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Sunday, July 21, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday July 25th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between June 12th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-06-14 Madagascar - Mauritania 1:3 (Morocco; 4x25 mins)

Included are all other friendlies and of course the high-valued matches in the continental cups (Copa America, Gold Cup and CAF Nations Cup). 
Then followed the not so aptly named Intercontinental Cup in India (which turned out to be between four Asian teams), the Pacific Games in Samoa and the still running Indian Ocean Island Games in Mauritius. These are all treated as friendly tournaments for the ranking calculation. So teams will lose points in knock-out matches in these tournaments.

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. 

We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)


Best movers:
28 - Algeria
18 - Haiti
13 - Madagascar

Worst movers:
-14 - Burundi
-11 - Bolivia
-9 - Trinidad and Tobago

Best movers in the top 50:
28 - Algeria
12 - Nigeria
9 - Egypt

Worst movers in the top 50:
-5 - Japan, Costa Rica
-4 - Germany

Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Senegal (20 - 22 in June 2019)
Venezuela (26 - 29 in August 2014)
Kosovo (120 - 121 in June 2019)

One team returns to their lowest ranking:
Tonga (207 in April 2018)



July 2019 rank - Team - July 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Belgium 1745.69 0 0
2 Brazil 1726.28 1 45
3 France 1718.24 -1 0
4 England 1651.86 0 0
5 Uruguay 1636.81 3 22
6 Portugal 1631.09 -1 0
7 Croatia 1624.88 -1 0
8 Colombia 1622.01 5 42
9 Spain 1617.43 -2 0
10 Argentina 1609.73 1 28
11 Switzerland 1605.36 -2 0
12 Mexico 1603.89 6 47
13 Denmark 1589.21 -3 0
14 Chile 1583.09 2 22
15 Germany 1582.29 -4 0
16 Italy 1569.41 -2 0
16 Netherlands 1568.57 -2 0
18 Sweden 1557.67 -1 0
19 Peru 1551.55 2 36
20 Senegal 1550.19 2 35
20 Poland 1549.91 -1 0
22 USA 1548.42 8 53
23 Iran 1518.13 -3 0
24 Wales 1513.54 -1 0
25 Ukraine 1512.50 -1 0
26 Venezuela 1504.94 7 20
27 Austria 1498.01 -1 0
28 Romania 1497.25 -1 0
28 Tunisia 1497.19 -3 -4
30 Northern Ireland 1496.19 -2 0
31 Slovakia 1490.57 0 0
32 Republic of Ireland 1489.13 0 0
33 Nigeria 1481.28 12 48
33 Japan 1480.91 -5 -15
35 Serbia 1477.08 -1 0
36 Iceland 1473.39 -1 0
37 Korea Republic 1467.07 0 0
37 Turkey 1466.73 0 0
39 Paraguay 1464.14 -3 -4
40 Algeria 1462.86 28 117
41 Morocco 1461.38 6 32
42 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1452.86 -3 0
43 Czech Republic 1448.20 -2 0
44 Costa Rica 1445.36 -5 -8
45 Hungary 1441.61 -3 0
46 Australia 1436.20 -3 0
46 Russia 1435.93 -3 0
48 Scotland 1432.90 -3 0
49 Egypt 1430.94 9 47
50 Norway 1429.02 -3 0
51 Ghana 1428.32 -1 5
52 Jamaica 1425.29 2 28
53 Cameroon 1408.78 -2 5
54 Greece 1403.43 -2 0
55 Montenegro 1400.64 -2 0
56 Congo DR 1395.40 -7 -29
57 Cote d'Ivoire 1394.08 5 29
57 Finland 1393.58 -1 0
59 Mali 1388.97 3 24
60 Bulgaria 1387.64 -3 0
61 Burkina Faso 1380.56 -2 0
62 Qatar 1375.19 -7 -21
63 Slovenia 1362.95 2 0
64 Albania 1362.22 2 0
65 United Arab Emirates 1359.74 2 0
66 Ecuador 1359.01 -6 -16
67 Honduras 1349.81 -6 -18
68 Saudi Arabia 1341.57 1 0
69 El Salvador 1341.44 0 -1
70 South Africa 1338.84 2 4
71 China PR 1333.48 2 0
71 North Macedonia 1333.05 2 0
73 Bolivia 1332.08 -11 -33
74 Panama 1331.47 1 9
75 Guinea 1325.29 -4 -11
76 Cape Verde Islands 1318.88 0 0
77 Iraq 1315.25 0 0
78 Canada 1311.90 0 -2
79 Curacao 1309.08 0 7
80 Uganda 1304.81 0 6
81 Zambia 1298.59 0 1
82 Benin 1294.58 6 22
83 Haiti 1288.07 18 69
84 Israel 1286.39 -2 0
84 Belarus 1286.22 -2 0
84 Uzbekistan 1285.81 -2 0
87 Syria 1276.73 -2 -1
87 Oman 1276.63 -1 0
87 Lebanon 1276.63 -1 0
90 Gabon 1272.19 -1 0
91 Congo 1265.41 -1 0
91 Luxembourg 1265.25 -1 0
93 Cyprus 1258.44 0 0
94 Georgia 1255.23 0 0
95 Madagascar 1253.46 13 55
96 Kyrgyzstan 1252.37 -1 0
97 Vietnam 1232.17 -1 0
98 Armenia 1229.76 -1 0
99 Jordan 1229.37 -1 0
100 Estonia 1227.98 -1 0
101 Trinidad and Tobago 1225.85 -9 -34
102 Palestine 1224.22 -2 0
103 India 1213.86 -2 -5
104 Niger 1209.12 0 0
105 Libya 1206.62 0 0
106 Mauritania 1202.89 -3 -7
107 Kenya 1200.85 -2 -6
108 Faroe Islands 1200.34 -1 0
109 Azerbaijan 1187.79 1 0
109 Bahrain 1187.71 1 0
111 Central African Republic 1184.32 1 0
112 Zimbabwe 1174.09 -3 -18
112 Kazakhstan 1173.78 2 0
114 Sierra Leone 1172.13 1 0
115 Thailand 1164.79 1 0
116 Mozambique 1162.70 1 0
117 New Zealand 1157.36 2 0
118 Korea DPR 1154.44 4 6
119 Tajikistan 1151.86 1 1
120 Kosovo 1148.70 1 0
121 Namibia 1147.97 -8 -34
122 Angola 1143.91 1 2
123 Guinea-Bissau 1143.07 -5 -15
124 Antigua and Barbuda 1136.30 0 0
125 Chinese Taipei 1131.73 0 0
126 Philippines 1131.41 0 0
126 Malawi 1130.54 0 0
128 Togo 1126.50 0 0
129 Sudan 1106.24 1 0
130 Lithuania 1101.49 2 0
131 St. Kitts and Nevis 1096.26 2 0
132 Turkmenistan 1090.87 3 0
133 Rwanda 1087.67 3 0
134 Latvia 1085.79 3 0
135 Myanmar 1084.31 3 0
136 Andorra 1081.52 3 0
137 Tanzania 1075.31 -6 -30
137 Nicaragua 1074.56 -8 -43
139 Equatorial Guinea 1074.12 2 0
139 Hong Kong 1073.95 2 0
139 Eswatini 1073.80 2 0
142 Solomon Islands 1072.78 -2 -4
142 Yemen 1072.76 2 0
144 Lesotho 1071.73 1 0
144 Guatemala 1071.71 1 0
146 Comoros 1070.89 2 3
147 Botswana 1069.04 0 0
148 Burundi 1059.85 -14 -32
149 Afghanistan 1057.79 0 0
150 Ethiopia 1048.88 0 0
151 Suriname 1045.50 1 0
152 Maldives 1043.82 -1 -2
152 Liberia 1043.74 1 0
154 New Caledonia 1035.12 1 9
155 Dominican Republic 1027.71 -1 0
156 Kuwait 1022.42 0 0
157 Mauritius 1019.29 0 -1
158 Tahiti 1014.27 0 -1
159 Malaysia 1009.05 0 0
160 Indonesia 1007.89 0 3
161 Gambia 1005.82 0 4
162 Singapore   999.45 0 0
163 Barbados   996.39 1 0
163 Fiji   996.27 4 4
163 Vanuatu   995.62 0 -1
166 Nepal   994.78 -1 0
167 Belize   993.51 -1 0
168 Papua New Guinea   990.55 3 7
169 South Sudan   989.48 -1 0
170 Cambodia   987.95 -1 0
171 Moldova   984.62 -1 0
172 St. Lucia   974.00 0 0
173 Grenada   972.61 0 0
174 Bermuda   971.00 0 8
175 Chad   956.00 1 0
176 Dominica   954.30 1 0
176 St. Vincent and the Grenadines   953.92 1 0
178 Guyana   952.52 -1 -1
179 Cuba   950.37 -4 -11
180 Puerto Rico   940.36 0 0
181 Malta   938.59 0 0
182 Macau   936.13 0 0
183 Liechtenstein   921.94 0 0
183 Bangladesh   921.93 0 0
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe   920.00 0 0
186 Bhutan   915.97 0 0
187 Mongolia   914.06 0 0
188 Laos   912.07 0 0
189 Aruba   909.07 0 0
190 Guam   908.28 0 0
190 Cook Islands   908.00 0 0
192 Seychelles   904.49 2 2
192 Brunei Darussalam   903.90 1 0
194 American Samoa   900.27 -4 -8
195 Djibouti   896.00 0 0
196 Montserrat   894.66 1 0
197 Samoa   894.26 -2 -2
198 Gibraltar   892.60 0 0
199 US Virgin Islands   888.14 0 0
200 Timor-Leste   879.43 0 0
201 Sri Lanka   872.13 0 0
202 Eritrea   868.00 0 0
202 Somalia   868.00 0 0
204 Cayman Islands   867.12 1 0
204 Pakistan   866.81 1 0
204 British Virgin Islands   866.70 1 0
207 Tonga   861.81 -5 -6
207 Turks and Caicos Islands   861.67 1 0
209 Anguilla   856.55 0 0
210 Bahamas   854.65 0 0
211 San Marino   839.45 0 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

28 comments:

  1. Are the FIFA points calculated every match or does every match played between ranking windows use the points from the previous ranking to calculate new points

    ReplyDelete
  2. Points are updated after every match.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Ed
    In the October 25, 2018 fifa rankings there was a total of 162 games played. I Came up with 163 games played Friendlies: 60 games, CONCACAF Nations league: 11 games, African cup of Nations qualifying: 46 games and UEFA Nations League: 46 Games. Can you compare your listings with the fifa website link ranking archive.
    There maybe one friendly game that was excluded in the October 25, 2018 rankings. It may have been the Barbados-St Vincent/Grenadines match on either September 30 or October 1.
    Here' the link:
    Source: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/belgium-on-top-as-gibraltar-s-history-makers-soar

    Thanks



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I also have 163 matches counting for the October 2018 ranking. FIFA indeed stated that 162 matches were incorporated.

      Matches in order of least points exchanged in that period:
      2018-10-11 TUR-BIH 0:0 0.114 pts
      2018-09-30 VIN-BRB 1:1 0.195 pts
      2018-10-16 USA-PER 1:1 0.238 pts
      2018-10-10 ITA-UKR 1:1 0.410 pts

      I agree, highly likely it's the VIN-BRB friendly that FIFA omitted. But we don't know for sure. And with this small amount of points exchanged it can take a while before it will reveal itself in a one point difference in a published FIFA ranking with rounded points. I will mark the matches for future reference though. Thanks Anon.

      Delete
    2. El Salvador's points total is a bit off (your preview compared to the July 2019 ranking). They did play Barbados in the CNL qualis on 14-10-2018. That's a couple of weeks after 2018-09-30 VIN-BRB 1:1 0.195 pts (FYI this game isn't listed by soccerway while the other 3 games have been listed on the same site).

      Apropos: sorry about going on and on about a potential CAF NL in that other thread.

      Delete
  4. Algeria the winner of can could beat Senegal twice and still after sengal with 20

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Algeria won 117 pts while Senegal won only 35 pts, Algeria was 68 very far from Senegal in the previous Ranking

      Delete
  5. @Ed: can you check El Salvador, ranked 69th according to your preview? On the July 25 ranking they're ranked 68th and have 1342 points. Surely 1341.44 will be rounded down to 1341. For example the US (1548.42) and Panama (1331.47) were rounded down to 1548 and 1331 respectively.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let me finish reviewing my calculations, but I think I know what FIFA has done. I got SLV with 1341.5007 and BRB with 996.4476

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. OK, this is what I did to explain the difference in SLV ranking.

    The culprit is the GUY-BRB match of 2019-09-06, that finished 2-2 (points exchanged=0.9713). On 2019-12-06, this match was conceded to GUY because of BRB's ineligible players with the score of 3-0. Then, they recalculated the points exchanged, based on the points of both countries ON THAT DAY (points exchanged=8.3895), and WITHOUT modifying the points obtained by both teams between 2019-09-06 and 2019-12-06 (so that SLV faced on 2019-10-13 a BRB with more points). However, FIFA only considered 8.3895-0.9713=7.4182 points exchanged. To be more precise, on 2019-12-06 FIFA added 7.4182 points to GUY, and subtracted 7.4182 to BRB.

    Also, I excluded the VIN-BRB match of 2018-09-30

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have SLV with 1341.5007, BRB with 996.4476 and GUY with 952.5388

      Delete
    2. Hi Martin,

      that would explain this mess. Nice research and a plausible result ! Thanks.

      Other adjustments:
      FIFA excluded and I included:
      2019-06-17 TUN-BDI 2:1
      2019-06-15 GHA-RSA 0:0

      FIFA included and I excluded
      2019-06-14 MAD-MTN 1:3 (4x25 mins)

      Furthermore they finally decided to include the not played but awarded return leg 2019-06-11 Sri Lanka - Macau 3:0 into the ranking calculation. Pffff, unlogical decision.

      With these changes I include 147 matches in the July ranking while FIFA indicated they included 146 matches. Most obvious candidate match to exclude:
      2019-06-14 CMR-MLI friendly 1:1 0.186

      Delete
    3. How did fifa come up with 8.3895 when subtracting 0.9713 from it to get the 7.4182 points exchange? I came up with 8.4713. What were the beginning values of both Barbados and Guyana before the September 6, 2018 Match-up?

      Thanks

      Delete
    4. Tanzania v Zimbabwe is also a candidate for getting to 146. There's no change in the rankings of either nation if this one is excluded.

      Delete
    5. @ Anon: 8.4713 would be the points exchanged IF you were to modify the result of the match at the 2019-09-06. BUT that is NOT what FIFA would have done. They KEPT the 2-2 result on 2019-09-06 (which gives the 0.9713). As a consequence, on 2019-12-06, GUY had 943.39, and BRB had 1005.50. On that day, FIFA modified the result to 3-0 in favor of GUY. Given the points at that day, we get the 8.3895 points exchanged, which is reduced to 7.4182 because they had already included 0.9713.

      Just in case, that is what I think FIFA is doing, which is similar to what they used to do with the pre-2018 ranking (i.e., whenever a result was changed, they considered the points at the day of the decision, not the day the match was played). And I manage to get SLV points.

      Delete
    6. So we add the 7.4182 to 943.39 for Guyana and subtract 7.4182 from 1005.50 for Barbados on December 6, 2018? How does this impact on the other matches that they both played between September 6, 2018 and December 6, 2018? Barbados played El Salvador on October 13 and U.S Virgin Islands on November 18. Guyana played Turks & Caicos Islands on October 13. What were the point exchanges on those Games.

      Thank you

      Delete
  8. So we add the 7.4182 to 943.39 for Guyana and subtract 7.4182 from 1005.50 for Barbados on December 6, 2018? How does this impact on the other matches that they both played between September 6, 2018 and December 6, 2018? Barbados played El Salvador on October 13 and U.S Virgin Islands on November 18. Guyana played Turks & Caicos Islands on October 13. What were the point exchanges on those Games.

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon, as Martin already indicated in his first comment: points for affected matches played between Sep 6th 2018 and Dec 6th 2018 do not change.

      Delete
  9. Hi Ed
    Were the following non-friendly fifa matches on June 16, 2019 excluded from the July 25th fifa rankings?

    Tanzania 1-1 Zimbabwe
    Senegal 1-0 Nigeria
    Algeria 3-2 Mali

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anon,
    SEN-NGA and ALG-MLI were included.
    It is not clear if TAN-ZIM is included or excluded. Points-exchange is quite low (0.421) and both inclusion and exclusion leads to the same rounded FIFA points for both teams.

    So, unfortunately, the category 'non-FIFA friendlies' in Soccerway can't be used to distinguish between in- or exclusion.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Ed
    Someone had mentioned about Mozambique using 11 substitutions against Eswatini back on March 10 if a fifa Friendly match. It was mentioned back on June 4, 2019 in the june fifa ranking final preview that the match up was demoted as an "A" international game. Was that match up Included or Excluded in the April 4, 2019 Fifa rankings. I didn't quite understand what he was mentioning.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  12. FIFA used to have a set of rules to determine if a match is viable for inclusion in the ranking calculation. One of the rules was that only a maximum of 6 substitutions per team is allowed. When a team uses more than 6 substitutions in a match (like Mozambique in MOZ-SWZ on March 10th 2019) then the match is automatically excluded from the ranking calculation.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Thank you so much Ed.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hello The FIFA site has allowed us to calculate the number of critics expected for the next order and then this feature disappeared from the site. What is the way to do this?

    ReplyDelete