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Friday, January 6, 2017

2019 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding

Since I've been asked, here's the seeding for the 26 January draw.

The coefficient will be made up of:

- 2011-13 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
– 2013-15 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
– 2015-17 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition: group stage and play-offs) - 40%


Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, Spain, England, Denmark, France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Serbia
Pot 2: Slovakia, Israel, Netherlands, Austria, Croatia, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Slovenia
Pot 3: Ukraine, Norway, Russia, Turkey, Romania, Iceland, Greece, Montenegro, Finland
Pot 4: Wales, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Moldova, Albania
Pot 5: Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Latvia, Estonia
Pot 6: Malta, Luxembourg, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands, San Marino, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, Kosovo

 1 Germany                39036
 2 Portugal               38379
 3 England                36621
 4 Spain                  36536
 5 Denmark                35590
 6 France                 34262
 7 Sweden                 34259
 8 Czech Republic         33690
 9 Serbia                 31060
-------------------------------
10 Slovakia               31057
11 Israel                 30787
12 Netherlands            29817
13 Austria                29406
14 Croatia                28240
15 Belgium                28237
16 Poland                 28102
17 Switzerland            27882
18 Slovenia               27372
-------------------------------
19 Ukraine                27372
20 Norway                 26830
21 Russia                 26414
22 Turkey                 25926
23 Romania                25859
24 Iceland                25679
25 Greece                 25522
26 Montenegro             24791
27 Finland                24581
-------------------------------
28 Wales                  23684
29 Bulgaria               23309
30 FYR Macedonia          23284
31 Georgia                22401
32 Hungary                22349
33 Republic of Ireland    22004
34 Scotland               21784
35 Moldova                20696
36 Albania                18584
-------------------------------
37 Lithuania              18411
38 Azerbaijan             18331
39 Armenia                18126
40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 18056
41 Belarus                17741
42 Kazakhstan             16826
43 Cyprus                 16636
44 Latvia                 16516
45 Estonia                14498
-------------------------------
46 Malta                  14331
47 Luxembourg             12878
48 Northern Ireland       12611
49 Faroe Islands          12113
50 San Marino             10740
51 Andorra                10045
52 Liechtenstein           8058
53 Gibraltar                  0
53 Kosovo                     0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

11 comments:

  1. Hey Edgar, could you please take a closer look at Spain, the Netherlands and Norway ?
    I have:
    for ESP (47070 + 2*35053 + 2*32753)/5 = 36536
    for NED (37752 + 2*27853 + 2*27814)/5 = 29817
    for NOR (32145 + 2*20751 + 2*30251)/5 = 26830

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right Ed - had a couple of mistakes in the 2017 preliminaries.

      Thank you!

      Delete
  2. How tie-break between Slovenia and Ukraine has been done?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From the regulations:

      If two or more associations have the same reference period coefficient, the following criteria are applied to the most recent half cycle, in the order given, to separate them:
      a. coefficient;
      b. average goal difference;
      c. average number of goals scored;
      d. average number of away goals scored;
      e. average disciplinary points based only on yellow and red cards received (red
      card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one
      match = 3 points);
      f. drawing of lots.

      In the qualifying competition for EURO 2017 the coefficients were: SVN - 25352 and UKR - 24101.

      Delete
  3. Ed, FIFA indicated today that the draw for 2018 WC will be in December 1st, probably using November ranking. With that, and the games to be played, who would be the Seeds?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gabriel, did they announce that they will use November ranking or is that your assumption?

      It would make sense because African qualifiers finish in November, but European and South African teams involved in play-offs could gain unfair advantage over direct qualifiers.

      Delete
    2. Assumed.
      But you are right nogomet, they might use October.
      I forgot about the play-offs.

      Ed, if it is not too much to ask, again (sorry), how it would become in october? Any changes?

      Delete
  4. Elo predicts, based on all currently scheduled matches, that the top-10 of the November 2017 ranking looks like:
    1 Argentina
    2 Germany
    3 Brazil
    4 Chile
    5 Poland (!)
    6 France
    7 Belgium
    8 Portugal
    9 Mexico
    10 Spain
    All of the teams in the top-7 are predicted to qualify, so those teams (+ Russia) would populate pot 1.
    Of course, a lot of qualifiers still have to be played and the elo prediction success-rate is about 58%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed!
      Do you have the point difference among them in this ranking if is not too much to ask?

      Delete
    2. Or if you have an excel spreadsheet to help me, Im writing an article about the possible Seeds, I will give you the correct credits. Mail me, if you have an excel that you could send me gage_cazotto@yahoo.com.br. It would help me a lot.

      Delete
  5. Gabriel,

    the last two World Cups in Brazil and South Africa FIFA used the appropriate October ranking to seed the finals draw in December. So Nogomet is probably right, although maybe for the wrong reason: in my experience the word 'fair' is not present in FIFA's vocabulary and at least of no consideration in their actions and deliberations.

    So here's the elo-predicted top-15 from the October 2017 ranking:
    1 Argentina 1807
    2 Brazil 1729
    3 Germany 1678
    4 Chile 1444
    5 France 1411
    6 Portugal 1404
    7 Poland 1371
    8 Mexico 1345
    9 Belgium 1323
    10 Spain 1214
    11 Colombia 1203
    12 Republic of Ireland 1200
    13 Uruguay 1199
    14 England 1186
    15 Switzerland 1145

    ReplyDelete