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Friday, June 16, 2017

FIFA Ranking: July 2017 preview

Overdue, I know (so I've been told by e-mail). With deadlines at work and end of school year events for my kids, there's little time for the blog these days.

Anyway, FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 July.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.


Germany could overtake Brazil on top of the pile, but it only happened in 17.15% of the sims.

Four team will improve their best ever ranking:

Poland (at least 7 - 10 in June 2017)
Northern Ireland (at least 24 - 25 in June 2016)
Congo DR (at least 31 - 37 in February 2017)
Mauritania (at least 82 - 85 in December 1995)

For will return to their worst ever ranking (or drop even lower):

Netherlands (at most 32 - 32 in April 2017): 72.71% to drop further.
USA (at most 36 - 36 in July 2012): 86.76% to drop further.
Kuwait (at most 172 - 172 in November 2016)
Liechtenstein (at most 189 - 189 in November 2016)

Four will drop to new lows:

Finland (at most 109 - 108 in June 2017)
Latvia (at most 129 - 124 in April 2017)
Sudan (at most 163 - 158 in June 2017)
Malta (at most 189 - 183 in December 2016)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

India (at least 98 - 94 in February 1996) - 21 years and 5 months
Iran (at least 25 - 23 in May 2006) - 11 years and 2 months
Andorra (at least 130 - 129 in May 2006) - 11 years and 2 months
Djibouti (at least 186 - 185 in November 2009) - 7 years and 8 months
Chinese Taipei (at least 148 - 147 in March 2011) - 6 years and 4 months


Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Côte d'Ivoire (at most 55 - 58 in September 2004) - 12 years and 10 months
Cape Verde Islands (at most 112 - 114 in May 2010) - 7 years and 2 months
Hungary (at most 56 - 62 in August 2010) - 6 years and 11 months
Namibia (at most 147 - 153 in June 2011) - 6 years and 1 month
Ethiopia (at most 135 - 138 in May 2012) - 5 years and 2 months

Poland will be ranked above France and Spain for the first time ever.
USA will be ranked below Iran and Congo DR for the first time ever.
Ukraine and Congo DR will be ranked above Netherlands for the first time ever.
Haiti will be ranked above Côte d'Ivoire and Hungary for the first time ever.
Norway will be ranked below Qatar and Mauritania for the first time ever.
Palestine will be ranked above Jordan and Finland for the first time ever.

Sweden will be ranked above Netherlands after 17 years and 1 month.

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking


Brazil 2 1 1.172
Germany 7 1 2.203
Argentina 4 2 2.852
Switzerland 6 3 4.404
Poland 7 4 5.478
Chile 12 2 6.826
Portugal 12 2 7.018
Colombia 8 6 7.279
France 9 7 8.398
Belgium 10 8 9.407
Spain 12 9 11.140
Italy 13 12 12.407
England 15 13 13.423
Mexico 22 9 14.154
Peru 16 14 14.569
Croatia 17 15 15.583
Uruguay 18 16 16.698
Sweden 20 17 18.041
Iceland 21 18 19.047
Wales 22 19 20.063
Slovakia 23 20 21.076
Northern Ireland 24 21 22.117
Iran 25 23 23.125
Egypt 26 24 24.210
Ukraine 28 25 25.326
Costa Rica 29 26 26.333
Senegal 30 27 27.403
Congo DR 31 28 28.411
Republic of Ireland 32 29 29.447
Bosnia and Herzegovina 33 30 30.521
Ecuador 34 31 31.676
Cameroon 41 14 32.202
Netherlands 35 32 32.912
Turkey 36 33 33.953
Tunisia 37 34 35.047
Paraguay 38 35 36.104
USA 40 36 37.201
Austria 41 37 38.492
Greece 42 38 39.516
Nigeria 43 40 40.662
Czech Republic 44 41 41.781
Romania 45 42 42.781
Serbia 45 42 42.781
Australia 61 13 44.566
Burkina Faso 47 44 44.960
Japan 48 45 46.177
Denmark 49 46 47.177
Algeria 50 47 48.180
Ghana 52 36 48.928
Russia 69 17 49.287
Haiti 52 48 49.416
Korea Republic 53 50 51.017
Panama 54 51 52.083
Slovenia 55 52 53.198
Bulgaria 56 53 54.320
Montenegro 56 53 54.320
Côte d'Ivoire 58 55 56.434
Hungary 59 56 57.436
South Africa 60 57 58.462
Scotland 61 58 59.462
Mali 62 60 60.687
Morocco 63 61 61.695
Saudi Arabia 64 62 62.695
Albania 65 63 63.897
Uzbekistan 66 64 64.898
Guinea 67 65 65.981
Bolivia 68 66 66.982
Venezuela 69 67 67.985
Israel 70 69 69.022
Belarus 71 70 70.026
Honduras 72 71 71.026
Armenia 74 72 72.263
Uganda 75 73 73.263
Jamaica 77 72 73.630
United Arab Emirates 76 74 75.028
China PR 78 76 76.080
Trinidad and Tobago 79 77 77.104
Qatar 80 78 78.104
Azerbaijan 81 79 79.127
Mauritania 82 80 80.130
Syria 83 81 81.130
Sierra Leone 84 82 82.150
Kenya 85 83 83.522
Guinea-Bissau 86 84 84.522
Congo 87 85 85.607
Libya 88 86 86.622
Norway 90 87 87.655
Curaçao 96 74 87.924
Faroe Islands 91 88 88.962
Gabon 92 89 90.239
Benin 95 90 91.972
Palestine 96 91 93.042
Zambia 97 90 93.458
Mozambique 104 88 93.508
Madagascar 101 86 94.085
Cyprus 97 93 94.855
India 98 95 97.128
Estonia 100 97 98.409
Lithuania 101 98 99.409
Canada 102 99 100.419
Guatemala 105 101 102.192
El Salvador 106 102 103.192
Iraq 106 102 103.192
Nicaragua 108 100 104.354
New Zealand 122 38 104.358
Malawi 117 97 105.732
Kazakhstan 108 104 105.950
Suriname 109 105 107.118
Zimbabwe 122 100 108.120
Jordan 110 107 108.920
Togo 111 108 110.021
Finland 112 109 111.163
Georgia 113 110 112.356
Korea DPR 114 111 113.367
Cape Verde Islands 116 112 114.492
Niger 117 113 115.598
Antigua and Barbuda 118 115 116.662
Equatorial Guinea 119 116 117.738
Central African Republic 120 117 118.759
Oman 120 117 118.759
Burundi 122 119 121.112
Bahrain 123 122 122.482
Lebanon 124 123 123.482
St. Kitts and Nevis 124 123 123.482
Tanzania 138 112 124.490
Philippines 127 125 125.945
Kyrgyzstan 128 126 126.945
Rwanda 128 126 126.945
Andorra 130 128 128.945
Latvia 131 129 130.062
Thailand 132 130 131.207
Swaziland 133 131 132.305
Botswana 140 123 132.835
Vietnam 135 132 133.409
FYR Macedonia 136 133 134.427
Luxembourg 137 134 135.448
Ethiopia 139 135 136.943
Turkmenistan 140 137 137.955
Comoros 142 139 139.708
Angola 153 131 140.728
Maldives 143 140 140.806
New Caledonia 144 141 141.829
South Sudan 144 141 141.829
Hong Kong 146 143 143.944
Yemen 146 143 143.944
Chinese Taipei 148 145 146.293
Lesotho 151 135 146.466
Tahiti 149 146 147.347
Tajikistan 150 148 148.985
Liberia 152 149 150.761
Namibia 159 147 150.808
Chad 154 151 152.342
Puerto Rico 155 152 153.342
Solomon Islands 156 153 154.406
Mauritius 159 136 154.761
Afghanistan 157 154 155.406
Myanmar 158 155 156.546
Moldova 159 156 157.739
Grenada 180 150 158.268
Dominican Republic 161 159 159.710
Guyana 162 160 160.880
Gambia 164 161 162.100
Papua New Guinea 165 162 163.100
Bhutan 166 163 164.237
Cuba 166 163 164.237
Sudan 166 163 164.237
Belize 170 166 167.443
Malaysia 170 166 167.443
Singapore 172 168 169.443
Nepal 173 169 170.681
Laos 174 170 171.681
Barbados 183 160 171.830
Aruba 175 171 173.006
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 182 160 173.266
Cambodia 176 172 174.052
Kuwait 176 172 174.052
Indonesia 178 174 176.073
São Tomé e Príncipe 180 176 177.590
Kosovo 182 178 179.028
Fiji 183 179 180.317
Macau 184 181 181.657
Bermuda 185 182 183.230
St. Lucia 194 163 183.994
American Samoa 186 183 184.584
Cook Islands 186 183 184.584
Djibouti 186 183 184.584
Dominica 191 176 184.629
Brunei Darussalam 189 186 187.784
Guam 189 186 187.784
Seychelles 194 158 188.597
Bangladesh 191 188 190.036
Liechtenstein 192 189 191.036
Malta 192 189 191.036
Samoa 194 192 193.352
Vanuatu 195 194 194.498
Timor-Leste 196 196 196.000
Sri Lanka 197 197 197.000
Mongolia 198 198 198.000
US Virgin Islands 199 199 199.000
Pakistan 200 200 200.000
Montserrat 201 201 201.000
Cayman Islands 202 202 202.000
Turks and Caicos Islands 202 202 202.000
San Marino 204 204 204.000
British Virgin Islands 205 205 205.000
Anguilla 206 206 206.000
Bahamas 206 206 206.000
Eritrea 206 206 206.000
Gibraltar 206 206 206.000
Somalia 206 206 206.000
Tonga 206 206 206.000

Min/max points - again based on sims.

June Rank - Country - June Points - July Min Points - July Max Points


1 Brazil 1715 1603 1603
2 Argentina 1626 1413 1413
3 Germany 1511 1260 1637
4 Chile 1422 1099 1436
5 Colombia 1366 1208 1208
6 France 1332 1199 1199
7 Belgium 1292 1194 1194
8 Portugal 1267 1103 1426
9 Switzerland 1263 1329 1329
10 Poland 1198 1319 1319
10 Spain 1198 1114 1114
12 Italy 1193 1059 1059
13 England 1119 1051 1051
13 Wales 1119 922 922
15 Peru 1108 1014 1014
16 Uruguay 1099 995 995
17 Mexico 1050 897 1183
18 Croatia 1033 1007 1007
19 Costa Rica 913 839 839
20 Egypt 903 866 866
21 Slovakia 883 917 917
22 Iceland 877 927 927
23 USA 861 724 752
24 Ecuador 858 791 791
25 Turkey 855 779 779
26 Republic of Ireland 854 816 816
27 Senegal 839 831 831
28 Northern Ireland 837 897 897
29 Bosnia and Herzegovina 835 815 815
30 Iran 829 893 893
31 Netherlands 820 782 782
32 Cameroon 811 716 1026
33 Hungary 802 616 616
34 Sweden 793 933 933
35 Austria 750 723 723
36 Paraguay 748 753 753
37 Ukraine 737 843 843
38 Nigeria 730 715 715
39 Congo DR 728 823 823
40 Greece 726 716 716
41 Tunisia 705 764 764
41 Burkina Faso 705 698 698
43 Korea Republic 703 662 662
44 Czech Republic 690 714 714
45 Japan 689 684 684
46 Romania 686 713 713
47 Côte d'Ivoire 685 631 631
48 Australia 681 608 1054
49 Ghana 678 665 731
50 Serbia 666 713 713
51 Denmark 660 683 683
52 Montenegro 647 643 643
53 Algeria 636 677 677
53 Saudi Arabia 636 601 601
55 Israel 635 512 512
56 Slovenia 631 652 652
56 Morocco 631 604 604
58 Venezuela 630 521 521
59 Panama 626 653 653
60 Bulgaria 615 643 643
61 Scotland 603 612 612
62 Uzbekistan 582 579 579
63 Russia 561 518 955
64 Haiti 554 667 667
65 South Africa 547 613 613
66 Mali 544 607 607
66 Albania 544 583 583
68 Armenia 527 480 480
69 Honduras 517 499 499
70 Curaçao 492 359 472
71 Uganda 478 476 476
72 Guinea 476 541 541
73 Bolivia 473 532 532
74 Kenya 463 408 408
75 United Arab Emirates 450 459 459
76 Azerbaijan 439 427 427
77 Trinidad and Tobago 436 436 436
77 Syria 436 423 423
79 Jamaica 435 442 484
80 Faroe Islands 431 376 376
81 Benin 427 366 366
82 China PR 425 441 441
83 Belarus 419 503 503
84 Cape Verde Islands 418 284 284
85 Congo 412 399 399
86 Gabon 409 373 373
87 Norway 391 391 391
88 Qatar 374 435 435
89 St. Kitts and Nevis 362 255 255
90 Swaziland 361 232 232
91 Cyprus 356 358 358
92 Libya 351 396 396
93 Antigua and Barbuda 349 276 276
94 Namibia 345 149 180
95 Guatemala 344 320 320
95 New Zealand 344 258 729
97 Madagascar 341 331 396
98 Estonia 337 334 334
99 Zambia 335 347 369
100 India 331 341 341
100 Nicaragua 331 305 328
100 Kazakhstan 331 308 308
103 Guinea-Bissau 330 407 407
104 Mauritania 327 425 425
104 Lithuania 327 333 333
106 Mozambique 326 323 384
106 El Salvador 326 319 319
108 Finland 323 293 293
109 Canada 318 331 331
109 Jordan 318 300 300
109 Equatorial Guinea 318 272 272
112 Togo 317 296 296
113 Sierra Leone 309 415 415
114 Korea DPR 307 288 288
115 Zimbabwe 303 260 330
116 Palestine 294 364 364
117 Malawi 287 278 340
118 Oman 285 271 271
119 Suriname 284 305 305
120 Iraq 280 319 319
121 Botswana 273 204 255
122 Georgia 271 290 290
122 Latvia 271 242 242
124 Yemen 268 192 192
125 Ethiopia 265 215 215
126 Philippines 251 249 249
127 Thailand 249 235 235
128 Rwanda 246 248 248
129 Central African Republic 237 271 271
130 Niger 236 283 283
131 Vietnam 235 231 231
132 Kyrgyzstan 233 248 248
133 Bahrain 232 257 257
133 Puerto Rico 232 167 167
135 Lebanon 228 255 255
136 FYR Macedonia 218 228 228
137 Tajikistan 205 179 179
138 Guyana 194 135 135
139 Tanzania 193 215 285
140 Lesotho 190 174 219
141 Angola 188 170 232
141 Belize 188 119 119
143 Turkmenistan 187 214 214
144 Comoros 186 203 203
145 Luxembourg 184 223 223
145 Dominican Republic 184 144 144
147 South Sudan 183 196 196
148 Burundi 179 262 262
148 Hong Kong 179 192 192
150 Mauritius 175 151 215
151 Tahiti 174 181 181
151 Liberia 174 172 172
153 Papua New Guinea 169 130 130
154 Chad 168 168 168
155 Malaysia 148 119 119
156 Maldives 146 199 199
157 Singapore 143 118 118
158 Afghanistan 140 160 160
158 Sudan 140 123 123
160 Chinese Taipei 136 185 185
161 Moldova 135 154 154
162 New Caledonia 133 196 196
163 Myanmar 132 157 157
164 Grenada 131 94 171
165 Cuba 124 123 123
166 Bhutan 123 123 123
167 Gambia 120 132 132
168 Kuwait 118 111 111
169 Nepal 116 117 117
169 Barbados 116 84 135
171 Aruba 114 113 113
172 Laos 113 116 116
173 Kosovo 112 90 90
174 Cambodia 107 111 111
175 Indonesia 105 110 110
176 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 104 88 139
177 St. Lucia 102 52 129
178 São Tomé e Príncipe 98 98 98
179 Vanuatu 94 51 51
180 Solomon Islands 90 162 162
181 Fiji 87 87 87
182 Malta 84 56 56
183 Guam 82 62 62
184 Macau 77 82 82
185 Bermuda 75 72 72
186 Andorra 69 246 246
186 Liechtenstein 69 56 56
188 Brunei Darussalam 65 62 62
189 American Samoa 64 64 64
189 Cook Islands 64 64 64
189 Samoa 64 53 53
192 Bangladesh 62 60 60
193 Dominica 61 56 107
194 Seychelles 57 51 154
195 Djibouti 53 64 64
196 Timor-Leste 51 42 42
197 Sri Lanka 34 34 34
197 Mongolia 34 30 30
199 US Virgin Islands 26 26 26
200 Pakistan 24 24 24
201 Montserrat 20 20 20
201 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 13 13
203 Cayman Islands 13 13 13
204 San Marino 12 12 12
205 British Virgin Islands 6 6 6
206 Anguilla 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Gibraltar 0 0 0
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

57 comments:

  1. If Iceland go 20th, they'll equal their best ever. If they go higher, they'll better their best ever ranking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Iceland are already guaranteed 18th place in the July ranking. Congrats from Croatia, you beat us fair and square.

      P.S. I still cannot forgive you for that goal in 90'+5' against Austria that pushed Portugal on our way in last 16 of the EURO 2016. :'(

      Delete
    2. Sorry, I meant 19th place. Russia would need a miracle to overtake you.

      Delete
    3. That late winner vs. Austria is the biggest climax one can ever feel. The feeling.

      Delete
    4. You would've qualified to last 16 even without that goal. And then Croatia would beat you. :)

      Delete
  2. Why has Belgium - Czech Republic friendly been removed from calculations? Another glitch in the FIFA website?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was an unofficial game, not registered with FIFA.

      Delete
    2. Why? Both teams made 6 subs, according to this report: http://www.goal.com/en/match/belgium-vs-czech-republic/2422030/lineups?ICID=MP_MS_2

      Delete
    3. The game wasnt registered with FIFA in time.

      Delete
    4. Most glitches on FIFA's site were repaired within a few days. I suppose the friendlies missing now (like BEL-CZE and UKR-MLT) from the fixture list are not counting for the ranking. But for final comfirmation we have to wait for the July ranking to be published.

      Delete
    5. Ukraine - Malta is not included because Ukraine made 10 subtitutions. But the reasoning behind the Belgium - Czech Republic exclusion is very unclear to me.

      Delete
    6. Like I said, the game wasnt supposed to be official so it wasnt registered with FIFA. A few hours before the game it was decided to do only 6 subs but it was too late to get an official FIFA referee.

      Delete
    7. That game was visible on the FIFA website at least a month before it started, maybe even longer. How is that possible if the game wasn't "registered with FIFA"?

      Delete
  3. When will be a new 2018 World Cup simulation ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Poland will be in TOP7 (maybe in TOP5)...
    I'm Pole and I still can't believe it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great performance by Poland so far. If they keep winning, Poland will also be a sure seed at the World Cup finals draw in December.

      Delete
    2. Surely we gonna be a seeded one, I can say that we will be considered as one of the dark horses of the 2018 WC ;]

      Delete
  5. Nice to see India in top 100 ... Macau match is coming up...there is very good chance to improve their best ever ranking of 93

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeh India could be at 97 in july. India is playing in Champions cup before their game with Macau. Pretty good chance for them to clinch 93 in August.

      Delete
  6. Here are (in a few parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup 2018 qualifying after the June matchdays from last week. The results of all remaining scheduled matches are determined by drawing the number of goals each team scores in a scheduled match from ClubElo's expected goals formula (a probability distribution function which uses elo's home team win expectancy as the only parameter). A set of results for all remaining scheduled matches is called a simulation.
    The presented probabilities [%] are determined after 1000 simulations.

    -- UEFA --
    columns:
    1: group
    2: 2nd place in group is seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    3: 2nd place in group is unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group is worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2

    A - 84,3 - 10,9 - 4,8
    B - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    C - 16,5 - 69,9 - 13,6
    D - 17,7 - 60,8 - 21,5
    E - 3,3 - 56,1 - 40,6
    F - 43,7 - 44,5 - 11,8
    G - 96,9 - 2,6 - 0,5
    H - 10,4 - 86,1 - 3,5
    I - 27,2 - 69,1 - 3,7

    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    5: 2nd place in group and worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2
    6: 3rd-6th place in group
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+0.7*col3+0.3*col4)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017

    Group A
    FRA - 74,5 - 20,8 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 4,4 - 89,1 - -6,6
    SWE - 18,9 - 48,9 - 7,6 - 2,2 - 22,4 - 55,4 - +33,5
    NED - 5,9 - 14,6 - 2,4 - 1,9 - 75,2 - 16,8 - +5,4
    BUL - 0,7 - 0,0 - 0,8 - 0,4 - 98,1 - 0,9 - -3,5
    BLR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,0 - 99,9 - 0,0 - 0,0
    LUX - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    SUI - 57,7 - 42,3 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 87,3 - -1,5
    POR - 42,3 - 57,7 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 82,7 - +3,5
    HUN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -0,9
    LVA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    FRO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    AND - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group C
    GER - 98,8 - 1,2 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,6 - -0,1
    NIR - 1,1 - 15,3 - 56,4 - 7,8 - 19,4 - 28,7 - +4,8
    CZE - 0,1 - 0,0 - 13,5 - 5,6 - 80,8 - 4,2 - -2,9
    AZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 99,8 - 0,0 - -0,3
    NOR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    SMR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group D
    IRL - 46,7 - 0,3 - 23,2 - 7,1 - 22,7 - 53,9 - -11,4
    SRB - 44,9 - 0,0 - 30,1 - 6,9 - 18,1 - 53,9 - +1,7
    WAL - 6,5 - 17,4 - 0,0 - 4,1 - 72,0 - 18,7 - -1,0
    AUT - 1,9 - 0,0 - 7,5 - 3,4 - 87,2 - 4,2 - -1,4
    GEO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    MDA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group E
    POL - 97,3 - 2,7 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,2 - +1,3
    DEN - 1,5 - 0,6 - 30,0 - 22,9 - 45,0 - 10,9 - -0,8
    MNE - 1,2 - 0,0 - 18,7 - 13,3 - 66,8 - 6,8 - +0,9
    ROU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 7,2 - 3,6 - 89,2 - 2,2 - -4,3
    ARM - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 0,8 - 99,0 - 0,1 - -0,9
    KAZ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group F
    ENG - 83,8 - 14,1 - 0,3 - 0,3 - 1,5 - 93,8 - -2,8
    SVK - 15,1 - 29,6 - 22,5 - 5,4 - 27,4 - 42,6 - +13,7
    SVN - 1,0 - 0,0 - 13,5 - 3,1 - 82,4 - 5,1 - -1,8
    SCO - 0,1 - 0,0 - 8,2 - 2,9 - 88,8 - 2,6 - -2,0
    LTU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 99,9 - 0,0 - -0,2
    MLT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group G
    ESP - 66,9 - 32,8 - 0,3 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 90,0 - +2,5
    ITA - 33,1 - 64,1 - 1,8 - 0,5 - 0,5 - 78,5 - -0,8
    ISR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 0,0 - 99,7 - 0,1 - -1,4
    ALB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 0,0 - 99,8 - 0,1 - +0,1
    MKD - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    LIE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    ReplyDelete
  7. Group H
    BEL - 88,8 - 8,7 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,5 - 94,9 - +5,2
    GRE - 8,9 - 0,2 - 53,0 - 1,7 - 36,2 - 24,9 - +3,4
    BIH - 2,3 - 1,5 - 33,1 - 1,8 - 61,3 - 13,3 - -28,0
    EST - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -0,1
    CYP - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    GIB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group I
    CRO - 53,5 - 25,7 - 2,6 - 0,3 - 17,9 - 72,3 - -13,1
    ISL - 26,5 - 1,0 - 36,0 - 1,2 - 35,3 - 38,0 - +9,5
    TUR - 9,8 - 0,3 - 16,3 - 0,9 - 72,7 - 14,9 - -2,7
    UKR - 10,2 - 0,2 - 14,2 - 1,3 - 74,1 - 14,6 - +2,9
    FIN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    KOS - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CAF --
    No CAF WC-qualifiers played in this week, but you see here the effects of the first round of the AFCON 2019 qualifiers and some CAF-friendlies.
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    3: 2nd-4th place in group
    4: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017

    Group A
    COD - 55,6 - 44,4 - -0,6
    TUN - 42,7 - 57,3 - +1,1
    GUI - 1,4 - 98,6 - -0,2
    LBY - 0,3 - 99,7 - -0,3

    Group B
    NGA - 64,5 - 35,5 - -7,4
    CMR - 24,6 - 75,4 - +4,5
    ALG - 8,6 - 91,4 - +2,4
    ZAM - 2,3 - 97,7 - +0,5

    Group C
    CIV - 67,7 - 32,3 - -1,2
    MAR - 18,9 - 81,1 - -1,8
    MLI - 7,6 - 92,4 - +2,7
    GAB - 5,8 - 94,2 - +0,3

    Group D
    SEN - 36,0 - 64,0 - -1,5
    RSA - 35,2 - 64,8 - +3,9
    BFA - 28,1 - 71,9 - -2,1
    CPV - 0,7 - 99,3 - -0,3

    Group E
    EGY - 75,5 - 24,5 - -5,9
    UGA - 17,3 - 82,7 - +5,3
    GHA - 6,4 - 93,6 - +0,7
    CGO - 0,8 - 99,2 - -0,1


    -- AFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-2nd place in group
    3: 3rd place in group
    4: 4th-6th place in group
    5: winner 5th place play-off
    6: winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    8: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col7/col5)
    9: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col7)
    10: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017 (after MD7)

    Group A
    IRN - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +0,8
    KOR - 61,5 - 33,7 - 4,8 - 21,3 - 63,2 - 12,6 - 59,2 - 74,1 - -5,4
    UZB - 37,9 - 47,1 - 15,0 - 23,6 - 50,1 - 13,7 - 58,1 - 51,6 - +7,8
    SYR - 0,6 - 13,3 - 86,1 - 6,3 - 47,4 - 3,3 - 52,4 - 3,9 - -2,8
    QAT - 0,0 - 4,1 - 95,9 - 1,5 - 36,6 - 0,7 - 46,7 - 0,7 - +0,7
    CHN - 0,0 - 1,8 - 98,2 - 0,9 - 50,0 - 0,6 - 66,7 - 0,6 - -0,1

    Group B
    JPN - 79,4 - 20,6 - 0,0 - 11,8 - 57,3 - 7,6 - 64,4 - 87,0 - -3,7
    AUS - 69,3 - 30,7 - 0,0 - 14,6 - 47,6 - 9,5 - 65,1 - 78,8 - +7,6
    KSA - 51,3 - 48,5 - 0,2 - 20,0 - 41,2 - 9,6 - 48,0 - 60,9 - -4,2
    UAE - 0,0 - 0,2 - 99,8 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - -1,8
    THA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    IRQ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONCACAF --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-3rd place in group
    3: 4th place in group
    4: 5th-6th place in group
    5: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017 after MD4

    Hexagonal
    MEX - 99,8 - 0,2 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,8 - +0,2
    CRC - 90,3 - 8,0 - 1,7 - 4,4 - 55,0 - 94,7 - +3,0
    USA - 81,0 - 13,9 - 5,1 - 7,3 - 52,5 - 88,3 - +11,3
    PAN - 24,1 - 58,3 - 17,6 - 23,5 - 40,3 - 47,6 - -1,2
    HON - 4,3 - 14,6 - 81,1 - 5,8 - 39,7 - 10,1 - -9,3
    TRI - 0,5 - 5,0 - 94,5 - 1,4 - 28,0 - 1,9 - -2,9

    ReplyDelete
  8. -- OFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd-3rd place in group
    4: winner 1st place play-off
    5: winner 1st place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col4/col2)
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    7: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col6/col4)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017 after MD4

    Group A
    NZL - 100,0 - 0,0 - 91,8 - 91,8 - 14,6 - 15,9 - +0,9
    NCL - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    FIJ - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    SOL - 100,0 - 0,0 - 8,2 - 8,2 - 0,1 - 1,2 - 0,0
    TAH - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    PNG - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONMEBOL --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-4th place in group
    3: 5th place in group
    4: 6th-10th place in group
    5: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to March 2017

    Group
    BRA - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    COL - 81,9 - 13,2 - 4,9 - 10,9 - 82,6 - 92,8 - +0,2
    CHI - 76,3 - 17,3 - 6,4 - 15,1 - 87,3 - 91,4 - -1,0
    ARG - 68,2 - 20,9 - 10,9 - 19,2 - 91,9 - 87,4 - +1,9
    URU - 63,2 - 27,6 - 9,2 - 22,2 - 80,4 - 85,4 - -1,7
    ECU - 5,5 - 10,7 - 83,8 - 9,3 - 86,9 - 14,8 - +1,5
    PER - 3,9 - 8,1 - 88,0 - 7,2 - 88,9 - 11,1 - +1,1
    PAR - 1,0 - 2,2 - 96,8 - 1,4 - 63,6 - 2,4 - -0,7
    BOL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    VEN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- winner intercontinental play-offs --
    CONCACAF 42,4 - AFC 57,6
    CONMEBOL 85,3 - OFC 14,7

    ReplyDelete
  9. And the static elo-prediction:

    -- UEFA --
    After MD6 (of 10) of the European qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 9 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: France
    B: Portugal
    C: Germany
    D: Republic of Ireland
    E: Poland
    F: England
    G: Spain
    H: Belgium
    I: Iceland

    and as 8 best group numbers 2 (ordered by October 2017 ranking)
    D: Wales
    B: Switzerland
    G: Italy
    I: Croatia
    A: Sweden
    F: Slovakia
    C: Northern Ireland
    H: Bosnia-Herzegovina
    Denmark from group E is worst group number 2.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD5:
    Iceland is group winner instead of Croatia (seeded number 2)
    Wales (instead of Serbia) is a seeded number 2
    Sweden (instead of the Netherlands) is an unseeded number 2
    Bosnia-Herzegovina becomes an unseeded number 2

    -- CAF --
    After MD2 (of 6) of the third round of African qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 5 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: Congo DR
    B: Cameroon
    C: Cote d'Ivoire
    D: Senegal
    E: Egypt

    Changes compared to the prediction in March:
    Cameroon (instead of Nigeria) as group winner in group B

    -- AFC --
    After MD8 (of 10) of the third round of Asian qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    A: Iran is qualified and Korea Republic to qualify
    B: Japan and Australia to qualify
    Uzbekistan from group A and Saudi Arabia from group B qualify for the 5th-place play-off. Uzbekistan qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Panama.

    No changes compared to the prediction after MD7.

    -- CONCACAF --
    After MD6 (of 10) of the hexagonal in CONCACAF qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 3 countries to qualify:
    Mexico, USA and Costa Rica.
    Panama at fourth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Uzbekistan.

    No changes compared to the prediction after MD4.

    -- CONMEBOL --
    After MD14 (of 18) of the South American qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    Brazil is qualified, Argentina, Chile and Colombia to qualify.
    Uruguay at fifth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against New Zealand.

    No changes compared to the prediction in March

    -- OFC --
    Third round of Oceania qualifying for Russia WC 2018 is finished. For the 1st-place play-off have qualified:
    A: New Zealand
    B: Solomon Islands
    Elo predicts that New Zealand qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Uruguay.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD4:
    Solomon Islands instead of Tahiti as winner of group B

    -- intercontinental play-offs --
    Panama qualifies for Russia WC 2018.
    Uruguay qualifies for Russia WC 2018.

    Changes compared to the previous prediction:
    Panama instead of Uzbekistan.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ed, can you post the match points for Iran for the first time frame? Something doesn't match up in my numbers, so I'm trying to find where I made a mistake.

    Second, can you comment on the fact that the probability of Croatia winning the group is twice as high as that of Iceland, but still Iceland is predicted to win the group statically? Shouldn't Iceland's probability to win the group be much higher than 26.5 percent?

    ReplyDelete
  11. matches in first timeframe IRN for June 2017 ranking:
    02-06-2016 MKD 3 061 1.0 0,920 168,360
    07-06-2016 KGZ 3 089 1.0 0,850 226,950
    01-09-2016 QAT 3 120 2.5 0,850 765,000
    06-09-2016 CHN 1 122 2.5 0,850 259,250
    06-10-2016 UZB 3 151 2.5 0,850 962,625
    11-10-2016 KOR 3 153 2.5 0,850 975,375
    10-11-2016 PNG 3 050 1.0 0,850 127,500
    15-11-2016 SYR 1 104 2.5 0,850 221,000
    18-03-2017 IRQ 0 078 1.0 0,850 000,000
    23-03-2017 QAT 3 116 2.5 0,850 739,500
    28-03-2017 CHN 3 114 2.5 0,850 726,750


    First: the static elo-prediction is like doing one simulation with results of all scheduled matches determined by their elo home team win expectancy at the moment the match is played (E) and a simple algorithm:
    if match is a friendly: if E > 0,6339 result 1:0; if E < 0,3661 result 0:1 else result 0:0
    if match is not a friendly: if E > 0,60925 result 1:0; if E < 0,39075 result 0:1 else result 0:0
    The static elo-prediction is just one situation that can occur. I would be worried only if the static situation had a probability of 0 when doing a 1000 simulations.

    With this info shared now more focus on group I: the case of Croatia and Iceland.
    First the E and predicted result for the 4 remaining qualifying matches for CRO:
    CRO-KOS 0,963 1:0
    TUR-CRO 0,551 0:0
    CRO-FIN 0,925 1:0
    UKR-CRO 0,458 0:0
    CRO gets a predicted 8 points from those 4 qualifiers.

    And for ISL:
    FIN-ISL 0,260 0:1
    ISL-UKR 0,730 1:0
    TUR-ISL 0,596 0:0
    ISL-KOS 0,961 1:0
    CRO gets a predicted 10 points from those 4 qualifiers.
    So that illustrates why Iceland is statically predicted to take first spot in the group, as they are both on 13 points at the moment.

    You see that especially TUR-ISL, TUR-CRO and UKR-CRO have an E that lies (very) close to the 0,609 (and thus a Turkey-win instead of a draw) or 0,391 (and thus a Croatia win in Ukraine instead of a draw). Statically that doesn't matter: each match has 1 predicted result conform the algorithm and that set of results leads to Iceland on first spot.
    When performing the simulations a Turkey win in TUR-ISL and TUR-CRO and a Croatia win in UKR-CRO will (very) frequently occur (and the TUR-ISL match has the biggest uncertainty concerning the predicted result as their E is very, very close to 0,609). It all depends on which results come together in each simulated set of matchresults because that ultimately decides the resulting group standing but you can see that Croatia has 2 sure wins and 2 not-so-sure draws; Iceland has only one sure win and 2 not-so-sure wins and 1 not-so-sure draw. That makes Croatia in 1000 simulations statistically group winner with a higher probability than Iceland.

    That's why the simulations are necessary to get a more balanced picture of the respective chances. The static prediction simply can not give that picture. On the other hand, for many readers it will be difficult to interpret the presented probabilities and for them a clear cut static situation gives more information. The static situation based on elo gives a best estimate but doesn't give any insight in the margins of the prediction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks a lot for the Iran points and clarification on the probabilities. My opinion is that if Iceland win their two games in September (Finland away and Ukraine at home), they win the group. BTW, Croatia have never won the group when they were top seeds and I have a feeling that this tradition will continue.

      Delete
  12. if bosnia replace current manager with a competent coach bosnia will qualigy for world cup.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Ed, one of the closest groups is Group D in Europe.
    The Rep Ireland are slight favourites, with Serbia right behind them percentage wise.
    But Serbia have a better goal difference.
    If they match their results, surely Serbia will edge ahead on goal difference, if they finish level on points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will probably boil down to Serbia's trip to Dublin on Tuesday September 5th. A draw or a Serbia win will most likely mean they win the group.

      Delete
  14. Ger, elo thinks you will win against Serbia (E = 0,696, so could also be a draw). And that you will lose at Wales (E = 0,632, so could well be a draw) and that Serbia draws at Austria (E = 0,582, so could well be an Austrian win).
    In short, Austria and Wales will probably have a big say in the outcome of group D. But it goes without saying that you must not lose the Serbian match in Dublin.

    ReplyDelete
  15. If Portugal beat win the confederations cup next week with 2 non-shoot-out wins, where would that land them in the next FIFA ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Equalling their best ever ranking: 3rd.

    ReplyDelete
  17. After the group stage of Confederations Cup we know Portugal will play against Chile and Germany will play against Mexico. So one of the teams (Portugal/Chile) will play in final and the other one will play for the 3rd place (against Germany or Mexico). What are all possible scenarios and are there any chances that Poland will end up on 5th place in July FIFA ranking? (Polish teams' place is dependent on Portugal and Chile results)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Poland will have 1319 points in July. They can be overtaken by Portugal or Chile and lose the 5th spot in the following cases:
      - Portugal win in semi AND Portugal win, PSO win or PSO loss in final against Germany or Mexico
      - Chile win in semi AND Chile win or PSO win in final against Germany or Mexico
      - Portugal PSO win in semi AND Portugal win or PSO win in final against Germany or Mexico
      - Chile PSO win in semi AND Chile win in final against Germany or Mexico
      - Portugal PSO loss in semi AND Portugal win in 3rd place play-off against Germany or Mexico
      In all other cases Poland will be 5th in July, because Mexico can't overtake them and Germany can't drop below them.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ed for swift response! One more question - Portugal play against Chile in semi-final which means one of the teams has to loose. Does it mean that Poland can be sure of at least 6th place right now? What are the scenarions where Poland ends up on the 7th place?

      Delete
    3. Well, there is only one scenario where Poland will finish 7th in July: Portugal PSO loss against Chile AND then a win in the 3rd place play-off against Germany or Mexico AND Chile win against Mexico or Germany in the final.

      Delete
    4. Thanks again Ed for your quick response, I really appreciate it!

      Delete
    5. Can you tell me what does PSO mean?

      Delete
    6. Penalty shootout

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    7. Ed, could you please post the updated ranking including Conferedation Cup results today after the final game Germany - Chile? Thank you in advance!

      Delete
    8. Portugal won in extra time against Mexico. Does it mean that they overtake Poland in the July ranking?

      Delete
  18. Can someone post the full ranking list for July please?

    ReplyDelete
  19. USA going from 23rd to 37 without losing a game yet with Bruce, seems like a odd ranking system

    ReplyDelete
  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  21. This how it will look like on July 6th

    01 Brazil
    02 Germany
    03 Argentina
    04 Switzerland
    05 Poland
    06 Chile
    07 Portugal
    08 Colombia
    09 France
    10 Belgium
    11 Spain
    12 Italy
    13 England
    14 Mexico
    15 Peru

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is before the final in Russia. If Chile wins with Germany without POS then the only change will be Chile ending up on 4th place

      Delete
  22. Not quite. After the final of the Confed Cup this will be the top-20 in the July ranking this Thursday:
    1 Germany 1609
    2 Brazil 1603
    3 Argentina 1413
    4 Portugal 1332
    5 Switzerland 1329
    6 Poland 1319 (best ever; was 10th in June 2017)
    7 Chile 1250
    8 Colombia 1208
    9 France 1199
    10 Belgium 1194
    11 Spain 1114
    12 Italy 1059
    13 England 1051
    14 Peru 1014 (best ever; was 15th in June 2017)
    15 Croatia 1007
    16 Mexico 1003
    17 Uruguay 995
    18 Sweden 933
    19 Iceland 927 (best ever; was 20th in February 2017)
    20 Wales 922

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the CAS, rules in favour of Bolivia giving them the 4 points lost for playing with an elligible player, Chile and Peru, would lose important points that will have them both lower in that list

      Delete
    2. Effects of any CAS-ruling will on the earliest be visible in the August-ranking then, as the deadline for the July ranking was yesterday.
      But as a disclaimer: predictions of rankings are always as accurate as possible, given the information in the FIFA-fixture/results list. And there both awarded Bolivian matches are still registered as 3-0 losses.

      Delete
  23. Germany returns to no.1 but only for one month, Brazil set to take it back in August.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Yeah, it will be close between those two (and Argentina, results permitting) the coming months...

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Ed, can we get the full up to date July rankings? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  26. Ok, official ranking is published:
    http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/rank=276/index.html

    Ed, can we get August ranking preview? I believe there are no official games planned for July. Will there be any changes to the ranking then?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Thanks to 1:7 vs Germany and 0:3 vs Netherlands Brasil will return to #1 :) And Netherlands will drop the their new worst because of losing points earned in semi and 3rd place game on WC-14...

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi,

    Can you guys review my Post with error in Chile fifa rankings.

    https://www.fctables.com/blog/error-in-official-fifa-rankings-in-july-2017/

    Thanks for contact contact[at]fctables.com

    ReplyDelete
  29. As programmers say: "This is not a bug, it's a feature!" :)

    Did you read Ed's comment (21 July)?

    ReplyDelete