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Sunday, April 14, 2019

CAF Nations Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the African Cup of Nations 2019, played from June 21st to July 19th in Egypt. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 and AFC Nations Cup 2019 tournaments.

CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:



group A          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Egypt 45,14 25,63 17,35 11,88
Congo DR 19,68 26,60 29,92 23,80
Zimbabwe 17,02 24,94 28,52 29,52
Uganda 18,16 22,83 24,21 34,80
group B          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Nigeria 54,02 27,42 13,19 5,37
Guinea 21,12 27,79 26,48 24,61
Burundi 12,31 23,01 32,59 32,09
Madagascar 12,55 21,78 27,74 37,93
group C          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Senegal 61,68 22,78 10,63 4,91
Algeria 20,59 36,92 25,97 16,52
Kenya 9,73 20,47 35,38 34,42
Tanzania 8,00 19,83 28,02 44,15
group D          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Morocco 46,62 27,15 16,19 10,04
Cote d'Ivoire 24,29 28,92 28,89 17,90
South Africa 22,26 27,75 27,22 22,77
Namibia 6,83 16,18 27,70 49,29
group E          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Tunisia 44,54 28,82 17,59 9,05
Mali 29,13 28,20 23,86 18,81
Mauritania 14,09 21,45 27,52 36,94
Angola 12,24 21,53 31,03 35,20
group F          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Ghana 38,31 33,54 19,06 9,09
Cameroon 40,60 29,00 18,86 11,54
Benin 12,94 21,92 36,68 28,46
Guinea-Bissau 8,15 15,54 25,40 50,91


Group D is a strong group. As always in Africa lots of groups where teams have very even probabilities to advance. Senegal's group C seems like a lucky draw. In group A a hard fight for second place after Egypt can be anticipated.


Round of 16
Senegal 92,76
Nigeria 92,53
Tunisia 87,75
Morocco 86,10
Ghana 85,22
Egypt 83,79
Cameroon 83,16
Mali 76,17
Cote d'Ivoire 74,50
Algeria 73,21
South Africa 70,41
Guinea 68,46
Congo DR 67,83
Uganda 59,04
Zimbabwe 58,73
Benin 57,78
Mauritania 53,10
Burundi 52,78
Kenya 51,43
Madagascar 51,31
Angola 50,45
Tanzania 46,10
Guinea-Bissau 40,71
Namibia 36,68



Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Senegal 71,32 [76,89]
Nigeria 66,05 [71,38]
Morocco 62,08 [72,10]
Egypt 61,04 [72,85]
Ghana 53,14 [62,36]
Cameroon 50,60 [60,85]
Tunisia 46,94 [53,49]
Cote d'Ivoire 43,56 [58,47]
South Africa 37,99 [53,96]
Congo DR 37,80 [55,73]
Uganda 34,50 [58,43]
Algeria 33,11 [45,23]
Zimbabwe 28,61 [48,71]
Mali 27,39 [35,96]
Guinea 26,61 [38,87]
Benin 20,40 [35,31]
Burundi 15,48 [29,33]
Kenya 14,11 [27,44]
Madagascar 13,62 [26,54]
Tanzania 12,03 [26,10]
Mauritania 11,91 [22,43]
Angola 11,18 [22,16]
Namibia 10,52 [28,68]
Guinea-Bissau 10,01 [24,59]


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)


Senegal 49,55 [69,48]
Nigeria 45,23 [68,48]
Morocco 39,49 [63,61]
Egypt 32,72 [53,60]
Ghana 28,31 [53,27]
Cameroon 25,10 [49,60]
Tunisia 23,72 [50,53]
Cote d'Ivoire 22,43 [51,49]
South Africa 18,14 [47,75]
Uganda 17,02 [49,33]
Congo DR 16,95 [44,84]
Algeria 12,90 [38,96]
Zimbabwe 11,46 [40,06]
Guinea 10,76 [40,44]
Mali 10,75 [39,25]
Benin 6,64 [32,55]
Burundi 5,31 [34,30]
Madagascar 4,76 [34,95]
Kenya 4,37 [30,97]
Tanzania 3,53 [29,34]
Mauritania 2,87 [24,10]
Angola 2,76 [24,69]
Namibia 2,74 [26,05]
Guinea-Bissau 2,49 [24,88]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)


Senegal 35,30 [71,24]
Morocco 26,06 [65,99]
Nigeria 25,11 [55,52]
Egypt 16,38 [50,06]
Tunisia 13,24 [55,82]
Ghana 12,63 [44,61]
Cote d'Ivoire 11,39 [50,78]
Cameroon 10,94 [43,59]
South Africa 8,32 [45,87]
Uganda 7,49 [44,01]
Congo DR 6,63 [39,12]
Algeria 5,26 [40,78]
Mali 4,34 [40,37]
Zimbabwe 3,57 [31,15]
Guinea 3,27 [30,39]
Benin 1,88 [28,31]
Burundi 1,51 [28,44]
Kenya 1,40 [32,04]
Madagascar 1,35 [28,36]
Tanzania 0,96 [27,20]
Namibia 0,88 [32,12]
Mauritania 0,80 [27,87]
Angola 0,66 [23,91]
Guinea-Bissau 0,63 [25,30]


Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Senegal 22,66 [64,19]
Morocco 15,20 [58,33]
Nigeria 14,30 [56,95]
Egypt 8,20 [50,06]
Tunisia 6,26 [47,28]
Ghana 5,92 [46,87]
Cote d'Ivoire 5,29 [46,44]
Cameroon 4,62 [42,23]
Uganda 3,23 [43,12]
South Africa 2,94 [35,34]
Congo DR 2,30 [34,69]
Algeria 2,10 [39,92]
Mali 1,43 [32,95]
Zimbabwe 1,30 [36,41]
Guinea 1,11 [33,94]
Benin 0,66 [35,11]
Burundi 0,55 [36,42]
Madagascar 0,46 [34,07]
Kenya 0,37 [26,43]
Namibia 0,29 [32,95]
Tanzania 0,25 [26,04]
Guinea-Bissau 0,22 [34,92]
Mauritania 0,20 [25,00]
Angola 0,14 [21,21]


The FIFA-ranking of July shall probably be used to seed the draw for the first round of CAF qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, to be played in September. FIFA has decided to postpone the publication of their July ranking with one week to July 25th to accommodate the complete AFCON 2019.
Last time around the first qualification round consisted of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams.

The average position amongst African teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:

Senegal 1,495
Tunisia 2,543
Nigeria 4,234
Morocco 4,687
Ghana 5,654
Congo DR 6,573
Cameroon 7,266
Egypt 7,774
Burkina Faso 8,998
Cote d'Ivoire 9,999
Mali 10,741
Algeria 12,172
Guinea 12,603
South Africa 12,767
Cape Verde Islands 14,508
Uganda 15,725
Zambia 16,337
Gabon 18,293
Benin 19,077
Congo 19,508
Niger 22,714
Mauritania 23,745
Libya 23,801
Zimbabwe 24,476
Kenya 24,851
Madagascar 25,025
---- seeded in 1st round
Central African Republic 26,617
Namibia 27,842
Sierra Leone 28,587
Mozambique 29,918
Guinea-Bissau 30,199
Angola 30,859
Togo 33,296
Malawi 34,236
Tanzania 34,809
Sudan 35,955
Burundi 36,205
Rwanda 37,534
Lesotho 39,202
Equatorial Guinea 40,202
---- unseeded in 1st round
Eswatini 40,300
Comoros 41,754
Botswana 42,922
Ethiopia 44,000
Liberia 45,000
Mauritius 46,000
Gambia 47,000
South Sudan 48,000
Chad 49,000
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 50,000
Seychelles 51,000
Djibouti 52,000
Eritrea 53,000
Somalia 54,000

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. Hi ed
    how many fifa points if Malaysia win vs timor laste...the first round of Asian world cup qualification

    ReplyDelete
  2. With two wins Malaysia gains 10,4 plus 10,0 = 20,4 pts for a new total of 1007 points in the June ranking.

    ReplyDelete