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Friday, January 6, 2017

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]


These are the pots (based on January 2017 FIFA ranking):

Pot 1: Jordan, Oman, Philippines, Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan, Korea DPR
Pot 2: India, Palestine, Tajikistan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Turkmenistan
Pot 3: Maldives, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Chinese Taipei, Myanmar
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Kuwait, Cambodia, Nepal, Bhutan

Let's have a look at the teams that could have climbed to a higher pot with 1 or 2 matches against opposition from outside UEFA/CONMEBOL (basically teams with a strength coefficient of 0.85):

To Pot 1

India would have climbed to pot 1 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 83rd or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 104th.

Palestine would have climbed to pot 1 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 91st or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 121st.

Tajikistan would have climbed to pot 1 with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 77th.

Turkmenistan would have climbed to pot 1 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 75th or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 112th.

Yemen would have climbed to pot 1 (from pot 3!) with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 122th.

To Pot 2

Maldives would have climbed to pot 2 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 135th or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 145th.

Lebanon would have climbed to pot 2 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 127th or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 148th.

Yemen would have climbed to pot 2 with a win against any team.

Afghanistan would have climbed to pot 2 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 121st or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 142nd.

Kuwait would have climbed to pot 2 (from pot 4!) with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 124th.

Bhutan would have climbed to pot 2 (from pot 4!) with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 111th.

To Pot 3

Malaysia would have climbed to pot 3 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 140th or 2 wins vs. any team.

Singapore would have climbed to pot 3 with a win vs. a team ranked at least 119th or 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 149th.

Kuwait would have climbed to pot 3 with a win.

Cambodia would have climbed to pot 3 with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 78th.

Nepal would have climbed to pot 3 with 2 wins vs. teams ranked at least 93rd.

Bhutan would have climbed to pot 3 with a wins vs. a team ranked at least 124th or 2 wins vs. any team.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

4 comments:

  1. you should present the downside for teams who could have climbed, in terms of if they had lost would they go down a pot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the end it's about choosing you opponents wisely.

      Delete
  2. Why it is not according to the results of World Cup Qualifier results as mentioned before?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't know. AFC have been using FIFA ranking for the most recent draws.

      Delete