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Friday, June 16, 2017

UEFA Nations League update (16 June 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

See the previous update (31 March 2017). For sims, see here.

Best movers:

3 - Netherlands, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine
2 - Poland, Turkey, Northern Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Cyprus, Belarus

Worst movers:

-4 - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Wales, Republic of Ireland
-3 - Israel
-2 - France, Czech Republic, Hungary

Belarus replace Azerbaijan in League C.

 1  1 Germany                35687
 2  3 Portugal               33675
 3  4 Belgium                33022
 4  2 France                 32488
 5  5 Spain                  32210
 6  7 Italy                  31646
 7  6 England                31291
 8  8 Switzerland            31246
 9 11 Poland                 29262
10  9 Russia                 29258
11 10 Croatia                28299
12 12 Iceland                27435
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13 13 Austria                26598
14 17 Netherlands            26225
15 18 Slovakia               26114
16 19 Sweden                 25906
17 20 Ukraine                25886
18 14 Bosnia and Herzegovina 25740
19 15 Wales                  25609
20 16 Republic of Ireland    25409
21 23 Turkey                 25018
22 24 Northern Ireland       24687
23 21 Czech Republic         24567
24 22 Hungary                24106
----------------------------------
25 26 Slovenia               23508
26 25 Romania                23217
27 28 Denmark                22891
28 30 Albania                22870
29 28 Greece                 22051
30 27 Israel                 21632
31 31 Scotland               21541
32 34 Montenegro             21491
33 32 Serbia                 21166
34 33 Bulgaria               20531
35 35 Norway                 20508
36 38 Cyprus                 18391
37 36 Lithuania              17861
38 37 Finland                17261
39 41 Belarus                17028
----------------------------------
40 39 Azerbaijan             16621
41 40 Estonia                16521
42 43 Georgia                15763
43 42 Armenia                15626
44 44 Latvia                 14241
45 45 Faroe Islands          13970
46 46 FYR Macedonia          13771
47 48 Moldova                13290
48 47 Kazakhstan             13191
49 49 Luxembourg             12371
50 50 Liechtenstein          11250
51 51 Malta                  10650
52 53 Andorra                10440
53 52 Kosovo                 10250
54 54 San Marino              8590
55 55 Gibraltar               8125

League A

Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, France
Pot 2: Spain, Italy, England, Switzerland
Pot 3: Poland, Russia, Croatia, Iceland

League B

Pot 1: Austria, Netherlands, Slovakia, Sweden
Pot 2: Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Wales, Republic of Ireland
Pot 3: Turkey, Northern Ireland, Czech Republic, Hungary
League C

Pot 1: Slovenia, Romania, Denmark, Albania
Pot 2: Greece, Israel, Scotland, Montenegro
Pot 3: Serbia, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus
Pot 4: Lithuania, Finland, Belarus

League D

Pot 1: Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Armenia
Pot 2: Latvia, Faroe Islands, FYR Macedonia, Moldova
Pot 3: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malta
Pot 4: Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

4 comments:

  1. I'm not sure that World Cup host - Russia - will be really in League A. Each football site gives different information on that question. For example, please look at that photo:
    https://twitter.com/Maciej_Sawicki/status/874586807664562176/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fpulsembed.eu%2Fp2em%2FB1RJwo1X-%2F

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It depends on methodology used for interim ranking. This site uses the one that is in favour of Russia, because all the points of remaining matches of other teams are counted as zeros - so Russia's points will remain the same, and other teams will gather more for sure. Uefa calculate differrently - they include only played matches, therefore in that ranking Russia is 15th, which is more accurate. It is almost clear that Russia won't have enough points for league A, unless their direct rivals Slovakia, Sweden, Iceland begin to lose and Netherlands, Ukraine, Bosnia and some other teams don't improve.

      Delete
  2. Peeotreck, the photo shows the current UEFA NT-ranking. Edgar presents a prediction of this ranking with all remaining qualifying matches regarded as losses. After the conclusion of the UEFA qualifying campaign in October both rankings should be the same.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What will UEFA do when the WC qualifying comes and they need to allocate only 13 spots for the entire confederation with this system? Will it be only 10 berths through normal qualifying route, with only group winners being awarded a berth, and each one of the remaining three (and it should be four according to the system, clearly something doesn't feel right) being allocated to an UNL division? This way there's a big chance that UEFA will end up preventing a considerably strong team from League A from reaching the World Cup, which would have lost the play-off for their division and narrowly missing out in the normal qualifiers (and actually it could happen even to a powerhouse like Italy or England, as in the worst case scenario they'd need just to be a little unlucky for the disaster of finishing second in their qualifying group and losing the play-off against possibly a very strong League A opposition). And that would be done in exchange of giving a World Cup ticket to the likes of Azerbaijan, Estonia or even Luxembourg, teams which are far from standing a realistic chance of reaching the knockout stage of a tournament on this level and probably would be serious candidates of finishing with one of the worst records ever in World Cup history. Is that really what UEFA wants? Did they even think about such weird things that could happen because of their qualifying system? Or will they do something different about that and I'm missing some detail?

    ReplyDelete