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Saturday, November 23, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (November 2019)

The match days five and six of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 and MD4.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Syria 90,93 9,03 0,04 0,00 0,00
China PR 9,05 76,65 13,18 1,12 0,00
Philippines 0,02 13,42 76,30 10,23 0,03
Maldives 0,00 0,90 10,46 88,34 0,30
Guam 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,31 99,67
group B        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Australia 93,36 5,76 0,88 0,00 0,00
Kuwait 3,96 51,92 44,09 0,03 0,00
Jordan 2,68 42,30 54,80 0,22 0,00
Nepal 0,00 0,02 0,23 88,04 11,71
Chinese Taipei 0,00 0,00 0,00 11,71 88,29
group C        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Iraq 57,34 33,06 9,55 0,05 0,00
Iran 31,36 32,83 34,58 1,23 0,00
Bahrain 11,28 33,95 53,75 1,02 0,00
Hong Kong 0,02 0,16 2,12 96,99 0,71
Cambodia 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,71 99,29
group D        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Uzbekistan 50,17 44,00 4,50 1,23 0,10
Saudi Arabia 47,92 42,47 7,43 1,76 0,42
Palestine 0,25 5,65 43,67 26,72 23,71
Singapore 1,30 6,05 29,39 44,21 19,05
Yemen 0,36 1,83 15,01 26,08 56,72
group E        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Qatar 78,41 21,59 0,00 0,00 0,00
Oman 21,59 78,19 0,22 0,00 0,00
Afghanistan 0,00 0,21 50,28 39,33 10,18
India 0,00 0,01 45,18 45,29 9,52
Bangladesh 0,00 0,00 4,32 15,38 80,30
group F        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Japan 99,73 0,23 0,04 0,00 0,00
Kyrgyzstan 0,16 56,91 35,85 6,76 0,32
Tajikistan 0,09 36,39 53,14 9,90 0,48
Myanmar 0,02 6,33 10,19 76,02 7,44
Mongolia 0,00 0,14 0,78 7,32 91,76
group G        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Vietnam 56,17 28,18 12,04 3,61 0,00
United Arab Emirates 25,88 27,95 26,54 19,48 0,15
Thailand 11,81 29,75 33,48 24,82 0,14
Malaysia 6,14 14,12 27,94 51,80 0,00
Indonesia 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,29 99,71
group H        1st          2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Korea Republic 83,86 10,35 4,31 1,48 0,00
Lebanon 6,64 36,94 33,78 22,64 0,00
Korea DPR 6,15 32,81 36,51 24,53 0,00
Turkmenistan 3,35 19,90 25,40 51,35 0,00
Sri Lanka 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00



The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations after MD4:

Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)

Syria 99,93 4,49
Japan 99,89 0,02
Australia 99,08 0,96
Oman 94,14 8,44
Korea Republic 90,30 -6,79
Iraq 86,94 33,29
Vietnam 73,32 26,48
China PR 73,15 -16,70
Uzbekistan 68,87 -4,42
Saudi Arabia 66,31 34,59
Iran 59,28 -23,27
Kuwait 49,11 24,50
Jordan 41,07 -4,36
United Arab Emirates 40,10 -18,34
Bahrain 38,93 -8,68
Thailand 27,16 -18,08
Lebanon 23,99 6,82
Korea DPR 20,98 -21,53
Malaysia 11,99 11,12
Turkmenistan 11,19 10,29
Kyrgyzstan 9,03 -11,14
Philippines 7,75 5,04
Tajikistan 4,81 -19,72
Singapore 1,54 1,47
Yemen 0,49 0,09
Palestine 0,31 -13,45
Myanmar 0,16 0,15
Maldives 0,11 0,01
Hong Kong 0,07 0,07
Afghanistan 0,00 -1,34
India 0,00 -0,01
Indonesia 0,00 0
Nepal 0,00 0
Mongolia 0,00 0
Bangladesh 0,00 0
Chinese Taipei 0,00 0
Guam 0,00 0
Cambodia 0,00 0
Qatar 0,00 0
Sri Lanka 0,00 0


AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12

Japan 99,87 0,03
Syria 99,69 6,51
Qatar 99,43 3,96
Australia 99,01 1,56
Oman 90,06 11,57
Korea Republic 87,81 -8,44
Iraq 82,53 33,71
Vietnam 67,23 25,17
China PR 65,39 -20,28
Uzbekistan 62,23 -8,11
Saudi Arabia 60,04 32,05
Iran 55,22 -24,69
Kuwait 42,98 24,47
Jordan 37,30 -0,53
United Arab Emirates 34,86 -18,62
Bahrain 33,57 -9,14
Thailand 20,91 -18,70
Lebanon 15,51 3,15
Korea DPR 13,32 -20,95
Malaysia 9,39 8,79
Turkmenistan 7,44 7,03
Philippines 5,66 3,65
Kyrgyzstan 5,26 -7,51
Tajikistan 3,18 -13,99
Singapore 1,34 1,27
Yemen 0,38 -0,01
Palestine 0,26 -11,03
Myanmar 0,07 0,06
Maldives 0,04 -0,02
Hong Kong 0,02 0,02
Afghanistan 0,00 -0,98
India 0,00 0
Indonesia 0,00 0
Mongolia 0,00 0
Nepal 0,00 0
Bangladesh 0,00 0
Chinese Taipei 0,00 0
Guam 0,00 0
Cambodia 0,00 0
Sri Lanka 0,00 0


ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)

Tajikistan 94,14 11,48
Kyrgyzstan 93,46 6,33
Turkmenistan 92,28 3,71
Philippines 92,02 -2,73
Malaysia 90,36 25,02
Korea DPR 86,50 20,77
Lebanon 84,42 -3,16
Thailand 78,73 18,49
Palestine 69,78 -15,51
Singapore 68,66 35,60
Bahrain 66,40 9,15
United Arab Emirates 63,87 17,40
Jordan 62,70 0,53
Afghanistan 58,66 -10,35
Kuwait 57,02 -24,22
India 55,96 -16,65
Myanmar 50,84 30,65
Maldives 50,67 -13,70
Iran 44,46 24,37
Saudi Arabia 39,46 -31,71
Uzbekistan 37,65 8,06
Yemen 36,90 -6,51
China PR 34,47 20,14
Vietnam 32,77 -25,04
Hong Kong 32,58 5,54
Iraq 17,47 -33,71
Korea Republic 12,19 8,44
Oman 9,94 -11,56
Nepal 8,51 -13,81
Bangladesh 5,54 0,77
Mongolia 3,25 -0,03
Australia 0,99 -1,56
Qatar 0,57 -3,96
Chinese Taipei 0,34 -0,82
Syria 0,31 -6,51
Indonesia 0,23 -4,57
Guam 0,19 -0,01
Japan 0,13 -0,03
Cambodia 0,05 -0,15
Sri Lanka 0,00 -0,01


Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40


Sri Lanka 100,00 0,01
Cambodia 99,95 0,15
Guam 99,81 0,01
Indonesia 99,77 4,57
Chinese Taipei 99,66 0,82
Mongolia 96,75 0,03
Bangladesh 94,46 -0,77
Nepal 91,49 13,81
Hong Kong 67,40 -5,56
Yemen 62,72 6,52
Maldives 49,29 13,72
Myanmar 49,09 -30,71
India 44,04 16,65
Afghanistan 41,34 11,33
Singapore 30,00 -36,87
Palestine 29,96 26,54
Tajikistan 2,68 2,51
Philippines 2,32 -0,92
Kyrgyzstan 1,28 1,18
United Arab Emirates 1,27 1,22
Saudi Arabia 0,50 -0,34
Thailand 0,36 0,21
Iran 0,32 0,32
Turkmenistan 0,28 -10,74
Malaysia 0,25 -33,81
Korea DPR 0,18 0,18
China PR 0,14 0,14
Uzbekistan 0,12 0,05
Lebanon 0,07 0,01
Bahrain 0,03 -0,01
Kuwait 0,00 -0,25
Vietnam 0,00 -0,13
Oman 0,00 -0,01
Iraq 0,00 0
Jordan 0,00 0
Syria 0,00 0
Qatar 0,00 0
Australia 0,00 0
Korea Republic 0,00 0
Japan 0,00 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

5 comments:

  1. Thanks a lot Ed for this great post.
    I appreciate to update us also for the new probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up, after MD6 matches. Would like to feel warm regarding my country/jordan probabilities to qualify :-), Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sorry Tarek, forgot to include this overview.

    Probabiity (in %) to qualify as one of the four best group runners-up per group:
    group E 89,49
    group B 79,29
    group C 71,34
    group A 70,78
    group G 32,39
    group D 24,25
    group H 24,08
    group F 8,38

    Still looking ok for Jordan !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking ok for my country group runner up probabilities, but hope that jordan will be the runner up!. Thanks again Ed, appreciated.

      Delete
  3. Thanks Ed, there are clearly some key matchups ahead in March for those outside the current AFC top 6

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ed - with Syria, Australia and Japan all on maximum points after Match Day 6 what are the %s for each of these teams that they will have locked in a WCQ Stage 3 berth with 2 games to spare following Match Day 8 on 31 March 2020 ?

    ReplyDelete