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Monday, July 8, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking (II)

Yesterday Brazil and Mexico became champions of their confederation. The African Cup of Nations has just advanced to the quarter finals. The Pacific Games started today.

Here is a second preview of the probable July 2019 ranking, to be published on July 25th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 31 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 39 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.


Probable July 2019 rank - Team - Probable July 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Belgium 1746 0 0,0
2 Brazil 1726 1 45,0
3 France 1718 -1 0,0
4 England 1652 0 0,0
5 Uruguay 1637 3 22,0
6 Portugal 1631 -1 0,0
7 Croatia 1625 -1 0,0
8 Colombia 1622 5 42,0
9 Spain 1617 -2 0,0
10 Argentina 1610 1 28,0
11 Switzerland 1605 -2 0,0
12 Mexico 1604 6 47,0
13 Denmark 1589 -3 0,0
14 Chile 1583 2 22,0
15 Germany 1582 -4 0,0
16 Italy 1569 -2 0,0
16 Netherlands 1569 -2 0,0
18 Senegal 1567 4 52,0
19 Sweden 1558 -2 0,0
20 Peru 1552 1 36,0
21 Poland 1550 -2 0,0
22 USA 1548 8 53,0
23 Iran 1518 -3 0,0
24 Wales 1514 -1 0,0
25 Ukraine 1513 -1 0,0
26 Venezuela 1505 7 20,0
27 Austria 1498 -1 0,0
28 Romania 1497 -1 0,0
29 Northern Ireland 1496 -1 0,0
30 Slovakia 1491 1 0,0
31 Tunisia 1490 -6 -11,0
32 Republic of Ireland 1489 0 0,0
33 Japan 1481 -5 -15,0
34 Serbia 1477 0 0,0
35 Iceland 1473 0 0,0
36 Nigeria 1468 9 35,0
37 Korea Republic 1467 0 0,0
37 Turkey 1467 0 0,0
39 Paraguay 1464 -3 -4,0
40 Morocco 1461 7 32,0
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1453 -2 0,0
42 Czech Republic 1448 -1 0,0
43 Costa Rica 1445 -4 -8,0
44 Hungary 1442 -2 0,0
45 Australia 1436 -2 0,0
45 Russia 1436 -2 0,0
47 Scotland 1433 -2 0,0
48 Algeria 1431 20 85,0
48 Egypt 1431 10 47,0
50 Norway 1429 -3 0,0
51 Ghana 1427 -1 4,0
52 Jamaica 1425 2 28,0
53 Cameroon 1409 -2 5,0
54 Greece 1403 -2 0,0
55 Montenegro 1401 -2 0,0
56 Congo DR 1395 -7 -29,0
57 Cote d'Ivoire 1394 5 29,0
57 Finland 1394 -1 0,0
59 Mali 1389 3 24,0
60 Bulgaria 1388 -3 0,0
61 Burkina Faso 1381 -2 0,0
62 Qatar 1375 -7 -21,0
63 Slovenia 1363 2 0,0
64 Albania 1362 2 0,0
65 United Arab Emirates 1360 2 0,0
66 Ecuador 1359 -6 -16,0
67 Honduras 1350 -6 -18,0
68 Saudi Arabia 1342 1 0,0
69 El Salvador 1341 0 -1,0
70 South Africa 1339 2 4,0
71 China PR 1333 2 0,0
71 North Macedonia 1333 2 0,0
73 Bolivia 1332 -11 -33,0
74 Panama 1331 1 9,0
75 Guinea 1325 -4 -11,0
76 Cape Verde Islands 1319 0 0,0
77 Iraq 1315 0 0,0
78 Canada 1312 0 -2,0
79 Curacao 1309 0 7,0
80 Uganda 1305 0 6,0
81 Zambia 1299 0 1,0
82 Benin 1295 6 22,0
83 Haiti 1288 18 69,0
84 Israel 1286 -2 0,0
84 Belarus 1286 -2 0,0
84 Syria 1286 1 8,0
84 Uzbekistan 1286 -2 0,0
88 Oman 1277 -2 0,0
88 Lebanon 1277 -2 0,0
90 Gabon 1272 -1 0,0
91 Congo 1265 -1 0,0
91 Luxembourg 1265 -1 0,0
93 Cyprus 1258 0 0,0
94 Madagascar 1257 14 59,0
95 Georgia 1255 -1 0,0
96 Kyrgyzstan 1252 -1 0,0
97 Vietnam 1232 -1 0,0
98 Armenia 1230 -1 0,0
99 Jordan 1229 -1 0,0
100 Estonia 1228 -1 0,0
101 Trinidad and Tobago 1226 -9 -34,0
102 Palestine 1224 -2 0,0
103 India 1214 -2 -5,0
104 Niger 1209 0 0,0
105 Libya 1207 0 0,0
106 Mauritania 1203 -3 -7,0
107 Kenya 1201 -2 -6,0
108 Faroe Islands 1200 -1 0,0
109 Azerbaijan 1188 1 0,0
109 Bahrain 1188 1 0,0
111 Central African Republic 1184 1 0,0
112 Zimbabwe 1174 -3 -18,0
112 Kazakhstan 1174 2 0,0
114 Sierra Leone 1172 1 0,0
115 Thailand 1165 1 0,0
116 Mozambique 1163 1 0,0
117 New Zealand 1157 2 0,0
118 Tajikistan 1152 2 1,0
119 Kosovo 1149 2 0,0
120 Namibia 1148 -7 -34,0
121 Korea DPR 1145 1 -3,0
122 Angola 1144 1 2,0
123 Guinea-Bissau 1143 -5 -15,0
124 Antigua and Barbuda 1136 0 0,0
125 Chinese Taipei 1132 0 0,0
126 Philippines 1131 0 0,0
126 Malawi 1131 0 0,0
128 Togo 1127 0 0,0
129 Sudan 1106 1 0,0
130 Lithuania 1101 2 0,0
131 St. Kitts and Nevis 1096 2 0,0
132 Turkmenistan 1091 3 0,0
133 Rwanda 1088 3 0,0
134 Latvia 1086 3 0,0
135 Myanmar 1084 3 0,0
136 Andorra 1082 3 0,0
137 Solomon Islands 1079 3 2,0
138 Tanzania 1075 -7 -30,0
138 Nicaragua 1075 -9 -43,0
140 Equatorial Guinea 1074 1 0,0
140 Hong Kong 1074 1 0,0
140 Eswatini 1074 1 0,0
143 Yemen 1073 1 0,0
144 Lesotho 1072 1 0,0
144 Guatemala 1072 1 0,0
146 Comoros 1071 2 3,0
147 Botswana 1069 0 0,0
148 Burundi 1060 -14 -32,0
149 Afghanistan 1058 0 0,0
150 Ethiopia 1049 0 0,0
151 Suriname 1045 1 0,0
152 Maldives 1044 -1 -2,0
152 Liberia 1044 1 0,0
154 Dominican Republic 1028 0 0,0
155 New Caledonia 1025 0 -1,0
156 Kuwait 1022 0 0,0
157 Mauritius 1020 0 0,0
158 Tahiti 1014 0 -1,0
159 Malaysia 1009 0 0,0
160 Indonesia 1008 0 3,0
161 Gambia 1006 0 4,0
162 Vanuatu 1001 1 4,0
163 Fiji 1000 4 8,0
164 Singapore 999 -2 0,0
165 Barbados 996 -1 0,0
166 Nepal 995 -1 0,0
167 Belize 994 -1 0,0
168 South Sudan 989 0 0,0
169 Cambodia 988 0 0,0
170 Papua New Guinea 986 1 2,0
171 Moldova 985 -1 0,0
172 St. Lucia 975 0 0,0
173 Grenada 973 0 0,0
174 Bermuda 972 0 8,0
175 Chad 956 1 0,0
176 Dominica 954 1 0,0
176 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 954 1 0,0
178 Guyana 953 -1 -1,0
179 Cuba 950 -4 -11,0
180 Puerto Rico 940 0 0,0
181 Malta 939 0 0,0
182 Macau 936 0 0,0
183 Liechtenstein 922 0 0,0
183 Bangladesh 922 0 0,0
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 0 0,0
186 Bhutan 916 0 0,0
187 Mongolia 914 0 0,0
188 Laos 912 0 0,0
189 Aruba 909 0 0,0
190 Guam 908 0 0,0
190 Cook Islands 908 0 0,0
192 Brunei Darussalam 904 1 0,0
193 American Samoa 900 -3 -8,0
193 Seychelles 900 1 -2,0
195 Djibouti 896 0 0,0
196 Montserrat 895 1 0,0
197 Samoa 894 -2 -2,0
198 Gibraltar 893 0 0,0
199 US Virgin Islands 888 0 0,0
200 Timor-Leste 879 0 0,0
201 Sri Lanka 872 0 0,0
202 Eritrea 868 0 0,0
202 Somalia 868 0 0,0
204 Cayman Islands 867 1 0,0
204 Pakistan 867 1 0,0
204 British Virgin Islands 867 1 0,0
207 Tonga 862 -5 -6,0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 862 1 0,0
209 Anguilla 857 0 0,0
210 Bahamas 855 0 0,0
211 San Marino 839 0 0,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

16 comments:

  1. Hello Ed, can you please report how many points each confederation won/lost (split into two sources - international matches, and knockout matches where the is always some gain).
    Thanks you very much,
    Amir

    ReplyDelete
  2. I can sense you want to make some point with this data :)

    What do you mean with international matches ? All matches between NT-teams are internationals.
    I shall see what I can do for you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I meant intercontinental matches of course.
      Just trying to understand the flow of the rankings better, since the points within continent tend to get redistributed accoring to real strength on Elo System.
      Thank you very much for all your efforts!

      Delete
  3. Hey Ed, now that CONCACAF has finalized it's format, can we get a look at the race for the Hex (June 2020 rankings)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Dennis, indeed did CONCACAF anounce today their qualification format for WC 2022. The seeding of the teams will be based on the June 2020 ranking:
      - top 6 plays a double round robin hexagonal from Sep 2020 to Sep 2021; top 3 from the hex qualifies for Qatar.
      - rest of the teams (7-35) play in 8 groups (5 of 4 teams and 3 of 3 teams) a double round robin from Sep 2020 to Nov 2020
      - the 8 group winners go into a knock-out phase with quarter-finals, semi-finals and a final (all home-and-away play-offs) in Mar, Jun and Sep 2021.
      - the winner of the knock-out stage will finally play in a home-and-away play-off against the number 4 of the hexagonal in Oct 2021 for a spot in a intercontinental play-off.

      So the June 2020 ranking will indeed be important for CONCACAF.
      Currently the CONCACAF teams have only scheduled the matches in the CONCACAF Nations League this Sep, Oct and Nov.
      I will give a detailed preview of this competition (simulations) and also the resulting June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, somewhere this or next month.

      Delete
    2. Wow, this format is such exlusive format, I wonder if any team would be better trying to get out of the top 6, almost certainly not but still might be interesting seeing the simulations for each scenario for the relevant teams.

      Delete
    3. The fact that is was published only after the Gold Cup results are known doesn't look good.
      The July 2019 top 6 teams probably have such a big advatange over the other teams under the new format.
      That does make tge nations league much more important for the teams around 6th place, perhaps that was partially the reason for the change.

      Delete
    4. The CONCACAF format is truly bizarre, but if FIFA has approved it that means that UEFA can now set up its qualification process anyway it wants.

      Delete
    5. Any advantage to being out of the top 6 is clearly dependent on CONCACAF drawing Asia or Oceania in the playoffs. If they draw South America, forget it. Then you desperately want to be in the Hex.

      Delete
    6. You are right ! When will be the draw for inter-confederation play-offs ?

      Delete
  4. News also by CAF regarding the african formats of the qualifiers. Unfortunately the Caf website doesn't work very well for me at the moment. Link https://i.imgur.com/LLqyunV.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes, CAF also announced their qualification format for the World Cup 2022. Seeding for the first round could be based on the June 2019 or July 2019 ranking, dependent on the exact date of the first round draw.
    - Sep 2019: the first round will consist of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked teams;
    - Jun, Sep 2020 and Sep, Oct and Nov 2021: the 14 winners join the other 26 African teams to be drawn in 10 groups of 4 teams;
    - Mar 2022: the 10 group winners will be drawn in 5 home-and-away play-offs. The 5 winners qualify for Qatar.

    The same brutal format as for the WC 2014 in Brazil.
    Timing of the 3 stages is derived from the Feasibility study on the increase of the number of teams from 32 to 48 in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Btw: the only difference in composition of the 28 lowest ranked African teams between the June and July ranking:
    - when June is used for seeding Zimbabwe gets a bye to the second round;
    - when July is used for seeding Central African Republic will get the bye to the second round instead of Zimbabwe.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The new CONCACAF World Cup qualifying format is utterly insane. 29 teams battling for a quarter of a place! Who dreamt up this ridiculous idea? Hopefully they will have a change of heart before the draw is made.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Quick info regarding African 2022 World Cup Qualification (with courtesy on FIFA):

    - July 2019 ranking are used for the seeding of round 1
    - The draw for round 1 will be held on 27 July 2019
    - The following timing for matches to be held: Round 1 (September 2019); Round 2 (March 2020 - October 2021); Round 3 (November 2021)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks mono,
    so the 28 teams for the 14 CAF first round qualification play-offs are:

    seeded:
    Zimbabwe - 1174 pts
    Sierra Leone - 1172
    Mozambique - 1163
    Namibia - 1148
    Angola - 1144
    Guinea-Bissau - 1143
    Malawi - 1131
    Togo - 1127
    Sudan - 1106
    Rwanda - 1088
    Tanzania - 1075
    Equatorial Guinea - 1074
    Eswatini - 1074
    Lesotho - 1072

    unseeded:
    Comoros - 1071
    Botswana - 1069
    Burundi - 1060
    Ethiopia - 1049
    Liberia - 1044
    Mauritius - 1020
    Gambia - 1006
    South Sudan - 989
    Chad - 956
    Sao Tome e Principe - 920
    Seychelles - 900
    Djibouti - 896
    Eritrea - 868
    Somalia - 868

    In this July ranking are the following predicted results included for matches played in the upcoming Indian Ocean Islands Games 2019 (matches up until July 21st are included in the July ranking):
    Mauritius - Seychelles 1:0
    Madagascar - Seychelles 1:0
    Comoros - Maldives 1:0

    ReplyDelete