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Friday, February 17, 2017

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims

10000 simulations - before and after the draw.

First, remember the pots:



Pot 1: Jordan, Oman, Philippines, Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan, Korea DPR
Pot 2: India, Palestine, Tajikistan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Turkmenistan
Pot 3: Maldives, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Chinese Taipei, Myanmar
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Nepal, Bhutan, Macau

This was the outcome of the draw:

Group A: Kyrgyzstan, India, Myanmar, Macau
Group B: Korea DPR, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Malaysia
Group C: Jordan, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cambodia
Group D: Oman, Palestine, Maldives, Bhutan
Group E: Bahrain, Turkmenistan, Chinese Taipei, Singapore
Group F: Philippines, Tajikistan, Yemen, Nepal

Two runs - the first also simulating the draw, the second using the actual draw.

Hong Kong were hurt the most, as their qualification chances dropped from 61.02% in the first run, to 25.22% in the second round. They went from likely qualifiers to standing on the outside, looking in.

India on the other hand had a great draw, going from "almost there" to likely qualifiers. Granted, looking at differences between the two runs, Myanmar had an even better draw, but it didn't move them to the list of qualifiers.

Other teams happy with the draw are Palestine and Kyrgyzstan.

Philippines are the only top seed that's doesn't have the most chances of qualifying from its group. Tajikistan (second seed) are more likely to advance than the Azkals.

Team - Group - First Run - Second Run - Difference - Pot


Oman D 94.18 98.6 4.42 1
Jordan C 95.96 95.79 -0.17 1
Palestine D 80.04 94.49 14.45 2
Bahrain E 91.78 93.37 1.59 1
Korea DPR B 96.72 91.73 -4.99 1
Kyrgyzstan A 70.6 85.27 14.67 1
Vietnam C 72.81 71.97 -0.84 2
Turkmenistan E 69.43 71.54 2.11 2
Lebanon B 75.49 70.45 -5.04 3
Tajikistan F 67.75 67.81 0.06 2
Philippines F 70.37 64.38 -5.99 1
India A 47.37 62.75 15.38 2
Yemen F 49.97 59.56 9.59 3
Myanmar A 25.69 49.78 24.09 3
Singapore E 28.71 32.08 3.37 4
Afghanistan C 41.46 31.09 -10.37 3
Hong Kong B 61.02 25.22 -35.8 2
Malaysia B 27.52 12.6 -14.92 4
Nepal F 8.38 8.25 -0.13 4
Maldives D 13.75 6.8 -6.95 3
Chinese Taipei E 6.94 3.01 -3.93 3
Macau A 0.82 2.2 1.38 4
Cambodia C 2.93 1.15 -1.78 4
Bhutan D 0.31 0.11 -0.2 4

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

1 comment:

  1. thank you Edgar, very interesting information

    ReplyDelete