Saturday, October 16, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (October 2021)

The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.


UEFA


First the group stage of the qualification for the World Cup. The teams are ordered by their average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

88,10

11,90

0,00

0,00

0,00

Serbia

11,90

88,10

0,00

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

52,54

47,46

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

47,46

52,54

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

54,10

40,55

5,35

0,00

0,00

Sweden

45,90

53,68

0,42

0,00

0,00

Greece

0,00

5,77

94,23

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

78,87

21,13

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

21,13

78,87

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

76,67

23,33

0,00

0,00

0,00

Switzerland

23,33

76,67

0,00

0,00

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

73,20

20,81

5,99

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

26,80

73,20

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

5,99

94,01

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

99,87

0,13

0,00

0,00

0,00

Ukraine

0,01

40,83

42,38

16,78

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,04

38,97

29,49

31,50

0,00

Finland

0,08

20,07

28,13

51,72

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

99,82

0,18

0,00

0,00

0,00

Wales

0,18

53,33

46,49

0,00

0,00

Czech Republic

0,00

46,49

53,51

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

91,28

8,72

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

8,72

91,28

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Scotland

0,00

95,41

4,59

0,00

0,00

0,00

Israel

0,00

4,59

73,76

21,65

0,00

0,00

Austria

0,00

0,00

21,65

78,35

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

95,00

5,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

5,00

95,00

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

87,20

10,52

2,28

0,00

0,00

0,00

Norway

12,24

53,14

34,62

0,00

0,00

0,00

Turkey

0,56

36,34

63,06

0,04

0,00

0,00

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,04

99,80

0,16

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,16

99,75

0,09

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,09

99,91

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

52,93

47,07

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Russia

47,07

52,93

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

68,01

31,82

0,17

0,00

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

31,99

67,91

0,10

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,19

76,56

23,25

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,08

23,17

76,75

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

99,48

0,52

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Poland

0,52

98,53

0,93

0,02

0,00

0,00

Albania

0,00

0,93

98,17

0,90

0,00

0,00

Hungary

0,00

0,02

0,90

99,08

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Romania

0,00

83,35

14,81

1,82

0,02

0,00

North Macedonia

0,00

11,45

51,18

34,79

2,58

0,00

Armenia

0,00

5,11

33,13

59,36

2,40

0,00

Iceland

0,00

0,09

0,88

4,03

95,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00



Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Wales

99,82

53,33

46,49

39,85

59,97

39,92

Poland

98,53

98,53

0,00

87,89

10,64

89,20

Austria

97,61

0,00

97,61

0,00

97,61

0,00

Czech Republic

97,04

46,49

50,55

17,62

79,42

18,16

Scotland

95,41

95,41

0,00

39,26

56,15

41,15

Serbia

88,10

88,10

0,00

88,10

0,00

100,00

Romania

83,35

83,35

0,00

0,02

83,33

0,02

Switzerland

76,67

76,67

0,00

75,42

1,25

98,37

Sweden

53,68

53,68

0,00

52,72

0,96

98,21

Norway

53,14

53,14

0,00

13,97

39,17

26,29

Russia

52,93

52,93

0,00

48,40

4,53

91,44

Croatia

47,07

47,07

0,00

29,70

17,37

63,10

Spain

45,90

40,55

5,35

38,00

7,90

82,79

Ukraine

40,83

40,83

0,00

0,00

40,83

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

38,97

38,97

0,00

0,02

38,95

0,05

Turkey

36,34

36,34

0,00

20,31

16,03

55,89

Italy

23,33

23,33

0,00

22,76

0,57

97,56

Finland

20,07

20,07

0,00

0,08

19,99

0,40

Portugal

11,90

11,90

0,00

11,90

0,00

100,00

North Macedonia

11,45

11,45

0,00

0,00

11,45

0,00

Netherlands

10,52

10,52

0,00

8,05

2,47

76,52

Greece

5,77

5,77

0,00

4,99

0,78

86,48

Armenia

5,11

5,11

0,00

0,02

5,09

0,39

Israel

4,59

4,59

0,00

0,00

4,59

0,00

Albania

0,93

0,93

0,00

0,22

0,71

23,66

England

0,52

0,52

0,00

0,52

0,00

100,00

Belgium

0,18

0,18

0,00

0,18

0,00

100,00

France

0,13

0,13

0,00

0,00

0,13

0,00

Iceland

0,09

0,09

0,00

0,00

0,09

0,00

Hungary

0,02

0,02

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,00

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Germany

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Denmark

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Poland

72,67

[73,75]

13,75

Serbia

70,34

[79,84]

26,12

Switzerland

67,05

[87,45]

13,11

Wales

47,21

[47,30]

4,72

Sweden

45,17

[84,15]

10,91

Spain

40,08

[87,32]

12,71

Russia

37,54

[70,92]

-3,44

Czech Republic

35,62

[36,71]

-5,07

Scotland

31,15

[32,65]

2,94

Croatia

28,60

[60,76]

14,29

Italy

21,79

[93,40]

8,38

Norway

17,96

[33,80]

-9,49

Turkey

17,15

[47,19]

-9,40

Austria

14,33

[14,68]

-5,76

Portugal

10,80

[90,76]

3,32

Romania

9,99

[11,99]

-15,49

Ukraine

9,81

[24,03]

-7,63

Netherlands

7,96

[75,67]

-3,35

Bosnia-Herzegovina

5,21

[13,37]

1,48

Finland

3,44

[17,14]

-5,60

Greece

3,38

[58,58]

0,20

North Macedonia

0,90

[7,86]

-4,40

Israel

0,51

[11,11]

-17,07

England

0,44

[84,62]

0,28

Armenia

0,38

[7,44]

-6,48

Albania

0,23

[24,73]

-3,26

Belgium

0,18

[100,00]

0,11

France

0,09

[69,23]

-1,77

Iceland

0,02

[22,22]

-0,13

Hungary

0,00

[0,00]

-6,04

Slovakia

0,00

[0,00]

-4,15

Slovenia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,68

Germany

0,00

[0,00]

-1,28

Northern Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,40

Luxembourg

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Montenegro

0,00

[0,00]

-0,14

Denmark

0,00

[0,00]

-0,05

Bulgaria

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Kosovo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,03

Belarus

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Switzerland

41,16

[61,39]

5,85

Poland

31,07

[42,75]

2,96

Spain

30,72

[76,65]

10,63

Serbia

30,72

[43,67]

9,21

Sweden

24,62

[54,51]

4,20

Wales

24,31

[51,49]

0,53

Czech Republic

17,87

[50,17]

-4,68

Italy

17,07

[78,34]

6,50

Russia

15,21

[40,52]

-1,32

Croatia

13,73

[48,01]

6,30

Scotland

9,73

[31,24]

-0,09

Portugal

7,64

[70,74]

2,00

Norway

7,18

[39,98]

-4,93

Turkey

6,21

[36,21]

-4,57

Austria

4,95

[34,54]

-2,80

Ukraine

4,89

[49,85]

-4,22

Netherlands

4,60

[57,79]

-2,35

Romania

3,06

[30,63]

-5,12

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,84

[35,32]

0,58

Finland

1,33

[38,66]

-2,59

Greece

1,14

[33,73]

-0,24

England

0,29

[65,91]

0,22

Israel

0,15

[29,41]

-5,56

Belgium

0,15

[83,33]

0,10

North Macedonia

0,14

[15,56]

-1,08

Armenia

0,10

[26,32]

-1,63

France

0,07

[77,78]

-1,37

Albania

0,04

[17,39]

-1,00

Iceland

0,01

[50,00]

-0,04

Hungary

0,00

[0,00]

-2,45

Slovakia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,51

Germany

0,00

[0,00]

-0,73

Slovenia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,51

Northern Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,17

Denmark

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Luxembourg

0,00

[0,00]

-0,03

Montenegro

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Kosovo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Bulgaria

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01

Republic of Ireland

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Belarus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Georgia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Cyprus

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Estonia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Latvia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,01

Germany

100,00

0,00

100,00

1,09

Belgium

99,82

0,15

99,97

-0,01

France

99,87

0,07

99,94

0,88

England

99,48

0,29

99,77

-0,10

Portugal

88,10

7,64

95,74

-0,76

Italy

76,67

17,07

93,74

0,12

Netherlands

87,20

4,60

91,80

0,84

Spain

54,10

30,72

84,82

2,67

Sweden

45,90

24,62

70,52

13,80

Croatia

52,93

13,73

66,66

-20,01

Switzerland

23,33

41,16

64,49

12,33

Russia

47,07

15,21

62,28

25,71

Serbia

11,90

30,72

42,62

11,98

Poland

0,52

31,07

31,59

3,30

Wales

0,18

24,31

24,49

0,64

Norway

12,24

7,18

19,42

-3,10

Czech Republic

0,00

17,87

17,87

-4,68

Scotland

0,00

9,73

9,73

-0,13

Turkey

0,56

6,21

6,77

-9,55

Austria

0,00

4,95

4,95

-2,80

Ukraine

0,01

4,89

4,90

-4,25

Romania

0,00

3,06

3,06

-6,39

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,04

1,84

1,88

0,53

Finland

0,08

1,33

1,41

-4,76

Greece

0,00

1,14

1,14

-1,88

Israel

0,00

0,15

0,15

-5,57

North Macedonia

0,00

0,14

0,14

-1,19

Armenia

0,00

0,10

0,10

-2,07

Albania

0,00

0,04

0,04

-1,01

Iceland

0,00

0,01

0,01

-0,04

Hungary

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,46

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,19

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,55

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,27

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,06

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



There's in March also a play-out involving the four group numbers 4 in league C of the UEFA Nations League 2020 to decide which two teams remain in league C and which two teams relegate to league D for the next version of the UNL These play-outs are played as two home-and-away play-offs:

To win the play-out:

Estonia

77,81

Kazakhstan

58,88

Moldova

41,12

Cyprus

22,19



CAF

First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

90,29

9,71

0,00

0,00

Burkina Faso

9,71

90,29

0,00

0,00

Niger

0,00

0,00

99,58

0,42

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,42

99,58

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

97,37

2,60

0,03

0,00

Equatorial Guinea

2,62

80,39

16,79

0,20

Zambia

0,01

13,06

62,87

24,06

Mauritania

0,00

3,95

20,31

75,74

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Nigeria

88,26

11,18

0,56

0,00

Cape Verde Islands

11,72

76,30

10,92

1,06

Liberia

0,00

3,87

56,14

39,99

Central African Republic

0,02

8,65

32,38

58,95

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cote d'Ivoire

69,52

30,48

0,00

0,00

Cameroon

30,48

69,34

0,18

0,00

Malawi

0,00

0,18

62,74

37,08

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

37,08

62,92

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Mali

84,72

15,28

0,00

0,00

Uganda

15,28

82,16

2,56

0,00

Kenya

0,00

2,56

71,63

25,81

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

25,81

74,19

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

98,41

1,59

0,00

0,00

Libya

0,71

62,87

18,23

18,19

Gabon

0,88

26,02

55,66

17,44

Angola

0,00

9,52

26,11

64,37

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

South Africa

53,51

46,49

0,00

0,00

Ghana

46,49

53,05

0,46

0,00

Ethiopia

0,00

0,46

62,33

37,21

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

37,21

62,79

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Namibia

0,00

70,20

14,63

15,17

Togo

0,00

24,30

50,80

24,90

Congo

0,00

5,50

34,57

59,93

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Morocco

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

61,63

23,05

15,32

Guinea

0,00

27,85

53,90

18,25

Sudan

0,00

10,52

23,05

66,43

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Benin

43,08

36,90

14,90

5,12

Tanzania

31,55

34,26

29,82

4,37

Congo DR

24,72

22,43

42,84

10,01

Madagascar

0,65

6,41

12,44

80,50



Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2).

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

4,75

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

18,05

Egypt

18,77

79,64

19,07

98,41

30,06

Tunisia

97,37

0,00

100,00

97,37

4,79

Algeria

90,29

0,00

100,00

90,29

6,62

Nigeria

87,88

0,38

99,57

88,26

-7,13

Mali

0,15

84,57

0,18

84,72

14,18

Cote d'Ivoire

2,76

66,76

3,97

69,52

3,45

South Africa

0,00

53,51

0,00

53,51

8,70

Ghana

2,04

44,45

4,39

46,49

0,81

Benin

0,00

43,08

0,00

43,08

-7,52

Tanzania

0,00

31,55

0,00

31,55

10,48

Cameroon

0,61

29,87

2,00

30,48

0,46

Congo DR

0,00

24,72

0,00

24,72

-1,34

Uganda

0,00

15,28

0,00

15,28

-1,59

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

11,72

0,00

11,72

10,20

Burkina Faso

0,13

9,58

1,34

9,71

-6,45

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

2,62

0,00

2,62

0,59

Gabon

0,00

0,88

0,00

0,88

-3,37

Libya

0,00

0,71

0,00

0,71

-25,60

Madagascar

0,00

0,65

0,00

0,65

-1,62

Central African Republic

0,00

0,02

0,00

0,02

-0,07

Zambia

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,01

-4,96

Kenya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,62

Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,40

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-8,23

Ethiopia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-7,48

Namibia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-4,03

Malawi

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,09

Liberia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,00

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,97

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,03

Angola

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,09

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,82

Congo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,62

Sudan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Mauritania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Niger

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,17

Togo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


Hosam notifies that the draw for the third round will be on December 18th. That could imply that the December ranking (published December 16th) could be used to seed this draw. In December the Arab Cup will be played and several North African teams participate. This might lead to other seeding rankings, although this tournament is expected to be a friendly tournament for ranking calculation purposes, so match points exchanged in the matches in this tournament will be quite low.

I've made a second set of simulations to determine the effect of using the December ranking as seeding ranking for the third round draw:

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

4,75

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

18,05

Egypt

19,83

78,58

20,15

98,41

30,06

Tunisia

97,37

0,00

100,00

97,37

4,79

Algeria

90,29

0,00

100,00

90,29

6,62

Nigeria

86,78

1,48

98,32

88,26

-7,13

Mali

0,14

84,58

0,17

84,72

14,18

Cote d'Ivoire

2,57

66,95

3,70

69,52

3,45

South Africa

0,00

53,51

0,00

53,51

8,70

Ghana

1,76

44,73

3,79

46,49

0,81

Benin

0,00

43,08

0,00

43,08

-7,52

Tanzania

0,00

31,55

0,00

31,55

10,48

Cameroon

1,11

29,37

3,64

30,48

0,46

Congo DR

0,00

24,72

0,00

24,72

-1,34

Uganda

0,00

15,28

0,00

15,28

-1,59

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

11,72

0,00

11,72

10,20

Burkina Faso

0,15

9,56

1,54

9,71

-6,45

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

2,62

0,00

2,62

0,59

Gabon

0,00

0,88

0,00

0,88

-3,37

Libya

0,00

0,71

0,00

0,71

-25,60

Madagascar

0,00

0,65

0,00

0,65

-1,62

Central African Republic

0,00

0,02

0,00

0,02

-0,07

Zambia

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,01

-4,96

Kenya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,62

Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,40

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-8,23

Ethiopia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-7,48

Namibia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-4,03

Malawi

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,09

Liberia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,00

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,97

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,03

Angola

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,09

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,82

Congo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,62

Sudan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Mauritania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,42

Niger

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,17

Togo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00


You can see that f.i. Egypt has in that case a probability of 20% to be seeded in the draw, in comparison with 19% when using the November ranking. As expected the effect on the seeding is only marginal.


I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

qualify

diff Q

Senegal

67,50

[67,50]

1,68

Morocco

66,97

[66,97]

11,69

Algeria

65,57

[72,62]

1,93

Tunisia

60,73

[62,37]

0,33

Nigeria

52,67

[59,68]

-9,71

Egypt

42,48

[43,17]

10,89

Cote d'Ivoire

32,79

[47,17]

0,46

Mali

30,80

[36,36]

6,43

Ghana

18,85

[40,55]

-0,91

South Africa

17,97

[33,58]

3,13

Cameroon

12,06

[39,57]

-0,90

Benin

9,41

[21,84]

-3,37

Congo DR

6,04

[24,43]

-1,41

Tanzania

4,78

[15,15]

1,36

Uganda

3,93

[25,72]

-0,70

Burkina Faso

3,62

[37,28]

-3,32

Cape Verde Islands

2,76

[23,55]

2,38

Equatorial Guinea

0,60

[22,90]

0,16

Gabon

0,23

[26,14]

-0,91

Madagascar

0,12

[18,46]

-0,34

Libya

0,11

[15,49]

-5,06

Central African Republic

0,01

[50,00]

-0,01

Guinea

0,00

[0,00]

-2,72

Kenya

0,00

[0,00]

-2,31

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

[0,00]

-1,92

Ethiopia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,45

Zambia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,39

Namibia

0,00

[0,00]

-1,06

Liberia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,66

Rwanda

0,00

[0,00]

-0,56

Malawi

0,00

[0,00]

-0,44

Zimbabwe

0,00

[0,00]

-0,41

Angola

0,00

[0,00]

-0,29

Congo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,18

Mauritania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,13

Sudan

0,00

[0,00]

-0,11

Mozambique

0,00

[0,00]

-0,11

Niger

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Togo

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD9):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

100,00

0,02

0,00

-0,01

Argentina

99,89

1,30

0,11

-0,95

Uruguay

70,58

-7,54

16,73

4,10

Colombia

66,84

5,33

21,64

0,97

Ecuador

40,84

9,38

29,75

4,78

Chile

10,45

5,93

14,54

5,90

Peru

7,64

-2,45

10,28

-3,06

Paraguay

2,62

-12,54

4,84

-12,23

Bolivia

1,06

0,90

1,90

1,27

Venezuela

0,08

-0,33

0,21

-0,77



CONCACAF

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

Mexico

70,41

21,16

7,44

0,84

0,14

0,01

0,00

0,00

USA

20,13

42,80

28,51

6,61

1,53

0,32

0,09

0,01

Canada

9,14

30,84

39,72

13,33

4,57

1,81

0,51

0,08

Panama

0,20

2,75

12,18

35,49

24,53

14,87

7,34

2,64

Costa Rica

0,09

1,39

6,43

18,85

27,35

25,22

13,99

6,68

Jamaica

0,03

0,88

4,24

16,16

23,81

26,19

18,62

10,07

El Salvador

0,00

0,17

1,00

5,09

10,68

18,07

30,95

34,04

Honduras

0,00

0,01

0,48

3,63

7,39

13,51

28,50

46,48



The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 4. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD3):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Mexico

99,01

2,05

0,84

-1,36

USA

91,44

-0,50

6,61

1,09

Canada

79,70

16,70

13,33

-5,55

Panama

15,13

-5,44

35,49

9,96

Costa Rica

7,91

-2,53

18,85

3,27

Jamaica

5,15

1,20

16,16

9,46

El Salvador

1,17

-2,77

5,09

-3,96

Honduras

0,49

-8,71

3,63

-12,91



AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

78,55

20,72

0,64

0,08

0,01

0,00

Korea Republic

20,95

71,03

6,40

1,28

0,32

0,02

Iraq

0,13

4,06

42,81

30,36

15,22

7,42

Lebanon

0,36

3,08

34,44

34,45

20,34

7,33

United Arab Emirates

0,01

0,90

10,47

22,66

41,79

24,17

Syria

0,00

0,21

5,24

11,17

22,32

61,06

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Australia

50,95

29,39

15,48

4,02

0,16

0,00

Saudi Arabia

35,61

33,25

23,96

7,05

0,13

0,00

Japan

11,59

30,26

40,85

15,36

1,74

0,20

Oman

1,80

6,69

17,00

54,39

17,72

2,40

China PR

0,05

0,40

2,47

17,09

58,62

21,37

Vietnam

0,00

0,01

0,24

2,09

21,63

76,03



To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

qualify

diff Q

win

diff win

Iraq

42,81

-2,25

27,77

[64,87]

-4,55

Japan

40,85

13,65

23,77

[58,19]

10,61

Lebanon

34,44

25,28

10,93

[31,74]

7,48

Saudi Arabia

23,96

-6,83

9,57

[39,94]

0,31

Oman

17,00

-2,11

5,46

[32,12]

1,51

Australia

15,48

2,02

8,76

[56,59]

3,03

United Arab Emirates

10,47

-3,50

5,11

[48,81]

-2,25

Korea Republic

6,40

-13,02

4,98

[77,81]

-10,64

Syria

5,24

-3,99

2,34

[44,66]

-2,18

China PR

2,47

-3,72

0,72

[29,15]

-0,64

Iran

0,64

-2,52

0,52

[81,25]

-2,22

Vietnam

0,24

-3,01

0,07

[29,17]

-0,46



To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group. In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team

WC

diff

Iran

99,27

2,97

Korea Republic

91,98

18,05

Australia

80,34

-0,78

Saudi Arabia

68,86

18,67

Japan

41,85

-14,09

Oman

8,49

-1,46

Iraq

4,19

-17,16

Lebanon

3,44

1,48

United Arab Emirates

0,91

-3,33

China PR

0,45

-1,54

Syria

0,21

-2,01

Vietnam

0,01

-0,80



Pots for the final draw


These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (without IPO's of course) is given:

team

WC

pot1

pot2

pot3

pot4

Qatar

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Brazil

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Belgium

99,97

99,97

0

0

0

France

99,94

99,94

0

0

0

England

99,77

99,77

0

0

0

Argentina

99,89

96,46

3,43

0

0

Italy

93,74

93,74

0

0

0

Spain

84,82

57,44

27,38

0

0

----------------------------

Mexico

99,01

25,36

71,88

1,77

0

Portugal

95,74

24,25

71,49

0

0

Denmark

100,00

1,63

98,37

0

0

Germany

100,00

0

97,03

2,97

0

Netherlands

91,80

0,02

91,67

0,11

0

USA

91,44

1,30

72,32

17,82

0

Iran

99,27

0

0,73

96,91

1,63

Uruguay

70,58

0,09

57,33

13,16

0

----------------------------

Switzerland

64,49

0,01

63,78

0,70

0

Sweden

70,52

0

40,84

29,68

0

Colombia

66,84

0,02

46,57

20,25

0

Croatia

66,66

0

30,49

36,17

0

Korea Republic

91,98

0

0

43,34

48,64

Senegal

67,50

0

14,30

52,47

0,73

Australia

80,34

0

0

47,02

33,32

Algeria

65,57

0

3,73

54,62

7,22

----------------------------

Morocco

66,97

0

2,19

53,40

11,38

Canada

79,70

0

0

5,55

74,15

Tunisia

60,73

0

1,91

45,72

13,10

Russia

62,28

0

0

36,96

25,32

Saudi Arabia

68,86

0

0

1,00

67,86

Nigeria

52,67

0

0,10

21,43

31,14

Serbia

42,62

0

0,06

41,89

0,67

Japan

41,85

0

0,03

37,94

3,88

Egypt

42,48

0

0,03

11,40

31,05

Poland

31,59

0

0,71

30,86

0,02

Ecuador

40,84

0

0

0,77

40,07

Cote d'Ivoire

32,79

0

0,00

6,48

26,31

Wales

24,49

0

2,86

21,63

0

Mali

30,80

0

0

2,61

28,19

Czech Republic

17,87

0

0

16,77

1,10

Norway

19,42

0

0

5,96

13,46

Ghana

18,85

0

0

3,19

15,66

South Africa

17,97

0

0

0

17,97

Panama

15,13

0

0

0

15,13

Chile

10,45

0

0,45

10,00

0

Cameroon

12,06

0

0

4,19

7,87

Peru

7,64

0

0,29

7,35

0

Scotland

9,73

0

0

1,88

7,85

Benin

9,41

0

0

0

9,41

Oman

8,49

0

0

0

8,49

Costa Rica

7,91

0

0

0,75

7,16

Turkey

6,77

0

0

2,35

4,42

Ukraine

4,90

0

0,03

4,87

0

Austria

4,95

0

0

4,62

0,33

Congo DR

6,04

0

0

0

6,04

Jamaica

5,15

0

0

0,13

5,02

Tanzania

4,78

0

0

0

4,78

Iraq

4,19

0

0

0

4,19

Uganda

3,93

0

0

0

3,93

Burkina Faso

3,62

0

0

0,51

3,11

Lebanon

3,44

0

0

0

3,44

Romania

3,06

0

0

0,87

2,19

Paraguay

2,62

0

0

1,62

1,00

Cape Verde Islands

2,76

0

0

0,01

2,75

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,88

0

0

0,07

1,81

Finland

1,41

0

0

0,02

1,39

Greece

1,14

0

0

0,18

0,96

El Salvador

1,17

0

0

0

1,17

Bolivia

1,06

0

0

0

1,06

United Arab Emirates

0,91

0

0

0

0,91

Equatorial Guinea

0,60

0

0

0

0,60

Honduras

0,49

0

0

0

0,49

China PR

0,45

0

0

0

0,45

Gabon

0,23

0

0

0

0,23

Syria

0,21

0

0

0

0,21

Israel

0,15

0

0

0

0,15

North Macedonia

0,14

0

0

0

0,14

Madagascar

0,12

0

0

0

0,12

Libya

0,11

0

0

0

0,11

Armenia

0,10

0

0

0

0,10

Venezuela

0,08

0

0

0,03

0,05

Albania

0,04

0

0

0

0,04

Central African Republic

0,01

0

0

0

0,01

Iceland

0,01

0

0

0

0,01

Vietnam

0,01

0

0

0

0,01

Andorra

0,00

0

0

0

0

Angola

0,00

0

0

0

0

Azerbaijan

0,00

0

0

0

0

Belarus

0,00

0

0

0

0

Bulgaria

0,00

0

0

0

0

Comoros

0,00

0

0

0

0

Congo

0,00

0

0

0

0

Cyprus

0,00

0

0

0

0

Djibouti

0,00

0

0

0

0

Estonia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Ethiopia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Faroe Islands

0,00

0

0

0

0

Gambia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Georgia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Gibraltar

0,00

0

0

0

0

Guinea

0,00

0

0

0

0

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

0

0

0

0

Hungary

0,00

0

0

0

0

Kazakhstan

0,00

0

0

0

0

Kenya

0,00

0

0

0

0

Kosovo

0,00

0

0

0

0

Latvia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Liberia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Liechtenstein

0,00

0

0

0

0

Lithuania

0,00

0

0

0

0

Luxembourg

0,00

0

0

0

0

Malawi

0,00

0

0

0

0

Malta

0,00

0

0

0

0

Mauritania

0,00

0

0

0

0

Moldova

0,00

0

0

0

0

Montenegro

0,00

0

0

0

0

Mozambique

0,00

0

0

0

0

Namibia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Niger

0,00

0

0

0

0

Northern Ireland

0,00

0

0

0

0

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0

0

0

0

Rwanda

0,00

0

0

0

0

San Marino

0,00

0

0

0

0

Sierra Leone

0,00

0

0

0

0

Slovakia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Slovenia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Sudan

0,00

0

0

0

0

Togo

0,00

0

0

0

0

Zambia

0,00

0

0

0

0

Zimbabwe

0,00

0

0

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

22 comments:

  1. What are Nigeria results that can make Egypt seeded ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. For the November ranking and ignoring Arab Cup,
      Nigeria must lose 1 match and draw the other. If this is the case, they wouldn't qualify to third round.

      Delete
  2. You have forgotten to withdraw points against 6th placed team in considering seeded/unseeded in the UEFA playoffs. So you have all the teams from the 6-team groups as way to big favourites for a seed. Look at Romania f.ex. They can at best end up at 13p and a quite low GD. That's never gonna be enough to be seeded, yet they have a +60% chance here

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I hadn't forgotten to withdraw points against 6th placed team. I withdraw in the 5-team groups the points against the 5th placed team also. Of course that leads to the same effect that the numbers two from 6-team groups are overrated and occur much more frequent as seed than a number two from a 5-team group.

      Apologies and thank you for pointing that out ! The table is fixed.

      Delete
    2. Thanks. Great :)
      Did you already use the correct seed/unseed percentages for the rest of the calculation? Because otherwise I would have expected to see the overall qualification chances change a bit as well?

      Delete
  3. The Arab Cup (if considered) can be beneficial to Egypt and only if the gap between Nigeria and Egypt is further reduced next month to 5 or 6 points. It is getting complicated.

    ReplyDelete
  4. With the seeding for the final tournament will they not do as in previous tournaments and band all European teams that aren't top seed in one pot to ensure a maximum two European nations per group?

    ReplyDelete
  5. No Mike, since the draw for the World Cup 2018 in Russia all 32 teams (except the host) were seeded in 4 pots of 8, based on the FIFA ranking at the moment of the draw.
    During the draw the constraint that each group may contain a maximum of two European teams, was ensured by shifting a drawn team to the next available group in case this constraint was violated.
    For the final draw in Qatar they will follow the same procedures.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ed- how do you deal with penalty shootouts for these qualifiers in simulations? Do you weight by exp win% or just leave it a coin flip. As always- thanks so much for your work

    ReplyDelete
  7. Alex, in this case a coin flip is just a bit too random for my taste.
    A small study I made long ago of the PSO-cases in my match database showed that PSO's were in some 70% of the cases won by the strongest team (in terms of elo win expectancy of the match). So I've chosen to let that factor decide: if it's >= 0.5 then the 'home' team wins the PSO, otherwise the 'away' team wins the PSO.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Given that for the next World Cup (2028) eight AFC teams will qualify, how likely is it that the qualifying system will be the same as now, only that the eight first-placed teams in the secound round will directly go through, leaving all 2nd-placed teams eliminated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Since the gap in terms of strenght in the AFC between the top teams and the second half is big, I expect the final stage with less than 40 teams. It could be one or two preliminary stages with the final stage of 4 groups with 6 teams. Also we must not foreget that Asia should send team number 9 to the intercontinental play-off tournament. With 8 teams the easiest (but not the best) way to do that would be just to give this ticket to the best 2nd placed team. And having only 4 groups they could arrange a mini tournament for the four 3rd placed teams with one-off semis and the final.

      Delete
  9. Well, above simulation results include all AFCON 2022 matches up to and including the final and the last table shows that the first 6 African teams can all end up in pot 2. Senegal with a 14% chance, the others with small chances from a few percent to less than 1 percent.

    So I would say: yes, Senegal, Tunisia and Morocco but also Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt could get into pot 2 through the results in the AFCON 2022.

    ReplyDelete
  10. With the draw happening before the intercontinental playoffs, what do we think FIFA will do? Have the two playoff winners in Pot 4 regardless of ranking? Or in the ranking spot of the higher ranked team? Or will they scrap the rankings for pots altogether and go back to continental pots?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Personally I would like to see the two IPO's seeded according to the highest rank of the participants in each of the IPO's. Always put them in pot 4 carries the danger that f.i. Colombia/Uruguay or Japan ends up in pot 4 and thus the chance of one or two groups of death becomes almost a reality.
    I don't see FIFA going back to the continental pots. Seeding of draws for qualification and final groups is always according to the FIFA ranking, the only regulation they are adamant about.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Ed, - one last question this sunday. :-)

    Will you be opdating these very appreciated simulations between MD 9 and 10 regarding the european qualifiers?

    ReplyDelete
  13. I shall see what I can do, next Sunday.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Ed.... - another day, another question. :-)

    Which date is in YOUR OPINION most likely to be cutoff date of the world ranking for the WC draw in april?

    1. Before or after the european playoffs?
    2. Before or after the intercontinental playoffs?

    If after, - the results of the playoffs can have an impact on the final seedings. Playoff nations can successfully "jump a level" and thereby get a better seeding, - without allready qualified nations given a chance to reply, so to speak....

    The obvious example is Spain and Portugal running for 7th spot. On monday the can have swopped places and then Spain can regain 7th spot with two playoff wins with high values in march.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Most likely is that FIFA wants at least all the group matches in CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and AFC included in the seeding ranking, so I expect a seeding ranking computed after all the matches in the March window are played.
    However, as the final draw is scheduled on Friday April 1st (no joke!) and the last matches in the March window are played on Wednesday evening March 30th in the CONCACAF zone (which is Thursday night already in Europe), there is just enough room to produce a final seeding ranking at noon on Thursday March 31st. Of course FIFA can establish a ranking only seconds after the last included match is finished if they want to, it's no rocket science.

    Assuming the complete OFC qualification will finally take place in the March window, the participants of the interconfederational play-offs are known at the final draw, except for Asia's number 5. But the participants for the AFC number 5 play-off (to be played in the first week of June) are known then. I prefer to have the last two WC-participants seeded, based on the highest ranking of the participants in each interconfederational play-off. For that the confederation pairing in each play-off needs to be known before the final draw takes place or, if FIFA decides to leave it very late, established as first step in the final draw itself.

    Maybe the UEFA (and CAF) play-offs shall play a role in determining the definitive seeding ranking, maybe they won't. It depends heavily on which teams are playing in the play-offs and how they will perform. Other already qualified teams of course have the opportunity to play two friendlies in March to gain maybe vital points.

    All of the above is just my two cents...

    Btw, how do you see a draw happening in April and using the seeding ranking 'after the interconfederational play-offs' which are played in the second week of June ? :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Btw, how do you see a draw happening in April and using the seeding ranking 'after the interconfederational play-offs' which are played in the second week of June ? :)

      Yeah.... - you got me on that one.... :-)

      Delete