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Sunday, June 26, 2022

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (June 2022)

The June window saw 4 match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. The remaining two match days will be played in the September window.

There were in league A some quite surprising results: notably France and England -although not playing with obviously weakened teams- performed well below par. On the other hand Hungary, Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands performed much better than expected.

In league B the effect of Russia's suspension on the way the overall UNL ranking will be calculated is not published by UEFA. I assume the teams in league B finishing on positions one to three in each group are sorted in the UNL ranking on group results without the matches against the group number four taken into account. That way the results of the teams in group B-2 are comparable with the other teams in league B.


This overall UNL-ranking is used to seed the draw on October 9th 2022 for the qualifying stage of EURO 2024, which will run from March to November 2023 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two qualify for EURO 2024. Germany as host will not participate in this qualification. 


After that qualifying phase 12 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2024, will have another chance to gain one of the last 3 qualifying berths for EURO 2024 via play-offs, to be played in March 2024. 

The 12 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the UNL-rankings per league. So there is some importance in getting good results in the UNL 2022 group stage.


There is also promotion/relegation between leagues to compose the leagues for the next UNL edition: each group-winner in leagues B-D is promoted, each group-last in leagues A-B is relegated. Two play-outs between the 4 group numbers 4 in league C are played in March 2024 to determine which two teams relegate to league D.


Here are the probabilities (in %) after the matches in the June window -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Denmark

64,67

34,95

0,38

0,00

Croatia

34,74

48,71

13,91

2,64

France

0,00

2,64

56,97

40,39

Austria

0,59

13,70

28,74

56,97

group A-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Spain

60,48

34,43

5,09

0,00

Portugal

38,40

52,21

9,33

0,06

Czech Republic

0,26

8,17

44,85

46,72

Switzerland

0,86

5,19

40,73

53,22

group A-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Germany

51,63

32,75

13,75

1,87

Hungary

28,84

30,07

38,34

2,75

Italy

19,53

31,04

32,80

16,63

England

0,00

6,14

15,11

78,75

group A-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Netherlands

85,30

12,76

1,94

0,00

Belgium

14,70

81,29

4,01

0,00

Poland

0,00

3,87

71,41

24,72

Wales

0,00

2,08

22,64

75,28

group B-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Ukraine

76,99

21,63

1,38

0,00

Scotland

22,30

48,99

28,25

0,46

Republic of Ireland

0,71

28,48

58,51

12,30

Armenia

0,00

0,90

11,86

87,24

group B-2

1st

2nd

3rd

Israel

80,42

19,58

0,00

Albania

11,54

44,99

43,47

Iceland

8,04

35,43

56,53

group B-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Bosnia-Herzegovina

70,89

24,73

4,38

0,00

Montenegro

24,71

39,66

34,32

1,31

Finland

4,00

30,94

42,86

22,20

Romania

0,40

4,67

18,44

76,49

group B-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Norway

80,79

19,21

0,00

0,00

Serbia

19,21

69,59

11,20

0,00

Sweden

0,00

10,83

72,40

16,77

Slovenia

0,00

0,37

16,40

83,23

group C-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Turkey

99,67

0,33

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,33

98,32

1,35

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

1,35

86,65

12,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

12,00

88,00

group C-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Greece

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kosovo

0,00

96,16

3,48

0,36

Northern Ireland

0,00

2,24

60,66

37,10

Cyprus

0,00

1,60

35,86

62,54

group C-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Kazakhstan

83,92

16,08

0,00

0,00

Slovakia

15,95

80,40

3,26

0,39

Azerbaijan

0,13

3,35

85,71

10,81

Belarus

0,00

0,17

11,03

88,80

group C-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Georgia

96,46

3,54

0,00

0,00

North Macedonia

3,54

86,29

10,17

0,00

Bulgaria

0,00

10,17

87,82

2,01

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

2,01

97,99

group D-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Latvia

97,94

2,06

0,00

0,00

Moldova

2,06

95,62

2,32

0,00

Andorra

0,00

2,32

88,16

9,52

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

9,52

90,48

group D-2

1st

2nd

3rd

Estonia

92,09

7,91

0,00

Malta

7,91

92,09

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

100,00



The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A. In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:


Netherlands

85,30

62,37

Denmark

64,67

46,67

Spain

60,48

14,39

Germany

51,63

26,77

Portugal

38,40

8,15

Croatia

34,74

25,89

Hungary

28,84

27,19

Italy

19,53

-11,12

Belgium

14,70

-47,63

Switzerland

0,86

-16,28

Austria

0,59

-1,29

Czech Republic

0,26

-6,26

France

0,00

-71,27

England

0,00

-42,84

Wales

0,00

-8,82

Poland

0,00

-5,92




To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner. In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:


Denmark

45,73

[70,71]

33,78

Germany

36,23

[70,17]

17,86

Netherlands

29,76

[34,89]

25,69

Spain

28,06

[46,40]

15,63

Croatia

16,53

[47,58]

12,00

Portugal

13,97

[36,38]

7,20

Italy

12,93

[66,21]

-10,47

Hungary

8,60

[29,82]

8,08

Belgium

7,74

[52,65]

-10,53

Austria

0,24

[40,68]

-0,33

Switzerland

0,15

[17,44]

-3,19

Czech Republic

0,06

[23,08]

-0,90

France

0,00

[0,00]

-58,86

England

0,00

[0,00]

-34,21

Wales

0,00

[0,00]

-1,28

Poland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,47



To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final.  In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:


Germany

27,87

[76,93]

16,72

Spain

23,24

[82,82]

14,08

Portugal

11,05

[79,10]

6,49

Denmark

10,16

[22,22]

7,94

Italy

9,56

[73,94]

-6,18

Netherlands

8,53

[28,66]

7,78

Hungary

4,11

[47,79]

3,95

Belgium

2,66

[34,37]

-3,16

Croatia

2,63

[15,91]

2,01

Switzerland

0,11

[73,33]

-1,87

Czech Republic

0,05

[83,33]

-0,36

Austria

0,03

[12,50]

0,01

England

0,00

[0,00]

-24,78

France

0,00

[0,00]

-22,42

Wales

0,00

[0,00]

-0,16

Poland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,05



Each simulation results in an overall UNL-ranking. Here is the resulting overall UNL-ranking with teams ordered by ascending average position (with Germany excluded). This ranking is used to seed the draw for the EURO 2024 qualification groups. The probabilities for a team to end in each pot are also given:


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Denmark

100,00

0

0

0

0

0

Spain

99,99

0,01

0

0

0

0

Netherlands

100,00

0

0

0

0

0

Portugal

99,62

0,38

0

0

0

0

Croatia

95,76

4,24

0

0

0

0

Belgium

99,75

0,25

0

0

0

0

Hungary

96,58

3,42

0

0

0

0

Italy

81,38

18,62

0

0

0

0

France

44,48

55,52

0

0

0

0

Poland

41,66

58,34

0

0

0

0

--------------------------

Austria

39,53

60,47

0

0

0

0

Czech Republic

43,84

56,16

0

0

0

0

Switzerland

33,94

66,06

0

0

0

0

England

17,50

82,50

0

0

0

0

Wales

5,97

94,03

0

0

0

0

Norway

0

95,73

4,27

0

0

0

Ukraine

0

81,23

18,77

0

0

0

Israel

0

82,70

17,30

0

0

0

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

75,22

24,78

0

0

0

Serbia

0

40,39

59,61

0

0

0

--------------------------

Scotland

0

29,34

70,66

0

0

0

Montenegro

0

33,30

66,70

0

0

0

Albania

0

13,35

86,65

0

0

0

Iceland

0

12,36

87,64

0

0

0

Republic of Ireland

0

14,95

85,05

0

0

0

Finland

0

19,45

80,55

0

0

0

Sweden

0

0

100,00

0

0

0

Slovenia

0

0,03

99,97

0

0

0

Romania

0

1,67

98,33

0

0

0

Armenia

0

0,28

99,72

0

0

0

--------------------------

Russia

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Turkey

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Greece

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Georgia

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Kazakhstan

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Slovakia

0

0

0

98,90

1,10

0

North Macedonia

0

0

0

97,86

2,14

0

Luxembourg

0

0

0

99,44

0,56

0

Kosovo

0

0

0

96,94

3,06

0

Bulgaria

0

0

0

45,21

54,79

0

--------------------------

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

30,32

69,68

0

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

17,02

82,98

0

Northern Ireland

0

0

0

9,15

90,85

0

Cyprus

0

0

0

2,12

97,88

0

Belarus

0

0

0

2,80

97,20

0

Lithuania

0

0

0

0,20

99,80

0

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0,04

99,96

0

Latvia

0

0

0

0

99,47

0,53

Estonia

0

0

0

0

99,92

0,08

Malta

0

0

0

0

92,62

7,38

--------------------------

Moldova

0

0

0

0

7,99

92,01

Andorra

0

0

0

0

0

100,00

San Marino

0

0

0

0

0

100,00

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

0

100,00



France, Poland, Austria and Czech Republic have an average ranking position over all simulations that lies very close together. Above you see the mathematical order and resulting pots. In reality one goal more scored or less conceded could decide the real order between these teams and which team will eventually end in pot 1 and which team will end in pot 2.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. Hi! I know it's early days but I looove Hungary :) and I'd like to know how many points they'd get if they drew with ze Germans and beat Italia. Qué piensas? Thank you! BR, Magyar dude

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. (In the FIFA rankings I mean.)

      Delete
    2. GER-HUN: W: 5,11/-5,11 D: -2,39/2,39 L: -9,89/9,89
      HUN-ITA: W: 10,73/-10,73 D: 3,23/-3,23 L: -4,27/4,27

      Delete
  2. Good day! Any update? Can i ask if you update the men’s ranking please update too women’s ranking please ❤️ Thank you very much

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think some of the swings in the NL finals and winner percentages look quite weird. Denmark with a 70.71% chance to qualify for the final if they reach the Final Four, and then only with a 22.22% chance to win the final if they make it there. Can't get that to make sense.

    ReplyDelete