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Friday, March 31, 2017

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.



Previous simulations (18 November 2016).

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

Serbia, Saudi Arabia and Senegal replace Netherlands, Panama and South Africa.

AFC: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, Saudi Arabia
CAF: Egypt, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, Senegal
CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, USA
CONMEBOL: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina
UEFA: Germany, Poland, France, England, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, Croatia, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Serbia, Iceland

These would be the seeds: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Poland, Chile, Portugal, Colombia.

Comparing to the last update (without sims), Poland and Portugal have replaced Belgium and France.

Looking at the last sims (ran on 17 March), Colombia replaced France.

100% - Brazil
99.89% - Mexico
99.81% - Germany
99.46% - Iran
98.08% - Poland
96.78% - France
96.25% - England
94.89% - Costa Rica
93.41% - Colombia
92.98% - Japan
92.21% - Spain
91.9% - Chile
89.26% - Uruguay
87.47% - Argentina
87.04% - Egypt
84.27% - Switzerland
84.19% - Belgium
82.32% - Italy
80.84% - Korea Republic
79.69% - Portugal
79.25% - Croatia
79.03% - USA
72.18% - Nigeria
68.75% - Australia
64.65% - Republic of Ireland
64.02% - Côte d'Ivoire
63.87% - Saudi Arabia
58.21% - Congo DR
54.46% - Serbia
53.75% - Panama
41.26% - Uzbekistan
40.35% - Tunisia
39.44% - Senegal
36.04% - Iceland
35.42% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
32.01% - South Africa
27.83% - Burkina Faso
25.03% - Sweden
23.81% - Slovakia
23.5% - Greece
23.39% - Morocco
21.22% - Cameroon
19.51% - Northern Ireland
18.11% - Turkey
17.73% - Netherlands
15.64% - Honduras
15.01% - Wales
14.37% - Ukraine
13.43% - Denmark
13.38% - New Zealand
12.78% - Ecuador
9.3% - Peru
8.89% - Uganda
7.65% - Czech Republic
7.6% - Scotland
6.74% - Gabon
6.16% - Slovenia
6.12% - Montenegro
5.85% - Mali
5.44% - Romania
5.08% - Algeria
4.64% - Bulgaria
4.29% - Austria
3.99% - Syria
3.71% - Ghana
2.65% - Trinidad and Tobago
2.41% - Paraguay
2.13% - United Arab Emirates
1.69% - Hungary
1.52% - Zambia
1.29% - Israel
1.15% - Guinea
0.72% - Cape Verde Islands
0.6% - China PR
0.49% - Armenia
0.37% - Azerbaijan
0.36% - Congo
0.29% - Libya
0.27% - Qatar
0.21% - Lithuania
0.06% - Norway
0.04% - Solomon Islands
0.03% - Tahiti
0.02% - Estonia
0.02% - Papua New Guinea
0.01% - Kazakhstan
0.01% - Cyprus
0.01% - Belarus
0.01% - Finland
0.01% - Albania

Top 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:
 
Colombia 93.41 59.8 33.61
Saudi Arabia 63.87 36.05 27.82
Serbia 54.46 31.68 22.78
USA 79.03 59.73 19.3
Japan 92.98 78.28 14.7
Greece 23.5 11.48 12.02
Northern Ireland 19.51 8.29 11.22
Burkina Faso 27.83 17.43 10.4
Poland 98.08 87.99 10.09
Morocco 23.39 13.95 9.44

Bottom 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:
 
Ecuador 12.78 49.23 -36.45
Netherlands 17.73 49.86 -32.13
United Arab Emirates 2.13 28.41 -26.28
Panama 53.75 75.55 -21.8
Republic of Ireland 64.65 80.74 -16.09
Côte d'Ivoire 64.02 76.39 -12.37
South Africa 32.01 41.13 -9.12
Ukraine 14.37 22.63 -8.26
Tunisia 40.35 48.53 -8.18

Looking at the final draw seeds:

99.99% - Brazil
96.25% - Germany
87.46% - Argentina
72.65% - Poland
72.51% - Chile
49.7% - Portugal
48.23% - Colombia
47.65% - France
40.08% - Mexico
21.84% - Spain
14.35% - Belgium
13.66% - Switzerland
8.15% - Peru
8% - England
7% - Wales
5.64% - Italy
3.2% - Uruguay
1.21% - Turkey
1.17% - Croatia
0.62% - Ecuador
0.23% - Bulgaria
0.16% - Slovakia
0.07% - Costa Rica
0.06% - Ukraine
0.04% - Republic of Ireland
0.03% - Paraguay
0.03% - Northern Ireland
0.01% - USA
0.01% - Australia

Top 5 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time


Poland 72.65 48.84 23.81
Colombia 48.23 28.05 20.18
Spain 21.84 7.36 14.48
Mexico 40.08 30.44 9.64
Italy 5.64 0.96 4.68

Bottom 5 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:


Uruguay 3.2 25.59 -22.39
Belgium 14.35 31.55 -17.2
France 47.65 60.84 -13.19
Ecuador 0.62 12.44 -11.82
Portugal 49.7 56.9 -7.2

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

4 comments:

  1. How did you choose the final draw seeds?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. October 2017 FIFA ranking. Sims are in the final part of the post.

      Delete
  2. Which position will Poland take in October 2017 ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Current elo-predictions indicate spot 7 for Poland in the October ranking, only 3 points behind France on 5th and 1 point behind Portugal on 6th.
    They could well be seeded for the WC draw if they perform conform expectations the coming months.

    ReplyDelete