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Friday, June 23, 2017

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).


Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

South Africa replaced Senegal (still very tight - less than 1% difference).

AFC: Iran, Japan, Australia, Korea Republic, Saudi Arabia
CAF: Egypt, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, South Africa
CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, USA
CONMEBOL: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay
UEFA: Germany, Poland, England, Spain, France, Belgium, Portugal, Croatia, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Serbia, Iceland

These would be the seeds: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Chile, Poland, Portugal, Colombia.

100% - Brazil
100% - Iran
99.98% - Mexico
99.43% - Germany
98.72% - Poland
94.97% - England
94.59% - Spain
94.45% - Colombia
94.4% - France
94.2% - Chile
94.08% - Costa Rica
93.12% - Belgium
89.6% - USA
89.41% - Japan
88.81% - Argentina
86.55% - Uruguay
85.54% - Portugal
83.36% - Egypt
82.28% - Italy
82.13% - Switzerland
77.66% - Australia
75.84% - Korea Republic
70.37% - Nigeria
67.97% - Côte d'Ivoire
64% - Croatia
59.46% - Saudi Arabia
57.29% - Republic of Ireland
55.7% - Congo DR
50.76% - Serbia
49.03% - Panama
47.39% - Uzbekistan
45.04% - Iceland
42.99% - Tunisia
37.52% - Sweden
36.62% - South Africa
36.47% - Slovakia
35.87% - Senegal
28.8% - Northern Ireland
26.99% - Burkina Faso
26.29% - Greece
20.36% - Cameroon
19.99% - Ukraine
19.19% - Turkey
18.94% - Morocco
17.26% - Wales
16.5% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.91% - Netherlands
14.55% - Denmark
12.09% - New Zealand
12.06% - Honduras
11.72% - Uganda
11.38% - Ecuador
9.61% - Peru
7.67% - Algeria
7.18% - Mali
6.05% - Montenegro
5.91% - Gabon
5.51% - Austria
4.51% - Ghana
4.19% - Slovenia
3.95% - Czech Republic
2.76% - Paraguay
2.6% - Syria
2.58% - Scotland
2.49% - Romania
1.6% - Zambia
1.38% - Bulgaria
1.22% - Trinidad and Tobago
1.09% - Guinea
1.04% - Qatar
0.54% - China PR
0.52% - Cape Verde Islands
0.41% - Congo
0.22% - Libya
0.15% - Solomon Islands
0.09% - United Arab Emirates
0.05% - Armenia
0.02% - Albania
0.02% - Israel
0.01% - Belarus

Top 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:


Slovakia 36.47 23.81 12.66
Sweden 37.52 25.03 12.49
USA 89.6 79.03 10.57
Northern Ireland 28.8 19.51 9.29
Iceland 45.04 36.04 9
Belgium 93.12 84.19 8.93
Australia 77.66 68.75 8.91
Uzbekistan 47.39 41.26 6.13
Portugal 85.54 79.69 5.85
Ukraine 19.99 14.37 5.62

Bottom 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:


Bosnia and Herzegovina 16.5 35.42 -18.92
Croatia 64 79.25 -15.25
Republic of Ireland 57.29 64.65 -7.36
Scotland 2.58 7.6 -5.02
Korea Republic 75.84 80.84 -5
Panama 49.03 53.75 -4.72
Morocco 18.94 23.39 -4.45
Saudi Arabia 59.46 63.87 -4.41
Serbia 50.76 54.46 -3.7
Czech Republic 3.95 7.65 -3.7
 
Looking at the final draw seeds:

99.99% - Brazil
98.10% - Germany
88.80% - Argentina
85.97% - Chile
81.17% - Poland
72.02% - Portugal
50.69% - Colombia
28.11% - France
23.90% - Belgium
22.59% - Mexico
15.07% - Switzerland
14.60% - Spain
6.55% - Wales
6.10% - Italy
5.15% - Peru
0.44% - Uruguay
0.35% - Slovakia
0.12% - England
0.09% - Ukraine
0.07% - Northern Ireland
0.06% - Croatia
0.03% - Bulgaria
0.02% - Ecuador
0.01% - Turkey

Top 5 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:


Portugal 72.02 49.7 22.32
Chile 85.97 72.51 13.46
Belgium 23.9 14.35 9.55
Poland 81.17 72.65 8.52
Colombia 50.69 48.23 2.46

Bottom 5 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:


France 28.11 47.65 -19.54
Mexico 22.59 40.08 -17.49
England 0.12 8 -7.88
Spain 14.6 21.84 -7.24
Peru 5.15 8.15 -3



About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

6 comments:

  1. Great Job!
    I have two questions :
    1- Where is Oceania chances , even if playing against the 5th of south america
    2- May you do the seedings simulations for other pots?

    ReplyDelete
  2. You're wrong... the Netherlands will make it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yep with their amazing, talented Euro 2016 squ... oh wait....

      Delete
  3. Hi Edgar, will you be running updated WCQ numbers prior to the October qualifiers ??

    ReplyDelete