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Friday, November 17, 2017

FIFA Ranking: November 2017 final preview

One match left: Fiji - Estonia. The visitors can't stop collecting flags.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 November. India vs. Macau was not included in the October calculation, but I expect it to be included in the November edition.


This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank

Estonia 394 407 89 84
Fiji 93 141 177 155

In the table below I've used the minimum points.

Best movers:

18 - Korea DPR
13 - Lebanon
11 - Burkina Faso, Indonesia

Worst movers:

-22 - Laos
-19 - Chad
-16 - Israel

Best movers in the top 50:

11 - Burkina Faso
10 - Austria
9 - Senegal

Worst movers in the top 50:

-11 - Japan
-9 - Turkey, Nigeria
-7 - Bulgaria, Panama

Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Senegal (23 - 26 in June 2004)
Palestine (82 - 84 in October 2017)
Luxembourg (84 - 93 in October 2017)
Chinese Taipei (135 - 143 in October 2017)

Two will return to their worst ever placing:

Israel (98 - 98 in September 2016)
Malaysia (at most 174 - 174 in May 2016)

I suspect the FIFA ranking consultant left Malaysia for greener pastures :)

Three will drop to new lows.

Lithuania (148 - 145 in October 2017)
Kuwait (188 - 186 in October 2017)
Sri Lanka (200 - 198 in October 2017)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Lebanon (at least 87 - 85 in December 1998) - 18 years and 11 months
Turkmenistan (112 - 112 in November 2005) - 12 years
Morocco (40 - 37 in September 2008) - 9 years and 2 months
Djibouti (183 - 182 in September 2008) - 9 years and 2 months
Denmark (12 - 10 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months
Paraguay (30 - 29 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months
Iraq (79 - 78 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months


Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Botswana (150 - 153 in December 2001) - 15 years and 11 months
Uruguay (21 - 21 in February 2010) - 7 years and 9 months
Slovenia (69 - 73 in October 2008) - 9 years and 1 month
Ecuador (71 - 72 in September 2010) - 7 years and 2 months
Uzbekistan (80 - 82 in August 2011) - 6 years and 3 months
Equatorial Guinea (145 - 151 in January 2012) - 5 years and 10 months
Laos (184 - 193 in October 2012) - 5 years and 1 month

Cambodia will be ranked above Malaysia for the first time ever.
Lebanon, Luxembourg and Palestine will be ranked above Israel for the first time ever.
Denmark will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 17 years and 7 months.

November 2017 rank - Team - November 2017 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Germany 1602 0 -29
2 Brazil 1483 0 -136
3 Portugal 1358 0 -88
4 Argentina 1348 0 -97
5 Belgium 1325 0 -8
6 Spain 1231 2 13
7 Poland 1209 -1 -114
8 Switzerland 1190 3 56
9 France 1183 -2 -43
10 Chile 1162 -1 -11
11 Peru 1128 -1 -32
12 Denmark 1099 7 98
13 Colombia 1078 0 -17
14 Italy 1052 1 -14
15 England 1047 -3 -69
16 Mexico 1032 0 -28
17 Croatia 1018 1 5
18 Sweden 998 7 126
19 Wales 985 -5 -87
20 Netherlands 952 0 21
21 Uruguay 924 -4 -110
22 Iceland 910 -1 -10
23 Senegal 884 9 69
24 Northern Ireland 867 -1 -22
24 USA 867 3 24
26 Costa Rica 850 -4 -64
27 Tunisia 838 1 4
28 Slovakia 817 -4 -68
29 Austria 815 10 70
30 Paraguay 812 6 62
31 Egypt 805 -1 -13
32 Iran 798 2 14
32 Republic of Ireland 798 -6 -68
32 Scotland 798 -3 -23
35 Ukraine 781 -5 -37
36 Congo DR 764 -1 13
37 Serbia 756 1 8
38 Bosnia and Herzegovina 753 2 9
39 Australia 747 4 33
40 Morocco 738 8 58
41 Romania 737 4 32
42 Turkey 735 -9 -72
43 Bulgaria 719 -7 -31
44 Burkina Faso 705 11 66
45 Cameroon 696 -3 -22
46 Montenegro 681 8 41
47 Greece 680 0 -2
48 Czech Republic 677 -2 -22
49 Bolivia 674 1 10
50 Nigeria 671 -9 -50
51 Ghana 657 1 6
52 Venezuela 639 -1 -24
53 Hungary 630 0 -12
54 Jamaica 625 5 11
55 Japan 623 -11 -88
56 Panama 621 -7 -49
57 Haiti 607 -1 -20
58 Norway 573 0 -47
59 Korea Republic 563 3 -25
60 China PR 561 -3 -65
61 Côte d'Ivoire 557 0 -43
62 Albania 553 9 55
63 Saudi Arabia 539 0 -37
64 Algeria 537 3 -3
65 Russia 534 0 -29
66 Guinea 532 0 -20
67 Finland 531 7 58
68 Cape Verde Islands 530 -4 -38
69 Slovenia 522 -1 -2
70 Honduras 521 -1 11
71 Ecuador 508 -11 -100
72 Mali 493 0 5
73 United Arab Emirates 474 -1 -14
74 Uganda 471 -4 -32
75 Zambia 449 2 -1
76 FYR Macedonia 446 9 36
77 Libya 442 10 35
77 Syria 442 0 -8
79 Iraq 438 1 9
80 Uzbekistan 437 -4 -33
81 South Africa 434 -7 -39
82 Benin 427 -3 -11
82 Palestine 427 2 9
84 Curaçao 407 5 5
84 Luxembourg 407 9 39
86 Lebanon 404 14 52
87 Guinea-Bissau 403 1 0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 402 -5 -17
89 Estonia 394 -9 -35
90 Armenia 383 0 -9
91 Cyprus 373 -5 -36
92 Belarus 372 -1 -19
93 Gabon 370 -1 -14
94 Canada 369 2 8
95 Faroe Islands 364 0 1
96 Congo 362 -2 -5
97 Sierra Leone 360 2 2
98 Israel 355 -16 -65
99 Mauritania 354 2 8
100 El Salvador 352 -3 -8
101 Oman 350 9 50
102 Qatar 336 -5 -24
103 Zimbabwe 323 1 -6
104 Georgia 322 3 16
105 India 320 0 -8
106 Nicaragua 315 2 12
107 Jordan 311 6 30
108 Madagascar 309 -5 -23
108 Niger 309 -2 -15
110 Mozambique 304 1 5
111 Kenya 300 -9 -45
112 Turkmenistan 292 2 13
113 St. Kitts and Nevis 291 -5 -12
114 Korea DPR 283 18 51
115 Bahrain 282 10 31
115 Kyrgyz Republic 282 5 17
117 Azerbaijan 281 -2 8
118 Philippines 280 -2 8
119 Namibia 274 10 41
120 Rwanda 269 -2 1
121 Yemen 268 -9 -29
122 New Zealand 267 0 11
123 Central African Republic 266 -4 0
123 Togo 266 1 13
125 Vietnam 265 -4 4
126 Malawi 260 -9 -11
127 Tajikistan 255 -4 0
128 Suriname 245 -3 -6
129 Guatemala 242 -1 8
130 Comoros 235 -3 -2
131 Latvia 233 -2 0
132 Thailand 230 6 5
133 Swaziland 225 7 6
134 Liberia 224 1 -6
135 Chinese Taipei 221 8 21
136 Kazakhstan 220 -3 -11
137 Sudan 219 4 1
138 Burundi 216 -9 -17
139 Andorra 215 5 24
140 Antigua and Barbuda 209 -4 -18
141 Angola 201 -2 -22
142 Tanzania 193 -6 -34
143 Hong Kong 189 -1 -22
144 Lesotho 188 2 -1
145 Equatorial Guinea 187 -12 -44
145 Ethiopia 187 6 12
147 Afghanistan 181 7 13
148 Lithuania 179 -3 -11
148 Solomon Islands 179 4 6
150 Botswana 176 -3 -9
150 Myanmar 176 5 10
152 South Sudan 172 1 0
153 Tahiti 149 -5 -32
154 Barbados 144 6 16
154 Indonesia 144 11 27
156 New Caledonia 139 -6 -38
157 Belize 135 4 10
157 Maldives 135 -1 -9
159 Mauritius 134 -1 -3
160 Grenada 132 -3 -9
161 Papua New Guinea 126 -2 -4
162 Dominican Republic 121 1 0
163 Gambia 120 1 0
164 Guyana 117 1 0
165 Puerto Rico 112 2 0
166 Dominica 111 3 0
166 Moldova 111 1 -1
168 Chad 110 -19 -68
169 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 99 3 -5
170 Cambodia 98 0 -12
170 Cuba 98 9 15
170 Nepal 98 6 4
170 Singapore 98 3 -2
174 Kosovo 97 9 30
174 Malaysia 97 -4 -13
174 St. Lucia 97 0 0
177 São Tomé e Príncipe 94 -1 0
178 Fiji 93 -3 -2
179 Aruba 92 -1 0
180 Bermuda 72 1 0
181 Malta 66 1 -3
182 Macau 65 -2 -15
183 Djibouti 64 2 0
184 Laos 62 -22 -60
185 Bhutan 55 5 5
185 Vanuatu 55 3 4
187 Liechtenstein 54 0 0
188 Kuwait 52 -2 -6
189 Seychelles 51 -1 0
190 Brunei Darussalam 45 -6 -20
191 Guam 43 0 -3
192 American Samoa 38 1 0
192 Bangladesh 38 4 5
192 Cook Islands 38 1 0
192 Samoa 38 1 0
196 Timor-Leste 32 -4 -10
197 US Virgin Islands 26 2 0
198 Montserrat 20 2 0
199 Mongolia 17 -2 -13
200 Sri Lanka 16 -2 -11
201 Pakistan 15 0 0
202 Cayman Islands 13 0 0
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 0 0
204 San Marino 11 0 1
205 British Virgin Islands 6 0 0
206 Anguilla 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Gibraltar 0 0 0
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

17 comments:

  1. I think you've made a mistake there saying Uruguay are returning to their highest ranking in recent times - they were second as recently as 2011.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those are actually worst ranking in the last couple of years. The lists should be switched. Will fix it. Thank you!

      Delete
    2. No worries - always enjoy the site, keep up the good work!

      Delete
  2. can you tell us, how the seedings would have looked like in october, if only competitive matches would have been considered?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When only taking non-friendlies into account for the October 2017 ranking these would've been the pots for the World Cup 2018 draw:

      pot 1:
      Russia (82)
      Germany (1)
      Brazil (2)
      Portugal (3)
      Argentina (4)
      Belgium (5)
      Poland (6)
      Spain (7) (is pot 2)

      France (9) (is pot 1)
      England (10)
      Switzerland (11)
      Iceland (12) (is pot 3)
      Colombia (13)
      Croatia (15)
      Mexico (16)
      Uruguay (17)

      Peru (18) (is pot 2)
      Denmark (19)
      Tunisia (22)
      Costa Rica (25)
      Iran (27)
      Sweden (28)
      Senegal (31)
      Egypt (33)

      Serbia (34)
      Japan (35)
      Australia (41)
      Panama (43)
      Nigeria (49)
      Korea Republic (55)
      Morocco (57)
      Saudi Arabia (65)

      Hardly any difference: Spain instead of France in pot 1 and Iceland instead of Peru in pot 2.

      Delete
    2. Would Poland switch pots with Spain in case they had scheduled friendlies on dates that were available to them in the highest yielding timeframe?

      Instead of three friendlies Poland only played one. I believe that had Poland lost two more friendlies you can deduct 158 points. Then Poland would have 1165 points (1164.91 according to my calculation) and be ranked 10th, below Spain and Chile, on the all important October rankings.

      Can you help fill in the other scenarios? E.g. in case of a loss and a draw what would be the highest ranked team Poland can get a draw from yet still fall short of Spain's 1218 points?

      Delete
  3. Could you do this for 2018:

    http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/03/applying-2026-allocations-to-2014-world.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. We can conclude now that the rescheduling of the publishing date of the all important October 2017 ranking from originally October 19th to October 16th (to accommodate the UEFA play-offs draw on October 17th) was of no influence whatsoever on the pot-distribution of the World Cup draw.
    Of the qualified countries only Senegal and Egypt switched ranking places but both remained safely in pot 3.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Although I like the idea of FIFA changing their policy and basing ALL 4 pots on world rankings, I actually think the old system would produce a similar, if not better, balance on this occasion.
    Let's assume they would have put the 8 "unseeded" UEFA teams in one pot, and Africa/Conmebol in another, with Concacaf/Asia in the remaining pot. With the exception of Mexico and perhaps Costa Rica, this is the weak pot. The 5 African teams seem reasonably well matched, as do the unseeded Conmebol teams, so this balances that pot nicely.
    And, with the exception of Spain, there probably isn't that much too choose between the unseeded UEFA teams.
    As it is, we can probably expect at least one "Group Of Death" for whoever draws Nigeria or Serbia from Pot 4. Neither of these teams are remotely among the weakest 8 of the qualifiers.
    The problem, as ever, is the FIFA rankings!

    ReplyDelete
  6. BTW, Estonia will also visit Vanuatu and New Caledonia. What an impressive collection of flags theirs is going to be.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Edgar,

    thank you for the enormous work you do! I saw from the 2012 flag collecting post that you made the ranking about which country has played most opponents in the world. Saudi Arabia and Korea Republic were first with 106 opponents.

    Do you have an updated top for that? I counted that Estonia should have now some 89 countries.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 89 in 3 days time.

      Saudi Arabia 112 611
      Korea Republic 111 880
      China PR 108 550
      Egypt 108 649
      Iran 105 521
      Japan 104 639
      Morocco 100 523
      Tunisia 100 565
      Cameroon 95 475
      South Africa 91 383
      Australia 91 500

      Delete
  8. can u tell me about meaning this words "I suspect the FIFA ranking consultant left Malaysia for greener pastures :)" ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FAM announced in July they hired a FIFA ranking consultant and yet they returned to their worst ever ranking.

      Delete
  9. Fun fact: The 2018 World Cup will be opened by the two lowest-ranked teams participating: Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Edgar - will you be doing a World Cup simulation now that groups have been drawn or will it be closer to the tournament ??

    ReplyDelete