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Friday, December 8, 2017

2018 FIFA World Cup simulations

100000 simulations. For the impact of the draw, see here.

First the average group stage points.


Russia         4.5975
Uruguay        4.4868
Egypt          2.5912
Saudi Arabia   2.1041
---------------------
Portugal       6.149
Spain          5.8439
Iran           3.6404
Morocco        2.5701
---------------------
France         6.0933
Peru           4.6382
Denmark        3.8243
Australia      2.9553
---------------------
Argentina      5.9585
Croatia        4.4249
Iceland        3.6054
Nigeria        2.5877
---------------------
Brazil         6.9388
Switzerland    4.4711
Serbia         3.1970
Costa Rica     3.1393
---------------------
Germany        6.9467
Mexico         4.2374
Sweden         3.7113
Korea Republic 2.8566
---------------------
Belgium        5.6199
England        5.0282
Panama         2.4826
Tunisia        2.3522
---------------------
Colombia       4.9833
Poland         4.8748
Senegal        3.2908
Japan          3.0835

Advancing from the group:


Brazil 92.07
Germany 91.621
Belgium 82.605
England 81.512
Argentina 81.339
France 78.45
Uruguay 77.184
Portugal 74.392
Spain 72.411
Russia 69.201
Colombia 65.829
Poland 59.879
Peru 51
Croatia 49.819
Denmark 48.844
Switzerland 46.819
Mexico 42.937
Japan 41.147
Iceland 39.376
Sweden 39.136
Iran 38.088
Serbia 36.123
Senegal 33.145
Egypt 32.094
Nigeria 29.466
Korea Republic 26.306
Costa Rica 24.988
Australia 21.706
Saudi Arabia 21.521
Panama 19.408
Tunisia 16.475
Morocco 15.109

Reaching the quarter finals:


Brazil 73.688
Germany 59.861
England 56.744
France 56.485
Belgium 55.529
Spain 49.359
Portugal 49.141
Argentina 41.817
Uruguay 37.709
Colombia 30.21
Peru 30.165
Russia 27.557
Denmark 27.328
Poland 22.31
Switzerland 20.21
Iran 17.679
Croatia 16.64
Serbia 13.148
Japan 11.863
Iceland 11.616
Mexico 11.097
Senegal 9.745
Australia 9.384
Sweden 9.205
Egypt 8.781
Costa Rica 8.057
Panama 7.65
Nigeria 6.565
Tunisia 5.949
Morocco 5.081
Korea Republic 4.734
Saudi Arabia 4.693

Reaching the semifinals:


Brazil 59.287
Germany 48.702
Spain 34.462
Portugal 32.989
France 28.466
Uruguay 20.264
Argentina 19.586
England 17.619
Belgium 16.745
Russia 12.92
Switzerland 12.174
Peru 11.764
Denmark 10.04
Colombia 9.379
Iran 9.004
Serbia 6.822
Mexico 6.329
Croatia 5.94
Poland 5.594
Sweden 5.038
Costa Rica 4.002
Iceland 3.721
Egypt 3.184
Australia 2.565
Korea Republic 2.269
Japan 2.245
Morocco 2.073
Senegal 1.933
Nigeria 1.662
Saudi Arabia 1.36
Panama 1.113
Tunisia 0.749

Reaching the final:


Brazil 35.471
Germany 27.751
Spain 20.829
Portugal 19.363
France 15.896
Argentina 11.407
Uruguay 9.247
England 7.171
Belgium 6.746
Peru 5.673
Russia 5.19
Denmark 4.553
Switzerland 4.401
Iran 3.936
Colombia 3.604
Croatia 2.723
Mexico 2.176
Serbia 2.036
Poland 1.837
Sweden 1.591
Iceland 1.548
Costa Rica 1.136
Egypt 0.975
Australia 0.947
Morocco 0.676
Japan 0.649
Korea Republic 0.613
Nigeria 0.593
Senegal 0.528
Saudi Arabia 0.366
Panama 0.231
Tunisia 0.137

Winning the World Cup:

 
Brazil 24.289
Germany 14.749
Spain 10.543
Portugal 9.048
France 8.854
Argentina 5.054
Uruguay 4.147
England 3.391
Belgium 3.106
Peru 2.347
Russia 1.938
Denmark 1.842
Switzerland 1.604
Colombia 1.424
Iran 1.413
Croatia 1.056
Mexico 0.806
Serbia 0.69
Poland 0.622
Iceland 0.566
Sweden 0.56
Costa Rica 0.356
Australia 0.293
Egypt 0.264
Morocco 0.2
Nigeria 0.189
Korea Republic 0.171
Japan 0.166
Senegal 0.149
Saudi Arabia 0.074
Panama 0.053
Tunisia 0.036


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar,

    I wonder why we got such different numbers. Here are my simulation:
    http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html

    All the favorite teams percentage are lower on my simulations. Have you used the poison simulation for away teams presented here?
    http://old.clubelo.com/Articles/Improvingthepredictionmodel.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Amir,

      No, I'm using a different (polynomial) formula - that can be updated with new matches.

      Delete