CONMEBOL FAs should build a statue for Alejandro Domínguez. Maybe not Brazil and Argentina who always qualify, but the others should. Who is Alejandro Domínguez? President of CONMEBOL and one of guys that come up with the proposed slot allocations for the 2026 World Cup. With South America's depth in quality, they should feel confident of advancing through the global play-offs and send 70% of their members to finals (or 80% when CONMEBOL are hosting). The other confederations don't have such a depth in quality and the CONMEBOL play-off representative should advance most of the times. I don't think South America could have received 7 guaranteed slots, but this is as close as it gets.
I haven't seen an article applying the proposed allocations to the 2014 qualifiers. I'm well aware the qualifying system will change, but I had to start somewhere. So here it goes.
Confederation - 2014 actual allocation - New allocation
I already removed 1 slot from CONMEBOL, as the host slot is taken from the confederation allocation.
Qualified in 2014: Iran, Korea Republic, Japan, Australia.
Jordan lost the AFC-CONMEBOL play-off vs. Uruguay.
New teams: Uzbekistan, Jordan, Qatar, Oman
Global play-off: Iraq (better record than Lebanon).
Qualified in 2014: Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, Algeria
New: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Senegal, Tunisia
Global play-off: Ethiopia (the only team to lose both games in the CAF play-off).
Qualified in 2014: USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico (defeated New Zealand in the CONCACAF-OFC play-off).
New: Panama, Jamaica
Global play-off: Guatemala (best record in the 3rd round).
Qualified in 2014: Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay.
New teams: None.
Global play-off: Venezuela and Peru.
Qualified in 2014: None.
New Zealand lost the CONCACAF-OFC play-off vs. Mexico.
New teams: New Zealand.
Global play-off: New Caledonia.
Qualified in 2014: Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, England, Spain, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, France
New teams: Ukraine, Sweden, Denmark.
Global play-off: UEFA get a play-off spot only when hosting.
Explanation for the UEFA new teams: I had to change the system from 9 winners + play-off between the 8 best runners-up to 9 winners to 5 best runners-up + play-off between the 4 remaining runners-up. Ukraine and Sweden (eliminated by France and Portugal) were in the top 5 best runners-up. This left Croatia and Denmark seeded, with Romania and Iceland not seeded. Croatia and Iceland were paired in "real life", with Croatia advancing, while Denmark had a higher Elo rating than Romania. So, Romania wouldn't have qualified even with the expansion :)
Seeded: Ethiopia (95), Iraq (103)
Unseeded: Guatemala (112), New Caledonia (126)
Seeded: Venezuela (37), Peru (39)
Venezuela and Peru also had the highest Elo ratings of the teams involved, so I chose them as winners.
So, a quick recap:
New teams in italic (those coming through the global play-offs are underlined).
AFC: Iran, Korea Republic, Japan, Australia, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Qatar, Oman
CAF: Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Senegal, Tunisia
CONCACAF: USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Jamaica
CONMEBOL: Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Peru
OFC: New Zealand
UEFA: Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, England, Spain, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, France, Ukraine, Sweden, Denmark
Final draw (all pots seeded by October 2013 FIFA ranking)
Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, England, Chile, USA, Portugal, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 2: Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Sweden, Denmark, Costa Rica, Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras, Panama, Venezuela
Pot 3: Peru, Japan, Tunisia, Iran, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Uzbekistan, Korea Republic, Australia, Cameroon, Senegal, Jordan, New Zealand, Jamaica, Oman, Qatar
And here's a mock draw:
Remember, top 2 from each group advance, not just the group winners as I wrote initially.
Group A: Brazil, Denmark, Egypt
Group B: Italy, Panama, Iran
Group C: Colombia, France, Japan
Group D: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nigeria, Peru
Group E: Greece, Costa Rica, Cameroon
Group F: Belgium, Ghana, Jordan
Group G: Argentina, Russia, Senegal
Group H: Switzerland, Venezuela, Oman
Group I: Germany, Côte d'Ivoire, Qatar
Group J: Uruguay, Croatia, Tunisia
Group K: Spain, Mexico, Australia
Group L: England, Algeria, Uzbekistan
Group M: Netherlands, Honduras, New Zealand
Group N: USA, Ukraine, Korea Republic
Group O: Portugal, Ecuador, Burkina Faso
Group P: Chile, Sweden, Jamaica