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Friday, March 17, 2017

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 preview

Next update: 31 March 2017

125 matches left [Sim results at the end].

Brazil will be the next No. 1 if they win against Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (at home). However, the odds are not in their favor. Argentina (home vs. Chile, away to Bolivia) were 1st in 57.95% of the 10000 simulations I ran, with Brazil with only 42.05%. Of course, Elo ratings don't take into account high altitude.

March Rank - Country - March Points - April Min Points - April Max Points

1 Argentina 1644 1505 1655
2 Brazil 1534 1460 1661
3 Germany 1443 1378 1464
4 Chile 1389 1345 1487
5 Belgium 1379 1248 1346
6 France 1318 1265 1327
7 Colombia 1312 1216 1348
8 Portugal 1240 1183 1286
9 Uruguay 1200 1097 1334
10 Spain 1162 1095 1204
11 Switzerland 1138 1152 1212
12 Poland 1121 1105 1183
12 Wales 1121 1083 1192
14 England 1114 1053 1144
15 Italy 1095 1058 1165
16 Croatia 1042 933 1032
17 Mexico 1026 945 1072
18 Peru 965 914 1092
19 Costa Rica 953 884 1010
20 Egypt 904 890 910
21 Netherlands 900 792 929
22 Ecuador 887 839 1041
23 Iceland 875 819 872
24 Republic of Ireland 860 787 935
25 Slovakia 853 817 846
26 Turkey 851 794 863
27 Hungary 834 801 920
28 Senegal 831 759 820
29 Bosnia and Herzegovina 826 725 815
30 USA 818 784 879
31 Ukraine 798 761 885
32 Cameroon 795 749 803
33 Iran 794 687 838
34 Austria 793 723 779
35 Northern Ireland 786 750 823
36 Burkina Faso 778 724 784
37 Tunisia 774 701 763
38 Congo DR 750 712 733
39 Romania 703 645 739
40 Korea Republic 691 633 773
41 Nigeria 685 637 759
42 Czech Republic 684 645 679
43 Ghana 683 682 682
43 Paraguay 683 627 862
45 Sweden 682 641 768
46 Greece 679 676 837
47 Côte d'Ivoire 663 609 684
48 Denmark 662 613 745
49 Morocco 661 573 633
50 Algeria 645 576 611
51 Japan 631 554 685
52 Serbia 629 622 671
53 Panama 627 587 688
54 Albania 623 533 690
55 Australia 622 560 694
56 Israel 617 557 792
57 Saudi Arabia 610 549 646
58 Slovenia 609 614 724
59 Venezuela 601 564 753
60 Russia 591 545 628
61 Mali 586 504 504
62 South Africa 567 509 546
63 Uzbekistan 561 525 642
64 Montenegro 546 560 793
65 Honduras 538 502 633
66 Benin 531 396 444
67 Scotland 524 448 608
68 United Arab Emirates 521 453 623
69 Haiti 518 489 584
70 Guinea 501 399 501
71 Bulgaria 489 424 614
72 Belarus 472 428 558
73 St. Kitts and Nevis 469 334 334
74 Curaçao 467 477 522
74 Uganda 467 455 477
76 Jamaica 465 458 458
77 Cape Verde Islands 460 382 418
78 Congo 455 392 426
79 Guatemala 445 352 352
80 Guinea-Bissau 434 346 404
81 Norway 428 387 523
82 Faroe Islands 422 411 472
83 Trinidad and Tobago 421 383 523
84 Qatar 415 369 498
85 Armenia 414 414 527
86 China PR 407 332 522
87 Gabon 399 381 414
88 Kenya 392 376 449
89 Azerbaijan 380 386 548
90 Antigua and Barbuda 370 349 349
90 Zambia 370 370 370
92 Libya 366 387 387
93 Rwanda 364 285 285
94 Kazakhstan 357 325 483
95 Sierra Leone 355 300 300
95 Syria 355 346 518
97 Bolivia 354 328 573
98 Swaziland 351 378 378
99 Finland 342 317 515
99 Namibia 342 346 346
101 Togo 339 327 369
102 Liberia 338 192 192
103 Malawi 336 333 333
104 Ethiopia 335 265 265
105 Mozambique 334 326 326
106 Mauritania 331 272 366
107 Lithuania 326 331 504
108 Central African Republic 325 239 264
109 Zimbabwe 323 323 323
110 Equatorial Guinea 322 287 287
111 Latvia 312 265 446
112 El Salvador 306 307 339
112 New Zealand 306 243 301
114 Cyprus 301 269 400
115 Jordan 300 272 311
116 Botswana 298 276 292
117 Canada 293 299 339
118 Nicaragua 292 256 407
119 Estonia 291 273 364
120 Suriname 284 284 284
121 Korea DPR 282 289 289
122 Iraq 274 217 405
122 Oman 274 245 290
124 Philippines 271 211 261
125 Kyrgyzstan 265 203 249
126 Georgia 261 250 374
127 Bahrain 254 211 272
127 Thailand 254 245 354
129 Dominican Republic 242 184 184
129 Niger 242 235 235
131 Guyana 236 194 194
132 India 233 242 331
133 Tajikistan 231 196 254
134 Palestine 229 162 265
135 Luxembourg 227 185 408
136 Vietnam 222 205 242
137 Madagascar 220 185 276
138 Sudan 217 155 308
139 Burundi 215 192 217
140 Maldives 206 175 245
141 Lesotho 205 190 190
142 Comoros 202 113 228
142 Hong Kong 202 179 233
144 Turkmenistan 200 129 193
145 Puerto Rico 194 221 221
146 Mauritius 191 123 228
147 Angola 187 178 229
148 Yemen 186 180 299
149 Tahiti 184 121 212
150 Chad 179 179 179
151 São Tomé e Príncipe 177 98 259
152 Belize 176 188 188
153 Cuba 175 124 124
154 Barbados 174 110 110
155 Lebanon 172 164 216
156 Afghanistan 170 109 216
157 Tanzania 157 144 218
158 Grenada 152 103 103
159 Chinese Taipei 149 131 178
160 Aruba 147 127 127
161 Malaysia 146 141 155
162 Moldova 139 127 317
163 Singapore 138 129 175
164 Kosovo 135 112 331
165 Kuwait 133 120 120
166 FYR Macedonia 130 131 225
167 Indonesia 123 105 116
167 New Caledonia 123 121 121
167 South Sudan 123 91 218
170 Nepal 122 112 193
170 Papua New Guinea 122 122 187
172 Myanmar 120 110 157
173 Cambodia 116 108 150
173 Laos 116 107 107
175 Dominica 114 67 67
176 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 102 102
177 Bhutan 110 123 223
178 St. Lucia 108 114 114
179 Gambia 106 73 120
179 Vanuatu 106 93 93
181 Fiji 102 90 277
182 Malta 87 86 249
183 Bermuda 86 75 75
184 Brunei Darussalam 82 65 65
184 Liechtenstein 82 64 117
184 Macau 82 77 136
187 Seychelles 78 45 45
188 Solomon Islands 76 92 92
189 Guam 76 82 82
190 American Samoa 64 64 64
190 Cook Islands 64 64 64
190 Samoa 64 64 64
193 Bangladesh 57 60 60
194 Timor-Leste 53 52 52
195 US Virgin Islands 44 26 26
196 Mongolia 34 34 34
197 Sri Lanka 33 34 34
198 Pakistan 32 24 24
199 Montserrat 30 26 26
200 Andorra 29 29 139
201 Cayman Islands 21 13 13
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 20 20
203 San Marino 17 12 177
204 British Virgin Islands 11 5 5
205 Anguilla 0 0 0
205 Bahamas 0 0 0
205 Djibouti 0 0 106
205 Eritrea 0 0 0
205 Gibraltar 0 0 212
205 Somalia 0 0 0
205 Tonga 0 0 0

Simulation results:

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking
 
Argentina 2 1 1.421
Brazil 4 1 1.588
Germany 4 2 3.206
Chile 6 2 3.802
Belgium 9 4 5.770
France 9 5 5.969
Colombia 9 4 7.044
Portugal 11 5 7.705
Switzerland 14 8 9.466
Uruguay 15 5 10.325
Spain 15 8 11.239
Poland 15 8 12.076
Italy 17 10 12.706
England 17 10 13.879
Wales 16 8 13.929
Mexico 20 14 16.649
Peru 23 13 17.502
Croatia 21 16 17.511
Ecuador 29 16 19.828
Costa Rica 25 16 20.503
Egypt 24 19 20.916
Republic of Ireland 35 17 22.637
Netherlands 34 18 23.756
Turkey 32 21 24.401
Slovakia 31 21 25.372
Iceland 31 21 25.432
USA 34 21 26.261
Hungary 34 18 28.533
Northern Ireland 40 24 30.129
Iran 46 23 31.534
Bosnia and Herzegovina 41 25 31.600
Ukraine 40 20 32.576
Cameroon 41 26 32.596
Senegal 39 26 32.658
Austria 42 29 33.773
Burkina Faso 45 29 37.741
Korea Republic 55 29 39.204
Tunisia 46 31 39.585
Congo DR 46 35 40.518
Sweden 55 31 41.558
Romania 55 35 42.141
Nigeria 56 32 42.333
Greece 52 23 44.061
Ghana 50 39 44.309
Paraguay 58 22 44.525
Czech Republic 54 41 45.460
Montenegro 67 28 48.702
Australia 66 39 48.934
Denmark 59 34 49.556
Serbia 58 43 49.979
Slovenia 59 36 50.292
Panama 63 39 50.408
Japan 67 40 52.271
Côte d'Ivoire 61 45 52.867
Venezuela 66 34 54.562
Morocco 64 46 55.073
Saudi Arabia 66 44 55.750
Algeria 64 51 56.751
Uzbekistan 71 45 57.429
Russia 68 51 60.115
Israel 67 28 60.662
Albania 70 40 62.365
Scotland 79 52 62.631
Haiti 73 55 63.640
Honduras 73 47 64.070
South Africa 71 60 65.010
United Arab Emirates 79 48 67.828
Mali 74 64 68.625
Curaçao 75 64 69.551
Bulgaria 85 49 69.703
Armenia 86 62 70.197
Uganda 79 67 72.743
Jamaica 80 68 73.147
Belarus 83 60 74.803
Faroe Islands 86 68 75.453
Guinea 88 67 76.870
Trinidad and Tobago 92 64 79.073
Benin 90 73 80.268
Norway 91 64 80.357
Kenya 92 72 80.733
Congo 91 74 81.377
Qatar 94 67 81.436
Cape Verde Islands 92 75 83.343
Azerbaijan 92 61 83.460
Libya 92 79 84.761
Gabon 93 75 84.832
Syria 99 65 85.331
Swaziland 94 85 88.487
China PR 105 65 88.966
Guatemala 98 88 92.137
Bolivia 109 57 92.376
Guinea-Bissau 100 78 93.144
Antigua and Barbuda 99 89 93.189
Namibia 100 90 94.189
Kazakhstan 109 67 94.247
Cyprus 126 77 94.851
Zambia 102 93 96.604
Finland 111 66 98.413
St. Kitts and Nevis 104 94 98.630
Malawi 105 95 99.630
Lithuania 106 65 99.915
Togo 110 87 101.439
El Salvador 113 93 102.149
Mauritania 124 88 103.160
Mozambique 111 100 103.958
Zimbabwe 113 103 107.192
Jordan 120 103 107.612
Georgia 130 87 108.676
Canada 116 93 108.763
Sierra Leone 116 106 110.207
Estonia 126 88 112.302
Nicaragua 131 77 112.488
Oman 129 108 112.967
Korea DPR 120 109 114.057
Equatorial Guinea 121 110 115.413
Rwanda 122 112 116.590
New Zealand 133 106 116.790
Suriname 123 113 117.591
Botswana 124 109 117.995
Latvia 127 73 118.863
India 133 97 119.054
Thailand 133 88 119.327
Ethiopia 128 118 122.816
Iraq 140 80 123.446
Bahrain 142 117 123.604
Central African Republic 134 120 126.746
Philippines 141 120 126.851
Kyrgyzstan 141 122 127.513
Madagascar 152 114 129.306
Yemen 156 107 130.275
Niger 136 126 131.093
Vietnam 143 125 133.480
Puerto Rico 139 129 133.995
Palestine 160 118 134.710
Tajikistan 146 122 135.925
Luxembourg 153 78 138.033
Burundi 148 132 140.168
Lebanon 159 132 140.210
Guyana 147 136 140.532
Liberia 149 137 142.598
South Sudan 184 131 143.225
Tanzania 162 131 143.531
Lesotho 150 138 144.263
Maldives 159 124 145.039
Belize 152 141 145.756
Hong Kong 156 129 146.598
Dominican Republic 154 143 147.766
Turkmenistan 167 137 148.908
Angola 158 130 148.916
Mauritius 169 129 149.483
FYR Macedonia 166 129 149.491
Chad 158 144 149.808
Sudan 161 107 151.748
Tahiti 171 134 152.671
Afghanistan 179 132 154.081
Comoros 176 130 155.127
Moldova 167 104 156.718
Kosovo 178 97 157.114
Papua New Guinea 171 142 158.131
Malaysia 165 151 158.531
São Tomé e Príncipe 183 122 159.161
Chinese Taipei 168 148 159.813
Singapore 167 148 161.032
Myanmar 178 152 163.105
Aruba 169 158 163.723
Fiji 184 115 164.143
Cuba 170 160 165.123
Bhutan 171 132 166.068
New Caledonia 172 162 167.540
Kuwait 173 164 168.881
Nepal 178 137 169.796
St. Lucia 178 166 171.676
Indonesia 180 166 171.925
Malta 185 123 173.129
Cambodia 179 156 173.451
Barbados 179 170 174.619
Laos 180 173 176.471
Grenada 181 175 177.551
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 182 176 178.551
Vanuatu 184 178 179.831
Gambia 188 164 180.549
Liechtenstein 190 165 180.649
Solomon Islands 185 179 180.831
Guam 186 182 183.167
Macau 188 158 184.115
Andorra 200 156 185.359
Bermuda 189 184 185.403
Dominica 190 186 186.921
Brunei Darussalam 191 187 188.176
American Samoa 192 188 189.176
Cook Islands 192 188 189.176
Samoa 192 188 189.176
Bangladesh 195 192 192.581
Timor-Leste 196 193 193.738
Seychelles 197 194 194.738
Sri Lanka 198 195 195.750
Mongolia 198 195 195.750
Montserrat 201 198 198.371
US Virgin Islands 201 198 198.371
Pakistan 203 200 200.371
Turks and Caicos Islands 204 201 201.371
San Marino 205 151 201.668
Djibouti 206 174 202.064
Cayman Islands 205 202 202.785
British Virgin Islands 206 204 204.431
Gibraltar 206 136 205.090
Bahamas 207 205 205.431
Anguilla 207 205 205.431
Eritrea 207 205 205.431
Somalia 207 205 205.431
Tonga 207 205 205.431

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

21 comments:

  1. Happy St Patrick's Day everyone, from Dublin, 🇮🇪 ☘️

    ReplyDelete
  2. I wonder what are the chances now of Brazil reaching the top of the FIFA rankings after the 4-1 thrashing of Uruguay!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why can Austria only get less points in every case?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First timeframe average climbs with 2 wins from 205 to 220, but the weighted second timeframe average drops from 321 to 305, as the weighted third timeframe average drops from 180 to 165. The weighted 4th timeframe average climbs from 87 to 89.
      So this results in a drop from 793 in March to 779 in April at best.

      So it's the devaluation of past results that can't be compensated by the matchpoints, to be gained with wins in the qualifier against Moldova (371 pts) and the friendly against Finland (300 pts).

      Delete
  4. 50% of games played in the European qualifiers. I crunched some numbers and this is what I see:

    Group winners:

    France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Croatia

    Second place finishers:

    Pot A - Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, Ireland
    Pot B - Slovakia, Bosnia, Ukraine, Czech Republic
    Out - Denmark

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't see why you picked Netherlands, especially after their loss away to Bulgaria. I would put my money Sweden, then Bulgaria because of direct games, but certainly not Netherlands for that second spot. Out of the game, IMO.

      Delete
    2. pot A - Switzerland, Italy, Iceland, Rep. of Ireland
      pot B - Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Northern Ireland

      Delete
    3. Pot A -Portugal,Italy,Turkey,İreland
      Pot B -
      Netherland,N.Ireland,Slovakia,Greece

      Delete
    4. Most bookmakers still pick the Netherlands over Sweden for second place.

      Head-to-head results don't count for much in FIFA competitions. They are the fourth tie-breaker.

      Pots are determined by FIFA rankings.

      Delete
  5. Hi, what is India's best case scenario? They've beaten Myanmar. What else has to happen for them to get into the top 100?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Simple, teams above India has to drop their points and that can only happen if those teams lose or draw their respective matches. It is very hard to predict exact ranking unless you already've the results which can be used for calculations.

      Delete
    2. Still as of Today what would be the probably ranking?

      Delete
    3. According to WeGlobalFootball India will be ranked 101.

      Delete
  6. now we have new world No.1, congrats Brazil

    ReplyDelete
  7. Brazil first and Uruguay dropped out of the top 10 after lose with Peru. And there is a possibility that Argentinian team won't even make it to the World Cup. But they are in the top 10. Losing Messi for 4 games and immediately lost to the Bolivian team.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Morocco won friendly against Burkina Faso & Tunisia at home.

    what is the new position

    ReplyDelete
  9. As of today what would be the probable ranking for India in April?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Here are (in two parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup 2018 qualifying after the March matchdays from last week. The scored goals for each team in a scheduled match are calculated using ClubElo's expected goals formula, which uses the home team win expectancy according to elo.
    All probabilities [%] after 1000 simulations.

    -- UEFA --
    columns:
    1: group
    2: 2nd place in group is seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    3: 2nd place in group is unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group is worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2

    A - 15,7 - 74,6 - 9,7
    B - 97,0 - 3,0 - 0,0
    C - 17,4 - 62,8 - 19,8
    D - 38,8 - 51,9 - 9,3
    E - 8,6 - 56,1 - 35,3
    F - 28,8 - 56,3 - 14,9
    G - 96,0 - 3,9 - 0,1
    H - 58,0 - 40,1 - 1,9
    I - 39,7 - 51,3 - 9,0

    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    5: 2nd place in group and worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2
    6: 3rd-6th place in group
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+0.7*col3+0.3*col4)

    Group A
    FRA - 89,5 - 8,9 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 1,6 - 95,7
    SWE - 7,3 - 2,4 - 43,0 - 4,7 - 42,6 - 21,9
    NED - 2,4 - 4,3 - 20,0 - 3,4 - 69,9 - 11,4
    BUL - 0,8 - 0,1 - 11,6 - 1,6 - 85,9 - 4,4
    BLR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    LUX - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    SUI - 63,6 - 35,9 - 0,1 - 0,0 - 0,4 - 88,8
    POR - 36,4 - 61,1 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,5 - 79,2
    HUN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,9 - 0,0 - 97,1 - 0,9
    LVA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    FRO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    AND - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group C
    GER - 99,0 - 1,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,7
    NIR - 1,0 - 16,4 - 37,9 - 9,0 - 35,7 - 23,9
    CZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 23,8 - 7,2 - 69,0 - 7,1
    AZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 1,0 - 2,9 - 96,1 - 0,3
    NOR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,7 - 99,2 - 0,0
    SMR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group D
    IRL - 48,7 - 19,3 - 10,2 - 2,5 - 19,3 - 65,3
    SRB - 41,9 - 0,8 - 32,3 - 3,3 - 21,7 - 52,2
    WAL - 6,4 - 18,7 - 0,7 - 1,7 - 72,5 - 19,7
    AUT - 3,0 - 0,0 - 8,7 - 1,8 - 86,5 - 5,6
    GEO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    MDA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group E
    POL - 94,8 - 4,4 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,7 - 97,9
    DEN - 2,6 - 4,2 - 20,6 - 14,6 - 58,0 - 11,7
    ROU - 1,5 - 0,0 - 16,5 - 5,6 - 76,4 - 6,5
    MNE - 0,9 - 0,0 - 16,5 - 10,5 - 72,1 - 5,9
    ARM - 0,2 - 0,0 - 2,5 - 4,4 - 92,9 - 1,0
    KAZ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 99,9 - 0,0

    Group F
    ENG - 91,6 - 7,1 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 1,1 - 96,6
    SVK - 6,7 - 21,7 - 23,2 - 5,0 - 43,4 - 28,9
    SVN - 1,1 - 0,0 - 19,3 - 3,9 - 75,7 - 6,9
    SCO - 0,6 - 0,0 - 13,2 - 5,3 - 80,9 - 4,6
    LTU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,6 - 0,5 - 98,9 - 0,2
    MLT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group G
    ESP - 64,5 - 32,9 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,6 - 87,5
    ITA - 35,1 - 63,1 - 0,2 - 0,0 - 1,6 - 79,3
    ISR - 0,4 - 0,0 - 3,6 - 0,1 - 95,9 - 1,5
    ALB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,0 - 99,9 - 0,0
    MKD - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    LIE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group H
    BEL - 77,2 - 17,8 - 0,1 - 0,1 - 4,8 - 89,7
    BIH - 12,0 - 40,2 - 4,0 - 0,8 - 43,0 - 41,3
    GRE - 10,8 - 0,0 - 35,8 - 0,8 - 52,6 - 21,5
    EST - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 0,2 - 99,6 - 0,1
    CYP - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    GIB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group I
    CRO - 73,5 - 16,2 - 1,8 - 0,6 - 7,9 - 85,4
    ISL - 16,6 - 4,6 - 29,0 - 3,4 - 46,4 - 28,5
    TUR - 5,0 - 15,7 - 5,4 - 2,2 - 71,7 - 17,6
    UKR - 4,9 - 3,2 - 15,1 - 2,8 - 74,0 - 11,7
    FIN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    KOS - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    ReplyDelete
  11. -- CAF --
    You see here the effects of the Africa Cup in January and quite a lot of CAF-friendlies.
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    3: 2nd-4th place in group

    Group A
    COD - 56,2 - 43,8
    TUN - 41,6 - 58,4
    GUI - 1,6 - 98,4
    LBY - 0,6 - 99,4

    Group B
    NGA - 71,9 - 28,1
    CMR - 20,1 - 79,9
    ALG - 6,2 - 93,8
    ZAM - 1,8 - 98,2

    Group C
    CIV - 68,9 - 31,1
    MAR - 20,7 - 79,3
    GAB - 5,5 - 94,5
    MLI - 4,9 - 95,1

    Group D
    SEN - 37,5 - 62,5
    RSA - 31,3 - 68,7
    BFA - 30,2 - 69,8
    CPV - 1,0 - 99,0

    Group E
    EGY - 81,4 - 18,6
    UGA - 12,0 - 88,0
    GHA - 5,7 - 94,3
    CGO - 0,9 - 99,1

    -- AFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-2nd place in group
    3: 3rd place in group
    4: 4th-6th place in group
    5: winner 5th place play-off
    6: winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    8: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col7/col5)
    9: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col7)

    Group A
    IRN - 98,2 - 1,5 - 0,3 - 1,1 - 73,3 - 1,0 - 90,9 - 99,2
    KOR - 70,7 - 24,8 - 4,5 - 14,2 - 57,3 - 8,8 - 62,0 - 79,5
    UZB - 28,7 - 53,3 - 18,0 - 25,4 - 47,7 - 15,1 - 59,4 - 43,8
    SYR - 2,3 - 16,3 - 81,4 - 7,8 - 47,9 - 4,4 - 56,4 - 6,7
    CHN - 0,1 - 3,2 - 96,7 - 1,5 - 46,9 - 0,6 - 40,0 - 0,7
    QAT - 0,0 - 0,9 - 99,1 - 0,4 - 44,4 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    JPN - 86,9 - 12,8 - 0,3 - 7,0 - 54,7 - 3,8 - 54,3 - 90,7
    KSA - 63,7 - 34,0 - 2,3 - 15,6 - 45,9 - 7,5 - 48,1 - 71,2
    AUS - 48,7 - 48,6 - 2,7 - 25,4 - 52,3 - 16,4 - 64,6 - 65,1
    UAE - 0,7 - 4,6 - 94,7 - 1,6 - 34,8 - 1,1 - 68,8 - 1,8
    IRQ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    THA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONCACAF --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-3rd place in group
    3: 4th place in group
    4: 5th-6th place in group
    5: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Hexagonal
    MEX - 99,1 - 0,9 - 0,0 - 0,5 - 55,6 - 99,6
    CRC - 87,7 - 9,1 - 3,2 - 4,0 - 44,0 - 91,7
    USA - 65,8 - 22,2 - 12,0 - 11,2 - 50,5 - 77,0
    PAN - 33,1 - 39,4 - 27,5 - 15,7 - 39,8 - 48,8
    HON - 11,3 - 21,7 - 67,0 - 8,1 - 37,3 - 19,4
    TRI - 3,0 - 6,7 - 90,3 - 1,8 - 26,9 - 4,8

    -- OFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd-3rd place in group
    4: winner 1st place play-off
    5: winner 1st place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col4/col2)
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    7: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col6/col4)

    Group A
    NZL - 100,0 - 0,0 - 90,8 - 90,8 - 13,7 - 15,1
    NCL - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    FIJ - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    SOL - 34,5 - 65,5 - 2,0 - 5,8 - 0,1 - 5,0
    PNG - 39,4 - 60,6 - 3,8 - 9,6 - 0,0 - 0,0
    TAH - 26,1 - 73,9 - 3,4 - 13,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONMEBOL --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-4th place in group
    3: 5th place in group
    4: 6th-10th place in group
    5: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Group
    BRA - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0
    COL - 79,3 - 15,3 - 5,4 - 13,3 - 86,9 - 92,6
    CHI - 76,5 - 17,7 - 5,8 - 15,9 - 89,8 - 92,4
    URU - 66,8 - 25,3 - 7,9 - 20,3 - 80,2 - 87,1
    ARG - 67,2 - 19,7 - 13,1 - 18,3 - 92,9 - 85,5
    ECU - 4,9 - 9,3 - 85,8 - 8,4 - 90,3 - 13,3
    PER - 3,9 - 10,2 - 85,9 - 8,3 - 81,4 - 12,2
    PAR - 1,4 - 2,5 - 96,1 - 1,7 - 68,0 - 3,1
    BOL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    VEN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- winner intercontinental play-offs --
    CONCACAF 41,3 - AFC 58,7
    CONMEBOL 86,2 - OFC 13,8

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  12. And the static elo-prediction:

    -- UEFA --
    After MD5 (of 10) of the European qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 9 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: France
    B: Portugal
    C: Germany
    D: Republic of Ireland
    E: Poland
    F: England
    G: Spain
    H: Belgium
    I: Croatia

    and as 8 best group numbers 2 (ordered by October 2017 ranking)
    B: Switzerland
    G: Italy
    H: Bosnia-Herzegovina
    A: Netherlands
    F: Slovakia
    C: Northern Ireland
    I: Iceland
    D: Serbia
    Denmark from group E is worst group number 2.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD4:
    Bosnia-Herzegovina (instead of Slovakia) is a seeded number 2
    Iceland (instead of Ukraine) is an unseeded number 2

    -- CAF --
    After MD2 (of 6) of the third round of African qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 5 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: Congo DR
    B: Nigeria
    C: Cote d'Ivoire
    D: Senegal
    E: Egypt

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD2 and before the Africa Cup 2017:
    Congo DR (instead of Tunisia) as group winner in group A

    -- AFC --
    After MD7 (of 10) of the third round of Asian qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    A: Iran and Korea Republic to qualify
    B: Japan and Australia to qualify
    Uzbekistan from group A and Saudi Arabia from group B qualify for the 5th-place play-off. Uzbekistan qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Panama.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD5:
    Saudi Arabia instead of United Arab Emirates as number 3 in group B

    -- CONCACAF --
    After MD4 (of 10) of the hexagonal in CONCACAF qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 3 countries to qualify:
    Mexico, Costa Rica and USA.
    Panama at fourth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Uzbekistan.

    Changes compared to the initial prediction:
    USA and Panama trade places and are now number 3 and 4 respectively in the group

    -- CONMEBOL --
    After MD14 (of 18) of the South American qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    Brazil is qualified, Chile, Colombia and Argentina to qualify.
    Uruguay at fifth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against New Zealand.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD12:
    Colombia climbs to 3rd place and Uruguay drops to 5th place

    -- OFC --
    After MD4 (of 6) of the third round of Oceania qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 2 countries to qualify for the 1st-place play-off:
    A: New Zealand
    B: Tahiti
    New Zealand qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Uruguay.

    No changes compared to the initial prediction.

    -- intercontinental play-offs --
    Uzbekistan qualifies for Russia WC 2018.
    Uruguay qualifies for Russia WC 2018.

    Changes compared to the previous prediction:
    Uzbekistan instead of USA and Uruguay instead of Colombia.

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