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Friday, July 7, 2017

FIFA Ranking: August 2017 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 10 August. Of course, the CONCACAF Gold Cup is the big event this month and there are some CHAN qualifiers and the final matches of the 2017 COSAFA Cup.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.



Top 10 already set.

Brazil will return to the top (devaluation of results) and (obviously) their best ever ranking.

Poland will improve again their best ever ranking.

Singapore will return to their worst ever ranking (171st - October 2016).

Three teams will drop to new lows:

Netherlands (at most 34 - 32 in July 2017)
Kuwait (174 - 173 in July 2017)
Cuba (at most 182 - 175 in December 1994)

Switzerland will be 4th after 23 years and 4 months (April 1994).

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking


Brazil 1 1 1
Germany 2 2 2
Argentina 3 3 3
Switzerland 4 4 4
Poland 5 5 5
Portugal 6 6 6
Chile 7 7 7
Colombia 8 8 8
Belgium 9 9 9
France 10 10 10
Spain 12 11 11.19
Mexico 18 11 12.25
Italy 14 12 12.78
England 15 13 13.87
Peru 16 14 15.02
Croatia 17 15 16.07
Uruguay 18 16 17.09
Wales 19 18 18.23
Sweden 21 19 19.35
Iceland 22 20 20.42
Slovakia 23 21 21.49
Costa Rica 30 12 21.81
Northern Ireland 24 22 22.71
Iran 25 23 23.76
Egypt 26 24 25.08
Ukraine 27 25 26.32
Congo DR 28 26 27.47
USA 48 19 27.96
Republic of Ireland 30 27 28.59
Bosnia and Herzegovina 31 28 29.59
Ecuador 32 30 30.98
Turkey 34 31 32.32
Senegal 35 30 32.36
Tunisia 35 32 33.53
Cameroon 36 33 34.95
Netherlands 37 34 35.95
Austria 38 36 36.96
Greece 39 37 38
Nigeria 39 37 38
Czech Republic 42 39 40.01
Paraguay 42 39 40.01
Romania 44 41 42.01
Serbia 44 41 42.01
Burkina Faso 46 43 44.03
Japan 47 44 45.04
Australia 48 45 46.06
Denmark 49 46 47.07
Algeria 50 48 48.08
Korea Republic 51 49 49.08
Slovenia 54 50 50.53
Ghana 54 50 50.8
Bulgaria 55 52 52.19
Montenegro 55 52 52.19
Côte d'Ivoire 57 54 54.24
Haiti 58 55 55.28
Hungary 59 56 56.35
Scotland 60 57 57.37
Saudi Arabia 61 58 58.44
Panama 69 31 58.82
Morocco 62 59 59.44
Russia 63 60 60.62
Albania 65 61 61.7
Uzbekistan 66 62 62.73
Mali 70 63 64.5
Bolivia 71 64 66.21
South Africa 71 63 66.38
Venezuela 72 66 67.89
Guinea 74 63 68.41
Israel 73 67 69.38
Honduras 79 50 69.99
Belarus 74 69 71.02
Armenia 76 70 72.52
Uganda 78 72 73.96
United Arab Emirates 79 72 74.94
Sierra Leone 84 60 76.07
China PR 80 74 76.61
Curaçao 91 26 77.25
Jamaica 97 34 77.72
Qatar 81 76 77.88
Azerbaijan 82 77 78.93
Syria 83 78 80.01
Congo 85 80 81.83
Kenya 86 81 82.88
Libya 89 82 84.57
Trinidad and Tobago 89 82 84.57
Norway 91 85 86.68
Guinea-Bissau 96 75 87.39
Gabon 93 86 88.41
Faroe Islands 95 87 89.96
Mauritania 98 78 90.33
Benin 105 83 92.04
Palestine 97 89 92.52
Madagascar 100 86 92.8
Cyprus 98 91 94.55
Canada 116 35 94.61
Zambia 103 88 94.67
India 99 94 96.76
Estonia 101 95 98.18
Lithuania 103 96 99.25
Guatemala 104 98 100.3
Mozambique 109 92 100.8
Iraq 106 100 102.1
El Salvador 139 57 102.1
Zimbabwe 112 96 103.9
Kazakhstan 109 101 104.8
Malawi 110 103 106.1
Nicaragua 115 67 106.1
Suriname 111 104 107.2
Korea DPR 114 101 108.5
Jordan 112 105 108.6
Togo 121 96 109.2
Finland 113 107 110.7
Georgia 115 109 112.5
Cape Verde Islands 117 111 113.9
Antigua and Barbuda 118 113 115.2
Equatorial Guinea 120 114 116.8
Niger 120 114 116.8
Central African Republic 123 116 118.8
Rwanda 138 101 120.1
Tanzania 135 111 120.5
Oman 125 119 121.3
New Zealand 126 120 122.4
Ethiopia 140 118 122.7
Bahrain 127 121 123.5
Lebanon 128 122 124.5
St. Kitts and Nevis 128 122 124.5
Philippines 132 124 127.5
Burundi 138 118 128.6
Kyrgyz Republic 133 125 128.7
Andorra 134 126 130.1
Swaziland 142 111 131.3
Latvia 136 128 131.9
Thailand 138 128 132.8
Vietnam 138 130 134.1
Liberia 154 108 135
FYR Macedonia 139 132 135.8
Namibia 150 102 136.8
Luxembourg 141 135 137.1
Botswana 144 112 137.2
Angola 147 136 139.3
Turkmenistan 146 138 141.5
Maldives 147 139 142.5
Lesotho 153 135 143.2
New Caledonia 148 141 144.2
Hong Kong 149 142 145.3
Yemen 149 142 145.3
Comoros 154 137 146.8
South Sudan 154 125 147.3
Chinese Taipei 151 146 147.9
Tahiti 152 147 149.5
Tajikistan 153 148 150.5
Gambia 163 113 151.9
Chad 155 152 152.7
Puerto Rico 156 153 153.7
Solomon Islands 157 154 155.3
Sudan 164 137 156
Afghanistan 158 155 156.3
Mauritius 160 148 157.3
Myanmar 159 156 157.4
Moldova 160 157 158.9
Dominican Republic 161 159 160.3
Grenada 162 160 161.3
Guyana 163 161 162.5
Papua New Guinea 164 163 163.9
Bhutan 165 165 165
Belize 166 166 166
Malaysia 166 166 166
Barbados 168 168 168
Nepal 169 169 169
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 169 169 169
Laos 171 171 171
Singapore 171 171 171
Aruba 173 173 173
Kuwait 174 174 174
Indonesia 175 175 175
Cambodia 176 176 176
Dominica 177 177 177
São Tomé e Príncipe 178 178 178
St. Lucia 179 179 179
Kosovo 181 180 180
Fiji 182 181 181
Cuba 183 182 182
Macau 184 183 183
Bermuda 185 184 184
Guam 186 185 185
American Samoa 187 186 186.1
Cook Islands 187 186 186.1
Brunei Darussalam 189 188 188.1
Bangladesh 190 189 189.1
Liechtenstein 191 190 190.1
Malta 191 190 190.1
Samoa 193 192 192.1
Seychelles 194 193 193.3
Djibouti 195 180 193.4
Vanuatu 195 194 194.3
Timor-Leste 196 196 196
Sri Lanka 197 197 197
Mongolia 198 198 198
US Virgin Islands 199 199 199
Pakistan 200 200 200
Montserrat 201 201 201
Cayman Islands 202 202 202
Turks and Caicos Islands 202 202 202
San Marino 204 204 204
British Virgin Islands 205 205 205
Anguilla 206 206 206
Bahamas 206 206 206
Eritrea 206 206 206
Gibraltar 206 206 206
Somalia 206 206 206
Tonga 206 206 206

Min/max points - again based on sims.

July Rank - Country - July Points - August Min Points - August Max Points
 
1 Germany 1609 1549 1549
2 Brazil 1603 1604 1604
3 Argentina 1413 1399 1399
4 Portugal 1332 1267 1267
5 Switzerland 1329 1329 1329
6 Poland 1319 1319 1319
7 Chile 1250 1250 1250
8 Colombia 1208 1208 1208
9 France 1199 1157 1157
10 Belgium 1194 1194 1194
11 Spain 1114 1114 1114
12 Italy 1059 1059 1059
13 England 1051 1051 1051
14 Peru 1014 1023 1023
15 Croatia 1007 1007 1007
16 Mexico 1003 959 1155
17 Uruguay 995 995 995
18 Sweden 933 933 933
19 Iceland 927 927 927
20 Wales 922 951 951
21 Slovakia 917 917 917
22 Northern Ireland 897 897 897
23 Iran 893 893 893
24 Egypt 866 866 866
25 Ukraine 843 843 843
26 Costa Rica 839 806 1060
27 Senegal 831 734 798
28 Congo DR 823 822 822
29 Republic of Ireland 816 816 816
30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 815 815 815
31 Ecuador 791 791 791
32 Netherlands 782 734 734
33 Turkey 779 779 779
34 Tunisia 764 776 776
35 USA 752 678 950
36 Cameroon 738 737 737
37 Austria 723 723 723
38 Greece 716 716 716
39 Nigeria 715 716 716
40 Czech Republic 714 714 714
40 Paraguay 714 714 714
42 Romania 713 713 713
42 Serbia 713 713 713
44 Burkina Faso 698 700 700
45 Australia 689 691 691
46 Japan 684 696 696
47 Denmark 683 683 683
48 Algeria 677 677 677
49 Haiti 667 625 625
50 Ghana 665 645 661
51 Korea Republic 662 674 674
52 Panama 653 528 786
53 Slovenia 652 652 652
54 Montenegro 643 643 643
54 Bulgaria 643 643 643
56 Côte d'Ivoire 631 636 636
57 Hungary 616 616 616
58 Scotland 612 612 612
59 Mali 607 526 554
60 Morocco 604 600 600
61 Saudi Arabia 601 601 601
62 Russia 590 590 590
63 Albania 583 583 583
64 South Africa 581 506 536
65 Uzbekistan 579 579 579
66 Guinea 541 477 536
67 Bolivia 532 532 532
68 Curaçao 531 384 848
69 Venezuela 521 521 521
70 Israel 512 512 512
71 Belarus 503 503 503
72 Honduras 499 443 666
73 Armenia 480 480 480
74 Uganda 476 451 470
75 United Arab Emirates 459 459 459
76 Jamaica 442 359 773
77 China PR 441 447 447
78 Trinidad and Tobago 436 399 399
79 Qatar 435 433 433
80 Azerbaijan 427 427 427
81 Mauritania 425 346 424
82 Syria 423 423 423
83 Sierra Leone 415 419 595
84 Kenya 408 412 412
85 Guinea-Bissau 407 365 450
86 Congo 399 413 413
87 Libya 396 399 399
88 Norway 391 391 391
89 Madagascar 380 339 386
90 Faroe Islands 376 376 376
91 Gabon 373 381 381
92 Zambia 369 369 369
93 Benin 366 330 407
94 Palestine 364 364 364
95 Cyprus 358 358 358
96 India 341 341 341
97 Mozambique 336 307 354
98 Estonia 334 334 334
99 Lithuania 333 333 333
100 Canada 331 282 740
101 Zimbabwe 324 324 324
102 Guatemala 320 331 331
103 El Salvador 319 227 619
103 Iraq 319 324 324
105 Nicaragua 312 288 522
106 Kazakhstan 308 308 308
107 Suriname 305 305 305
108 Jordan 300 299 299
109 Togo 296 267 333
110 Finland 293 293 293
111 Malawi 291 306 306
112 Georgia 290 290 290
113 Korea DPR 288 292 309
114 Tanzania 287 240 284
115 Cape Verde Islands 284 284 284
116 Niger 283 272 272
117 Antigua and Barbuda 276 276 276
118 Equatorial Guinea 272 272 272
119 Central African Republic 271 271 271
119 Oman 271 259 259
121 Burundi 262 228 265
122 New Zealand 258 258 258
123 Bahrain 257 257 257
124 St. Kitts and Nevis 255 255 255
124 Lebanon 255 255 255
126 Philippines 249 249 249
127 Rwanda 248 230 318
127 Kyrgyz Republic 248 248 248
129 Andorra 246 246 246
130 Latvia 242 242 242
131 Thailand 235 230 243
132 Swaziland 232 217 286
133 Vietnam 231 231 231
134 FYR Macedonia 228 228 228
135 Luxembourg 223 223 223
136 Ethiopia 215 215 266
137 Turkmenistan 214 200 200
138 Botswana 204 201 287
138 Lesotho 204 174 226
140 Comoros 203 177 216
141 Angola 201 194 220
142 Maldives 199 199 199
143 New Caledonia 196 196 196
143 South Sudan 196 172 252
145 Hong Kong 192 192 192
145 Yemen 192 192 192
147 Chinese Taipei 185 185 185
148 Tahiti 181 181 181
149 Tajikistan 179 180 180
150 Liberia 172 172 293
151 Chad 168 168 168
152 Puerto Rico 167 167 167
153 Mauritius 166 150 180
154 Solomon Islands 162 162 162
155 Afghanistan 160 160 160
156 Namibia 159 187 308
157 Myanmar 157 157 157
158 Moldova 154 154 154
159 Dominican Republic 144 144 144
160 Guyana 135 135 135
161 Gambia 132 132 276
162 Papua New Guinea 130 130 130
163 Grenada 128 140 140
164 Sudan 123 126 206
164 Cuba 123 80 80
164 Bhutan 123 123 123
167 Belize 119 119 119
167 Malaysia 119 119 119
169 Singapore 118 116 116
170 Nepal 117 117 117
171 Laos 116 116 116
172 Aruba 113 113 113
173 Kuwait 111 111 111
173 Cambodia 111 109 109
175 Indonesia 110 110 110
176 São Tomé e Príncipe 98 98 98
177 Kosovo 90 90 90
177 Dominica 90 107 107
179 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 88 117 117
180 Fiji 87 87 87
181 Barbados 84 118 118
182 Macau 82 79 79
183 St. Lucia 78 95 95
184 Bermuda 72 72 72
185 American Samoa 64 64 64
185 Cook Islands 64 64 64
185 Djibouti 64 46 92
188 Brunei Darussalam 62 62 62
188 Guam 62 69 69
190 Bangladesh 60 60 60
191 Malta 56 56 56
191 Liechtenstein 56 56 56
193 Samoa 53 53 53
194 Vanuatu 51 51 51
194 Seychelles 51 52 52
196 Timor-Leste 42 42 42
197 Sri Lanka 34 34 34
198 Mongolia 30 30 30
199 US Virgin Islands 26 26 26
200 Pakistan 24 24 24
201 Montserrat 20 20 20
202 Cayman Islands 13 13 13
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 13 13
204 San Marino 12 12 12
205 British Virgin Islands 6 6 6
206 Anguilla 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Gibraltar 0 0 0
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

22 comments:

  1. How does the FIFA ranking deal with Gold Cup matches against non-FIFA members (French Guiana, Martinique)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Matchpoints for these matches can't be calculated as non-FIFA members are not ranked. So these matches just aren't taken into account for the FIFA points calculation.

      Delete
  2. Continuous rise for India....go India go

    ReplyDelete
  3. Who should India arrange friendly with to climb further?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I imagine that whoever finishes second in the Switzerland/Portugal group will end up in the top pot for the European play-offs. But what about the Netherlands? If they manage to overtake Sweden and finish second, is there any chance they will get a spot in the top pot or are they virtually assured of a place in the lower pot if they reach second place? They are really down in the rankings now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Switzerland and Portugal will be seeded in the final draw

      Delete
  5. The most recent simulations of the remaining match-schedule until the end of the qualification in October indicate that the Netherlands has the following probabilities:
    - to end first in the group: 5,9%;
    - to end on second spot and be seeded (which will be based on the October 2017 ranking): 14,6%;
    - to end on second spot and be unseeded: 2,4%;
    - to end on second spot and be the worst number two over all groups: 1,9%;
    - to end lower than second spot in the group: 75,2%.

    If they are to pass Sweden or France and become second in the group, they will have to produce probably 4 wins (with big matchpoints per match involved) so in that case they will climb considerably in the October ranking compared to their lowest position now.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thank you. The Dutch in pot B is my worst nightmare as we (Italy) are almost certainly heading to the play-off.

    p.s. just a remainder for Santa: Northern Ireland

    ReplyDelete
  7. Swizrland will be 4th in the FIFA Rank. In previous post I've found this info ... Looking at the final seeds...15,07%-Switzerland. Less then France, Belgium, Portugal, Mexico, Chile and Columbia. It is possible? How was it calculated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A lot of points from September and October 2016 will depreciate, thus Switzerland will drop in the rankings. Unless they beat Portugal away.

      Delete
    2. In Sep. 2016 they won and lost their games and Oct. 2016 won 2 matches. I think this year they will have the same results. So Switzerland won't drop in the rankings more than 2-3 position. I think that Switzerlad will be seeded team

      Delete
  8. Elo predictions for all remaining matches until October indicate that Switzerland will be 13th in October with a loss against Portugal and three wins in their other remaining qualifiers. With a draw against Portugal they will be 12th and only with a win against Portugal they will be 6th and a certain seed for the finals draw in December.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ed, please tell us which place in Oct. ranking will take Poland and why they has only 81.17% chance to be seeded??

    ReplyDelete
  10. Well, according to the static elo-predictions Poland will be 5th in October and seeded. Why they only have 81% probability to be seeded is a question for Edgar who has done these simulations. But I reckon it's the correct percentage :)

    ReplyDelete
  11. On Fctables is live fifa rankings. This website generate national teams classifiction when each team score a goal!

    So we can see the predicted fifa ranking and We can make simulation for selected teams.

    https://www.fctables.com/fifa-rankings/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Didn't see a working Contact-page on your site, so here's my comment:

      Looks like a very nice feature.

      Remarks:
      - the publishing date of FIFA rankings is NOT by definition the first thursday of a month.

      - about the page "how-is-the-fifa-ranking-calculated" concerning the determination of the timeframes:
      First three timeframes each always consist of 365 days; fourth timeframe always consists of 366 days. The startdate of the first timeframe is calculated as: release date of the ranking minus 365 days. The enddate of the first timeframe is in general the Sunday before the release date on Thursday. Following this calculation the exact timeframe dates therefore also depend on the occurrence of leap years:

      release date d-mm-y

      if ranking month mm-y is in range 03-2015 to 02-2016
      1st timeframe from d-mm-(y-1) till (d-4)-mm-y
      2nd timeframe from d-mm-(y-2) till (d-1)-mm-(y-1)
      3rd timeframe from d-mm-(y-3) till (d-1)-mm-(y-2)
      4th timeframe from d-mm-(y-4) till (d-1)-mm-(y-3)

      if ranking month mm-y is in range 03-2016 to 02-2017
      1st timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-1) till (d-4)-mm-y
      2nd timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-2) till d-mm-(y-1)
      3rd timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-3) till d-mm-(y-2)
      4th timeframe from d-mm-(y-4) till d-mm-(y-3)

      if ranking month mm-y is in range 03-2017 to 02-2018
      1st timeframe from d-mm-(y-1) till (d-4)-mm-y
      2nd timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-2) till (d-1)-mm-(y-1)
      3rd timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-3) till d-mm-(y-2)
      4th timeframe from d-mm-(y-4) till d-mm-(y-3)

      if ranking month mm-y is in range 03-2018 to 02-2019
      1st timeframe from d-mm-(y-1) till (d-4)-mm-y
      2nd timeframe from d-mm-(y-2) till (d-1)-mm-(y-1)
      3rd timeframe from (d+1)-mm-(y-3) till (d-1)-mm-(y-2)
      4th timeframe from d-mm-(y-4) till d-mm-(y-3)

      if ranking month mm-y is in range 03-2019 to 02-2020
      1st timeframe from d-mm-(y-1) till (d-4)-mm-y
      2nd timeframe from d-mm-(y-2) till (d-1)-mm-(y-1)
      3rd timeframe from d-mm-(y-3) till (d-1)-mm-(y-2)
      4th timeframe from d-mm-(y-4) till (d-1)-mm-(y-3)

      Example timeframe dates for the July 2017 ranking published July 6th 2017:

      release date 6-Jul-2017
      1st timeframe from 6-Jul-2016 till 2-Jul-2017
      2nd timeframe from 7-Jul-2015 till 5-Jul-2016
      3rd timeframe from 7-Jul-2014 till 6-Jul-2015
      4th timeframe from 6-Jul-2013 till 6-Jul-2014

      Delete
    2. For you tips for 1 jule 2017
      timeframes will be:
      2016-06-01 - 2017-05-28
      2015-06-02 - 2016-05-31
      2014-06-02 - 2015-06-01
      2013-06-01 - 2014-06-01

      That is correct?

      Delete
    3. 1 june 2017

      Delete
    4. Can you send me a example timeframes with dates for
      1. 03-2015 to 02-2016
      2. 03-2016 to 02-2017
      3. 03-2017 to 02-2018

      Delete
    5. yes, you got the correct timeframe dates for a publishing date of June 1st 2017.

      I think you can calculate the timeframe dates for each publishing date, given the formulas above.

      Delete
  12. Hi,

    my email: contact[at]fctables.com.

    Thanks for you post. I was searching this information, I wrote to FIFA but I didnt get answear. This is what I looking for. I will upgrade my website for these timeframes.

    On saturday I will post on www.fctables.com/blog/ info about bug with awarded matches what I found in official Fifa rankings.

    ReplyDelete
  13. O, that's probably not a bug, but just FIFA's (weird) way to handle awarded matches. The matchpoints for an awarded match are calculated using the opponents position from the ranking of the month in which the decision to award the match was taken. Not, as one would assume, from the ranking of the month in which the match was actually played.

    ReplyDelete