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Saturday, February 5, 2022

World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022)

The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:

  • for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
  • for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
  • for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
  • AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

The simulations include all scheduled remaining World Cup qualifiers (including the AFC number 5 PO and the IPO's in June 2022), the remainder of the AFCON 2022 and all currently scheduled friendlies.


UEFA


The ten group winners are Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England and Germany. The play-offs were drawn in November. All matches will be one-off affairs with the semi finals played on March 24th and the finals on March 29th:


Path A:

Scotland - Ukraine

Wales - Austria

The winner of Wales/Austria plays the path A final at home.


Path B:

Russia - Poland

Sweden - Czech Republic

The winner of Russia/Poland plays the path B final at home.


Path C:

Italy - North Macedonia

Portugal - Turkey

The winner of Portugal/Turkey plays the path C final at home.


First the probability to win a play-off semi-final. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).


team

win SF

diff

Italy

97,78

0,21

Portugal

92,58

-0,07

Wales

85,25

-0,05

Russia

75,82

-0,54

Sweden

75,62

0,08

Scotland

68,10

0,04

Ukraine

31,90

-0,04

Czech Republic

24,38

-0,08

Poland

24,18

0,54

Austria

14,75

0,05

Turkey

7,42

0,07

North Macedonia

2,22

-0,21


The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).


team

win F

diff

Wales

70,40

[82,58]

0,34

Portugal

66,36

[71,68]

-0,26

Russia

51,80

[68,32]

0,31

Italy

31,43

[32,14]

0,01

Sweden

20,90

[27,64]

-0,97

Poland

17,80

[73,61]

0,37

Austria

11,08

[75,12]

-0,13

Scotland

10,59

[15,55]

-0,54

Czech Republic

9,50

[38,97]

0,29

Ukraine

7,93

[24,86]

0,33

Turkey

2,05

[27,63]

0,26

North Macedonia

0,16

[7,21]

-0,01


Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).


team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Germany

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Belgium

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

France

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

England

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Netherlands

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Spain

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Croatia

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Switzerland

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Serbia

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Wales

0,00

70,40

70,40

0,34

Portugal

0,00

66,36

66,36

-0,26

Russia

0,00

51,80

51,80

0,31

Italy

0,00

31,43

31,43

0,01

Sweden

0,00

20,90

20,90

-0,97

Poland

0,00

17,80

17,80

0,37

Austria

0,00

11,08

11,08

-0,13

Scotland

0,00

10,59

10,59

-0,54

Czech Republic

0,00

9,50

9,50

0,29

Ukraine

0,00

7,93

7,93

0,33

Turkey

0,00

2,05

2,05

0,26

North Macedonia

0,00

0,16

0,16

-0,01



CAF


The third and final qualification round consists of these 5 home-and-away play-offs:


Egypt - Senegal: juicy repeat of the AFCON-final tomorrow;

Cameroon - Algeria: can Algeria recover from a disastrous group stage, Cameroon goes for third place today;

Ghana - Nigeria: Ghana could not get out of the group, Nigeria eliminated in the round of 16;

Congo DR - Morocco: Congo DR could not get out of the group, Morocco eliminated in the quarter finals;

Mali - Tunisia: Mali eliminated in the round of 16, Tunisia in the quarter finals.


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage):


team

qualify

diff Q

Morocco

69,91

-0,69

Mali

64,19

25,74

Nigeria

57,40

2,83

Egypt

54,36

11,12

Cameroon

50,99

12,34

Algeria

49,01

-24,86

Senegal

45,64

-17,48

Ghana

42,60

5,97

Tunisia

35,81

-18,44

Congo DR

30,09

3,47



OFC


The 8 participating Oceania teams play in two groups of four. The top 2 of each group goes to a one-off semi final and the winners play the one-off final to determine the OFC IPO-participant. They will play in June against the CONCACAF number 4 for a berth in Qatar.


First the groups:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tahiti

37,60

32,85

28,77

0,78

Vanuatu

33,51

33,14

32,05

1,30

Solomon Islands

28,86

33,74

36,30

1,10

Cook Islands

0,03

0,27

2,88

96,82

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

New Zealand

76,29

16,85

5,35

1,51

New Caledonia

12,27

36,91

29,68

21,14

Fiji

7,86

28,31

34,61

29,22

Papua New Guinea

3,58

17,93

30,36

48,13


The probability to qualify for the semi final and to win it. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a semi final:


team

semi final

win

New Zealand

93,14

86,40

[92,76]

New Caledonia

49,18

35,44

[72,06]

Fiji

36,17

24,67

[68,21]

Tahiti

70,45

17,64

[25,04]

Vanuatu

66,65

14,35

[21,53]

Solomon Islands

62,60

12,21

[19,50]

Papua New Guinea

21,51

9,29

[43,19]

Cook Islands

0,30

0,00

[00,00]


The probability to win the final and qualify for the IPO:


team

win

New Zealand

76,31

New Caledonia

8,89

Fiji

4,73

Tahiti

3,47

Vanuatu

2,96

Solomon Islands

2,17

Papua New Guinea

1,47

Cook Islands

0,00



CONMEBOL


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify as group number 5 for the IPO against Asia's number 5 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD14):


team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Argentina

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Ecuador

100,00

6,97

0,00

-6,31

Uruguay

60,90

35,52

22,79

-3,80

Peru

36,50

10,37

44,42

22,45

Chile

1,34

-4,30

10,91

-2,14

Colombia

1,26

-46,73

21,88

-4,77

Bolivia

0,00

-1,61

0,00

-4,11

Paraguay

0,00

-0,22

0,00

-1,32

Venezuela

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



CONCACAF


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify as group number 4 for the IPO against the OFC number 1 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD8):


team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Canada

99,99

10,50

0,01

-8,98

Mexico

99,34

6,75

0,63

-5,87

USA

94,83

1,16

4,20

-1,71

Panama

3,96

-17,54

56,13

-0,84

Costa Rica

1,88

0,18

38,97

27,26

El Salvador

0,00

0,00

0,06

-0,23

Jamaica

0,00

-1,05

0,00

-9,54

Honduras

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,09



AFC


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

72,16

27,84

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Korea Republic

27,84

72,16

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

United Arab Emirates

0,00

0,00

71,86

23,91

4,23

0,00

Iraq

0,00

0,00

25,36

34,70

29,74

10,20

Lebanon

0,00

0,00

2,78

32,30

55,74

9,18

Syria

0,00

0,00

0,00

9,09

10,29

80,62

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Japan

51,12

36,76

12,12

0,00

0,00

0,00

Saudi Arabia

41,54

49,25

9,21

0,00

0,00

0,00

Australia

7,34

13,99

78,67

0,00

0,00

0,00

Oman

0,00

0,00

0,00

94,03

5,78

0,19

China PR

0,00

0,00

0,00

5,74

84,93

9,33

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,23

9,29

90,48


To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):


team

qualify

diff Q

win

diff win

Australia

78,67

27,35

65,23

[82,92]

31,13

United Arab Emirates

71,86

33,42

11,94

[16,62]

-3,77

Iraq

25,36

-6,29

6,38

[25,16]

-9,75

Japan

12,12

-10,17

10,39

[85,73]

-4,87

Saudi Arabia

9,21

-9,68

5,77

[62,65]

-1,56

Lebanon

2,78

-18,78

0,29

[10,43]

-5,28

Syria

0,00

-8,13

0,00

[00,00]

-2,97

Oman

0,00

-7,09

0,00

[00,00]

-2,63

China PR

0,00

-0,41

0,00

[00,00]

-0,15

Korea Republic

0,00

-0,22

0,00

[00,00]

-0,15

Iran

0,00

0,00

0,00

[00,00]

0,00

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,00

[00,00]

0,00


To qualify for the World Cup, composed of the chance to qualify as number one or two in the group (column Nr1-2) or via the route via the AFC number 5 play-off plus IPO against the CONMEBOL number 5 (column IPO). In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):


team

Qtot

Nr1-2

IPO

diff Q

Iran

100,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

Korea Republic

100,00

100,00

0,00

0,20

Saudi Arabia

91,48

90,79

0,69

10,97

Japan

90,22

87,88

2,34

9,34

Australia

36,48

21,33

15,15

-14,10

United Arab Emirates

1,17

0,00

1,17

-0,22

Iraq

0,82

0,00

0,82

-0,97

Lebanon

0,02

0,00

0,02

-0,45

Oman

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,52

Syria

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,21

China PR

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



Interconfederational play-offs


To qualify for an IPO and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off:


team

IPO

Win IPO

Panama

56,13

44,02

[78,43]

Peru

44,42

35,34

[79,56]

Costa Rica

38,97

32,17

[82,55]

Uruguay

22,79

18,25

[80,08]

Colombia

21,88

18,01

[82,31]

New Zealand

76,31

17,83

[23,37]

Australia

65,23

15,15

[23,23]

Chile

10,91

8,21

[75,25]

USA

4,20

3,76

[89,52]

Japan

10,39

2,34

[22,52]

United Arab Emirates

11,94

1,17

[9,80]

Iraq

6,38

0,82

[12,85]

Saudi Arabia

5,77

0,69

[11,96]

New Caledonia

8,89

0,65

[7,31]

Mexico

0,63

0,61

[96,83]

Fiji

4,73

0,29

[6,13]

Tahiti

3,47

0,29

[8,36]

Solomon Islands

2,17

0,12

[5,53]

Vanuatu

2,96

0,11

[3,72]

Papua New Guinea

1,47

0,09

[6,12]

El Salvador

0,06

0,05

[83,33]

Lebanon

0,29

0,02

[6,90]

Canada

0,01

0,01

[100,00]

Argentina

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Bolivia

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Brazil

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

China PR

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Cook Islands

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Ecuador

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Honduras

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Iran

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Jamaica

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Korea Republic

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Oman

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Paraguay

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Syria

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Venezuela

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

[0,00]



Pots for the final draw


These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (including IPO's) is given:


team

WC

pot1

pot2

pot3

pot4

Qatar

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Brazil

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Belgium

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

France

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

England

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Spain

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Argentina

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Portugal

66,36

64,80

1,56

0

0

----------------------------

Mexico

99,95

2,11

97,54

0,30

0

Netherlands

100,00

0,49

99,51

0

0

Denmark

100,00

0,27

99,73

0

0

Germany

100,00

0,05

99,95

0

0

Switzerland

100,00

0

100,00

0

0

Croatia

100,00

0

98,90

1,10

0

USA

98,59

0,85

96,06

1,68

0

Uruguay

79,15

0

70,61

8,54

0

----------------------------

Iran

100,00

0

1,49

98,49

0,02

Serbia

100,00

0

0

99,02

0,98

Italy

31,43

31,43

0

0

0

Korea Republic

100,00

0

0

68,34

31,66

Japan

90,22

0

0,06

89,64

0,52

Canada

100,00

0

0

29,51

70,49

Ecuador

100,00

0

0

0,01

99,99

Wales

70,40

0

7,87

62,53

0

----------------------------

Peru

71,84

0

0,92

70,87

0,05

Morocco

69,91

0

0,01

69,83

0,07

Saudi Arabia

91,48

0

0

0

91,48

Senegal

45,64

0

14,94

30,70

0

Nigeria

57,40

0

0

33,36

24,04

Mali

64,19

0

0

0

64,19

Egypt

54,36

0

0

23,30

31,06

Russia

51,80

0

0

21,48

30,32

Cameroon

50,99

0

0

1,21

49,78

Algeria

49,01

0

0

0,01

49,00

Panama

47,98

0

0

0

47,98

Ghana

42,60

0

0

0

42,60

Australia

36,48

0

0

3,40

33,08

Tunisia

35,81

0

0

1,50

34,31

Costa Rica

34,05

0

0

0,06

33,99

Sweden

20,90

0

5,79

15,11

0

Congo DR

30,09

0

0

0

30,09

Colombia

19,27

0

5,00

14,27

0

Poland

17,80

0

0

17,80

0

New Zealand

17,83

0

0

0

17,83

Austria

11,08

0

0

10,77

0,31

Chile

9,55

0

0,06

9,49

0

Czech Republic

9,50

0

0

8,76

0,74

Scotland

10,59

0

0

0,54

10,05

Ukraine

7,93

0

0

7,93

0

Turkey

2,05

0

0

0,45

1,60

United Arab Emirates

1,17

0

0

0

1,17

Iraq

0,82

0

0

0

0,82

New Caledonia

0,65

0

0

0

0,65

Fiji

0,29

0

0

0

0,29

Tahiti

0,29

0

0

0

0,29

North Macedonia

0,16

0

0

0

0,16

Solomon Islands

0,12

0

0

0

0,12

Vanuatu

0,11

0

0

0

0,11

Papua New Guinea

0,09

0

0

0

0,09

El Salvador

0,05

0

0

0

0,05

Lebanon

0,02

0

0

0

0,02

Bolivia

0,00

0

0

0

0

China PR

0,00

0

0

0

0

Cook Islands

0,00

0

0

0

0

Honduras

0,00

0

0

0

0

Jamaica

0,00

0

0

0

0

Oman

0,00

0

0

0

0

Paraguay

0,00

0

0

0

0

Syria

0,00

0

0

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

26 comments:

  1. Do we know how the intercontinental playoffs are going to be seeded? I wouldn't be surprised if they both just get placed in Pot 4, which could set up a very interesting "Group of Death" if Uruguay/Colombia ends up qualifying through there.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No, the draw procedures are not yet published. I hope they seed each IPO-winner according to the highest rank of all participants in each IPO.
    They want to use the FIFA ranking as seeding ranking ? OK, then apply it wherever possible...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Having the draw before the IPO's makes things very awkward though, in terms of separating confederations.
      Hypothetically, let's say one play-off is Peru vs Australia, then the winner of the play-off wouldn't be able to be placed in a group with another Conmebol or AFC member, and that could in theory be impossible. I think FIFA will need to come up with some either/or scenarios for the draw to allow for this. Or even postpone the draw until after the play-offs.

      Delete
    2. The other play-off of course is not such a challenge, given that OFC only have a maximum of 1 finalist, so it's simply a case of keeping that winner away from the other 3 Concacaf teams in the group stage.

      Delete
    3. Assuming CONMEBOL/AFC winner in Pot 4, you're likely to have 3 CONMEBOL teams in Pots 1-3 and 4 Asian teams, so you should have one spot available for them no matter what.

      Delete
    4. Hmm, I'm not sure if that's the case. If Uruguay & Ecuador take the automatic spots to join Brazil & Argentina, and Japan & Saudi join S Korea, Iran & Qatar, wouldn't they be in the following Pots?
      Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Argentina
      Pot 2: Uruguay
      Pot 3: Ecuador, Iran, Korea, Japan
      Pot 4: Saudi & perhaps the winner of Peru/Australia

      I'm guessing FIFA would have to arrange the draw so that at least one group is free of CONMEBOL/AFC teams before getting to Pot 4 and giving that spot to the play-off winner.
      FIFA are of course very "creative" with these draws, so it shouldn't be beyond them :-)

      Delete
    5. I guess this is possible, though it's much more likely that Ecuador are going to be in Pot 4 regardless.

      Another option is that they draw pot 4 before pot 3. A minor change that makes a lot of stuff easier.

      And of course, there remains the possibility that they only seed Qatar+top 7, and everything else is just split by continent.

      Delete
  3. Hi Ed, how many of the european friendlies in March have you included in your simulations in "Pots for the final draw"?

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  4. Everything that was mentioned in my two basic sources on February 5th. I can't exactly say which because I don't keep track of the inclusion date, but I think the friendlies against African opposition of France and Belgium miss. The rest is probably already included.

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  5. Why Egypt has a higher chance to qualify against Senegal despite the ranking difference that favor Senegal?
    A week ago, your simulations expected a Senegal win by PSO in the CAF cup of nations final.

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  6. Yeah, that prediction was not too shabby :)

    Egypt's 55-45 chance to qualify is a bit of a surprise for me also. I think it's caused by the fact that it's a double header with Egypt first playing at home. The elo-difference between the two is small (38 points at the moment in favor of Senegal) so Egypt's home win expectancy is 59%, that's a deterministic draw but very close to a win (which starts at 60,9%).
    Because elo points are adapted after each match (in the simulation as in the real elo rating) the win expectancy for the second match in Dakar is only some 62% so also very close to a draw. In the simulations that adds up to a slightly bigger chance for Egypt to qualify for Qatar over the two matches.

    I would have expected very balanced (very close to 50-50) probabilities for both teams in this play-off qualifier.

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    1. That's interesting Ed, in my own CAF model I have senegal/egypt at 55/45 but in favor of Senegal. Even with a win margin of 3+, not nearly enough elo rating ought to be exchanged to not give Senegal enough of an edge to outscore Egypt in aggregate with round 2

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  7. Yeah Alex, as I said I'd expect very even chances or Senegal with a slight advantage. The simulations contain indeed Monte Carlo based simulations of match results.
    Plus, at calculation time the AFCON-final still had to be played also. This adds extra uncertainty to the range of elo-ratings with which the two teams would enter the double header itself.

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    1. Ah having the calculation before the afcon final may explain it

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  8. Are all OFC WC Qualifiers from March 17 to March 30 classified as I = 25 despite of earlier group stage matches are playing outside IMW ?

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  9. The inside/outside IMW distinction is only relevant for the I-factor of friendlies (resp. 10 or 5).
    These OFC-matches are all indeed WC-qualifiers with I=25.

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  10. I’d expect that FIFA will allocate the South American/ Asian play off winner based on the higher ranking of the two teams which is expected to be pot3 based on Peru ranking.
    Then in Pot 1: Qatar - Brazil - Argentina
    Pot 2: Uruguay - Ecuador
    Pot 3: Iran - South Korea - Asia/South America
    Pot 4: Saudi Arabia - Japan
    Pot 1 will be drawn : let’s say A Qatar -B Brazil - C Argentina
    Pot 2 will be drawn : Uruguay can’t be in ( B-C) let’s say D, Ecuador can’t be in ( B-C-D) so let’s assume E
    Pot 3 will be drawn: playoff winner can not be in ( A/B/C/D/E) so let’s say it’ll be F, Iran can’t be in ( A or F) so let’s assume Iran become in G, South Korea can’t be in (A or F or G) so let’s assume worst case that South Korea takes H
    Pot 4 draw: Saudi Arabia can’t be in ( A-F-G-H) so Saudi can be in (B-C-E or D) , let’s say Saudi falls in B then Japan can be in (C-E-D) so let’s say Japan falls in C
    The sequence of the draw should allocate firstly all Asian and South American teams by drawing them starting Pot 1 up to Pot 4.
    Secondly : procedures should be done by allocating USA and Mexico and Canada in three different groups , winner of concacaf and Oceania playoff shall be in Pot 4 ( based on the ranking of the higher team) and consequently drawn in a group away from Usa, Mexico and CaƱada groups.
    Afterwards, all other teams can be drawn pot by pot.
    Based on these procedures: the draw is well organized and extremely fair ( for example : if Australia beat Peru , so Australia deserves to be in Pot 3) .
    FIFA guys if you need to hire me please comment on this post ;)

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  11. with now Path A in UEFA not known, given 3 unknown teams I suspect an easy way to do it would be Pot 1, Pot 2 and then the rest are allocated by confederation. Visually the draw should be easy for viewers to follow at home.

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  12. It's official! Intercontinental playoffs and the final UEFA team will all be placed in pot 4! Group of death incoming!

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  13. Hi Ed, hopefully you can find the time to do a midway simulation.... - Sunday perhaps?

    Youve done it before.... :-)

    Two Danish victories and a WC ticket for North Macedonia places Denmark in pot 1)

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  14. I shall see if I can find the time.

    But what if Denmark loses Saturday ? :)

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