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Friday, February 1, 2019

FIFA ranking: February 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday February 7th. 

Some things are changed. 

First of all FIFA has, I surely hope temporarily, removed the fixture list from their site. The only official source regarding which matches to include in the FIFA ranking calculation is gone. That makes a reliable prediction of the next ranking a bit of a scientific guess, doesn't it ?

Okay, it's safe to assume that all matches in the Asian Nations Cup will count, but what about the 7 friendlies sofar in 2019 which could or could not count for the February ranking?


I've assumed that

Jan 2 Oman-Thailand
Jan 8 Sweden-Finland
Jan 11 Estonia-Finland and Sweden-Iceland
Jan 15 Estonia-Iceland

will be excluded and that

Jan 27 USA-Panama
Feb 2 USA-Costa Rica

will be included in the calculation.
Why ? The excluded friendlies were termed 'non-FIFA friendlies', while both USA-friendlies are 'friendlies' according to Soccerway.

Another point of interest: FIFA has decided that from now on the ranking will not be published every month but only after a major tournament or International Match Window has been played. This results in only 8 rankings to be published in 2019 and the January, March, May and August ranking to be skipped. FIFA probably anticipated that in these months only a few and also small changes would occur in the ranking caused by only a few friendlies played in the preceding month.
So this final preview officially concerns the February 2019 ranking.

As a service I provide the 'unrounded' FIFA-points in the preview below.

With the final of the Asian Nations Cup this afternoon ending in a big surprise as Qatar beat Japan quite comfortably with 3:1, only tomorrow's USA - Costa Rica friendly stands in the way of the final preview.

This is how the points and ranks could change for both teams:


     min pts    low pos    max pts   high pos
USA149626150125
Costa Rica146137146636

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.



Best movers:
38 - Qatar
23 - Japan
14 - Korea Republic

Worst movers:
-12 - Korea DPR
-9 - Syria, Turkmenistan

Best movers in the top 50:
23 - Japan
14 - Korea Republic
7 - Iran

Worst movers in the top 50:
-3 - Morocco
-2 - 13 teams

One team will once again improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (130 - 131 in November 2018)


February 2019 rank - Team - February 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1727,48 0 0,0
2 France 1725,88 0 0,0
3 Brazil 1676,14 0 0,0
4 Croatia 1634,38 0 0,0
5 England 1630,95 0 0,0
6 Portugal 1613,51 0 0,0
7 Uruguay 1608,94 0 0,0
8 Switzerland 1599,32 0 0,0
9 Spain 1590,69 0 0,0
10 Denmark 1589,15 0 0,0
11 Argentina 1582,38 0 0,0
12 Colombia 1575,15 0 0,0
13 Chile 1565,08 0 0,0
14 Sweden 1559,72 0 0,0
14 Netherlands 1559,52 0 0,0
16 Germany 1558,49 0 0,0
17 Mexico 1539,89 0 0,0
18 Italy 1538,64 0 0,0
19 Wales 1524,66 0 0,0
20 Poland 1518,37 0 0,0
20 Peru 1518,19 0 0,0
22 Iran 1515,74 7 35,0
23 Austria 1509,06 -1 0,0
24 Senegal 1504,97 -1 0,0
25 Romania 1500,98 -1 0,0
26 USA 1499,06 -1 2,0
27 Japan 1494,70 23 81,0
28 Tunisia 1493,42 -2 0,0
29 Slovakia 1482,50 -2 0,0
30 Ukraine 1481,94 -2 0,0
31 Serbia 1480,67 -2 0,0
32 Venezuela 1478,42 -1 0,0
33 Paraguay 1475,55 -1 0,0
34 Republic of Ireland 1474,20 -1 0,0
35 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1472,23 -1 0,0
36 Northern Ireland 1464,78 -1 0,0
37 Costa Rica 1463,65 -1 0,0
38 Iceland 1452,02 -1 0,0
39 Korea Republic 1451,21 14 46,0
40 Scotland 1446,29 -2 0,0
41 Turkey 1442,85 -2 0,0
42 Australia 1441,07 -1 5,0
43 Morocco 1439,86 -3 0,0
44 Czech Republic 1434,70 -2 0,0
45 Greece 1428,31 -2 0,0
46 Nigeria 1427,13 -2 0,0
46 Montenegro 1426,69 -2 0,0
48 Bulgaria 1425,17 -2 0,0
48 Norway 1424,57 -2 0,0
50 Russia 1423,50 -2 0,0
51 Congo DR 1419,89 -2 0,0
52 Hungary 1412,13 -1 0,0
52 Ghana 1411,66 -1 0,0
54 Jamaica 1404,03 0 0,0
55 Qatar 1398,33 38 140,0
56 Cameroon 1393,74 -1 0,0
57 Egypt 1393,28 -1 0,0
58 Ecuador 1382,31 -1 0,0
59 Finland 1377,90 -1 0,0
60 Bolivia 1374,25 -1 0,0
61 Albania 1371,85 -1 0,0
62 Burkina Faso 1371,11 -1 0,0
63 Slovenia 1368,98 -1 0,0
63 Honduras 1368,86 -1 0,0
65 Mali 1363,44 -1 0,0
66 Cote d'Ivoire 1355,50 -1 0,0
67 United Arab Emirates 1354,78 12 46,0
68 Guinea 1353,80 -2 0,0
69 Algeria 1348,97 -2 2,0
70 Saudi Arabia 1343,79 -1 9,0
71 FYR Macedonia 1342,67 -3 0,0
72 China PR 1338,88 4 22,0
73 El Salvador 1326,95 -3 0,0
74 South Africa 1324,72 -2 0,0
74 Cape Verde Islands 1324,56 -2 0,0
76 Panama 1324,08 -5 -2,0
77 Uganda 1320,16 -2 0,0
78 Belarus 1316,60 -2 0,0
79 Canada 1314,39 -1 0,0
80 Iraq 1309,72 8 39,0
81 Curacao 1305,93 -1 0,0
82 Zambia 1291,67 1 0,0
83 Syria 1286,46 -9 -36,0
84 Congo 1280,40 0 0,0
85 Lebanon 1276,63 -4 -19,0
85 Gabon 1276,60 0 0,0
87 Luxembourg 1276,15 -1 0,0
87 Cyprus 1275,73 -1 0,0
89 Uzbekistan 1275,23 6 24,0
90 Oman 1273,49 -8 -22,0
91 Georgia 1268,90 -2 0,0
92 Israel 1264,93 -2 0,0
93 Trinidad and Tobago 1260,26 -1 0,0
94 Benin 1257,40 0 0,0
95 Kyrgyzstan 1250,44 -4 -14,0
96 Estonia 1241,66 0 0,0
97 Faroe Islands 1238,33 1 0,0
97 Jordan 1237,98 12 42,0
99 Vietnam 1228,98 1 0,0
100 Palestine 1226,09 -1 -10,0
101 Mauritania 1222,19 0 0,0
101 Armenia 1221,94 0 0,0
103 India 1218,92 -6 -21,0
103 Haiti 1218,54 0 0,0
105 Libya 1216,56 -1 0,0
106 Kenya 1210,03 -1 0,0
107 Madagascar 1208,96 -1 0,0
108 Azerbaijan 1205,57 -1 0,0
109 Niger 1204,79 -1 0,0
110 Namibia 1190,72 1 0,0
111 Bahrain 1187,71 2 10,0
112 Central African Republic 1180,31 0 0,0
113 Zimbabwe 1174,96 1 0,0
114 Sierra Leone 1172,13 1 0,0
115 Thailand 1168,85 3 9,0
116 Mozambique 1166,69 1 0,0
117 Kazakhstan 1159,08 2 0,0
118 Guinea-Bissau 1157,63 2 0,0
119 New Zealand 1157,36 3 0,0
120 Tajikistan 1155,30 0 -3,0
121 Korea DPR 1152,27 -12 -44,0
122 Togo 1136,15 1 0,0
123 Chinese Taipei 1134,47 1 0,0
124 Philippines 1132,54 -8 -38,0
125 Angola 1131,37 0 0,0
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1126,31 0 0,0
127 Sudan 1120,11 0 0,0
128 Nicaragua 1119,23 1 0,0
129 Malawi 1115,12 1 0,0
130 Kosovo 1113,48 1 0,0
131 Latvia 1112,09 1 0,0
132 Andorra 1111,14 1 0,0
132 Lithuania 1111,06 1 0,0
134 St. Kitts and Nevis 1104,73 2 0,0
135 Rwanda 1094,39 2 0,0
136 Turkmenistan 1088,93 -9 -31,0
137 Tanzania 1087,05 1 0,0
138 Myanmar 1085,35 1 0,0
138 Burundi 1084,85 1 0,0
140 Hong Kong 1078,49 1 0,0
140 Swaziland 1077,82 1 0,0
142 Comoros 1076,41 1 0,0
143 Solomon Islands 1072,97 1 0,0
143 Yemen 1072,83 -8 -33,0
145 Botswana 1071,42 0 0,0
146 Lesotho 1068,89 0 0,0
147 Afghanistan 1065,75 0 -2,0
148 Equatorial Guinea 1062,94 0 0,0
149 Guatemala 1061,07 0 0,0
150 Liberia 1050,91 0 0,0
151 Ethiopia 1048,88 0 0,0
152 Maldives 1046,21 0 0,0
153 Suriname 1037,03 0 0,0
154 Dominican Republic 1036,44 0 0,0
154 New Caledonia 1036,30 0 0,0
156 Mauritius 1022,16 0 0,0
157 Tahiti 1020,00 0 0,0
158 Kuwait 1017,75 0 0,0
159 Indonesia 1002,66 0 0,0
160 Belize 1001,75 0 0,0
161 Nepal 1000,73 0 0,0
162 Barbados 998,17 0 0,0
163 Vanuatu 995,70 0 0,0
164 South Sudan 994,36 0 0,0
165 Singapore 990,51 0 0,0
166 Gambia 986,13 0 0,0
167 Malaysia 985,38 0 0,0
168 Papua New Guinea 984,00 0 0,0
169 Fiji 981,15 0 0,0
170 Moldova 978,89 0 0,0
171 St. Lucia 975,86 0 0,0
172 Cambodia 970,04 0 0,0
173 Grenada 967,85 0 0,0
174 Cuba 962,57 0 0,0
175 Chad 956,00 0 0,0
176 Bermuda 952,34 0 0,0
177 Guyana 950,79 0 0,0
178 Dominica 950,13 0 0,0
179 Puerto Rico 947,60 0 0,0
180 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 945,77 0 0,0
181 Liechtenstein 937,48 0 0,0
182 Malta 926,03 0 0,0
183 Macau 924,61 0 0,0
184 Laos 922,56 0 0,0
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920,00 0 0,0
186 Bhutan 917,03 0 0,0
187 Aruba 915,82 0 0,0
188 Mongolia 915,24 0 0,0
189 Seychelles 910,70 0 0,0
190 American Samoa 908,00 0 0,0
190 Cook Islands 908,00 0 0,0
192 Guam 907,22 0 0,0
192 Bangladesh 906,50 0 0,0
194 Gibraltar 904,71 0 0,0
195 Brunei Darussalam 902,72 0 0,0
196 Timor-Leste 899,72 0 0,0
197 Samoa 896,00 0 0,0
197 Djibouti 896,00 0 0,0
199 Pakistan 887,52 0 0,0
200 Montserrat 887,34 0 0,0
201 Sri Lanka 885,78 0 0,0
202 US Virgin Islands 880,89 0 0,0
203 Cayman Islands 874,44 0 0,0
204 Tonga 868,00 0 0,0
204 Eritrea 868,00 0 0,0
204 Somalia 868,00 0 0,0
207 British Virgin Islands 866,77 0 0,0
208 Turks and Caicos Islands 864,12 0 0,0
208 Anguilla 863,80 0 0,0
210 Bahamas 858,38 0 0,0
211 San Marino 854,12 0 0,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

22 comments:

  1. Thanks Ed.... Great movements after AFC cup.
    we appreciate if you can update next week the 2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC), showing expected Pots of the draw.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tarek,

      If the AFC match Calendar for 2019 is correct, the first round of Asian qualification, six two-legged play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked AFC teams, is played in the June International Match Window. So the seeding ranking would be the April 2019 ranking.
      At the moment only 3 matches with Asian teams involved are scheduled between the February ranking previewed above and the April ranking: Japan - Colombia, Vietnam - Korea Republic and Japan - Bolivia, all friendlies and played in the March window. This means that the April ranking for the lower ranked Asian teams is already fixed:

      seeded in round 1:
      Malaysia
      Cambodia
      Macau
      Laos
      Bhutan
      Mongolia

      unseeded in round 1:
      Guam
      Bangladesh
      Brunei Darussalam
      Timor-Leste
      Pakistan
      Sri Lanka

      All other AFC-teams have a bye to the second qualification round. And it is yet unknown which ranking will be used to seed the draw for that round. It also could be the April ranking, but maybe it will be the July ranking, the prevailing ranking if the second round is drawn in July, together with some other confederations.

      Delete
    2. Today a friendly Cambodia - Bangladesh is scheduled for March 9th (outside the International Match Window, I=5, max points exchanged 2.8 with a Bangladesh win).
      Don't know if it will be included. Bangladesh could overtake Guam with a win, but Mongolia is out of reach.

      Delete
  2. Ed how much points Sweden loses if the friendlies are counted

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If both friendlies are included Sweden loses 4 points.

      Delete
  3. Ed could you please use Point (.) in place of Comma (,) to indicate the decimal values.
    Thanks,
    A fam of this website for the past 2 years or more

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey, do you know when the women's ranking will be updated?

    ReplyDelete
  5. March 29th. See this calendar for the complete schedule in 2019.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, also is there no way to access the official fixture list anymore?

      Delete
  6. Ed, whould you please tell us if in change of ghatar, Iran was asian cup winner, how much it would climb?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Iran would have been 19th with 1534 points after a win in the semi-final against Japan and a win in the final against Qatar

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ed, I having trouble calculating the exact fifa ranking points of the last match-up between India and Bahrain in the Asian cup final. I came up with the calculation as 1218.82 instead of 1218.92 for India and I have 1185.37 for Bahrain. Can you show me the calculation?

    ReplyDelete
  9. The resulting points will be heavily dependent on previous matches played between the December 2018 ranking and the match IND-BHR. Here is some calculation information. If you need more, just let me know.

    India December 2018 ranking 1239.521
    after OMA friendly 1239.786; I = 5, We IND = 0.447
    after THA AFC Cup 1254.616; I = 35, We IND = 0.576
    after UAE AFC Cup 1238.788; I = 35, We IND = 0.452
    after BHR AFC Cup 1218.920; I = 35, We IND = 0.568

    Bahrain December 2018 ranking 1177.607
    after TJK friendly 1180.011; I = 5, We BHR = 0.519
    after PRK friendly 1182.589; I = 5, We BHR = 0.484
    after UAE AFC Cup 1186.743; I = 35, We BHR = 0.381
    after THA AFC Cup 1167.839; I = 35, We BHR = 0.540
    after IND AFC Cup 1187.707; I = 35, We BHR = 0.432

    ReplyDelete
  10. After the publication of the February ranking yesterday I have determined that 4 adjustments to my original assumptions have been made:
    - 31/12 Palestine - Kyrgyzstan friendly included
    - 31/12 Vietnam - Philippines friendly excluded
    - 11/1 Estonia - Finland friendly included
    - 15/1 Estonia - Iceland friendly included
    These matches and all subsequent matches of involved teams are recalculated. This results in negligible changes in rounded points compared to the preview above, except for the teams in the 4 mentioned matches.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Ed why the matches of Estonia were included and Sweden not?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Comparing the squad in the friendly against Finland with the Swedish players that played Russia for the Nations League in November I see 22 different players (!).
    I think the Swedes have indicated to FIFA that their matches in Qatar are just training matches, not official A-internationals.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Ed
    When you made the adjustments on the fifa calculations how did fifa determined that the matchup between Vietnam and Philippines on December 31 was excluded in the regular fifa friendlies and how do we determine that which fifa international friendly games count toward the fifa ranking?


    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  14. As you can understand, each match that is included or after all excluded from the ranking calculation influences the starting value for the next match of a team and thus the resulting FIFA ranking points of the team on the publishing date of a ranking. So it's very important when making a reliable prediction of the next ranking to have one official source which matches to include. FIFA provided that source 'since forever', but now it's suddenly gone. Don't know why and if it will be temporarily or not.

    FIFA has it's own specific set of conditions when evaluating if a match can be included in the ranking:
    - Observance of the Laws of the Game;
    - The main referee and both assistants must be listed on the current FIFA list of international referees;
    - It is not compulsory that the fourth official be included on the FIFA list of international referees but if a non-FIFA listed fourth official is required to replace the referee or assistant during an international "A" match, this match will not be included;
    - The referee and assistant referees shall be from a neutral country unless otherwise previously agreed by the teams concerned;
    - Only a maximum of six substitutions per team can be made during the match.
    Furthermore a team can express to FIFA that the match is just a training match. It's obvious that a match needs to be known at FIFA's to be included at all.

    I just saw that the match Vietnam-Philippines on December 31st was played as 3 parts of 30 minutes each and that's against the Laws of the Game. So after all it was evident that that match should be excluded. FIFA can change the status of a match (in- or exclude) when they receive the official match report, which can take several days from certain regions.
    So you can see, it's a continuous process and it takes some effort to keep track of all the changes, updates, inclusions and exclusions. But that's a necessary part if you want to be as reliable as possible.

    For now, the only official 'source' is the published ranking so eventual adjustments have to be made retroactively. It goes without saying that I surely hope they reinstate their fixture list as soon as possible...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I emailed Fifa (repeatedly!) about this and eventually received the below reply:

      "Thank you for your email.
      Please note that live scores and results will only be available via the Official FIFA App in the future.
      We hope you find the above information helpful and thank you for your commitment to the beautiful game."

      So it is not looking good for it being restored! I replied saying the app doesn't actually give a list of international scores only so the reply wasn't helpful at all, but am still waiting on a response!

      Delete
    2. Thanks for this info, Chappers. I also emailed but got no reply at all. But then again, I only emailed once :)

      The app indeed does not give anything that remotely resembles a fixture list with matches between national football teams, but maybe that's still to come. For now, bummer !

      Delete
  15. I have a question about the February Fifa ranking on both Swaziland and Hong Kong at 140th with 1078 points. How is it that Swaziland gets the tie-breaker over Hong Kong? I have Hong Kong with the exact number of points of 1078.49 and Swaziland with 1077.82 points.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yemen and Solomon Islands at spot 143 are also not in the correct order. Other teams on same rounded points are presented in the correct order.

      The exact order could mean a lot of difference when seeding teams though, so all I can say is: very sloppy, presenting it in this random way. It doesn't do any justice to the status FIFA wants to give to the ranking.

      Delete