977.99 -1 -7
173 South Sudan   976.87 -4 -12
174 St. Vincent and the Grenadines   970.22 2 16
175 St. Lucia   968.65 -3 -6
176 Guyana   960.43 2 7
177 Chad   949.58 -2 -6
178 Cuba   940.53 1 -9
179 Malta   932.61 2 -6
180 Dominica   931.80 -4 -22
181 Puerto Rico   929.43 -1 -11
182 Liechtenstein   928.04 0 6
183 Mongolia   923.31 4 9
184 Macau   922.10 -2 0
185 Bhutan   915.97 1 0
186 Djibouti   912.66 9 17
187 Bangladesh   912.49 -5 -10
187 Laos   912.07 1 0
187 Montserrat   911.69 9 17
190 Cook Islands   908.00 0 0
191 Sao Tomé e Príncipe   905.28 -6 -15
192 Brunei Darussalam   903.90 0 0
193 American Samoa   900.27 1 0
194 Cayman Islands   895.38 10 28
195 Samoa   894.26 2 0
196 Guam   891.51 -6 -16
197 Aruba   890.24 -8 -19
198 Gibraltar   889.46 0 -4
199 Seychelles   888.28 -7 -16
200 Timor-Leste   879.43 1 0
200 Somalia   879.12 2 11
202 US Virgin Islands   875.24 -3 -13
203 Sri Lanka   871.51 -3 -14
204 Pakistan   866.81 0 0
204 British Virgin Islands   866.69 0 0
206 Tonga   861.81 1 0
206 Turks and Caicos Islands   861.56 1 0
208 Eritrea   855.56 -6 -12
209 Bahamas   854.65 1 0
210 Anguilla   848.94 -1 -8
211 San Marino   834.51 0 -4


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

21 comments:

  1. Ed. By the fixtures of El Salvador and Panama until the end of the year. If Canada beat USA in Toronto they are in pratically in the hex, right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The hex seeding is based on the June 2020 ranking. CONCACAF has announced that in March and June next year extra qualification play-offs for Gold Cup 2021 will be played.
      I only want to say: there are still quite some high-valued CONCACAF matches scheduled before the June ranking.

      Soon I will post new simulations about the situation in CONCACAF, taking these qualifiers into account. That should shed some numerical light on your question.

      Delete
  2. Thank you so much for posting this dude! :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. I don't think that concacaf group stage matches are treated as qualifying for gold cup 2021. If you take a look to pdf about calculation from fifa.com, it is stated that nations league playoffs have importance 25 while group stage only 15. In such case uefa nations league played at autumn 2018 would also take 25 as factor. But it does not act as real qualifying event, it just forms playoff paths. It is similar to concacaf nations league. Besides, what importance factor was used last year when then played qualifying matches to determine which team will play in which league? I don't think it was 25, but it also served as qualification for gold cup 2019.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, there's this from CONCACAF.

      UNL qualifies only for qualification play-offs for EURO 2020, CNL now qualifies directly for the final tournament itself in 2021. As indeed did the CNL qualifiers last year for the Gold Cup 2019. Those matches then had an I-factor of 15.

      I think CONCACAF has in the meantime succesfully appealed to FIFA that the I-factor in this situation should be higher than 15.

      Delete
    2. Indeed, given the 2019-09-19 ranking, all CONCACAF Nations League qualifying matches have an importance of 25.

      The following matches are not included:

      - Saudi Arabia v Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan in the WAFF on 4, 7 and 10 August
      - St. Vincent & the Grenadines v Trinidad and Tobago on 12 August
      - St. Kitts & Nevis v Antigua and Barbuda on 25 and 27 August
      - Oman v Yemen on 28 August
      - Belize v St. Vincent & the Grenadines on 30 August and 1 September
      - China v Myanmar on 30 August
      - United Arab Emirates v Dominican Republic on 30 August
      - United Arab Emirates v Sri Lanka on 31 August
      - Burkina Faso v Libya on 4 September
      - Montenegro v Hungary on 5 September

      In addition, Taiwan v Guam was included, but seeing as Taiwan used 11 substitutes it will surely be excluded for the next ranking.

      This gives all the right rankings, apart from Guatemala and Cuba that both have 1 point less. Still looking why that is. They have 1088.53 and 940,53 respectively, but are listed as 1088 and 940 in the new ranking. Possibly a match was or matches were included/excluded that were played for a previous ranking such that they both lose points as a result.

      Delete
    3. Adding Dominican Republic v Guatemala on 15 August solves the ranking for Guatemala.

      Delete
    4. And, it's going very far back, but if we add Cuba 2-2 Bermuda on 25 February (Bermuda used 7 substitutes though), then the numbers are correct. That's one possible way to get the same numbers.

      Delete
    5. Hi Homer
      In the Sept 19 Rankings Fifa is showing there were 212 games in total played: 78 Friendlies, 74 Continental Qualifiers and 60 World Cup Qualifying Games. Here's the link.
      https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/belgium-stay-top-kosovo-reach-record-high
      Thus far I could only come up with 75 friendlies that are included with three games unaccounted for. Here's what I have so far. 30 African Nations Championships Qualifying, 11 WAFF Championship games, 1 Indian Ocean Island game and 33 regular friendly games. Could you compare this with the list that you have? I already have the Dominican Rep.- Guatemala and the Taiwan-Guam matches included.

      Thanks

      Delete
    6. It seems you're missing 3 WAFF matches then, because these are my totals:

      33 - "Real" Friendlies

      30 - African Nations Championship

      1 - Indian Ocean Games

      14 - West Asian Football Federation Championship

      Total "Friendlies": 78


      24 - CONCACAF Nations League (excluding matches in which a non-FIFA member played)

      50 - European Championship Qualifying

      32 - World Cup Qualifiers - Asia
      28 - World Cup Qualifiers - Africa

      134 "Majors"

      134 + 78 = 212

      All but the matches involving Saudi Arabia are apparently considered by FIFA, otherwise the numbers don't match.

      The only thing that is still unclear is the Cuba "anomaly". Either they included the Bermuda 2-2 match in February with this ranking (this gets 940 instead of 941), or it is a combination of their other matches somehow that cause the tiny difference (in this ranking period they only played Canada in two matches), or otherwise it could get very nasty if it is some other combination that would cause Cuba to lose more points somewhere else, I'm still looking into that. But in the latter case it is likely it was caused by another match of one of their opponents somewhere. What is almost certain is that whatever match or matches, the match or matches ended in a draw. A win would cause too much of a point shift for them or their opponents.

      Delete
    7. Nice work Homer, thank you for the research !

      Apparently Saudi Arabia showed up with a B-team in the West Asian Championship (the results there probably were a pointer for that already). And indeed, the last match of the Cook Islands was played more than 4 years ago, so they are removed from the ranking. FIFA notes that for the first match Cook Islands will play in the future, their FIFA-points will still be 908.

      In summary the following adaptations on my assumptions has been made:

      FIFA excluded (and I included):
      2019-08-04 Saudi Arabia - Kuwait 1:2 West Asian Championship
      2019-08-07 Saudi Arabia - Bahrain 0:0 West Asian Championship
      2019-08-10 Saudi Arabia - Jordan 0:3 West Asian Championship
      2019-08-11 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Trinidad and Tobago 1:0 Friendly
      2019-08-25 St. Kitts and Nevis - Antigua and Barbuda 3:0 Friendly
      2019-08-27 St. Kitts and Nevis - Antigua and Barbuda 4:3 Friendly
      2019-08-30 Belize - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1:1 Friendly
      2019-08-30 United Arab Emirates - Dominican Republic 4:0 Friendly
      2019-08-31 United Arab Emirates - Sri Lanka 5:1 Friendly
      2019-09-01 Belize - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1:0 Friendly
      2019-09-05 Montenegro - Hungary 2:1 Friendly

      FIFA included (and I excluded):
      2019-08-14 Dominican Republic - Guatemala 0:0 Friendly
      2019-08-29 Chinese Taipei - Guam 3:0 Friendly (closed door match)
      And to solve Cuba's points total in the September ranking:
      2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 Friendly (closed door match)

      Delete
  4. So both Netherlands and Italy leapfrogged Germany. Pot A for WC 2022 is now: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy. Pot B has: Germany, Sweden, Poland, Wales, Ukraine, Austria, Ireland, Slovakia, Romania, and Northern Ireland. This - of course - assuming ten groups. We'll find out on September 24th.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Ed
    I'm having trouble coming up with the July 25 calculation ranking points for both El Salvador and Guyana. I need El Salvador's ranking points calculations from Saturday October 13, 2018 to Tuesday June 25, 2019 and Guyana Thursday September 6, 2018 to Wednesday June 26, 2019. Also what were the point calculations in the match up between Barbados and Grenada back on Monday March 4, 2019?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SLV:
      date - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
      2019-06-25 - HON - 35 - 1359,961 - -18,460 - 1341,501
      2019-06-21 - JAM - 35 - 1358,104 - 1,856 - 1359,961
      2019-06-17 - CUW - 35 - 1341,941 - 16,163 - 1358,104
      2019-06-09 - JPN - 10 - 1345,571 - -3,630 - 1341,941
      2019-06-02 - HAI - 5 - 1343,641 - 1,930 - 1345,571
      2019-03-26 - PER - 10 - 1336,930 - 6,711 - 1343,641
      2019-03-23 - JAM - 15 - 1328,348 - 8,582 - 1336,930
      2019-03-06 - GUA - 5 - 1327,023 - 1,325 - 1328,348
      2018-11-20 - HAI - 10 - 1322,975 - 4,049 - 1327,023
      2018-11-16 - BER - 15 - 1335,276 - -12,301 - 1322,975
      2018-10-13 - BRB - 15 - 1331,968 - 3,307 - 1335,276

      GUY:
      date - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
      2019-06-26 - TRI - 35 - 943,669 - 8,870 - 952,538
      2019-06-22 - PAN - 35 - 950,131 - -6,462 - 943,669
      2019-06-18 - USA - 35 - 954,038 - -3,907 - 950,131
      2019-06-06 - BER - 10 - 959,042 - -5,004 - 954,038
      2019-03-23 - BLZ - 15 - 950,811 - 8,231 - 959,042
      2018-10-13 - TCA - 15 - 936,971 - 6,422 - 943,393
      2018-09-06 - BRB - 15 - 936,000 - 0,971 - 936,971

      BRB
      date - opponent - I - pts before - pts exchange - pts after
      2019-03-24 - NCA - 15 - 1002,327 - -5,845 - 996,482
      2019-03-08 - DMA - 5 - 1000,065 - 2,262 - 1002,327
      2019-03-06 - LCA - 5 - 997,695 - 2,370 - 1000,065
      2019-03-04 - GRN - 5 - 995,327 - 2,368 - 997,695
      2019-02-28 - VIN - 5 - 998,077 - -2,750 - 995,327
      2018-11-18 - VIR - 15 - 999,592 - 5,903 - 1005,495
      2018-10-13 - SLV - 15 - 1002,899 - -3,307 - 999,592
      2018-09-06 - GUY - 15 - 1003,871 - -0,971 - 1002,899

      On Dec 6th 2018 the match between GUY and BRB from Sep 6 2018 (originally 2:2) was awarded 3:0 to Guyana. The points of both team were on Dec 6th adapted to reflect this. Points exchanged in matches played before December 6th 2018 remained unchanged. Just the points of GUY and BRB were adapted (GUY +7,4182634; BRB -7,4182634) and used in the next match of each team. You can see this in the tables above.
      The correction was determined as (the points-exchange of the 3:0 win, calculated with points of both teams on DECEMBER 6) minus (the original points-exchange of the 2:2 draw, calculated with points of both teams on September 6): 8,389517 - 0,971253 = 7,4182634.

      Delete
  6. After one year, it is interesting to note the difference in points between the first ranked team and the last. At the starting of the new system it was 1600-868=732. Now the "distance" is about 917 points, with an important increment of about the 25%. If the constants I for the importance of the tournaments will remain the same, after the next World Cup probably the movements in the ranking will become very small. Right now, whith the interval between teams still artificially low, San Marino is penalized for having played more competitive matches in this year, despite they play against stronger opponents in europe respect other Concacaf or AFC nations.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I was confused to find the Cook Islands ranked 999th by FIFA until I realised that they haven't played any matches since the 2018 World cup qualifiers in September 2015 (four years ago), so have been removed from the ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Trinidad (1222) in your preview while it's 1226 in FIFA's new September ranking.
    Antigua (1132) => 1137 according to FIFA
    Guatemala (1089) => 1088
    St.Kitts (1086) => 1081
    Dominican Rep. (1031) => 1032
    Belize (983) => 981
    St.Vincent (970) => 969
    Cuba (941) => 940

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You don't understand any English ?

      Delete
    2. Unless I'm mistaken you mean the bit about your inclusion rules and corrections being needed after FIFA's ranking has been published?
      My post wasn't meant to ruffle any feathers. I was trying to be helpful. I've tried to help out before (e.g. the July final preview with the discrepancy in El Salvador's points total, etc.). I only bother because I care and the CNL (Hex race) peaked my interest (that's why I'm focussing on Concacaf teams). In future I'll refrain from these sort of posts. I want you to know I appreciate the effort you put in and I'd like to thank you for keeping this site running.

      My english isn't very good. How about: https://imgur.com/BRsNF3x

      Delete
  9. Your comment just stated the obvious, so I didn't recognize it 'as trying to be helpful'. Of course I compare the published ranking with my preview to find these differences immediately. The next, complicated part can be to find possible declarations for the found differences. See the comments of Homer above where he explains them, which is really handy.

    And with all the Anonymouses around here lately, it's hard for me to distinguish between them.

    Anyway, you're welcome and... sorry for my rather curt response.

    ReplyDelete